Global Change Biology最新文献

{"title":"Modeling Climate and Hydropower Influences on the Movement Decisions of an Anadromous Species","authors":"Markus A. Min, Rebecca A. Buchanan, Mark D. Scheuerell","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70533","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70533","url":null,"abstract":"In large river basins, migratory fish populations are threatened by the combination of hydropower and climate change. With river temperatures rising and hydropower development increasing globally, the longstanding monitoring programs for threatened Pacific salmon populations in the Columbia River Basin present an opportunity to study these impacts over extended time scales. We fit a statistical model to 20 years of PIT‐tagging data to jointly model the effects of temperature and dam operations (spill management) on the movement of Steelhead (anadromous <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\"><jats:italic>Oncorhynchus mykiss</jats:italic></jats:styled-content>) during their adult pre‐spawn migration. We modeled the relationship between these factors and behaviors that pose mortality risks, including natal tributary overshoot (ascending a dam upstream of a natal tributary) and non‐natal tributary use. We then used the posterior distributions of model‐estimated parameters to predict the homing success of fish to natal tributaries under different climate and hydropower scenarios. Across the populations in our study, movement decisions were consistently thermally influenced, with temperature having a negative relationship with natal homing and a positive relationship with both natal tributary overshoot and non‐natal tributary use. Another consistent finding across the populations in our study was that higher overshoot rates were associated with lower homing rates. Despite data limitations associated with the PIT‐tag array network, we found evidence for population‐specific benefits of winter spill on natal homing success, which is currently being implemented to assist the downstream migration of overshooting Steelhead. We demonstrate how integrating the effects of climate and hydropower management actions with movement ecology provides powerful insights into how species may respond to future scenarios. In our case study, we found that pre‐spawn mortality of Steelhead is likely to increase with future climate change due to temperature‐driven interactions with the hydrosystem, but there is potential for hydropower managers to partially offset these impacts.","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":11.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145215632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"One Species Hibernates Shorter, the Other Longer: Rapid but Opposing Responses to Warming Climate in Two Sympatric Bat Species.","authors":"Gabriella Krivek,Frauke Meier,Leo Grosche,Gerald Kerth,Jaap van Schaik","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70531","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70531","url":null,"abstract":"The timing of hibernation represents a key seasonal transition in the annual cycle of hibernators, directly impacting their survival and reproductive success. Ongoing climate change affects many of the factors that influence hibernation phenology, such as weather patterns, food availability and the timing of mating and reproduction. The extent to which individuals should adjust their hibernation phenology in response is likely to vary between species, sexes and age classes. Consequently, long-term, individualised datasets are essential for capturing individual responses to climate change and understanding the underlying mechanisms. However, such datasets remain exceedingly rare for wild hibernators. Using 13 years of individual-level RFID-logging data from over 4000 marked bats, we discovered strikingly different shifts in hibernation phenology in two sympatric species. While Myotis nattereri shortened its hibernation period with warming winters, Myotis daubentonii surprisingly prolonged its hibernation duration. These opposing trends were primarily driven by shifts in hibernation entry in autumn. Within both species, phenological shifts varied by sex and age, with adult males exhibiting the most pronounced changes. In M. daubentonii, adult males extended the duration of hibernation by 1.8 days/year, equating to almost a full month over the study period. In M. nattereri, adult males reduced the duration of hibernation by 2.3 days/year, resulting in a one-third decrease in total hibernation duration. These remarkable shifts were strongly correlated with autumn temperatures: for each 1°C rise, hibernation entry in M. daubentonii advanced by 9.3 days, whereas in M. nattereri it was delayed by 6.2 days. Our results highlight that hibernation phenology can shift rapidly and in unforeseen, species-specific ways in response to climate change. As mismatches between hibernation timing and prey availability can impact survival and reproduction, these phenological shifts could significantly affect individual fitness and population viability.","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"98 1","pages":"e70531"},"PeriodicalIF":11.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145209267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Emissions Footprints of Agriculture Around the World 1970-2020: Decreasing Land Conversion, Regional Exceptions and Increasing Management Intensity.","authors":"C A Adlan,S V Hanssen,H Luchtenbelt,C Hendriks,J C Doelman,E Stehfest,B Wicke","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70528","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70528","url":null,"abstract":"Land-use change (LUC) and agricultural management associated with crop production are responsible for 13% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. However, the quantification of such land use emissions for specific crops remains incomplete due to the exclusion of important emission sources and limited geographic or crop coverage in previous studies. In this paper, we derive global spatially explicit land use emissions from LUC and agricultural management over the period of 1970 to 2020 and attribute them to 16 agricultural crop types and pastureland for livestock production, using the IMAGE-Land and LPJmL 4.0 models. Our results show 210 GtCO2-eq were emitted over these 50 years; 69% of which were from LUC and 31% from agricultural management. To analyze trade-offs between emissions and productivity, we generate emissions footprints (tCO2-eq/ha) and emission intensities (tCO2-eq/ton) per crop. Here, we define three clusters of crop-region pairings that help prioritize measures for future reduction in land use emissions from agricultural crops: (i) high-footprint, efficient land use (e.g., palm oil in Indonesia) where limiting conversion of high-carbon stock area has first priority, (ii) low-emission, inefficient land use (e.g., tropical cereals in Western Africa) where the focus should be on improved agricultural management to increase yields and thereby also minimize the need for land expansion, and (iii) moderate-footprint and moderately efficient land use (e.g., soybeans in Brazil and rice in Southeast Asia) where a combination of agricultural management improvements and restricting land conversion can help most.","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"27 1","pages":"e70528"},"PeriodicalIF":11.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145209261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Toward Climate-Smart Rice Systems: Moving Beyond Cultivar Improvement.","authors":"Jinyang Wang,Yu Jiang,Yakov Kuzyakov,Zhaoqiang Han,Shuwei Liu,Yao Huang,Pete Smith,Kees Jan van Groenigen,Jianwen Zou","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70545","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70545","url":null,"abstract":"Rice is one of the world's most important staple crops and a major source of agricultural methane emissions. Breeding strategies such as photosynthate allocation modification and biomass enhancement show potential, but their effectiveness is highly context dependent, shaped by water regimes and soil organic carbon levels. Cultivars effective under continuous flooding may fail, or even increase emissions, under optimized water regimes. This perspective argues for integrated strategies that combine cultivar improvement with water and organic matter management, microbiome regulation, and climate-resilient breeding to build climate-smart rice systems that ensure both yield stability and methane mitigation.","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"76 1","pages":"e70545"},"PeriodicalIF":11.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145209285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wild Birds Affected by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Worldwide: Epidemiological Insights Into the Recent Panzootic.","authors":"Pablo Plaza,Andrea Santangeli,Natalia Rosciano,Tommaso Cancellario,Marco Girardello,Martin Wikelski,Sergio A Lambertucci","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70523","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70523","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, especially as a consequence of global change, several emerging pathogens have caused alarming effects in wild species. One of these pathogens, the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1), is causing global mortalities in animals with an increasing risk to humans. Wild birds play a key role in viral transmission and spread. Using the distribution ranges of wild bird species reported as infected, we mapped global risk areas for viral spread and analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution of H5N1 from January 2017 to March 2025. We also examined the overlap between the mapped risk areas and positive cases occurring in wild birds and poultry over this period to evaluate whether these cases align with the risk areas previously identified. Finally, we evaluated whether ecological traits of wild birds, such as gregariousness, tolerance of anthropic habitats, migratory behavior, and trophic level, are associated with the viral infection. From 2017 to September 2020, the H5N1 virus high-risk areas and cases in wild birds and poultry were few and mainly limited to Asia and Europe. From October 2020 to March 2025, the rise in H5N1 cases led to rapid expansion of high-risk areas for virus circulation and spread to almost the entire world. The increase in cases occurred within predicted high-risk areas for both wild birds and poultry. The wild bird species most at risk of contracting the viral infection were those that are gregarious, tolerant of anthropic habitats, are non-migratory, and occupy the upper trophic level. Our findings provide insights that could enhance surveillance and conservation efforts aimed at mitigating the adverse impacts of H5N1 virus. These efforts can be optimized by prioritizing high-risk regions and species identified as particularly susceptible to H5N1.","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"10 1","pages":"e70523"},"PeriodicalIF":11.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145209294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction to \"Recovery and Degradation Drive Changes in the Dispersal Capacity of Stream Macroinvertebrate Communities\".","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70538","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70538","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"98 1","pages":"e70538"},"PeriodicalIF":11.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145209262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"When the Oceans Come for Your Tap.","authors":"Kyra Adams,Daniel Zamrsky","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70524","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70524","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"123 1","pages":"e70524"},"PeriodicalIF":11.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145209263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Biophysical Effects of Wetlands: Latitudinal and Seasonal Variability.","authors":"Xiaochen Yao,Zhiyu Zhang,Fenghui Yuan,Yuedong Guo,Changchun Song","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70525","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70525","url":null,"abstract":"With the advantage of anaerobic soil carbon storage, wetlands are widely recognized as potential nature-based solutions for climate mitigation. While their role in the carbon-climate system has been extensively studied from a biogeochemical perspective, their biophysical effects on land surface temperature (Ts) remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate the biophysical mechanisms of Ts regulation by wetlands by integrating physically derived variables with machine learning. Globally, 76% of wetlands exhibit an annual cooling effect relative to adjacent forest ecosystems, whereas 34% show net warming. Latitudinally, boreal wetlands exhibit the strongest cooling. In the mid-latitudes, wetlands display a distinct diurnal pattern, characterized by daytime cooling and nighttime warming. In tropical regions, wetlands tend to exert cooling in spring and warming in summer, with a net annual cooling effect. In the northern hemisphere and during spring, wetland Ts is predominantly controlled by albedo, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere and during summer, variations in Ts are primarily driven by evapotranspiration and aerodynamic resistance. The findings provide deeper insight into the complex interactions between wetlands and the climate system. They also enhance the accurate characterization of the climate regulation functions of global ecosystems, providing a scientific basis for the development of future nature-based climate solutions.","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"98 1","pages":"e70525"},"PeriodicalIF":11.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145209295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ecological and Evolutionary Dynamics of Invasive Species Under Global Change.","authors":"Aibin Zhan,Dan Bock,Elizabeta Briski,Robert Colautti,Juntao Hu,Hugh MacIsaac","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70530","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70530","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"75 1","pages":"e70530"},"PeriodicalIF":11.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145209130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"One Century of Change: Stronger Diversity Decline in Lowland Than in Mountain Grasslands in Central Europe.","authors":"Stefan Widmer,Susanne Riedel,Manuel Babbi,Felix Herzog,Thomas Wohlgemuth,Michael Kessler,Jürgen Dengler","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70529","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70529","url":null,"abstract":"Quantitative long-term assessments of the extent and direction of biodiversity change due to anthropogenic environmental change are challenging because representative baseline data older than a few decades are very rare. This is also the case for grasslands in temperate Europe, which can harbour high species diversity at small spatial scales, but have undergone strong and varied changes, particularly in relation to the agricultural intensification that peaked in the middle of the last century. We resampled 416 historical vegetation records (originally sampled between 1884 and 1931) of 0.09 m2 from grasslands across Switzerland at a wide range of elevations (300-2500 m) and moisture levels to assess the changes in taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity, as well as community characteristics, and tested whether the magnitude of change depended on elevation. We found severe declines in alpha, beta, and gamma taxonomic diversity over the last century, with species richness being on average 26% lower in the resurvey plots than in the historical plots. Functional and phylogenetic alpha diversity were also lower in the resurvey plots than in the historical plots, although the differences were less pronounced. The loss in all three diversity metrics decreased with elevation. This was linked to stronger increases in nutrient-demanding, mowing-tolerant, and competitive species, particularly grasses (Poaceae), at lower than at higher elevations. This elevational pattern reflects the strong influences of land use and eutrophication, which are more pronounced at lower elevations. By contrast, the effect of global warming on vegetation has so far been subordinate. The smaller diversity changes at higher elevations offer the potential to maintain a high proportion of the historical plant diversity in mountain grasslands.","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"94 1","pages":"e70529"},"PeriodicalIF":11.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145209260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}