Global Change Biology最新文献

{"title":"Climate-Driven Oceanographic Changes Shape Larval Dispersal Success in the Southern Ocean","authors":"Fanny Ouzoulias,&nbsp;Alex Nalivaev,&nbsp;Clara Péron,&nbsp;Amaël Dupaix,&nbsp;Éric Feunteun,&nbsp;Félix Massiot-Granier","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71168","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71168","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Although climate-driven changes in ocean circulation are increasingly recognized as key drivers of marine ecosystem structure and dynamics, their consequences for the early life stages of deep-sea fishes remain difficult to quantify. In the Southern Ocean, variability in frontal systems such as the Polar Front (PF) may influence larval dispersal and retention, with direct implications for recruitment. We investigated how interannual variability in ocean circulation and egg production shapes larval dispersal and retention in suitable recruitment areas of a large body size deep-sea fish species, Patagonian toothfish (<i>Dissostichus eleginoides</i>), around the Kerguelen Plateau. We developed an integrated modeling framework which combined spatially explicit models of egg production with 24 years (2000–2023) of Lagrangian dispersal simulations driven by satellite-derived geostrophic currents to quantify successful larval retention. Ontogenetic changes in distribution and fecundity were accounted for to model egg production, allowing retention metrics to reflect spatial heterogeneity in reproductive output. Larval retention rate in suitable recruitment areas varied from 9% to 28% over the study period. PF-associated jet intensity was significantly associated with larval retention variability: years characterized by stronger PF-associated circulation showed lower larval retention, with more larvae advected away from the shelf toward the eastern part of the plateau. The latter part of the time series, particularly after 2010, was characterized by stronger year-to-year fluctuations, a higher contribution of the North-West recruitment area, and more frequent low-retention years. Building on new findings on toothfish spawning dynamics and long-term altimetry data, we showed for the first time that there is the potential for self-recruitment in the northern part of the Kerguelen Plateau (French EEZ). We also discussed the implications for fishery management since PF-associated indices may help interpret past recruitment trends and offer useful early-warning for future recruitment anomalies.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.71168","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149331849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rethinking the Role of Cattle in Wetlands: An Underexplored Dimension of Biodiversity Connectivity","authors":"Leonardo Maltchik,&nbsp;C. Max Finlayson,&nbsp;Heidi L. Burdett,&nbsp;Milena Rosa Pereira,&nbsp;Filipe Fatturi,&nbsp;Gerhard E. Overbeck,&nbsp;Leonardo Felipe Bairos Moreira,&nbsp;Fabio de Oliveira Roque,&nbsp;Abdon L. Schmitt-Filho,&nbsp;Lilian Terezinha Winckler,&nbsp;Pablo Manzano,&nbsp;Cristina Stenert","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71192","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71192","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Wetland functioning depends not only on the species present but also on the continuous movement of organisms, matter, and energy among isolated populations, communities, and ecosystems. These ecological flows are fundamental for maintaining the biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems by promoting species colonization and gene flow. However, sustaining these flows has become increasingly difficult in human-dominated freshwater landscapes, where water management and land-use policies often fail to reconcile competing societal demands with biodiversity conservation. As a result, wetland ecosystems are increasingly exposed to multiple pressures, including &lt;i&gt;inter alia&lt;/i&gt; species exploitation, pollution, biological invasions, and disease outbreaks, many of which operate across entire hydrological landscapes. Maintaining connectivity between and within freshwater habitats depends on the continued movement of organisms across multiple landscape scales, making dispersal an essential part of the complex processes needed for sustaining biodiversity and ecosystem resilience in wetlands.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;A major challenge for wetland biodiversity management is that ecological functions may deteriorate even when species persist. Species may be present, but at densities too low to sustain ecological interactions, becoming what have been termed the ecological “living dead”, while the loss of functional redundancy further reduces ecosystem stability and resilience. Wild organisms are declining worldwide. Defaunation, one of the defining features of the Anthropocene, has caused severe population declines particularly among large mammals that historically facilitated biological dispersal, rendering many of them functionally extinct long before their complete disappearance (Carrasco et al. &lt;span&gt;2026&lt;/span&gt;). Fossil and paleoecological evidence further suggests that the loss of large-bodied dispersers disrupts ecological interactions, reduces landscape connectivity, and alters vegetation dynamics in wetlands. These changes raise an overlooked question: if wild large mammals are no longer maintaining ecological connectivity in many wetlands, which organisms are now performing these functions?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Although the biomass of wild mammals has declined dramatically over the past decades, domesticated mammal biomass has increased substantially (Greenspoon et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;, &lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;). Humans and domesticated mammals currently account for ~1.1 billion tons of biomass, with wild mammals only a small fraction of this total. Remarkably, cattle comprise nearly two-thirds of the global biomass of domesticated mammals, making them the most abundant large mammals on Earth (Greenspoon et al. &lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;). It is likely that such livestock biomass has substituted the former megafauna biomass, not going beyond past herbivore abundance levels (Manzano et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;). This unprecedented shift in mammalian biomass raises a fundamental question for wetland ecolog","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.71192","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149316480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Embracing the Heterogeneity Within Particulate and Mineral-Associated Organic Matter for the Next Generation of Soil Carbon Questions","authors":"Sam J. Leuthold,&nbsp;Jocelyn M. Lavallee,&nbsp;M. Francesca Cotrufo","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71191","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71191","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Soil organic matter (SOM) is a complex and dynamic substrate central to the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Because of its heterogeneity, SOM is routinely parsed into physical fractions with more uniform composition and behavior. Over the last several years, particulate (POM) and mineral-associated (MAOM) organic matter have become the most widely adopted of these fractions, which has given the field a shared, comparable framework for resolving the first-order heterogeneity within SOM. As fractionation has become routine, however, it has become clear that POM and MAOM identity alone cannot resolve the finer, second-order variation that additional mechanistic inference requires. This is in part because the fractions are operationally defined composites, whose properties vary across composition, formation pathway, and behavior. Conceptualizing them as the terminal state of analysis collapses each fraction to its central tendency, flattening the distribution and obscuring the structure on which more complex questions depend. Here we propose embracing this within-fraction heterogeneity rather than averaging over it, treating POM and MAOM as composite distributions whose internal structure underlies the variation in how they form, persist, and function. We suggest that this view can be operationalized via two complementary approaches: tailoring fractionation methods to target subpopulations most relevant to a question, and pairing fractions with orthogonal measurements. Together, these resolve the within-fraction distribution that bulk measurements integrate over, narrowing the analysis onto the most explanatory slice of the bulk SOM. Similar to the original framework, we do not aim to prescribe a certain methodology, but rather a way of thinking about heterogeneity within SOM, in which a separation is justified by the understanding it produces rather than the data it generates. This way of reasoning allows POM and MAOM to continue linking organic matter to its functions, and in doing so supports more informed stewardship of soil carbon.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13732805/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149316466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Resolving the Multiple Controls of Biomass Production Efficiency in Woody Plants","authors":"Ruijie Ding,&nbsp;Rodolfo L. B. Nóbrega,&nbsp;Alessio Collalti,&nbsp;Sandy P. Harrison,&nbsp;Iain Colin Prentice","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71173","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71173","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Plants assimilate carbon through photosynthesis to support biomass production (BP), autotrophic respiration (<i>R</i>_a) and the synthesis of non-structural compounds. Biomass production efficiency (BPE), the fraction of assimilated carbon allocated to BP, is one key factor influencing ecosystems' potential to store carbon. However, there is no consensus on the controls of BPE, and even the sign of its response to growth temperature is unclear. By means of statistical hypothesis testing using the largest observational dataset to date on annual BPE (<i>n</i> = 514 records) from evergreen and deciduous woody plants, we confirm earlier findings that BPE declines with stand age and is greater in deciduous plants. However, we also show that BPE declines toward more organic, sandy, or alkaline soils and increases with climatic aridity, while declining with warmer growing seasons and increasing with warmer winters. Such a dual temperature response is consistent with additional carbon costs due to the need for cold-hardening processes, and reconciles contradictory published reports of both positive and negative effects of temperature on BPE. Notably, our analysis provides novel evidence that BPE is significantly higher in species associated with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi than in those associated with ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi and mixed EcM–AM associations. Our analysis explains the observed BPE patterns better than dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) from the TRENDY (Trends and Drivers of the Regional-Scale Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide) project, which show a weaker correspondence with observations. In particular, our model captures reduced BPE in boreal regions, consistent with the predominance of ectomycorrhizal (EcM) species there. This study advances understanding of the global controls of BPE, and suggests a route toward the improved representation of plant growth in vegetation and land surface models.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13732807/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149316467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Divergent Patterns of Interactions Between Dissolved Organic Matter and Microbial Communities in Mangroves and Salt Marshes","authors":"Yuan Guo,&nbsp;Zhaoliang Song,&nbsp;Junjian Wang,&nbsp;Pengfa Li,&nbsp;Eduardo Moreno-Jiménez,&nbsp;Zhenghu Zhou,&nbsp;Junyi Liang,&nbsp;Carlos M. Duarte","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71190","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71190","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Mangroves and salt marshes are major blue carbon reservoirs, where dissolved organic matter (DOM) dynamics are co-regulated by primary production, microbial transformation, and environmental conditions. Understanding whether these two coastal wetlands exhibit fundamentally different DOM–microbe interaction patterns is critical for assessing blue carbon functioning. However, such interactions and their environmental determinants remain unclear. Here, we conduct a continental-scale comparison between mangroves and salt marshes spanning ~5000 km of China's coastline to elucidate the linkages between DOM molecules and microbial communities. DOM and bacterial β-diversity are positively correlated in both wetlands, but their respective distance–decay relationships are significant only in salt marshes. DOM–microbe co-occurrence networks are bacteria-dominated in both wetlands, but are more complex and positively linked in mangroves, whereas negatively linked in salt marshes. DOM-gene networks show that carbon fixation and methanogenesis genes are primarily associated with recalcitrant DOM in mangroves, but with labile DOM in salt marshes. Soil pH, together with mean annual temperature, dissolved organic carbon, soil organic carbon, total nitrogen, and amorphous calcium, collectively influence the divergences in DOM composition, microbial community structure, and carbon metabolic functions. These findings offer key insights into DOM–microbe interaction mechanisms and their divergent patterns across “blue carbon” ecosystems.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149316465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Abundance Redistribution Increases Predator-Prey Interaction Potentials Among North American Birds","authors":"Heng-Xing Zou,&nbsp;Chia Hsieh,&nbsp;Phoebe L. Zarnetske,&nbsp;Kai Zhu,&nbsp;Brian C. Weeks","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71163","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71163","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Species are shifting their geographical ranges, yet the consequences of these spatial redistributions for species interactions have not been examined at broad spatial and temporal scales. Here, we characterize shifts in the potential for predator-prey interactions among North American birds over the past 50 years. We first predict potential predator-prey interactions based on existing data, then construct a novel, abundance-weighted metric of interaction potential for each pair of predator and prey species in local communities. We found nearly universal increases in predator-prey interaction potentials across North America that are mostly driven by increases in predator abundances. The spatial redistributions of predators and prey lead to turnover of interactions within local communities that are less associated with changes in climate than with human-induced land use changes. Our results highlight the importance of considering traits, abundances, and species interactions—including known and potential interactions—when studying the ecological consequences of range shifts.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13731941/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149316464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Plant- and Microbial-Derived Soil Organic Carbon: Global Patterns and Divergent Climatic Associations","authors":"Jiayuan Wang,&nbsp;Xuefeng Xie,&nbsp;Xingwen Lin,&nbsp;Lijie Pu,&nbsp;Lingyue Zhu,&nbsp;Yan Li,&nbsp;Tao Wu,&nbsp;Zhenyi Jia,&nbsp;Shuntao Chen,&nbsp;Armindo H. Cambule","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71174","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71174","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Soil organic carbon (SOC) pools reflect the net balance of plant- and microbial-derived inputs, transformation, and loss, yet a global-scale assessment of distribution patterns, relative contributions, and hierarchical environmental correlates of microbial necromass carbon (MNC) and plant-derived carbon (PdC) remains incomplete. Based on 1167 site-level observations (1235 pool-level records) across four ecosystem types, we applied variance partitioning, random forest, linear mixed-effects models, and structural equation modeling to quantify global patterns and associative pathways of the two carbon pools. Unadjusted pooled comparisons showed higher MNC concentration and SOC contribution than PdC. However, covariate-adjusted linear mixed-effects models revealed significantly higher PdC. Paired observations showed the same directional trend, although statistical significance was not reached due to limited paired sample size (concentration: <i>p</i> = 0.104; contribution: <i>p</i> = 0.140). The apparent MNC dominance constitutes a Simpson's paradox driven by uneven ecosystem sampling, rather than a consistent within-ecosystem pattern. Instead, the relative contribution of MNC and PdC was ecosystem-dependent: MNC was marginally higher in forests, whereas PdC dominated in croplands and wetlands, with no significant difference in grasslands in paired observations. Edaphic variables were the strongest predictors (independent explanatory power: 61.1% for MNC, 47.4% for PdC), with total nitrogen, C:N ratio, pH, and mean annual temperature as key correlates. Our results reveal a hierarchical associative cascade in which geographic factors covary with climate, which in turn correlates with edaphic properties as the strongest direct predictors. Climate shows a weak but significant negative direct association with MNC only. This synthesis provides a hierarchical correlative framework and biome-specific baseline parameters to support explicit representation of plant- and microbial-mediated SOC pathways in Earth system models.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149305058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intensification and Spatial Reorganization of Drought Risks for Global Rainfed Crops Under Climate Change","authors":"Haiqing Wang,&nbsp;Dor Fridman,&nbsp;Xixi Lu,&nbsp;Yanru Wen,&nbsp;Ming Jiang,&nbsp;Guangxin Zhang,&nbsp;Yuanchun Zou,&nbsp;Peng Qi","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71164","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71164","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Rainfed agriculture covers roughly 80% of global cropland and supplies more than half of global food production, yet uncertainty in how meteorological drying propagates into root-zone water deficits and crop losses impedes robust risk assessment. Here, we establish an integrated, production-weighted assessment framework coupling SPEI, SSI, and 12 GGCMI3 crop models to trace how meteorological drying propagates into root-zone deficits and crop losses, explicitly separating affected area, conditional yield loss, and accumulated production loss across rainfed maize, soybean, and wheat. By 2070–2099, opposing-direction SPEI–SSI change classes occupied 6.8%–28.4% of rainfed area across crops under SSP1-2.6/default CO₂ and 26.6%–48.2% under SSP5-8.5/default CO₂. Comparison with fixed-2015 CO₂ experiments (7.5%–27.6% and 21.7%–34.9%, respectively) indicates that elevated CO₂ substantially expanded the spatial footprint of this hydrometeorological decoupling. Historically, SSI-defined drought affected 12–16 million ha year⁻¹ and was associated with annual production losses of 5–12 Mt year⁻¹ (1.6–2.0% year⁻¹). Under default CO₂, affected area increased to 14–21 million ha under SSP1-2.6 and 19–27 million ha under SSP5-8.5, with production losses of 6–12 and 9–12 Mt year⁻¹, respectively. Under SSP5-8.5, median loss rates were higher under fixed-2015 than default CO₂ for maize (3.33 vs. 1.96% year⁻¹), soybean (4.22 vs. 2.84% year⁻¹) and wheat (5.41 vs. 2.90% year⁻¹), as elevated CO₂ reduces stomatal water loss and thus mitigates drought impacts, whereas SSP1-2.6 estimates were similar. Severe drought became the largest loss contributor under both pathways and CO₂ settings. Under default CO₂, loss increases clustered in Central America, northeastern Brazil, western Europe and southern Africa; fixed-2015 CO₂ broadened the area of robust grid-cell loss increases. These results show that drought-related production losses are spatially uneven and sensitive to the modeled CO₂ response, highlighting the value of crop- and region-specific risk assessment.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149305057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shorebird Flyways Under Global Change: Governance for a Shifting World","authors":"K. M. Aarif,&nbsp;K. A. Rubeena,&nbsp;Sabir Bin Muzaffar,&nbsp;Taej Mundkur,&nbsp;Christian Sonne","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71171","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71171","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Every year, billions of birds migrate across continents and oceans along flyways, the interconnected networks of breeding areas, stopover sites, and non-breeding habitats that span multiple countries (BirdLife International &lt;span&gt;2026&lt;/span&gt;). Because migratory birds rely on several sites throughout their annual cycle, habitat loss or disturbance at one point can affect them along the wider route. At the Global Flyways Summit in Nairobi, BirdLife International launched the sixth edition of its &lt;i&gt;State of the World's Birds&lt;/i&gt; report on 11 September 2026. It was the first edition devoted entirely to migratory birds and the flyways they depend on (Sands &lt;span&gt;2026&lt;/span&gt;). The report assessed 1843 migratory bird species, finding that 45% are declining and 11% are threatened with extinction. It also found that species dependent on coastal wetlands, marine habitats, and forests are among the most affected, amid pressures such as agricultural intensification, invasive species, climate change, and unsustainable hunting (BirdLife International &lt;span&gt;2026&lt;/span&gt;). These findings illustrate the challenge of protecting these species through measures limited to individual countries. In response, more than 125 BirdLife Partners, organizations, and businesses signed the Nairobi Flyways Declaration, recognizing that isolated national efforts are insufficient and calling for coordinated, transboundary conservation across flyways (Sands &lt;span&gt;2026&lt;/span&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The triple planetary crisis (3PC), encompassing climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss, is disrupting the ecological integrity of all nine major shorebird flyways across the Americas, Africa-Eurasia, Central Asia, East Asia-Australasia, and the Central Pacific. Consequently, populations of approximately 230 shorebird species are declining, with reductions exceeding 50 to 90% in some species (Pörtner et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;; Smith et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;; Wetlands International &lt;span&gt;2022&lt;/span&gt;; Mundkur et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;; BirdLife International &lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;; Figure 1a; Table S1). These declines reflect the progressive loss of ecological connectivity among the wetland networks that sustain long-distance migration. As ecological sentinels, shorebirds contribute to sediment dynamics, nutrient cycling, and the structuring of benthic communities through their foraging activities and bioturbation, thereby supporting key ecosystem processes (Smith et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;; Li et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;). Their continued decline signals not only growing risks to migratory species, but also a broader erosion of wetland ecosystem integrity, resilience, and functioning under changing ecological conditions.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Climate change is reshaping wetland structure and function across migratory flyways, with profound consequences for ecological connectivity. Rising sea levels are accelerating the loss and degradation of intertidal habitats, particularly in low-lying coastal regions, while shifts i","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.71171","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149304463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temperature Carryover Effect Revealed for Marine Fishes Using Spatio-Temporal Distributed Lag Models","authors":"James T. Thorson,&nbsp;Sean C. Anderson,&nbsp;Max Lindmark","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71167","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71167","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Understanding the impact of changing temperature on population densities is necessary to predict the likely impact of climate anomalies (e.g., marine heatwaves) or forecast distribution shifts under future climate scenarios. Population densities are often analyzed using spatio-temporal models (STMs), which typically predict densities based on local habitat conditions while also estimating latent spatial and spatio-temporal variation. Recent research extends STMs by also estimating density responses to habitat conditions at nearby locations using a “spatially distributed lag” (SDL) that averages habitat conditions in the vicinity of samples. Here, we extend the SDL by incorporating insights from diffusion-enhanced STMs to simultaneously estimate spatially distributed and time-lagged responses to nearby and past habitat conditions (a “spatio-temporal distributed lag” STDL). We then use summer bottom trawl survey data from the eastern Bering Sea (1982–2024) to measure whether spatial and/or temporal lags are parsimonious when predicting population density from temperature anomalies for six ecologically important fishes. Results show that time-lagged responses are parsimonious, positive, and substantial (correlation of 0.20–0.83 per year) for five species, and that density responses to temperature anomalies also diffuse outward over time for four species at 30–53 km per year. A self- and cross-test simulation experiment shows that model selection can identify the appropriate model and that parameter estimates are approximately unbiased. We therefore conclude that temperature carryover effects arise in marine fishes and implement the method in the R package <i>sdmTMB</i> so that future studies can estimate nonlocal and time-lagged responses when measuring density responses to habitat.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149304464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}