Global Change Biology最新文献

{"title":"Detecting Zone-Type Thresholds for Soil Organic, Inorganic, and Total Carbon Pools in China's Drylands","authors":"Zhuobing Ren,&nbsp;Changjia Li,&nbsp;Bojie Fu,&nbsp;Wenxin Zhou,&nbsp;Xinli Chen,&nbsp;Shuai Wang,&nbsp;Lindsay C. Stringer","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70427","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70427","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Growing concerns about the accelerating global changes in drylands have intensified interest in understanding the impacts of diverse environmental factors on various soil carbon components, particularly their potential threshold effects, which may lead to abrupt nonlinear changes in both the quantity and composition of soil carbon. However, most research has predominantly focused on identifying key environmental drivers of either organic or inorganic carbon separately, often neglecting the presence and range of multiple critical thresholds. This study addresses this gap by analyzing extensive field data, including soil carbon measurements and ecosystem variables, collected across a ~4000 km transect in China's drylands. Utilizing a gradient forest model combined with threshold analyses, we assess the impacts of key drivers, including sand content, total nitrogen, aridity, and cation exchange capacity, on soil carbon pools. Our findings indicate that nitrogen content is the most influential factor for soil organic carbon, which was sensitive to low levels of nitrogen (0.07%–0.08%), with a slower response observed at higher levels. Aridity significantly affects both organic and inorganic carbon pools, with identified threshold zones for organic carbon at aridity levels of 0.48–0.52 and 0.75–0.85, and for inorganic carbon at 0.82–0.88. Threshold zones of sand content for total carbon are identified at lower levels and a wider range (51.4%–64.1% and 87.3%–88.1%), due to its negative effects on both organic and inorganic carbon, impacting 20% of the dryland area. Spatial variations in threshold effects revealed a trade-off between nitrogen and pH in regulating soil total carbon. The combined threshold effects of climate warming and aridification may pose a greater threat to soil organic carbon in high-latitude regions. This research enhances understanding of soil carbon dynamics in arid environments and offers novel approaches and insights for identifying thresholds in ecosystems that are increasingly at risk of reaching tipping points.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unraveling Nonlinear Interactions: A DPSIR-Based Conceptual Model for Synergistic Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Coastal Blue Carbon Ecosystems","authors":"Xiaoyong Duan,&nbsp;Ping Yin,&nbsp;Xingliang He,&nbsp;Bin Chen,&nbsp;Ke Cao,&nbsp;Gang Tong","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70432","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Coastal blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs) face accelerating degradation from synergistic climate-human pressures, threatening their carbon sink function. This review synthesizes nonlinear interactions governing BCE carbon cycles by developing a novel DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-State-Impacts-Responses) conceptual model. Our framework integrates biogeochemical processes (e.g., photosynthesis, carbonate dynamics) and physical transport mechanisms (e.g., lateral carbon fluxes) to elucidate multi-factor couplings—such as nutrient pollution, hydrological alteration, and species interactions—that drive spatiotemporal variability in carbon storage. Crucially, we identify how anthropogenic drivers amplify biogeochemical feedback loops that destabilize carbon sequestration, while restoration strategies can rebuild resilience. To enhance monitoring efficacy, greenhouse gas flux periodicity and CO₂/CH₄ emission ratios are proposed as diagnostic indicators for BCE health assessment. The analysis reveals persistent knowledge gaps in quantifying inorganic carbon cycling, microbial responses under warming, and cross-system carbon fluxes. We emphasize that effective conservation requires integrated policies balancing blue economy development with science-based management, such as payment for ecosystem services and bioremediation. This DPSIR model advances a holistic understanding of BCE carbon-climate feedbacks, providing a foundation for safeguarding these critical ecosystems under global change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Aedes albopictus Is Rapidly Invading Its Climatic Niche in France: Wider Implications for Biting Nuisance and Arbovirus Control in Western Europe","authors":"Andrea Radici,&nbsp;Pachka Hammami,&nbsp;Arnaud Cannet,&nbsp;Grégory L'Ambert,&nbsp;Guillaume Lacour,&nbsp;Florence Fournet,&nbsp;Claire Garros,&nbsp;Hélène Guis,&nbsp;Didier Fontenille,&nbsp;Cyril Caminade","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70414","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Asian tiger mosquito, <i>Aedes albopictus,</i> is a competent vector of arboviruses, such as dengue. After its introduction into southern Europe, this invasive species has been rapidly spreading as well as causing autochthonous cases of arboviral diseases. Both <i>Ae. albopictus</i> presence and potential to transmit arboviruses are facilitated at warm temperatures; hence, global warming is expected to affect their presence in temperate regions. We use a climate- and environmental-driven mechanistic modeling framework to investigate the impact of recent climate change on <i>Ae. albopictus</i> range expansion and its potential to transmit dengue in Western Europe. We simulate climatic suitability, adult density, and dengue transmission risk, which we compare with a large ensemble of entomological and epidemiological observations over the past 20 years. Most importantly, we analyze a novel spatiotemporal dataset of colonized municipalities in metropolitan France to estimate the spread rate of <i>Ae. albopictus</i> and compare it with model predictions. Lastly, we analyze the sensitivity of entomological and epidemiological risk to changes in temperature, rainfall, and human density. Distribution of simulated mosquito populations and dengue transmission risk satisfactorily match entomological and dengue observations for Western Europe (AUC = 0.90 and 0.75 respectively). While lowlands in southern Europe were already climatically suitable for hosting <i>Ae. albopictus</i> around 2010, Western France, together with large populated cities, such as London, Zagreb, and Vienna, has become suitable recently. Importantly, the accelerating colonization of <i>Ae. albopictus</i> in France may be approaching the limit of its theoretical climatic niche; future expansion will depend on the climate-driven enlargement of suitable areas. The area at risk of dengue transmission has recently expanded from the Mediterranean coasts over northern Spain and Western France. The sensitivity analysis suggests that climate change may expose medium-sized cities to the highest epidemiological risk; this finding is consistent with recently reported dengue outbreaks in Europe.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70414","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Outlasting the Heat: Collapse of Herbivorous Fish Control of Invasive Algae During Marine Heatwaves","authors":"Jeroen Brijs,&nbsp;Leon L. Tran,&nbsp;Chloe Moore,&nbsp;Taylor Souza,&nbsp;Mathias Schakmann,&nbsp;Katherine Grellman,&nbsp;Jacob L. Johansen","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70438","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70438","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Marine heatwaves (MHWs), coral bleaching, and chronic local stressors such as eutrophication are accelerating regime shifts from coral- to algae-dominated reefs, increasingly favoring the proliferation of invasive, fast-growing, and often more grazing-resistant turf and macroalgae. A central tenet of global reef management strategies is that herbivorous fishes can sustain critical top-down control of algal proliferation as oceans warm. Here, we challenge this tenet by experimentally evaluating, under controlled laboratory conditions, whether herbivorous coral reef fishes across three key functional groups—browser (<i>Naso lituratus</i>), grazer (<i>Acanthurus triostegus</i>), and scraper (<i>Chlorurus spilurus</i>)—can maintain effective algal control across present-day (24.0°C–27.5°C) temperatures and into projected MHWs (31°C). We assessed (1) whether individuals evacuated thermally stressed conditions, effectively abandoning algal control, and (2) for those that remained, whether they could meet elevated energetic demands by foraging <i>ad libitum</i> on a mixture of <i>Caulerpa</i> spp.—a rapidly spreading and archetypal group of invasive algae in the Indo-Pacific. All species gained body mass while foraging exclusively on these algae during winter and summer (~0.18%–0.62% per day). However, despite remaining in thermally stressed conditions and maintaining stable foraging rates, all species experienced consistent body mass declines (~0.41%–1.62% per day) under MHW exposure. This precipitous decline in body mass was driven by ~54%–60% increases in basal energetic demands without corresponding increases in food intake. Survival estimates based on body mass loss ranged from ~20–81 days, which is substantially shorter than the projected ~126–152-day average duration of future MHWs. Our findings reveal that while short-term algal control may persist during thermal stress, prolonged exposure appears to erode herbivore physiological condition, effectively undermining top-down control of some algal types. Consequently, as ocean warming intensifies, herbivore protection strategies may become increasingly less effective at staving off algae proliferation and dominance in threatened reef ecosystems.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70438","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Extreme Weather Magnifies the Effects of Forest Structure on Wildfire, Driving Increased Severity in Industrial Forests","authors":"Jacob I. Levine,&nbsp;Brandon M. Collins,&nbsp;Michelle Coppoletta,&nbsp;Scott L. Stephens","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70400","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70400","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Despite widespread concern over increases in wildfire severity, the mechanisms underlying this trend remain unclear, hampering our ability to mitigate the severity of future fires. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the relative roles of extreme weather conditions, which are exacerbated by climate change, and forest management, in particular differences between private industrial timber companies and public land agencies. To investigate the effects of extreme weather and forest management on fire severity, we used light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data to characterize pre-fire forest structure across five large wildfires which burned 460,000 ha in the northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA. We found that the odds of high severity fire occurrence in these fires were 1.45 times higher on private industrial land than in publicly owned forests, an effect equivalent to a three standard deviation decrease in fuel moisture. Next, we quantified the relationships between key forest structure metrics and the probability of high severity fire, as well as how these relationships were modified by extreme weather. We found that dense, spatially homogeneous forests with high ladder fuels were more likely to burn at high severity. Extreme weather magnified the effect of density, suggesting that treatments which remove overstory trees are especially important in extreme conditions. Forests managed by private industry were more likely to be dense, spatially homogeneous, and contain high ladder fuel loads than publicly owned forests, offering a potential explanation for the increase in high-severity fire occurrence on private industrial land. Overall, these results illustrate the need for comprehensive forest management to mitigate fire severity in a warmer future.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70400","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate Change Impacts on the Phenology of Laurentian Great Lakes Fishes","authors":"Morgan L. Piczak,&nbsp;Ava J. A. Sergio,&nbsp;Robert J. Lennox,&nbsp;Tys Theysmeyer,&nbsp;Jennfier E. Bowman,&nbsp;Jonathan D. Midwood,&nbsp;Steven J. Cooke","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70436","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70436","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Freshwater ecosystems around the world are increasingly impacted by climate change, yet there remains a lack of long-term empirical data on how these changes are manifesting. In the Laurentian Great Lakes, a globally significant freshwater system, fish and their habitats are expected to be affected by warming water temperatures and increasing risks of species invasions. Despite these projections, relatively few studies have documented whether such shifts are already occurring. Our objective was to assess how climate change has influenced the community and migration phenology of native and non-native fishes that use coastal wetlands in the Great Lakes. To do so, we analyzed local summer water temperatures and a 27-year dataset (1997–2023) comprising arrivals of 16 fish species intercepted at the Cootes Paradise Marsh Fishway, a common carp (<i>Cyprinus carpio</i>) exclusion barrier at the western end of Lake Ontario. Over the study period, we found that mean summer water temperatures increased by over 1°C, consistent with broader global warming trends. Using non-metric multidimensional scaling, we observed a unidirectional shift in fish community structure over time, rather than cyclical fluctuations or stabilization, indicating sustained ecological change. Analyses on phenology revealed that first, peak, and last arrival dates occurred earlier over time, while the duration of presence at the Fishway decreased for both native and non-native species. These results provide evidence that climate change is already altering the community and phenology of fishes in Great Lakes wetlands. More broadly, our findings contribute to the growing body of literature showing that climate-driven phenological shifts are reshaping freshwater ecosystems globally, underscoring the need for adaptive, climate-informed conservation and management strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70436","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Refining Amino Sugar-Based Conversion Factors for Quantification of Microbial Necromass Carbon in Soils","authors":"Di Meng,&nbsp;Kun Zhang,&nbsp;Ziping Liu,&nbsp;Yongxin Zang,&nbsp;Shasha Liu,&nbsp;Jingyi Yang,&nbsp;Edith Bai","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70443","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70443","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Quantifying the contribution of microbial necromass to soil organic carbon (SOC) has been a hot topic in the past decade, offering critical insights into soil carbon sequestration mechanisms. Amino sugars (AS) are widely used biomarkers for estimating microbial necromass in soils, with the ratios of AS to microbial necromass carbon (MNC) serving as conversion factors to derive MNC from AS measurement. Because AS decomposes more slowly than bulk necromass and persists longer in soil, the ratio of AS to microbial necromass should exceed the AS to biomass ratio in living microbes. However, current conversion factors are derived from microbial biomass data, potentially leading to overestimation of MNC in soils. Here we propose a novel approach to refine AS-based conversion factors for more accurate MNC estimation. Using biocrust soils as an ideal model system with minimal plant inputs, we derived MNC values by subtracting microbial biomass carbon from SOC. Our method directly quantified ratios of AS to MNC in soils and reduced the overestimation of MNC observed when using conventional biomass-derived conversion factors in biocrust systems. Additionally, results from other ecosystem types suggested the potential of using biocrust-derived ratios of AS to MNC in other soil types. This refined quantification approach enhances our understanding of SOC sequestration dynamics and provides more accurate parameters for modeling soil carbon cycling processes.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fast Decomposition of Nitrogen-Rich Mineral-Associated Organic Matter in Soils","authors":"Juan Jia,&nbsp;Guoqing Zhai,&nbsp;Yufu Jia,&nbsp;Xiaojuan Feng","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70448","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70448","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) stores the majority of soil carbon and nitrogen (N) and largely consists of N-rich microbial residues. However, the decomposition potential of MAOM and intrinsic properties regulating MAOM degradation remain poorly understood. Here, we deliberately constructed ¹³C-labeled microbe- and plant-derived MAOM with varying molecular compositions and organic carbon (OC) loadings and conducted three independent microcosm experiments to investigate how MAOM's intrinsic properties influence its persistence in soils. Microbial decomposition of MAOM was monitored by measuring the rate and isotopic signature of respired CO₂ during 30-day incubations, while MAOM molecular composition was characterized using pyrolysis-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry and amino acid analysis. We found that MAOM decomposition was positively correlated with the abundance of N compounds (including amino acids), which emerged as the primary predictor of MAOM decomposition across all experiments. Notably, N-rich microbial residues were preferentially sorbed onto minerals coated with organic matter via organo-organic interactions, rather than directly onto unoccupied mineral sites. This association mode, being less stable than direct mineral sorption (i.e., monolayer adsorption), likely facilitated multilayer accumulation of organic matter, resulting in both higher OC loadings and a greater decomposition potential of N-rich MAOM. These findings suggest that N-rich MAOM decomposes rapidly, challenging the prevailing view that microbe-derived N-containing compounds are strongly sorbed to mineral surfaces and resistant to degradation. Furthermore, the high decomposability of OC retained through organo-organic interactions potentially poses an upper limit of carbon retention on MAOM, offering an alternative explanation to carbon saturation other than mineral surface availability. Collectively, this study highlights the need to integrate MAOM properties (composition and OC loading) to better predict the carbon sequestration potentials and dynamics of MAOM in soils.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intensifying Fire Season Aridity Portends Ongoing Expansion of Severe Wildfire in Western US Forests","authors":"Sean A. Parks,&nbsp;Jonathan D. Coop,&nbsp;Kimberley T. Davis","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70429","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70429","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Area burned by wildfire has increased in western US forests and elsewhere over recent decades coincident with warmer and drier fire seasons. However, <i>high–severity fire</i>—fire that kills all or most trees—is arguably a more important metric of fire activity given its destabilizing influence on forest ecosystems and direct and indirect impacts to human communities. Here, we quantified area burned and area burned severely in western US forests from 1985 to 2022 and evaluated trends through time. We also assessed key relationships between area burned, extent and proportion burned severely, and fire season climate aridity. Lastly, using the strong relationships between fire season aridity and both area burned and area burned severely, we predicted future fire activity under ongoing warming. While annual area burned increased 10-fold over our study period, area burned severely increased 15-fold. Disproportionate increases in severe fire occurred across a wide range of forest types from 1985 to 2022. Importantly, we found that the proportion of area burned severely increased with fire extent at the scale of individual fires and total annual area burned. The relationships between fire season aridity and fire were strong, and our models predicted further increases in fire activity, leading to 2.9- and 4-fold increases in area burned and area burned severely, respectively, under mid-21st century climate. Without a substantial expansion of management activities that effectively reduce fire severity (e.g., thinning of understory and fire-intolerant trees combined with prescribed fire), wildfires will increasingly drive forest loss and degrade ecosystem services including carbon storage, biodiversity conservation, and water yield, with major impacts to human communities.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70429","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forest Topsoil Organic Carbon Declines Under Ash Dieback","authors":"Fiona M. Seaton,&nbsp;David A. Robinson,&nbsp;Claire M. Wood,&nbsp;Clare M. H. Benskin,&nbsp;Rebecca L. Rowe,&nbsp;Karen Hornigold,&nbsp;Keith J. Kirby,&nbsp;Chris Nichols,&nbsp;Simon M. Smart","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70430","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70430","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tree diseases are increasingly affecting woodland ecosystems across the world. However, the impact of these diseases upon the soil, and in particular soil carbon, is still poorly understood. Here we present the results of a field survey of ~100 woodlands across Great Britain measured in 1971, 2001 and 2022 and evaluate the fifty-year trend in topsoil (0–15 cm) carbon based upon measurements of soil organic matter (SOM) and the impact of <i>Hymenoscyphus fraxineus</i> (ash dieback). To better represent the full SOM distribution, including the extremely high SOM measurements, we adopt a Beta mixture modelling approach within a Bayesian framework. Across all woodlands, comprising ~1,500 plots per survey, average SOM remained constant across the fifty-year time series. However, the 311 plots with ash dieback had lower SOM in the most recent survey compared to the 328 plots with ash trees present but no dieback recorded, due to a slight decline in SOM under ash dieback. This resulted in plots with ash dieback having a modelled mean SOM of 12.2% compared to 13.4% in plots without ash dieback, a difference of 1.23 percentage points (95% CI 0.25–2.21). Ash dieback was more likely to be recorded in plots that had higher soil pH pre-ash dieback invasion, but the decline in SOM under ash dieback was not explained by changes in soil pH or changes in the ground flora composition. Converting our results to soil C and extrapolating for broadleaved woodland across the entirety of Great Britain, the total amount of topsoil carbon lost to date due to ash dieback could be 6 MtCO₂ (± 4 s.d.). Our results show the importance of understanding the impacts of tree disease when considering current and future woodland carbon dynamics.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70430","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}