The End of an Era? Trends in Abundance and Reproduction of Australian Southern Right Whales (Eubalaena australis) Suggest Failure to Re-Establish Pre-Whaling Population Size

IF 10.8 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
Anne Grundlehner, Joshua N. Smith, John L. Bannister, Virginia Andrews-Goff, Madeleine Brasier, Micheal C. Double, Stuart P. Corney
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Abstract

The large-scale exploitation of whale populations in the whaling era led to the near extirpation of large whales all over the world. This must have had major repercussions for marine ecosystems globally. Consequent changes to those ecosystems and physical environments create uncertainty around whether present-day conditions are adequate to support full recovery of pre-whaling population sizes. Combined with potential effects of anthropogenic stressors, the future viability of exploited whale populations is questioned. This migrating species was left near extinction from whaling and has shown slow, yet steady, recovery in recent decades. Here, we collate abundance data from aerial surveys performed along the Australian coast between 1976 and 2024, covering 2250 km of coastal habitat, to study the recovery trajectory of Australian southern right whales (Eubalaena australis). We describe temporal trends in abundance, reproduction and growth of the western sub-population. Our study reveals that despite previously displaying exponential growth, and a present population size still residing far below pre-whaling levels, our annual births have started declining since 2016 and annual abundances of unaccompanied individuals have dropped by 66%. Our results suggest the end of an era of this population's recovery, highlighting that an initial period of steady recovery does not guarantee successful re-establishment of previous abundance levels.

Abstract Image

一个时代的终结?澳大利亚南露脊鲸(Eubalaena australis)的数量和繁殖趋势表明,恢复捕鲸前的种群规模失败
在捕鲸时代,对鲸鱼种群的大规模开采导致了全世界大型鲸鱼的濒临灭绝。这肯定对全球海洋生态系统产生了重大影响。这些生态系统和自然环境随之发生的变化,造成了目前的条件是否足以支持捕鲸前种群数量完全恢复的不确定性。结合人为压力源的潜在影响,被捕捞鲸鱼种群的未来生存能力受到质疑。这种迁徙的物种因捕鲸而濒临灭绝,近几十年来表现出缓慢而稳定的恢复。在这里,我们整理了1976年至2024年间沿澳大利亚海岸进行的航空调查的丰度数据,覆盖了2250公里的沿海栖息地,以研究澳大利亚南露脊鲸(Eubalaena australis)的恢复轨迹。我们描述了西部亚种群的丰度、繁殖和增长的时间趋势。我们的研究表明,尽管之前显示出指数增长,而且目前的种群规模仍远低于捕鲸前的水平,但自2016年以来,我们的年出生率开始下降,每年无人陪伴的个体丰度下降了66%。我们的研究结果表明,这一种群恢复的时代已经结束,强调最初的稳定恢复并不能保证成功地恢复到以前的丰度水平。
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来源期刊
Global Change Biology
Global Change Biology 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
21.50
自引率
5.20%
发文量
497
审稿时长
3.3 months
期刊介绍: Global Change Biology is an environmental change journal committed to shaping the future and addressing the world's most pressing challenges, including sustainability, climate change, environmental protection, food and water safety, and global health. Dedicated to fostering a profound understanding of the impacts of global change on biological systems and offering innovative solutions, the journal publishes a diverse range of content, including primary research articles, technical advances, research reviews, reports, opinions, perspectives, commentaries, and letters. Starting with the 2024 volume, Global Change Biology will transition to an online-only format, enhancing accessibility and contributing to the evolution of scholarly communication.
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