Global Change Biology最新文献

{"title":"Deadwood Mitigates Declines in Soil Food‐Web Energy Fluxes in Canopy Gaps","authors":"Yan Zhang, Zheng Zhou, Gennuo Wang, Huimin Yi, Sarah L. Bluhm, Ajuan Zhang, Johanna E. Noske, Bin Xiao, Stefan Scheu, Melanie M. Pollierer, André Junggebauer","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.71197","url":null,"abstract":"Across forests worldwide, frequent climate extremes and intensified timber harvest are reshaping forest structure by increasing tree mortality and canopy opening, threatening terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem sustainability. In unmanaged forests, natural disturbances create canopy gaps and leave substantial deadwood on site, whereas timber harvesting creates gaps through the removal of living trees, thereby limiting the accumulation of deadwood. However, how these disturbances and management practices affect ecosystem functioning, especially of the belowground system, remains little understood. Here, we reconstructed 116 soil animal food webs in a full‐factorial experiment manipulating forest gaps and deadwood addition. We quantified energy fluxes of soil food webs as an integrative measure of belowground ecosystem functioning and investigated their network architecture 2 years after establishment of the experiment. Forest gaps reduced total food web energy fluxes by 13.4%, decreased network connectance, and shifted energy flow towards the bacteria‐dominated “fast” channel, indicating simplified soil food webs, impaired soil functioning, and reduced energy retention belowground. However, compared to gaps without deadwood, the presence of deadwood in gaps increased total energy flux by 37.4%, primarily through enhanced fungivory and wood‐feeding pathways, and restored network connectance and cycling rates to levels comparable to those in closed‐canopy forests. Our results demonstrate that deadwood acts as a key structural component that mitigates the detrimental effects of canopy gap formation on belowground ecosystem functioning, underscoring deadwood retention after timber harvest as a practical strategy to safeguard soil functioning in a more disturbance‐prone future.","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":11.6,"publicationDate":"2026-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149367673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projected Climate Change Impacts on Deep‐Sea Corals of the Red Sea","authors":"Megan K. B. Nolan, Jorge Assis, Fabio Marchese, Natalie Dunn, Marta Ezeta Watts, Pauline Falkenberg, Nico Augustin, Thomas Lüdmann, Froukje M. van der Zwan, Hildegard Westphal, Mohammed Qurban, Vincent Pieribone, Carlos M. Duarte, Francesca Benzoni","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71169","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.71169","url":null,"abstract":"Ocean warming, acidification, and deoxygenation, among other co‐occurring factors, are shifting species ranges throughout the marine environment. Mesophotic and deep corals are understudied in their response to climate changes, particularly in the Red Sea, which has relatively high temperatures and salinities and is projected to undergo major changes in the future, with little assessment of the impacts to date. Ecological niche modelling can be used to explain the known distribution of a species, predict its current range, and estimate future range shift under changing ocean scenarios. Here, we estimate the area of suitable habitat for four mesophotic and deep‐sea corals ( <jats:italic>Acanthogorgia</jats:italic> spp., <jats:italic>Stylaster tritoni, Bathypathes thermophila</jats:italic> , and <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\"> <jats:italic>Madracis interjecta</jats:italic> </jats:styled-content> ) across the whole Red Sea under present conditions and under different scenarios of future environmental changes (years 2090–2100). We found variations in the responses of these corals, but two of the four taxa are projected to lose significant amounts of their current habitats, while the other two lose a smaller portion. In particular, the scleractinian coral <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\"> <jats:italic>M. interjecta</jats:italic> </jats:styled-content> is likely to lose the largest proportion of its habitat, while the black coral <jats:italic>B. thermophila</jats:italic> may experience the least change. Deeper areas may become suitable for these corals, but colonisation will depend on their ability to disperse. We also assessed the potential biodiversity hotspots both now and in the future, finding the northern Red Sea to be one ecologically important area. These results enable marine spatial planning in support of an effective long‐term conservation action to protect these important habitats.","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":11.6,"publicationDate":"2026-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149367674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Soil Microbes Mediate Contrasting Effects of Plant Diversity on Biotic Resistance and Invasional Meltdown","authors":"Changchao Shen,&nbsp;Zhibin Tao,&nbsp;Jinlong Wan,&nbsp;Xiangyang Xu,&nbsp;Evan Siemann,&nbsp;Wei Huang","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.71198","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Biological invasions are intensifying worldwide as a major component of global change, with soil microbes increasingly recognized as key regulators of invasion outcomes. Yet how soil microbes interact with biodiversity to determine whether communities resist or facilitate invasion, particularly through their effects on plant growth and species interactions, remains unclear. Here, we conducted a two-phase feedback experiment in which soils were conditioned across a diversity gradient of native or invasive plant communities. We characterized soil fungal communities and quantified microbial effects on plant growth and species interactions between phylogenetically paired native and invasive species. Biodiversity generated contrasting invasion outcomes depending on community origin, driven by distinct microbial pathways. In native-conditioned soils, increasing diversity reduced invader dominance (biotic resistance), primarily mediated by microbial effects on interspecific competition that enhanced native competition strength while reducing that of invaders. In contrast, in invasive-conditioned soils, increasing diversity facilitated invader dominance (invasional meltdown), primarily driven by enhanced invader growth and suppression of natives. These patterns were associated with shifts in key microbial groups. Putative pathogen richness increased with increasing plant diversity and was negatively associated with native growth, whereas AMF richness declined with increasing plant diversity in native communities but increased with increasing plant diversity in invasive communities, promoting invader growth and competition strength. By integrating biodiversity-ecosystem functioning, biotic resistance, invasional meltdown, and competitive interactions within a plant–soil feedback framework, our study advances invasion ecology. It identifies soil microbes as central mediators that link biodiversity to ecosystem invasibility through distinct pathways affecting plant growth and species interactions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149356173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate Warming Reduces Seed Mass in European Beech Through Altered Resource Dynamics and Drought","authors":"Michał Bogdziewicz,&nbsp;Cherine C. Jantzen,&nbsp;Jakub Szymkowiak,&nbsp;Jess Farmer,&nbsp;Laura Necşoi,&nbsp;Marcel E. Visser,&nbsp;Andrew Hacket-Pain","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71196","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.71196","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Seed mass is a key life-history trait that influences dispersal, seedling establishment, and plant fitness, yet its long-term response to climate change remains poorly understood. We used two long-term datasets of European beech (<i>Fagus sylvatica</i>) from the United Kingdom (1989–2024) and the Netherlands (1976–2024) to test whether seed mass has changed over time and whether any decline can be attributed to changing climate or altered resource dynamics. Seed mass declined by 13% over the study period, with a non-linear decrease starting in the mid-2000s. Models of year-to-year variation showed that seeds were smaller in years with lower reconstructed stored resources and in years that early summer was dry. Temporal contribution analysis indicated that the long-term decline in seed mass was driven primarily by declining resource availability, with increasing drought making an additional contribution. Climate warming affects seed size in beech by direct effects of drought on seed development, and indirectly by altering reproductive dynamics and shortening the intervals available for resource recovery between reproductive events. Because seed mass influences dispersal and survival of seeds and seedlings, declines in seed mass are likely to reduce regeneration potential. Our findings identify an indirect pathway by which climate change may weaken forest regeneration.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149356199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Microbial Life-History Strategies Shape Biocrusts Soil Multifunctionality Responses to Multi-Year Snow-Cover Change","authors":"Qing Zhang,&nbsp;Zhili Han,&nbsp;Benfeng Yin,&nbsp;Shujun Zhang,&nbsp;Yongxing Lu,&nbsp;Yongxin Zang,&nbsp;Xiaobing Zhou,&nbsp;Tong Li,&nbsp;Haytham Salem,&nbsp;Yuanming Zhang","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71194","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.71194","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Winter snowfall is a critical water source sustaining the survival and ecological functioning of biocrusts in desert ecosystems, yet how different biocrust types respond to altered snow-depth conditions and maintain soil multifunctionality (SMF) through microbial community adjustments and life-history strategies remains poorly understood. Based on a field snow-manipulation experiment, we compared SMF responses in cyanobacterial and lichen crusts under snow removal, ambient snow, and double-snow treatments across different treatment-duration categories and further explored the underlying microbial regulatory mechanisms. Cyanobacterial and lichen crusts exhibited contrasting SMF responses to altered snow conditions. SMF significantly increased in cyanobacterial crusts in the short-term treatment plots (1 year), whereas lichen crusts showed a significant decline only under short-term snow removal. In the medium- and long-term treatment plots (8 and 11 years), differences in SMF between altered-snow and ambient-snow conditions were reduced for both biocrust types. Lichen crusts mainly showed increases in bacterial and total microbial diversity under snow manipulation, whereas significant diversity responses in cyanobacterial crusts were primarily associated with fungi. Microbial life-history strategies showed clear but biocrust-type-specific associations with SMF. Random forest and structural equation modeling (SEM) analyses indicated that SMF in cyanobacterial crusts was strongly constrained by the S strategy, while Y-related metabolic pathways were positively associated with SMF; in contrast, SMF in lichen crusts was positively associated with the A strategy but negatively associated with the S strategy. Soil physicochemical properties also played an important role in regulating SMF, but their effects and interactions with microbial attributes differed between the two biocrust types. Overall, this study demonstrates that altered snow conditions regulate biocrust SMF through the coupling of soil environmental changes and microbial functional responses, with the underlying regulatory pathways strongly dependent on biocrust type.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149356201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dual Constraints of Microbial Carbon Use Efficiency and Mineral Protection Govern Necromass Accrual","authors":"Qiong Xiao,&nbsp;Bingfu Yao,&nbsp;Tianyi Qiu,&nbsp;Guanmo Li,&nbsp;Xin Li,&nbsp;Yaping Huang,&nbsp;Jun Wang,&nbsp;Lei Wu,&nbsp;Minggang Xu,&nbsp;Linchuan Fang,&nbsp;Chao Liang,&nbsp;Yakov Kuzyakov,&nbsp;Wenju Zhang","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71162","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71162","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC), central to food security and climate mitigation, is increasingly recognized as being mediated by microbial necromass C (MNC) accrual. However, how microbial production and mineral preservation jointly govern MNC accrual under contrasting resource conditions remains unclear. Here, we analyzed soils from 14 long-term fertilization experiments (up to 47 years) to assess how edaphic and climatic conditions regulate the response of MNC accrual to manure (M) and non-manure (NM) fertilization treatments. We found that the primary constraints on MNC accrual varied with resource availability, with microbial production under resource-limited conditions and mineral preservation under resource-abundant conditions. Under resource-limited conditions, M treatments increased MNC by up to 122%, with changes tightly coupled to SOC gains. This accrual was associated with increases in dissolved organic C and microbial C use efficiency, indicating a production-constrained pathway in which manure inputs alleviate substrate limitation and promote microbial C allocation toward biomass production and necromass formation. Conversely, under resource-abundant conditions, MNC responses to fertilization were weaker (+56%) and uncoupled from SOC gains. Instead, MNC accrual was primarily associated with mineral protection capacity (e.g., Fe and Al oxides), consistent with a preservation-constrained pathway. Overall, microbial processing and mineral preservation represent context-dependent constraints on MNC accrual under contrasting resource conditions. These findings underscore the importance of resource context for site-specific C management and for understanding soil C dynamics under global change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149340003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fluxes Everywhere, All of the Time—A Tribute to Dennis Baldocchi","authors":"Youngryel Ryu,&nbsp;Eva Falge,&nbsp;Trevor Keenan,&nbsp;Sara Knox,&nbsp;Dario Papale,&nbsp;Markus Reichstein","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71195","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71195","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;This special issue appears in &lt;i&gt;Global Change Biology&lt;/i&gt; 30 years after the journal published the first FLUXNET special issue. The 1996 issue contained 14 papers from a workshop held in La Thuile, Italy, in March 1995, where several teams reported the first measurements of carbon dioxide and water vapor fluxes over natural ecosystems throughout a full year using the eddy covariance technique (Baldocchi et al. &lt;span&gt;1996&lt;/span&gt;). The 15 papers in this issue draw on hundreds of flux tower sites, records spanning decades, and machine learning and remote sensing.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Dennis Baldocchi played a central role in both special issues. He convened the La Thuile workshop with Riccardo Valentini and led the synthesis paper of the 1996 issue (Baldocchi et al. &lt;span&gt;1996&lt;/span&gt;). Over the following three decades, his leadership, vision and dedication were instrumental in initiating, building and sustaining the FLUXNET community, which produced the data behind this issue, and in training future FLUXNET technicians and scientists.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Meeting Dennis for the first time has always been a positive and inspiring experience for all of us. His enthusiasm, availability, interest in exchanging ideas and openness to new ideas (sometimes even crazy ones) have been an inspiration and a push for hundreds of scientists. He continues to encourage new generations to be curious and not to forget the basics of ecology and micrometeorology. Dennis's largest contribution was to make flux science bigger than any single group or discipline. FLUXNET was initiated by fewer than 20 people and the leaders of regional networks, and Dennis worked with them from the start. Two principles guided his work: collaboration across disciplines and open sharing of data. Both principles appear in his early papers: a 1988 call for cooperation between atmospheric scientists and ecologists (Baldocchi et al. &lt;span&gt;1988&lt;/span&gt;), and a 2001 description of FLUXNET as an infrastructure for compiling, archiving and distributing flux data to the science community (Baldocchi et al. &lt;span&gt;2001&lt;/span&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Collaboration across disciplines opened the field. The 1988 paper concluded that such cooperation “should produce meaningful results,” and encouraged ecologists to initiate or join micrometeorological studies (Baldocchi et al. &lt;span&gt;1988&lt;/span&gt;). A 1989 visit to Oak Ridge by Riccardo Valentini, a biophysicist from Italy, started the collaboration behind the La Thuile workshop, which brought together micrometeorologists, ecophysiologists, hydrologists and carbon cycle scientists. The workshop and the resulting 1996 special issue in &lt;i&gt;Global Change Biology&lt;/i&gt; helped agencies to fund AmeriFlux, EUROFLUX and other regional networks. Remote sensing scientists joined next, because NASA needed ground truth for the EOS/MODIS sensors, and FLUXNET was launched as a global network of regional networks (Baldocchi et al. &lt;span&gt;2001&lt;/span&gt;; Running et al. &lt;span&gt;1999&lt;/span&gt;). Later, data scientists at Lawrence ","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.71195","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149340004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"When Drought Is Not Drought: How Metrics Bias Estimates of Ecosystem Water Limitation","authors":"Jing Huang,&nbsp;Zheng Fu,&nbsp;David J. P. Moore,&nbsp;Russell L. Scott,&nbsp;Wen Zhang,&nbsp;Yang Li,&nbsp;Julia K. Green","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71172","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71172","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Anthropogenic warming and shifts in global precipitation regimes are increasing rainfall variability and the frequency of intense precipitation events, raising uncertainty about how conventional meteorological drought indices capture ecosystem water limitation. This uncertainty arises from two key issues: temporal aggregation, as most meteorological drought indices are based on monthly integrated summaries, and drought definition, because atmospheric water deficits do not necessarily translate into vegetation water stress. Here, we quantified ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) responses to drought using three approaches: (1) monthly meteorological drought identified from monthly standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI), (2) daily meteorological drought defined by daily SPEI, and (3) ecological drought defined using an indicator of actual vegetation water limitation. Comparing monthly and daily SPEI-based drought isolated the effects of temporal aggregation, while comparing daily meteorological and ecological droughts quantified the influence of drought definition. Across 130 eddy-covariance sites spanning multiple biomes and climate zones, we analyzed 6691 drought months identified using monthly SPEI. Daily SPEI data revealed that within months classified as meteorological drought, nearly 50% of days did not coincide with atmospheric water deficits owing to daily rainfall variability. As a result, monthly SPEI overestimated GPP responses (20.60% ± 5.28% increase) relative to daily SPEI (4.61% ± 1.21% increase). In contrast, daily meteorological drought metrics underestimated drought-induced suppression of GPP by ~46% compared with ecological drought, demonstrating that atmospheric drought metrics do not fully reflect water stress experienced by vegetation. Our results show that both temporal resolution and drought definition can bias estimates of ecosystem drought responses, underscoring the need for finer-scale temporal and ecologically relevant measures of vegetation water limitation to improve understanding of biosphere–climate interactions in an increasingly drought-prone world.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149331851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Compounding Human and Bioclimatic Factors Driving the Global Fire Crisis","authors":"Rachael H. Nolan,&nbsp;Jane G. Cawson,&nbsp;Luke Collins,&nbsp;Sarah J. Hart,&nbsp;Christopher I. Roos","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71189","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71189","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Over millennia, social and ecological systems have been shaped by fire and have in turn shaped fire regimes. However, recent decades have seen an escalating “fire crisis” characterized by an increasing incidence of large, intense wildfires, most notably in forests. Voices in the academic literature and media often attribute the fire crisis to a narrow range of mechanisms, for example, fuel management or climate change. This failure to acknowledge the complexity of causes leads to simplistic framings of risk, and ultimately, proposed solutions that are either not feasible or may lead to undesired outcomes. In this review we outline the human and bioclimatic factors that are driving this fire crisis. Factors reviewed include the impacts of colonial legacies, which disrupted Indigenous land stewardship and traditional burning practices over centuries; policies of fire suppression; population growth, urbanization and land management practices; biotic disturbances such as insect outbreaks and invasive plant species; and climate change, which is affecting both fire regimes and social-ecological resilience to fire. Many of these factors co-occur leading to complex interactions and, often, unexpected outcomes. Our review highlights that climate change is now having a compounding effect, building on a multitude of other factors to drive the fire crisis. Addressing this crisis requires first acknowledging its complexity and moving beyond simple framings of risk. We suggest solutions will vary across different places and through time, but may include supporting Indigenous land stewardship, adopting flexible fire responses, shifting societal expectations from aggressive fire suppression to “living with fire”, and fostering resilient social and ecological communities.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.71189","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149340002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revealing the Widespread Bias of Extinction Risk in the Antarctic and the Southern Ocean","authors":"Madison G. Farrant,&nbsp;W. P. Amy Liu,&nbsp;Melodie A. McGeoch","doi":"10.1111/gcb.71170","DOIUrl":"10.1111/gcb.71170","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accelerating environmental change in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean (ASO) necessitates robust extinction risk assessments to inform conservation priorities. Nevertheless, no systematic, region-wide baseline of extinction risk currently exists for tracking ASO biodiversity responses to ongoing change, a significant barrier to global biodiversity monitoring. Here, we conducted the first ASO-wide synthesis of current extinction risk knowledge for plants, animals and Fungi. This included examining biases in current assessments, the distribution of Threatened species and their associated threats. Using a data-inclusive workflow, we compiled 8908 assessments representing 4970 species, more than doubling the number of ASO species assessed compared with any single source. As expected, assessments were heavily biased towards vertebrates (58% assessed), while invertebrates, despite their ecological prevalence, were markedly underrepresented (6% assessed). Among vertebrates, mammals had the highest proportion of Threatened species (26%). Birds within the ASO were disproportionately Threatened (25%) compared to the global average (11%), with the greatest threat for ASO species being ‘Biological Resource Use’. The sub-Antarctic Islands had the highest density of both Threatened species and assessment effort, whereas many Antarctic species remain unassessed. Additionally, Threatened species have the lowest protected area coverage of any conservation status. These pronounced assessment biases highlight the need for more balanced, representative and data-inclusive extinction risk assessments to be able to effectively detect conservation status change. This work represents an important step in ensuring ASO representation in global biodiversity monitoring frameworks, strengthening the capacity of these frameworks to detect, attribute and respond to future biodiversity changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"32 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.5,"publicationDate":"2026-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.71170","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149331850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}