Journal of The Royal Society Interface最新文献

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Quantifying the spatial scales of animal clusters using density surfaces. 利用密度面量化动物群落的空间尺度。
IF 3.5 2区 综合性期刊
Journal of The Royal Society Interface Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2025.0274
Max van Mulken, Jasper Eikelboom, Kevin Verbeek, Bettina Speckmann, Frank Van Langevelde
{"title":"Quantifying the spatial scales of animal clusters using density surfaces.","authors":"Max van Mulken, Jasper Eikelboom, Kevin Verbeek, Bettina Speckmann, Frank Van Langevelde","doi":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0274","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0274","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Animal clustering takes place at a variety of spatial scales. While methods to quantify clustering already exist, many of these methods are either scale independent, not parameter-free, or model proximity as a binary function, which makes them unsuitable for anisotropic systems and is not representative of the perception neighbourhood of animals. We describe a method to quantify the degree of clustering of point-location data at different spatial scales, which uses kernel density estimation to construct a density function from the underlying point-location data. We build upon this method to automatically detect cluster diameters using smoothing kernels that better represent the perception neighbourhood of animals. Finally, we test our methods on artificial datasets with varying clustering characteristics, as well as on a dataset of African bush elephants. Our method correctly assigns higher clustering values to spatial scales with high degrees of clustering and accurately outputs a set of spatial scales that correspond to cluster diameters. The accuracy of our method is insensitive to the chosen kernel function. Combined with the parameter-free nature of our method, this allows for easy detection of clustering scales in anisotropic and hierarchically clustered systems, such as animal groups.</p>","PeriodicalId":17488,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","volume":"22 230","pages":"20250274"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12457028/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145131160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Towards NetZero for hospital operating theatres. 面向医院手术室的NetZero。
IF 3.5 2区 综合性期刊
Journal of The Royal Society Interface Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2025.0048
Ian Eames, Anne Symons, Duncan Wilson, Yaman Rawas Kalaji, Lyndsay Muirhead, Jonathan Groome
{"title":"Towards NetZero for hospital operating theatres.","authors":"Ian Eames, Anne Symons, Duncan Wilson, Yaman Rawas Kalaji, Lyndsay Muirhead, Jonathan Groome","doi":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0048","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0048","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Hospital operating theatre suites are a particularly resource- and energy-intensive component of the health sector. Reducing their carbon footprint presents a significant challenge due to the necessity of maintaining patient safety. In this paper, we apply a multidisciplinary methodology to investigate and assess various strategies aimed at reducing the carbon footprint in hospital theatres. The strategies evaluated include (i) the duration of theatre ventilation operation, (ii) the efficiency of the ventilation strategy, and (iii) heat recovery systems and technologies. These approaches are assessed using a combination of theatre space monitoring (via building management systems), computational air-flow modelling and mathematical models. We develop a robust methodology that applies these modelling techniques to general hospital suites, enabling the estimation of reductions in CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent.</p>","PeriodicalId":17488,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","volume":"22 230","pages":"20250048"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12419882/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145030032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Generalized paradox of enrichment: noise-driven rare rarity in degraded ecological systems. 富集的广义悖论:退化生态系统中噪声驱动的稀有性。
IF 3.5 2区 综合性期刊
Journal of The Royal Society Interface Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2025.0087
Shirin Panahi, Ulrike Feudel, Karen C Abbott, Alan Hastings, Ying-Cheng Lai
{"title":"Generalized paradox of enrichment: noise-driven rare rarity in degraded ecological systems.","authors":"Shirin Panahi, Ulrike Feudel, Karen C Abbott, Alan Hastings, Ying-Cheng Lai","doi":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0087","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0087","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The paradox of enrichment stipulates that increasing the resources available to the prey population can lead to instability and a higher likelihood of population fluctuations. We study the converse situation where the prey's environment is degrading and ask if the dynamical interplay between this degradation and stochasticity can be beneficial to the stabilization of the prey population. The underlying systems are non-autonomous and subject to noise. We uncover a phenomenon pertinent to the paradox of enrichment: rare rarity. In particular, in a slow-fast ecosystem with a sole stable equilibrium, noise can induce dynamical excursions of a trajectory into a region with low species abundance, resulting in rarity. Surprisingly, it is the same noise that can facilitate a rapid recovery of the abundance of the rare species, shortening the duration of the rarity. As the environment continues to degrade, the occurrence of such rarity events can be non-uniform in time and even more rare. The intermittent occurrence of rare rarity is caused by the dynamical interplay between the phase-space distance from the stable equilibrium to the boundary separating two distinct regions of transient dynamics. The rare-rarity phenomenon can also arise in other natural systems such as the climate carbon-cycle system.</p>","PeriodicalId":17488,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","volume":"22 230","pages":"20250087"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12404803/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144959244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Single camera estimation of microswimmer depth with a convolutional network. 基于卷积网络的单摄像机微游泳者深度估计。
IF 3.5 2区 综合性期刊
Journal of The Royal Society Interface Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2025.0428
Ali Hosseini, Célia Fosse, Maya Awada, Marcel Stimberg, Romain Brette
{"title":"Single camera estimation of microswimmer depth with a convolutional network.","authors":"Ali Hosseini, Célia Fosse, Maya Awada, Marcel Stimberg, Romain Brette","doi":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0428","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0428","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A number of techniques have been developed to measure the three-dimensional trajectories of protists, which require special experimental set-ups, such as a pair of orthogonal cameras. On the other hand, machine learning techniques have been used to estimate the vertical position of spherical particles from the defocus pattern, but they require the acquisition of a labelled dataset with finely spaced vertical positions. Here, we describe a simple way to make a dataset of <i>Paramecium</i> images labelled with vertical position from a single 5 min movie, based on a tilted slide set-up. We used this dataset to train a simple convolutional network to estimate the vertical position of <i>Paramecium</i> from conventional bright field images. As an application, we show that this technique has sufficient accuracy to study the surface following behaviour of <i>Paramecium</i> (thigmotaxis).</p>","PeriodicalId":17488,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","volume":"22 230","pages":"20250428"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12419879/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145030038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Letting go with the flow: directional abscission of dandelion seeds. 随波逐流:蒲公英种子的定向脱落。
IF 3.5 2区 综合性期刊
Journal of The Royal Society Interface Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2025.0227
Jena Shields, Fiorella Ramirez-Esquivel, Yukun Sun, Aspen Shih, Sridhar Ravi, Chris Roh
{"title":"<i>Letting go with the flow:</i> directional abscission of dandelion seeds.","authors":"Jena Shields, Fiorella Ramirez-Esquivel, Yukun Sun, Aspen Shih, Sridhar Ravi, Chris Roh","doi":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0227","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0227","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Seed dispersal through wind was historically considered a random process; however, plants can influence their dispersal through non-random seed detachment or abscission. Dandelion seeds facing the wind tend to abscise before those facing downwind, yet the mechanism that supports this has remained unclear. We measured the force needed for abscission in different directions and performed imaging of the detachment process. This revealed an asymmetry in the seed attachment morphology, which results in massive differences in the abscission force needed relative to the direction. We developed a mechanistic model to explain this directional bias and identified morphological factors that determine the properties of seed abscission. This discovery highlights plant adaptations that shape the seed dispersal profile to enhance reproductive success and can be used to improve population dynamic models of wind-dispersed plants.</p>","PeriodicalId":17488,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","volume":"22 230","pages":"20250227"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12419876/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145030042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
All-trans retinoic acid and fluid transport in myopigenesis. 全反式维甲酸和肌肉形成中的液体运输。
IF 3.5 2区 综合性期刊
Journal of The Royal Society Interface Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2025.0108
Mariia Dvoriashyna, Melissa R Bentley-Ford, Jianshi Yu, Saptarshi Chatterjee, Machelle T Pardue, Maureen A Kane, Rodolfo Repetto, C Ross Ethier
{"title":"All<b>-</b><i>trans</i> retinoic acid and fluid transport in myopigenesis.","authors":"Mariia Dvoriashyna, Melissa R Bentley-Ford, Jianshi Yu, Saptarshi Chatterjee, Machelle T Pardue, Maureen A Kane, Rodolfo Repetto, C Ross Ethier","doi":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0108","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0108","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Myopia, or near-sightedness, is rapidly growing in prevalence, with significant long-term implications for ocular health. There is thus great impetus to better understand molecular signalling pathways leading to myopia. We and others have reported that all-<i>trans</i> retinoic acid (atRA) is involved in myopigenic signalling, yet the understanding of how atRA is transported and exerts a myopigenic influence is poor. Here we measured the concentrations of atRA in the serum in wild-type C57BL/6 mice under control conditions and after atRA feeding, previously shown to induce myopia. We also developed a mathematical model that describes fluid fluxes and the advective-diffusive transport of atRA in choroid and sclera, including atRA synthesis in the choriocapillaris, atRA degradation by scleral cells, and binding of atRA to the carrier protein serum albumin. This model, developed for both mice and humans, showed that atRA produced in the choriocapillaris was able to permeate well into the sclera in both mice and humans at biologically relevant concentrations, and that atRA feeding greatly increased tissue levels of atRA across both the choroid and sclera. We were also able to identify which parameters most influence atRA concentration in ocular tissues, guiding future experimental work. Our findings support atRA's role in myopigenic signalling.</p>","PeriodicalId":17488,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","volume":"22 230","pages":"20250108"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12457024/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145131080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing the relative roles of systemic, non-systemic and transovarial transmission pathways for severe fever with thrombocytopaenia syndrome virus and its implications for future research and intervention strategies. 评估发热伴血小板减少综合征病毒的全身、非全身和经卵巢传播途径的相对作用及其对未来研究和干预策略的影响
IF 3.5 2区 综合性期刊
Journal of The Royal Society Interface Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2025.0140
Qu Cheng, Qi Li, Richard Hassall, Sen Li, Zhihang Peng, Wei Liu, Li-Qun Fang, Yang Yang, Bethan V Purse
{"title":"Assessing the relative roles of systemic, non-systemic and transovarial transmission pathways for severe fever with thrombocytopaenia syndrome virus and its implications for future research and intervention strategies.","authors":"Qu Cheng, Qi Li, Richard Hassall, Sen Li, Zhihang Peng, Wei Liu, Li-Qun Fang, Yang Yang, Bethan V Purse","doi":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0140","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0140","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Severe fever with thrombocytopaenia syndrome virus (SFTSV) was identified by the World Health Organization as a priority pathogen due to its high case-fatality rate in humans and rapid spread. It is maintained in nature through three transmission pathways: systemic, non-systemic and transovarial. Understanding the relative contributions of these transmission pathways is crucial for developing evidence-informed public health interventions to reduce its spillover risks to humans. Using next-generation matrices, sensitivity analyses, elasticity analyses and random forest models, we estimated the basic reproduction number <i>R</i><sub>0</sub>, relative contribution of each pathway, and identified the most sensitive model parameters across 27 scenarios. Results showed that [Formula: see text] ranged from 0.72 to 2.08 across scenarios, increasing with higher tick abundance and longer viraemia. Transovarial transmission dominated in 26 scenarios, while the importance of the other two varied, with non-systemic transmission more important under high tick abundance, short viraemia or aggregated tick distribution. [Formula: see text] dropped below 1 in all scenarios when transovarial transmission was excluded. These findings emphasize the need for interventions targeting transovarial transmission, such as reducing female adult tick survival and limiting large vertebrate host movement, and underscore the importance of laboratory studies measuring sensitive parameters including transovarial transmission efficiency, tick survival probabilities and the duration of viraemia and potential for non-systemic transmission for key animal host species with high seroprevalence rates.</p>","PeriodicalId":17488,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","volume":"22 230","pages":"20250140"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12419887/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145030029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantifying biological heterogeneity in nano-engineered particle-cell interaction experiments. 量化纳米工程颗粒-细胞相互作用实验中的生物异质性。
IF 3.5 2区 综合性期刊
Journal of The Royal Society Interface Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2025.0206
Ryan J Murphy, Matthew Faria, James M Osborne, Stuart T Johnston
{"title":"Quantifying biological heterogeneity in nano-engineered particle-cell interaction experiments.","authors":"Ryan J Murphy, Matthew Faria, James M Osborne, Stuart T Johnston","doi":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0206","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0206","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Nano-engineered particles are a promising tool for medical diagnostics, biomedical imaging and targeted drug delivery. Fundamental to the assessment of particle performance are <i>in vitro</i> particle-cell interaction experiments. These experiments can be summarized with key parameters that facilitate objective comparisons across various cell and particle pairs, such as the particle-cell association rate. Previous studies often focus on point estimates of such parameters and neglect heterogeneity in routine measurements. In this study, we develop an ordinary differential equation-based mechanistic mathematical model that incorporates and exploits the heterogeneity in routine measurements. Connecting this model to data using approximate Bayesian computation parameter inference and prediction tools, we reveal the significant role of heterogeneity in parameters that characterize particle-cell interactions. We then generate predictions for key quantities, such as the time evolution of the number of particles per cell. Finally, by systematically exploring how the choice of experimental time points influences estimates of key quantities, we identify optimal experimental time points that maximize the information that is gained from particle-cell interaction experiments.</p>","PeriodicalId":17488,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","volume":"22 230","pages":"20250206"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12440624/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145075137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sediment heterogeneity affects navigation by burrowers: a modelling study. 沉积物异质性影响穴居者的导航:一项模型研究。
IF 3.5 2区 综合性期刊
Journal of The Royal Society Interface Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2025.0113
Xuejing Wang, Moey Rojas, Kelly Dorgan, Arghavan Louhghalam
{"title":"Sediment heterogeneity affects navigation by burrowers: a modelling study.","authors":"Xuejing Wang, Moey Rojas, Kelly Dorgan, Arghavan Louhghalam","doi":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0113","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0113","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Worms extend burrows through muddy sediments by fracture, and the mechanics of crack propagation through heterogeneous sediments affects both navigation by burrowers and the release of particulate material, which is mixed through bioturbation. Crack propagation follows the path of least resistance or the lowest fracture toughness. Previous work showed that applying asymmetrical stress to burrow walls to simulate steering had minimal effect on crack propagation direction, suggesting that crack branching or the fusing of microcracks near the crack tip with the main burrow allows for burrowers to navigate by choosing between two directions. Here we use the lattice element method for modelling of fracture in heterogeneous materials to examine how fracture toughness, variability in fracture toughness and worm behaviours affect crack branching and microcracking. Experimental observations of worms burrowing in custom-built ant farm tanks support the modelling results that burrowing activities create microcracks both within the vicinity of the crack tip and in the surrounding sediment. In addition, hydraulic fracture driven by burrow irrigation reduces microcracking outside of the fracture process zone, potentially increasing the efficiency of burrowing. These results highlight the potential feedback between burrowing activities and sediment heterogeneity that characterize ecosystem engineering of sediment habitats by infaunal burrowers.</p>","PeriodicalId":17488,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","volume":"22 230","pages":"20250113"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12441751/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145075235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in The Netherlands, 2020-2022: statistical evidence for an inverse association with solar radiation and temperature. 2020-2022年荷兰SARS-CoV-2传播的季节变化:与太阳辐射和温度负相关的统计证据
IF 3.5 2区 综合性期刊
Journal of The Royal Society Interface Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2025.0317
Don Klinkenberg, Jantien Backer, Chantal Reusken, Jacco Wallinga
{"title":"Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in The Netherlands, 2020-2022: statistical evidence for an inverse association with solar radiation and temperature.","authors":"Don Klinkenberg, Jantien Backer, Chantal Reusken, Jacco Wallinga","doi":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0317","DOIUrl":"10.1098/rsif.2025.0317","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In temperate regions, respiratory viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 are better transmitted in winter than in summer. Understanding how the weather is associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility can enhance projections of COVID-19 incidence and improve estimation of the effectiveness of control measures. During the pandemic, transmissibility was tracked by the reproduction number <i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub>. This study aims to determine whether information about the daily temperature, absolute humidity and solar radiation improves predictions of <i>R</i><sub>t</sub> in The Netherlands from 2020 to 2022, and to quantify the relationship between <i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> and daily weather data. We conducted a regression analysis, accounting for immunity from vaccination and previous infection, higher transmissibility of new variants and changes in contact behaviour due to control measures. Results show a linear association between log<i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> and daily solar radiation and temperature, indicating a ratio of <i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> in winter versus summer of 1.7 (95% CI, 1.4; 2.1). The possibility that this association arises from unrelated seasonal patterns was dismissed, as weather data from earlier years provided poorer fits with only small effect sizes. This suggests a causal relationship between solar radiation and temperature with SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility, enhancing confidence in using this relationship for short-term predictions and other epidemiological analyses.</p>","PeriodicalId":17488,"journal":{"name":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface","volume":"22 230","pages":"20250317"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12419880/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145030099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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