Global Change Biology最新文献

{"title":"Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange of a Subalpine Spruce Forest in Switzerland Over 26 Years: Effects of Phenology and Contributions of Abiotic Drivers at Daily Time Scales","authors":"Luana Krebs,&nbsp;Lukas Hörtnagl,&nbsp;Liliana Scapucci,&nbsp;Mana Gharun,&nbsp;Iris Feigenwinter,&nbsp;Nina Buchmann","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70371","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70371","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change affects carbon sequestration dynamics and phenology in forests, especially in alpine and subalpine regions. Here, long-term trends in climate, net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE), net carbon uptake period (CUP_net) and their drivers were investigated, using 26 years of flux measurements in a subalpine spruce forest (CH-Dav, Switzerland; 1997 to 2022). CUP_net length, start (SOS) and end of season (EOS) were extracted from smoothed daily NEE time series. We used machine learning to determine the importance of environmental drivers on daily NEE and CUP_net. Annual mean and maximum air temperatures (T_air) increased, while soil water content (SWC) decreased significantly between 1997 and 2022. Annual C sinks increased from 1997 to 2012, leveled off between 2012 and 2015, followed by a decline. Annual NEE was strongly related to CUP_net length, SOS, and EOS. No significant trends in CUP_net, SOS, or EOS were detected, most likely indicating ecophysiological acclimation, that is, physiological adjustments to changing environmental conditions over the past 26 years. We identified 48 days with significant negative trends in mean daily NEE over the 26 years, that is, stronger net C uptake or weaker net C loss, particularly in spring and autumn, but no significant positive trends. Daylength, incoming shortwave radiation (Rg), SWC, and minimum T_air were the main drivers of daily NEE. SOS was mainly driven by daylength and T_air, EOS by daylength and Rg. Thus, the spruce forest benefited from higher temperature between autumn and spring, with higher net C uptake during favorable conditions and reduced C loss when winter photosynthesis compensated respiration. However, high summer temperatures increasingly limited NEE, suggesting adverse effects for subalpine <i>Picea abies</i> forests in the future. Our study demonstrated that identifying driver contributions to NEE dynamics at daily time scales allows better understanding of the complexity of climate change impacts on forest C dynamics.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70371","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144688103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pre-Exposure to Chemicals Increases Springtail Vulnerability to High Temperatures","authors":"Micha Wehrli,&nbsp;Jian Ge,&nbsp;Stine Slotsbo,&nbsp;Martin Holmstrup","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70374","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70374","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heat waves, posing a significant threat to ectothermic organisms. Concurrently, chemical pollution, including heavy metals and pesticides, remains a pervasive environmental stressor. This study investigates the effects of sub-lethal copper and fluazinam exposure on the thermal tolerance of the soil-dwelling springtail, <i>Folsomia candida</i>. Using a thermal death time (TDT) framework, we assessed how pre-exposure to these toxicants at two acclimation temperatures (20°C and 24°C) influenced survival under heat stress. Our findings indicate that toxicant exposure reduced heat tolerance at moderately high temperatures (32.5°C) but had negligible effects at extreme temperatures (37°C). Acclimation at 24°C mitigated the negative effects of both toxicants, suggesting an enhanced capacity for cellular homeostasis under warm conditions. Additionally, soil type influenced thermal tolerance, highlighting the importance of environmental context in multiple stressor interactions. These findings highlight the need to integrate realistic thermal exposure scenarios in ecotoxicological assessments to improve predictions of organismal vulnerability under climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70374","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144681470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Grassland Bird Species Decline With Colonial-Era Landscape Change in a Tropical Montane Ecosystem","authors":"Vijay Ramesh,&nbsp;Priyanka Hariharan,&nbsp;Pratik Rajan Gupte,&nbsp;Ashwini V. Mohan,&nbsp;V. A. Akshay,&nbsp;Amrutha Rajan,&nbsp;Chandrasekar Das,&nbsp;Ian Lockwood,&nbsp;V. V. Robin,&nbsp;Morgan W. Tingley,&nbsp;Ruth DeFries","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70358","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70358","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The impacts of colonial-era ecosystem changes on tropical biodiversity are poorly understood. We analyzed a 170-year dataset on land cover and bird observations in an Old World tropical montane landscape in the Western Ghats, India, to determine if and how historical landscape changes have impacted 85 bird species. A comparison of historical land cover and classified satellite imagery (1848–2018) revealed approximately an 80% decrease in grassland area and a concomitant increase in tea and timber plantations stemming from colonial-era policies and associated legacies of large-scale planting of cash crops and exotic woody species. We found that relative species abundances of about 90% of grassland birds have significantly declined while around 53% of forest bird species remained stable or even increased in relative abundance over the same period. Over 74% of generalist bird species have become more common over the same period, possibly due to reduced habitat specialization. Our findings show that colonial-era policies, continued postindependence, of tree planting across open natural ecosystems have resulted in severe loss of grassland habitats and a concomitant decline in the relative abundance of grassland bird species.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144681472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental Heterogeneity Imposed by Photovoltaic Array Alters Grassland Soil Microbial Communities","authors":"J. Alexander Siggers,&nbsp;Matthew A. Sturchio,&nbsp;Lillian Gordon,&nbsp;Shelby Mead,&nbsp;Melinda D. Smith,&nbsp;Alan K. Knapp","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70376","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70376","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The rapid expansion of photovoltaic (PV) energy production has generated concern over its potential ecosystem impacts. PV arrays induce unique microenvironmental conditions by altering resource availability and substantially impacting aboveground processes. However, the belowground consequences of PV development are understudied, limiting our understanding of overall ecosystem impacts. Here, we paired soil physiochemical, molecular, and functional analyses with aboveground measures to assess plant–soil–microbial responses to distinct microsites beneath a single-axis tracking PV system in a semi-arid C₃ grassland. We hypothesized that each PV microsite would harbor a unique suite of soil physiochemical properties and microbiomes. We found only subtle differences in soil organic matter and pH, corresponding with aboveground productivity patterns, but other physiochemical properties remained unchanged. However, soil microbial community structure and function differed markedly across PV microsites and from a reference grassland plot. Within the array, microbial decomposition rates were highest where plant productivity and organic matter were greatest, but surprisingly lowest where soil moisture remained elevated throughout the growing season. Overall, these findings suggest that PV arrays create disparate patterns of soil microbial community structure and function, which may feedback to influence overall ecosystem functionality. Coarse measures of soil physiochemical properties, such as total carbon, may overlook key impacts of PV development.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70376","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144681474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolutionary Implications of Trait–Fire Mismatches for Animals","authors":"Luke T. Kelly,&nbsp;Ary A. Hoffmann,&nbsp;Craig R. Nitschke,&nbsp;Juli G. Pausas,&nbsp;Olivia V. Sanderfoot,&nbsp;Morgan W. Tingley","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70368","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70368","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Human activity is changing when, where, and how fires burn, contributing to population declines of many species (Kelly et al. &lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;). Animal populations can respond to modified fire regimes by dispersing to suitable areas, adjusting traits through plastic responses such as behavioral or reproductive shifts, and adapting through evolutionary changes in their genetic make-up (Jones et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;). Evolutionary adaptation may be required when environmental conditions no longer match the traits animals have evolved, and this warrants specific attention in fire and global change research (Nimmo et al. &lt;span&gt;2021&lt;/span&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this Perspective, we build on a plant-focused application of the phenotype–environment mismatch concept, extending it to animals to understand the evolutionary and ecological consequences of altered fire regimes. Mismatches are primarily studied in the context of climate-driven changes (e.g., Petrullo et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;), but trait–fire mismatches require dedicated investigation given fire's global reach, rapid and difficult-to-predict shifts, and extensive direct and indirect impacts on animals. Our framing brings into focus the role of fitness, variation in traits within species, and selection in shaping evolutionary responses to fire. By applying this phenotypic approach to animals, we provide a framework for investigating fire-related changes across a wide range of taxa and traits.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Fire regimes have temporal and spatial attributes, including the frequency and size of recurrent fires, as well as attributes that characterize the magnitude of fires such as their intensity (Figure 1). Many animal species thrive under particular fire patterns, so changes to fire attributes can affect fitness. Fires directly influence survival and reproduction: exposure to heat and smoke can cause mortality (Santos et al. &lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;) or disrupt breeding (Krieg &lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;). Other effects on survival and reproduction are indirect, developing through post-fire shifts in biotic interactions, microclimate, and resource availability (Jones et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Ecological studies have generated important insights into fire-related traits, including behavioral, life-history, morphological, and physiological characteristics that influence fitness in fire-prone environments. A common focus is interspecific variation (between species) in fire-related traits. For example, traits such as diet, foraging location, and nesting habits help explain bird species' distributions across stages of post-fire vegetation succession (Rainsford et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;). Yet, understanding how animals are affected by shifting fire regimes requires moving beyond static trait–fire associations and considering how relevant traits themselves may evolve.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Intraspecific trait variation (within species) provides the raw material for contemporary adaptive evolution, with growing evidence of fire-related differen","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70368","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144681471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating Ecosystem Resilience From Noisy Observational Data","authors":"Mengyang Cai,&nbsp;Yao Zhang,&nbsp;Jinghao Qiu","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70370","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70370","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The resilience of an ecosystem indicates its capacity to recover from disturbances, a quality essential for maintaining ecosystem persistence under global change. Temporal autocorrelation (<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>TAC</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ mathrm{TAC} $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>) of ecosystem states has been increasingly used to measure the change of ecosystem resilience, with increasing <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>TAC</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ mathrm{TAC} $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> representing a decline in resilience and approach toward potential tipping points. However, observations of ecosystem states are inevitably embedded with noise of different kinds, and the extent to which measurement noise may affect resilience assessments remains unclear. This study employs mathematical derivation, idealized experiments, and remote sensing datasets with varying noise levels to examine the effect of measurement noise on the <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>TAC</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ mathrm{TAC} $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> calculation. Our analyses indicate that <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>TAC</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ mathrm{TAC} $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> estimates from noisy datasets are systematically lower than those from noise-free datasets, with the degree of underestimation varying with noise levels, observational frequencies, and pulse-like disturbance intensities. Specifically, higher temporal resolution of observation and greater disturbance intensity enhances the accuracy of <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>TAC</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ mathrm{TAC} $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> estimates under constant noise levels. Additionally, we highlight that temporal changes of noise and disturbance characteristics may bias the trend of <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>TAC</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ mathrm{TAC} $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>, potentially resulting in spurious early warning signals of critical transitions. Employing observations with higher temporal resolution, together with appropriate data processing techniques, can partially mitigate the influence of noise and thereby enable more accurate assessments of global ecosystem resilience.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144672885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Beyond Inorganic C: Soil Organic C as a Key Pathway for Carbon Sequestration in Enhanced Weathering","authors":"Laura Steinwidder,&nbsp;Lucilla Boito,&nbsp;Patrick J. Frings,&nbsp;Harun Niron,&nbsp;Jet Rijnders,&nbsp;Anthony de Schutter,&nbsp;Arthur Vienne,&nbsp;Sara Vicca","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70340","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70340","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Enhanced weathering, a promising CO₂ removal technique, captures CO₂ via two inorganic pathways: pedogenic carbonate formation and leaching of dissolved weathering products. Here, we look beyond those two pathways, identifying other CO₂ sinks and sources relevant for enhanced weathering. Although processes such as clay formation or organic matter decomposition could reduce the efficiency of enhanced weathering, organic matter stabilization could contribute to C storage. In a 15-month mesocosm experiment including two different types of silicates (50 t/ha basalt and 5 t/ha steel slag), the realized inorganic CO₂ removal remained negligible (below 0.12 t CO₂/ha). The majority of released base cations was sorbed to the exchangeable complex or bound in secondary minerals such as (hydr)oxides and/or aluminosilicate clays, thus, not requiring the dissolution of CO₂ for charge balance. Only a negligible minority of base cations was found in pedogenic carbonates or leachates. In comparison to the relatively low inorganic C fluxes, organic C fluxes were several orders of magnitude larger. Increases in soil CO₂ efflux due to SOM decomposition were approximately 25 times higher than the realized inorganic CO₂ removal of enhanced weathering (basalt +0.9 and slag +1.1 t CO₂/ha released over 15 months). Yet, plant C inputs likely increased in silicate-amended treatments, offsetting organic C losses. Although soil organic C stocks remained unaffected by silicate amendment, the distribution of C shifted towards more stable pools. Soil organic C was stabilized via the formation of aggregates and mineral association. Given the increased organic C inputs and the transfer of organic C to more stable soil sinks, long-term studies will be essential to quantify changes in soil organic C stocks and therefore in CO₂ removal.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144672886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction to “Glacier Shrinkage Will Accelerate Downstream Decomposition of Organic Matter and Alters Microbiome Structure and Function”","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70367","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70367","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Kohler, T. J., S. Fodelianakis, G. Michoud, et al. 2022. Glacier Shrinkage Will Accelerate Downstream Decomposition of Organic Matter and Alters Microbiome Structure and Function. <i>Global Change Biology</i> 28: 3846–3859. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16169.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70367","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144666406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mixed Evidence for Species Diversity Affecting Ecological Forecasts in Constant Versus Declining Light","authors":"Romana Limberger,&nbsp;Uriah Daugaard,&nbsp;Yves Choffat,&nbsp;Anubhav Gupta,&nbsp;Martina Jelić,&nbsp;Sabina Jyrkinen,&nbsp;Rainer M. Krug,&nbsp;Seraina Nohl,&nbsp;Frank Pennekamp,&nbsp;Sofia J. van Moorsel,&nbsp;Xue Zheng,&nbsp;Debra Zuppinger-Dingley,&nbsp;Owen L. Petchey","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70364","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70364","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accurate forecasts of ecological dynamics are critical for ecosystem management and conservation, yet the drivers of forecastability are poorly understood. Environmental change and diversity are considered major challenges to ecological forecasting. This assumption, however, has never been tested experimentally because forecasts have high data requirements. In a long-term microcosm experiment, we manipulated the species richness of 30 experimental protist communities and exposed them to constant or gradually decreasing light levels. We collected finely resolved time series (123 sampling dates over 41 weeks) of species abundances, community biomass, and oxygen concentrations. We then employed data-driven forecasting methods to forecast these variables. We found that species richness and light had a weak interactive effect on forecasts of species abundances: richness tended to reduce forecast accuracy in constant light but tended to increase forecast accuracy in declining light. These effects could partially be explained by differences among time series in variability and autocorrelation. Forecasts of aggregate properties (community biomass, oxygen), however, were unaffected by richness and light and were not more accurate than those of species abundances. Our forecasts were based on time series that were detrended and standardized. Since real-world forecasting applications require predictions at the original scale of the forecasted variable, it is important to note that the results were qualitatively identical when back-transforming the forecasts to the original scale. Taken together, we found no strong evidence that higher diversity results in lower forecastability. Rather, our results imply that promoting diversity could make populations more predictable when environmental conditions change. From a conservation and management perspective, our findings suggest preliminary support that diversity conservation might have beneficial effects on decision-taking by increasing the forecastability of species abundances in changing environments.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70364","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144673004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating Microbial Community Data Into an Ecosystem-Scale Model to Predict Litter Decomposition in the Face of Climate Change","authors":"Katherine S. Rocci,&nbsp;Derek Pierson,&nbsp;Fiona V. Jevon,&nbsp;Alexander Polussa,&nbsp;Angela M. Oliverio,&nbsp;Mark A. Bradford,&nbsp;Peter B. Reich,&nbsp;William R. Wieder","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70352","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70352","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Litter decomposition is an important ecosystem process and global carbon flux that has been shown to be controlled by climate, litter quality, and microbial communities. Process-based ecosystem models are used to predict responses of litter decomposition to climate change. While these models represent climate and litter quality effects on litter decomposition, they have yet to integrate empirical microbial community data into their parameterizations for predicting litter decomposition. To fill this gap, our research used a comprehensive leaf litterbag decomposition experiment at 10 temperate forest U.S. National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites to calibrate (7 sites) and validate (3 sites) the MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization (MIMICS) model. MIMICS was calibrated to empirical decomposition rates and to their empirical drivers, including the microbial community (represented as the copiotroph-to-oligotroph ratio). We calibrate to empirical drivers, rather than solely rates or pool sizes, to improve the underlying drivers of modeled leaf litter decomposition. We then validated the calibrated model and evaluated the effects of calibration under climate change using the SSP 3–7.0 climate change scenario. We find that incorporating empirical drivers of litter decomposition provides similar, and sometimes better (in terms of goodness-of-fit metrics), predictions of leaf litter decomposition but with different underlying ecological dynamics. For some sites, calibration also increased climate change-induced leaf litter mass loss by up to 5%, with implications for carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Our work also provides an example for integrating data on the relative abundance of bacterial functional groups into an ecosystem model using a novel calibration method to bridge empiricism and process-based modeling, answering a call for the use of empirical microbial community data in process-based ecosystem models. We highlight that incorporating mechanistic information into models, as done in this study, is important for improving confidence in model projections of ecological processes like litter decomposition under climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70352","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}