Global Change Biology最新文献

{"title":"Distribution Range and Richness of Plant Species Are Predicted to Increase by 2100 due to a Warmer and Wetter Climate in Northern China","authors":"Ying Sun,&nbsp;Yan Deng,&nbsp;Shuran Yao,&nbsp;Yuan Sun,&nbsp;Abraham Allan Degen,&nbsp;Longwei Dong,&nbsp;Jiali Luo,&nbsp;Shubin Xie,&nbsp;Qingqing Hou,&nbsp;Dong Tang,&nbsp;Yuzhen Sun,&nbsp;Junlan Xiong,&nbsp;Jie Peng,&nbsp;Weigang Hu,&nbsp;Jinzhi Ran,&nbsp;Jianming Deng","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70334","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70334","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The warming global climate is threatening terrestrial ecosystem stability, including plant community structure and diversity. However, it remains unclear how distribution, richness, and turnover of plant species are impacted by warming and wetting in northern China. In the present study, species distribution models were applied to predict the spatial distribution of 5111 plant species based on 111,071 occurrence records in northern China. Additionally, variations in species richness and turnover rates were predicted for 2100 under 3 scenarios. The results indicated that approximately 70% of plant species will expand in their distribution, resulting in an increase in species richness. These changes will be driven mainly by temperature seasonality (TSN), annual precipitation (MAP), and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (MTCQ). However, about 30%–40% of the species will face extinction risks, including a considerable number of endemic and Red-Listed species, and suitable habitat loss (LSH) will exceed 30%. Narrow-ranging species will be more likely to lose a larger percentage of their suitable habitats than wide-ranging species, highlighting their sensitivity to environmental changes. Importantly, it emerged that species turnover rates will increase linearly with ecological vulnerability at the grid level, indicating that community structure and species composition are easily affected by climate change in ecologically vulnerable areas. Therefore, biodiversity hotspots with high species richness in the southern study areas, as well as regions exhibiting both fast species turnover and significant ecological vulnerability, should be prioritized for conservation. These findings provide insights into how species composition and richness in plant communities vary with global climate change and provide effective ecological conservation and management strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70334","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144551062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Ripple Effects of Climate Change on Tibetan Alpine Arthropods","authors":"Guilherme Oyarzabal,&nbsp;Paulo A. V. Borges","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70333","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70333","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Climate change has altered ecosystems worldwide by shifting temperature regimes, modifying precipitation patterns, and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events (Harvey et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;; Layton-Matthews et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;). These environmental perturbations disrupt ecosystem processes, having demographic consequences that affect species distributions and phenology, frequently disrupting trophic chains, reproductive cycles, individual growth, and survivability (Layton-Matthews et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;). Among the taxa affected, terrestrial arthropods represent a particularly vulnerable group due to their small size, ectothermic physiology, and strong sensitivity to microclimatic conditions (Harvey et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;). As global temperatures rise, many arthropod species are experiencing range shifts, altered life cycles, and disrupted interactions with host plants, prey, and predators (Harvey et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;). Furthermore, climate change can exacerbate existing stressors such as habitat loss and fragmentation, leading to declines in species richness, abundance, and functional diversity (Harvey et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;). These combined pressures highlight the importance of understanding species responses and the cascading ecological consequences of climate change on arthropod biodiversity and, consequently, ecosystem functioning.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;While evidence suggests that terrestrial arthropods' ecological role is affected by climate change, observational datasets and warming-manipulation experiments remain limited (but see e.g., Hu et al. &lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;; Wallon et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;). To address this gap, in a recent study published in Global Change Biology, Hu et al. (&lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;) provided compelling experimental evidence that, even a slight warming (0.18°C–0.57°C), can cause significant losses in arthropods' biodiversity and biomass over the next few decades. Being conducted in Tibetan alpine meadows, this research is particularly important as these ecosystems are especially vulnerable to climate change (Hao et al. &lt;span&gt;2021&lt;/span&gt;). Specifically, the mean annual temperature in the Tibetan alpine meadows has increased by +0.3°C per decade over the past 60 years (Hao et al. &lt;span&gt;2021&lt;/span&gt;). High-elevation ecosystems like these are experiencing warming rates nearly twice the global average (Hao et al. &lt;span&gt;2021&lt;/span&gt;), making them critical sentinels for understanding how terrestrial biodiversity may respond to ongoing climate change.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Hu et al. (&lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;) employed a rigorous experimental design, using large open-top chambers (15 × 15 × 2.5 m) to simulate warming over six consecutive years. Although mild, the experiment simulated ecologically realistic warming conditions that mirror regional Tibetan projections over the next 20 to 30 years. Moreover, their approach allowed for natural colonization and reproduction of arthropods while minimizing artificial constraints on their life cycl","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70333","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144551063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Winter Dormant Wheat Will Benefit From Mean Temperature Increase of 2°C When Well-Watered and Fertilized in the Main Producing Regions of China","authors":"Ruoshi Wang,&nbsp;Chuang Zhao,&nbsp;Senthold Asseng,&nbsp;Bing Liu,&nbsp;Alex C. Ruane,&nbsp;Jiahui Cong,&nbsp;Xi Wang,&nbsp;Zhijuan Liu,&nbsp;Jin Zhao,&nbsp;Xiaoguang Yang","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70324","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70324","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Rising temperatures are projected to lead to a decline in global wheat production. However, this global trend belies the regional nuances of this impact, such as observed local yield increases in some field experiments in the winter wheat-growing region of China. This study combines detailed data from eight field warming experiments and outputs of simulation by an ensemble of three point-based crop models and an ensemble of 10 global gridded crop models to scrutinize the influence of warming on winter wheat yield in the main producing regions of China (MPC). Observed data were obtained from published reports of field experiments, where winter wheat was grown with sufficient water and nitrogen under free-air-temperature increase (FATI) by 2°C. Growth and physiology of winter wheat in the field experiments were simulated by three point-based crop models to validate the effects of warming on wheat growth and yield as simulated by grid-based crop models. Results of field observations and grid simulations both indicate notable increases in average grain yield (observed +13%, simulated +8%) and aboveground biomass (observed +15%, simulated +7%) under 2°C warming across the MPC. The winter dormancy and pre-anthesis duration were shorter with warmer temperature, with the effect that the grain filling period between anthesis to maturity was extended by 6 days. The shorter phenology affected wheat photosynthesis because less solar radiation was available (−6%) over the growth period. However, the leaf area index started to develop earlier and reached a higher maximum than un-warmed control, so the cumulative solar radiation for photosynthesis intercepted by warmed wheat was higher (+9%), as well as the radiation use efficiency (+1%). These findings suggest that well-irrigated and well-fertilized winter dormant wheat is likely to experience yield gains with local warming of up to 2°C, bolstering confidence in future adaptation of wheat production in China.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144537171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Phylogenetic Relatedness Predicts Extinction Risk of Native Freshwater Fishes From Non-Native Fishes Across a Latitudinal Gradient","authors":"Yingqiu Zhang,&nbsp;Yuefei Li,&nbsp;Fangmin Shuai,&nbsp;J. Robert Britton,&nbsp;Jie Li","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70320","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The strength of the interspecific interactions between non-native and native species influences the subsequent invasion impacts, with stronger interactions and thus more severe impacts predicted when the species are phylogenetically close and co-exist at lower latitudes. Although work demonstrates non-native fish are more likely to invade areas which have phylogenetically closely related species present, the impacts of these invaders on the native species remain poorly understood. Accordingly, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of global freshwater fish occurrence data to test the phylogenetic niche conservatism hypothesis in co-occurring native and non-native freshwater fishes, assess whether non-native fishes drive extinctions of phylogenetically closely related native species, and evaluate how this varies with latitude. Phylogenetic niche conservatism was evident in co-occurring non-native and native fishes, with their morphometric trait dissimilarity significantly correlated with their phylogenetic distance. Extinct freshwater fishes were found to be more closely related to co-occurred non-native species than were species of other conservation statuses. However, the relationship between the extinction probability of native freshwater fishes and their phylogenetic relatedness to non-native species was context-dependent, varying with latitude and across biogeographical realms. At higher latitudes, native fishes closely related to non-native species had a higher probability of extinction, whereas at lower latitudes, closely related native species were less likely to become extinct. Thus, the extinction risks posed by non-native fish vary spatially and depend on their phylogenetic relatedness to native species, both of which are recommended for consideration in invasion risk management programmes.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144537169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Scoping Review of Changing Climate and Weather Connections to Waterborne Pathogens in Coastal Environments","authors":"Bailey M. Magers,&nbsp;Kyle D. Brumfield,&nbsp;Moiz Usmani,&nbsp;Rita R. Colwell,&nbsp;Antarpreet S. Jutla","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70322","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Correlation of climate and infectious disease has been noted for millennia and recorded in the writings of Hippocrates. Given recent technological advances in both pathogen detection and monitoring of infectious diseases in a time of climate change, a detailed study of their link is now possible. In the aquatic environment, climate change has had an impact on ocean, estuary, and freshwater ecosystems that coincides with increased frequency of waterborne disease outbreaks. With climate change, elevated water temperature, acidification, alteration of salinity, and deoxygenation have been observed, all of which are conditions that influence microbial pathogen growth and multiplication. This review examines 11 waterborne microbial pathogens and the conditions optimal for their growth and proliferation, namely temperature, pH, salinity, and dissolved oxygen. Our findings suggest environmental thresholds for optimal growth of waterborne microbial pathogens that include a temperature range of ~30°C–37°C, pH ~7–8, salinity ~5–25 ppt, and dissolved oxygen levels indicative of eutrophication and hypoxia, ~2 mg L⁻¹. As conditions optimal for waterborne microbial pathogens become global and more frequent, a predictive capability will be essential to mitigate increased risk of severe outbreaks of waterborne diseases.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144537172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Framework for Modelling Thermal Load Sensitivity Across Life","authors":"Pieter A. Arnold,&nbsp;Daniel W. A. Noble,&nbsp;Adrienne B. Nicotra,&nbsp;Michael R. Kearney,&nbsp;Enrico L. Rezende,&nbsp;Samuel C. Andrew,&nbsp;Verónica F. Briceño,&nbsp;Lauren B. Buckley,&nbsp;Keith A. Christian,&nbsp;Susana Clusella-Trullas,&nbsp;Sonya R. Geange,&nbsp;Lydia K. Guja,&nbsp;Octavio Jiménez Robles,&nbsp;Ben J. Kefford,&nbsp;Vanessa Kellermann,&nbsp;Andrea Leigh,&nbsp;Renée M. Marchin,&nbsp;Karel Mokany,&nbsp;Joanne M. Bennett","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70315","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Forecasts of vulnerability to climate warming require an integrative understanding of how species are exposed to, are damaged by, and recover from thermal stress in natural environments. The sensitivity of species to temperature depends on the frequency, duration, and magnitude of thermal stress. Thus, there is a generally recognized need to move beyond physiological metrics based solely on critical thermal limits and integrate them with natural heat exposure regimes. Here we propose the thermal load sensitivity (TLS) framework, which integrates biophysical principles for quantifying exposure with physiological principles of the dynamics of damage and repair processes in driving sublethal impacts on organisms. Building upon the established thermal death time (TDT) model, which integrates both the magnitude and duration of stress, the TLS framework attempts to disentangle the accumulation of damage and subsequent repair processes that alter responses to thermal stress. With the aid of case studies and reproducible simulation examples, we discuss how the TLS framework can be applied to enhance our understanding of the ecology and evolution of heat stress responses. These include assessing thermal sensitivity across diverse taxonomic groups, throughout ontogeny, and for modular organisms, as well as integrating additional stressors in combination with temperature. We identify critical research opportunities, knowledge gaps, and novel ways of integrating physiological measures of thermal sensitivity to improve understanding and predictions of thermal vulnerability at various scales across life.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70315","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144537170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"National Inventory of Plastic Mulch Residues in Chinese Croplands From 1993 to 2050","authors":"Jizhao Dai,&nbsp;戴吉照,&nbsp;Can Hu,&nbsp;胡灿,&nbsp;Markus Flury,&nbsp;Yao Huang,&nbsp;黄耀,&nbsp;Matthias C. Rillig,&nbsp;Dechang Ji,&nbsp;吉德昌,&nbsp;Jianwei Peng,&nbsp;彭建伟,&nbsp;Jiangchi Fei,&nbsp;费讲驰,&nbsp;Qing Huang,&nbsp;黄青,&nbsp;Youcai Xiong,&nbsp;熊友才,&nbsp;Ning Yang,&nbsp;杨宁,&nbsp;Davey L. Jones,&nbsp;Jingkuan Wang,&nbsp;汪景宽,&nbsp;Fan Ding,&nbsp;丁凡","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70297","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70297","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Agricultural plastic mulch films are a major source of plastic pollution of croplands. In China, which uses about 68% of the plastic mulch film produced globally (ca. 1.4 million tonnes y⁻¹), soils have been heavily contaminated with mulch fragments. Here, we collected a national dataset of macroplastic residues (&gt; 5 mm) in soil, including 3145 sampling sites, and provincial plastic film usage from 1992 to 2019 in China, and we established a linear model between the residue amount and historical cumulative usage within each province. Using the model, we quantified the amount of macroplastic residues in Chinese croplands on a national scale during the past 30 years and predict plastic pollution until 2050. Our results reveal the total national amount of plastic mulch residue in 2020 to be 2.07 million tonnes with a 95% CI of [1.67, 2.58]. This accumulated amount of plastic in Chinese soils roughly equals the annual amount of plastic films used globally (2.08 million tonnes in 2018) and is about 8% of national historically used plastic mulch film (27.3 million tonnes) remaining in soil as legacy plastic. Plastic concentrations in Chinese croplands in 2020 range from 7.7 kg ha⁻¹ in Anhui to 399 kg ha⁻¹ in Xinjiang, with an average value of 119 kg ha⁻¹ (equivalent to 0.03 g kg⁻¹ soil). We predict that the total amount and average concentration of plastic residues in Chinese croplands will reach 6.24 million tonnes and 357 kg ha⁻¹ (equivalent to 0.1 g kg⁻¹ soil) in 2050 under current plastic usage. There is an urgent need for regulatory actions to control plastic pollution in Chinese agriculture.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144482081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Warming Weakens Soil Nitrogen Stabilization Pathways Driving Proportional Carbon Losses in Subarctic Ecosystems","authors":"Sara Marañón-Jiménez,&nbsp;Xi Luo,&nbsp;Andreas Richter,&nbsp;Philipp Gündler,&nbsp;Lucia Fuchslueger,&nbsp;Niel Verbrigghe,&nbsp;Christopher Poeplau,&nbsp;Bjarni D. Sigurdsson,&nbsp;Ivan Janssens,&nbsp;Josep Peñuelas","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70309","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70309","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate warming poses a significant threat to the nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) retention capacities of subarctic ecosystems, with cascading effects on soil nutrient cycling and long-term ecosystem functioning. Here, we investigated the effects sustained soil warming on the temporal retention and stabilization of N in key ecosystem pools in a subarctic grassland performing a ¹⁵N-tracing experiment in different seasons. Our results reveal that warming reduced N retention across key soil pools, with the largest proportional losses occurring in the non-extractable soil fraction, a critical long-term reservoir of organic matter. These losses were driven by the depletion of organic compounds involved in ex vivo N stabilization and the weakening of in vivo stabilization mechanisms. Warming also decreased microbial and fine root biomass, limiting their ability to temporarily immobilize N during the snowmelt period, when soil N retention is most critical. In contrast, warming increased aboveground plant biomass and N uptake during the growing season, indicating a shift in resource allocation towards aboveground tissues. However, the increase in plant N uptake, both due to its magnitude (0.14% of N gained °C⁻¹) and seasonality, was insufficient to offset the loss of N retention in the microbial biomass and fine roots (1.99% of N lost °C⁻¹) and non-extractable soil pools (1.7%–2.6% of N lost °C⁻¹). As a consequence, we observed coupled and proportional C losses across all soil pools. These findings suggest that warming disrupts key pathways of soil N stabilization, leading to the “opening” of the N cycle and proportional, potentially irreversible, C losses from cold ecosystems.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70309","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144367613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulating Lightning-Induced Tree Mortality in the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJ-GUESS","authors":"Andreas Krause,&nbsp;Konstantin Gregor,&nbsp;Benjamin F. Meyer,&nbsp;Anja Rammig","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70312","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70312","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Lightning is an important yet often overlooked disturbance agent in forest ecosystems. Recent research conducted in Panama suggests that lightning is a major cause of large tree mortality in tropical forests. However, lightning-induced tree mortality is not included in state-of-the-art ecosystem models. Here, we implement a general lightning mortality module in the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to explore the impacts of lightning on forests at local and global scales. Lightning mortality was implemented stochastically in dependency of local cloud-to-ground lightning density and simulated forest structure based on findings from the Panamanian forest. For this site, LPJ-GUESS adequately simulates the average number of trees of different size classes killed per lightning strike, with a total of 2.9 simulated versus 3.2 observed. The model also captures the estimated contribution of lightning to the overall mortality of large trees (21% simulated vs. 24% observed). Applying the new model version to other tropical and temperate forests for which observation-based estimates on lightning mortality exist, LPJ-GUESS reproduces estimated impacts in some forests but simulates substantially lower impacts for others. Global simulations driven by two alternative products of cloud-to-ground lightning densities suggest that lightning kills 301–340 million trees annually, thereby causing 0.21–0.30 GtC yr.⁻¹ of dead biomass (2.1%–2.9% of total killed biomass). The simulations also reveal that the global biomass would be 1.3%–1.7% higher in a world without lightning. Spatially, simulated lightning mortality is largest in the tropical forests of Africa. Although our simulations suggest an important role of lightning in forest ecosystems on a global scale, more data on lightning-induced tree mortality across different forest types would be desirable for more accurate model calibration and evaluation. Given the anticipated increase in future lightning activity, incorporating lightning mortality into ecosystem models is needed to obtain more reliable projections of terrestrial vegetation dynamics and carbon cycling.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70312","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144367612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Global Meta-Analysis of Passive Experimental Warming Effects on Plant Traits and Community Properties","authors":"Kara C. Dobson,&nbsp;Phoebe L. Zarnetske","doi":"10.1111/gcb.70306","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70306","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In order to better predict climate change effects on plants and their communities, we need to improve our understanding of how various plant traits and community properties respond to warming, as well as what contexts contribute to variation in these responses. To address this knowledge gap, we compiled data from 126 in situ passive experimental warming studies on 13 different plant trait and community property responses. We then collected metadata from these studies to define 9 different study contexts spanning environmental, experimental, and plant-level scales. We find that, globally, some traits decrease when warmed (e.g., aboveground N content), while others increase (e.g., plant biomass). We also identify contexts that contribute to variation in plant responses to warming, such as latitude, distance from northern range edge, and plant functional group, but the importance of these contexts varies based on the trait or community property measured. For example, as latitude increases, the effect of warming on reproductive traits becomes stronger, but this latitude-trait relationship did not hold for all traits. Our study highlights how multiple plant traits and community properties respond to warming across the globe, the importance of carefully designing and interpreting the outcomes of climate change experiments, and the need for coordinated warming experiments across varying environmental contexts in order to mechanistically understand and predict plant community responses to climate warming.</p>","PeriodicalId":175,"journal":{"name":"Global Change Biology","volume":"31 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.70306","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144339578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}