Global Change Biology最新文献

{"title":"Soil Acidification Destabilizes Terrestrial Ecosystems via Decoupling Soil Microbiome","authors":"Yulong Duan,&nbsp;Junbiao Zhang,&nbsp;Evangelos Petropoulos,&nbsp;Jianhua Zhao,&nbsp;Rongliang Jia,&nbsp;Fasi Wu,&nbsp;Yun Chen,&nbsp;Lilong Wang,&nbsp;Xuyang Wang,&nbsp;Yulin Li,&nbsp;Yuqiang Li","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70174","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70174","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Soil microbiome is essential for terrestrial ecosystem preservation. β-diversity information on the former, although dynamic due to its sensitivity to environmental conditions driven by climate change, is limited. Our knowledge becomes poorer for microbiomes subjected to environmental gradients, especially for those across multiple ecosystems—information important for biological conservation management. In this study, using next generation sequencing and machine learning at samples from 207 locations among 4300 km of transects that spanned among six typical terrestrial ecosystems of China, we established the divergent distance-decay relationships between bacterial and eukaryotic communities in response to soil pH (pH as proxy of climate and edaphic conditions). The findings, pH-decrease results in lower β-diversity (convergent tendency) among the bacterial communities opposite to the eukaryotic ones (low pH—high β-diversity (divergent tendency)). Meanwhile, competition between bacteria and eukaryotes intensifies at lower pH while the predominant genera and communities are re-structured. Under these circumstances, potential soil acidification due to climate change or other factors could alter soil bacteria and eukaryotes into decoupling directions influencing ecosystems' stability. Thus, soil pH is a pivotal environmental variable that not only describes, but also controls, soil microbiome dynamics at a large scale under ongoing global changes; hence, a cornerstone variable for the biodiversity conservation of China's nature protected areas and not only.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143770496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inorganic Carbon Should Be Considered for Carbon Sequestration in Agricultural Soils","authors":"Yang Liao,&nbsp;Lei Deng,&nbsp;Yuanyuan Huang,&nbsp;Jianzhao Wu,&nbsp;Wende Zheng,&nbsp;Jingwei Shi,&nbsp;Lingbo Dong,&nbsp;Jiwei Li,&nbsp;Feng Yang,&nbsp;Zhouping Shangguan,&nbsp;Yakov Kuzyakov","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70160","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70160","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Improved agricultural practices that restore soil organic carbon (SOC) are recognized as climate solutions, whereas soil inorganic carbon (SIC) is ignored nearly in all practices. Here, we meta-analyzed the joint response of SOC and SIC to six common agricultural practices, i.e., reduced tillage, irrigation, fertilization, residue utilization, reclamation, and restoration. The results demonstrated that the most agricultural practices strongly increased SOC, whereas SIC was less sensitive. SOC and SIC increased synergistically by following practices: Irrigation, biochar application, and improved reclamation. However, “trade-offs” between SOC and SIC due to mineral fertilizer application and restoration to forestland may partly offset soil carbon sequestration. The magnitude of SOC changes decreased with increasing depth, and deep SOC was still responsive to agricultural practices. In contrast, SIC loss occurred mainly in the topsoil, while increases were mainly in the deep soil. By optimizing agricultural practices, we estimated the global potential of carbon sequestration in soil at 1.5 Gt yr.⁻¹ (95% confidence interval: 0.3–2.8), with SOC contributing 1.4 Gt yr.⁻¹, while SIC contributed less (0.1 Gt yr.⁻¹) due to its losses under some practices. This potential is equivalent to 16% of global fossil fuel emissions. Concluding, this study highlights the potential contribution of SIC in enhancing the integrity of soil-based climate solutions, broadening the scope of carbon management in mitigating climate change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143770192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Thermal Stress History of South Atlantic Reefs Reveals Increasing Intensity, Duration, Frequency, and Likely Undocumented Bleaching Episodes","authors":"Giovanna Destri,&nbsp;Arthur Z. Güth,&nbsp;André L. Luza,&nbsp;Julia Y. Ibanhez,&nbsp;Marcelo Dottori,&nbsp;Ilson C. A. Silveira,&nbsp;Giulia B. Braz,&nbsp;Jacqueline L. De La Cour,&nbsp;Derek P. Manzello,&nbsp;William J. Skirving,&nbsp;Miguel Mies","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70162","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70162","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The primary consequence of global warming for reefs is coral bleaching, often leading to extensive coral mortality. Although bleaching is well-documented globally, the thermal stress and bleaching experienced by the unique South Atlantic reefs remain largely unknown due to insufficient monitoring on both spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, this work aimed to reconstruct past thermal stress episodes across South Atlantic reefs, and assessed whether episodes are becoming more intense, longer-lasting, and more frequent. We retrieved daily 5 km-resolution Degree Heating Week (DHW) data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Watch server for 33 reef sites spanning the last 40 years. For each thermal stress episode, we assessed the intensity (maximum DHW value), duration (number of continuous days under stress), and frequency (number of days between episodes). Generalized linear models were fitted to intensity, duration, and frequency data to evaluate the influence of latitude and the time <i>x</i> region interaction as predictors. We recorded multiple thermal stress episodes, increasing from 2010 onwards, ranging from 10 episodes between 1985–89 and 75 between 2020–24. Intensity and duration increased over time across the entire South Atlantic. Frequency also increased across the Southwestern Atlantic coast and oceanic islands, but not for Africa. Episodes at higher latitudes were more intense, prolonged, and frequent. The validity of the thermal stress history reconstruction was groundtruthed using information from the Abrolhos Bank, the only consistently monitored reef site in the South Atlantic—DHW data accurately matched the observed bleaching episodes at this site. With this, our dataset shows that multiple bleaching episodes likely occurred in the South Atlantic, but went undocumented in the field. Therefore, the information currently available for the South Atlantic likely underestimates the extent of bleaching occurring in the area, which is experiencing increases in intensity, duration, and frequency of thermal stress.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143770451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Extreme Rainfall Amplified the Stimulatory Effects of Soil Carbon Availability on N2O Emissions","authors":"Zengming Chen,&nbsp;Nan Zhang,&nbsp;Ye Li,&nbsp;Shiqi Xu,&nbsp;Yulian Liu,&nbsp;Shujie Miao,&nbsp;Weixin Ding","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70164","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70164","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Ongoing climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall, which will dramatically alter soil nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions, especially changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) due to anthropogenic management. However, our ability to predict this effect is limited owing to a dearth of research. Therefore, we selected two croplands in Northeast China with the same quantity but contrasting availability of SOC to explore the in situ dynamics of N₂O fluxes and N-cycling microbes through 2-year field experiment and N₂O production pathways by laboratory ¹⁵N-tracing experiment. In a normal rainfall year, the croplands with high (HCA) and low (LCA) SOC availability emitted 0.66 and 0.25 kg N₂O-N ha⁻¹ without N-fertilization and 2.03 and 1.51 kg N₂O-N ha⁻¹ with N-fertilization, respectively. In a record-breaking wet year, multiple heavy rainfall events caused water supersaturation in the low-lying HCA cropland over 2 months. Consequently, the background N₂O emissions increased by 508% compared with the normal rainfall year, and the N-induced N₂O emission factor increased from 0.77% to 2.24%. Soil dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was identified as the primary driver of larger N₂O fluxes from HCA cropland which facilitated denitrification by fueling <i>nirS</i>- and <i>nirK</i>-denitrifiers metabolism. Furthermore, a greater N substrate supply via a faster mineralization-nitrification coupling process promoted the contribution of autotrophic nitrification to N₂O in HCA cropland. The N₂O pulses from HCA soils during the waterlogging period were derived from stimulated denitrification, which dominated N₂O production (&gt; 90%). Simultaneously, C availability enhanced and nitrate was produced via archaeal nitrification, leading to an increased <i>nirS</i>/<i>nosZII</i> ratio that fostered N₂O production through incomplete denitrification. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of avoiding the amendment of exogenous organic materials with high C lability, particularly under climate extremes, to eliminate the potential positive feedback of SOC management on climate change by inducing N₂O emissions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143770285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Urbanization Pressures on Climate Adaptation Capacity of Forest Habitats","authors":"Anqi Huang,&nbsp;Xiyan Xu,&nbsp;Gensuo Jia","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70166","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70166","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Urbanization extensively shapes the wildland–urban interfaces (WUIs). However, the effects of urbanization on forest habitats in WUIs as thermal refuges for biodiversity remain elusive. Here, we show that urbanization-induced increases in human footprints cause canopy degradation of forest habitats in WUIs, including declines in forest coverage (−12.61% ± 0.05%), leaf area index (−0.45 ± 0.01 m² m⁻²), and canopy height (−3.74 ± 0.02 m). Canopy degradation weakens forest-based climate change adaptation, inferred by reduced forest habitat connectivity (−9.45% ± 0.08%) and elevated daily mean surface temperature (0.41°C ± 0.01°C) in WUIs, leading to a rise in frequency (0.22 ± 0.01 days) and intensity (1.05°C ± 0.02°C) of annual mean thermal extremes compared to that in nearby wildlands. A 10.01% ± 0.07% lower mean species richness in WUIs than nearby wildlands demonstrates local biodiversity loss in WUIs driven by intense human footprints, declined habitat connectivity, and increased thermal stress. We highlight the need for urban planning to fully integrate solutions for climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143770438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Don't Miss the Forest for the Trees: How Abstracting Nature Can Get Us Closer to Our Goals","authors":"Jake Lawlor","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70146","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70146","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;How will natural environments change in the future? As climate envelopes shift across Earth's surface (Burrows et al. &lt;span&gt;2011&lt;/span&gt;) and species redistribute across the globe to follow (Pecl et al. &lt;span&gt;2017&lt;/span&gt;), predicting ecological outcomes is crucial for guiding intervention, management, and adaptation strategies for biodiversity changes. However, the scale and ecological resolution with which we assess biodiversity changes can greatly influence both the methods that we choose and the insights that we glean.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Understanding complex natural ecosystems and their responses to climate change sometimes requires abstraction—condensing primary data to extract broad-scale patterns while necessarily sacrificing some details. For example, abstracting species occurrences to richness, or species interactions to network links can reveal patterns about the structure and connectance of ecosystems. However, this process comes with a tradeoff, because gaining these broad-scale insights generally means losing information about the exact species or events driving these patterns. Abstractions into functional groups, genotypes, or community-level attributes are especially useful for assessing ecological responses to climate change (Pereira et al. &lt;span&gt;2013&lt;/span&gt;), and projecting these metrics into the future can provide critical insights into how ecosystems might differ under new climate conditions. Typically, projections of community-level variables are built by first modeling individual species' responses to future climates, then summarizing species-level predictions to higher levels. However, in many cases, community-level responses can instead be predicted directly (Nieto-Lugilde et al. &lt;span&gt;2017&lt;/span&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In a recent study published in Global Change Biology, Gougherty et al. (&lt;span&gt;2024&lt;/span&gt;) demonstrate the latter approach. Their study examines how an abstracted community-level variable—community composition—might change in response to changing climates in forest communities across North America. They use an extensive dataset of tree distributions paired with multiple contemporary climate parameters to calibrate a generalized dissimilarity model (GDM, Ferrier et al. &lt;span&gt;2007&lt;/span&gt;) that predicts the magnitude of compositional dissimilarity between any two forest communities (20 km raster cells) as a function of the climatic distance between them. They then apply their model to end-of-century climate projections to predict magnitudes of compositional dissimilarity between present and future forests without projecting the compositions of future forests themselves. In other words, they model changes to the forests without modeling changes to the trees. By shifting the focus of their question from “how might communities differ in future climates?” to “how different might communities in future climates be?”, their approach targets ecological responses to climate change from an abstracted lens.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Gougherty et al. identify broad-sc","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70146","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143770437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Patterns of Adaptation to Drought in Quercus robur Populations in Central European Temperate Forests","authors":"Tetyana Nosenko,&nbsp;Hilke Schroeder,&nbsp;Ina Zimmer,&nbsp;Franz Buegger,&nbsp;Franziska Orgel,&nbsp;Imke Burau,&nbsp;Prasath Balaji Sivaprakasam Padmanaban,&nbsp;Andrea Ghirardo,&nbsp;Ronja Bracker,&nbsp;Birgit Kersten,&nbsp;Jörg-Peter Schnitzler","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70168","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In order to predict the future of European forests, it is crucial to assess the potential of the dominant perennial species to adapt to rapid climate change. The aim of this study was to reconstruct the pattern of distribution of drought tolerance in <i>Quercus robur</i> in the current center of the species' range. The distribution and plasticity of drought-related traits in German populations of <i>Q. robur</i> were assessed and the effects of spring phenology and species demographic history on this distribution were evaluated using a drought stress experiment in a common garden. We show that variation of drought-related functional traits, including intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE), leaf osmotic potential (π), and rate of drought-induced defoliation, is high within <i>Q. robur</i> populations. However, frequency of trees with high estimated constitutive drought tolerance increases with decreasing water availability in the regions of population origin, indicating local adaptation to drought. A strong correlation between the distribution of drought-related traits and spring phenology observed in <i>Q. robur</i> suggests that adaptation to water deficit interacts with adaptation to the strong seasonality of the central European climate. The two processes are not influenced by the history of post-glacial recolonisation of central Europe. The results of this study provide a basis for optimistic prognoses for the future of this species in the center of its current distribution range.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70168","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143762014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Additive Effects of Multiple Global Change Drivers on Terrestrial Nitrogen Cycling Worldwide","authors":"Bangjing Ding,&nbsp;Di Xu,&nbsp;Shuo Wang,&nbsp;Wenzhi Liu,&nbsp;Quanfa Zhang","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70176","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70176","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Global change has dramatically altered the Earth's biogeochemical cycles. However, the interactive effects of multiple global change factors (GCFs) on terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling worldwide remain unclear, limiting the ability to predict how future global change will affect the global N cycle. We conducted a meta-analysis of 108 published articles to evaluate the main and interactive effects of elevated CO₂, N addition, warming, and altered precipitation on soil N pools (NH₄⁺, NO₃⁻, and organic N) and transformation rates (N mineralization, nitrification, and denitrification) across terrestrial ecosystems. Results showed that single GCFs impacted the soil N cycle in different directions and magnitudes, with N addition and increased precipitation having the strongest positive effects on N pools and transformation rates, respectively. Moreover, the positive effects of N addition on the soil N cycle were generally enhanced when combined with other GCFs. Although the interactions of multiple GCFs were commonly additive (66.2%–83.3%), both synergistic (10.5%–15.1%) and antagonistic (2.8%–18.9%) effects were also observed. The types of treatment and ecosystem, geographic location, and climate all regulated the responses of soil N pools to GCFs to some degree, while only the types of treatment and ecosystem significantly affected the response of soil transformation rates to GCFs. These findings emphasize the importance of considering interactive effects among GCFs on terrestrial N cycling and highlight the necessity of incorporating these interactions into Earth system models for accurate predictions of N cycling responses to global changes.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143770074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Microbiomes as Modulators of Human and Planetary Health: A Relational and Cross-Scale Perspective","authors":"Anna Handte-Reinecker,&nbsp;Mallika Sardeshpande","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70152","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The various human microbiomes play critical roles in maintaining health and well-being, and they are continuously shaped by a complex web of internal and external factors. Research on human and environmental microbiomes is generally discrete within disciplinary areas such as medicine, microbiology, molecular ecology, etc. This paper presents a perspective based on a scoping review of the literature, aiming to explore how these interconnected microbiomes shape human health and well-being and, in turn, planetary health. We explore the working of human microbiomes from cellular mechanisms to population outcomes, and the role of intrinsic and extrinsic factors influencing these microbiomes. We argue that global trends such as the homogenization of diets, environments, and medical practices are driving shifts in microbial diversity, with far-reaching implications for human health and well-being as well as planetary health. Disruptions to microbial feedback mechanisms at individual, community, and ecosystem levels are often interconnected and exacerbated by biodiversity loss and environmental change. We underscore the need for holistic public health interventions that account for microbiome stewardship across scales. By examining these connections, we aim to highlight the importance of a systems-level understanding of the microbiome in public health.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70152","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143770078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multiple Models of European Marine Fish Stocks: Regional Winners and Losers in a Future Climate","authors":"Sévrine F. Sailley,&nbsp;Ignacio A. Catalan,&nbsp;Jurgen Batsleer,&nbsp;Sieme Bossier,&nbsp;Dimitrios Damalas,&nbsp;Cecilie Hansen,&nbsp;Martin Huret,&nbsp;Georg Engelhard,&nbsp;Katell Hammon,&nbsp;Susan Kay,&nbsp;Francesc Maynou,&nbsp;J. Rasmus Nielsen,&nbsp;Andrés Ospina-Álvarez,&nbsp;John Pinnegar,&nbsp;Jan Jaap Poos,&nbsp;Vasiliki Sgardeli,&nbsp;Myron A. Peck","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70149","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change continues to alter the productivity of commercially and culturally important fisheries with major consequences for food security and coastal economies. We provide the first, multi-model projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of 18 key fish stocks across seven European regional seas spanning the Mediterranean to the Arctic, using 11 state-of-the-art bio-ecological models. Our projections indicate species- and region-specific changes in abundance and distributions of these stocks by the mid- to late 21st century. The varied responses are caused by differences in species' physiology, regional food web dynamics, and physical habitat characteristics. Important drivers include not only warming of Europe's seas (from 1°C to 3°C in RCP 4.5, and 2°C to 4°C in RCP 8.5 by 2100) and changes in primary productivity but also oxygen-limited fish growth, changes in pH, and benthic dissolved organic carbon. Warming and altered levels of secondary production are projected to lead to declines in some stocks (Norwegian and Barents Sea herring) and increases in others (Bay of Biscay anchovy). While some temperate and cold-water stocks are projected to decline markedly in some regions (e.g., North Sea, Western Mediterranean), the immigration of species from the south and/or increase in productivity of warm-water species may offer new opportunities for fisheries. Species-level changes will likely have ecosystem-level consequences that have yet to be fully assessed, and responses in some sub-areas may be more pronounced due to local processes not captured in projections. Projections are consistent despite differences in model structures, and the results of our multi-model analysis align with other modelling exercises while delving into details often overlooked at the species or spatial level. This represents a novel approach to projecting the impacts of climate change on fisheries, which should be considered in future efforts to support climate-ready management strategies for marine fish stocks.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70149","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143762048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}