Fish and Fisheries最新文献

{"title":"Causal Models as a Scientific Framework for Next-Generation Ecosystem and Climate-Linked Stock Assessments","authors":"J. Champagnat,&nbsp;C. C. Monnahan,&nbsp;J. Y. Sullivan,&nbsp;James T. Thorson,&nbsp;S. K. Shotwell,&nbsp;L. Rogers,&nbsp;A. E. Punt","doi":"10.1111/faf.70092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.70092","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rapid changes in marine ecosystems highlight the need to account for time-varying productivity in stock assessments used to support fisheries management. Common approaches incorporate annual variation or regressing processes such as recruitment, natural mortality, or growth on environmental variables. While the latter represents a step toward biological realism, it often fails to account for interactions among variables and may yield biased inferences when key drivers are correlated or unmeasured. We introduce a novel framework, Structural Causal Enhanced Stock Assessment Modelling (SCEAM), which integrates a Dynamic Structural Equation Model (DSEM) into a state-space stock assessment method. SCEAM encompasses and extends the full range of existing time-varying approaches within a single framework, enabling direct comparison among them. We applied SCEAM to walleye pollock (<i>Gadus chalcogrammus</i>) in the Gulf of Alaska to improve recruitment forecasting, comparing three causal models of increasing complexity to recruitment modelled as random deviations around a mean, a first order autoregressive process, or regressed on a single variable. We found that a causal model with intermediate complexity best balanced fit, parsimony, and predictive skill. This configuration reduced unexplained variance of recruitment by 69% and improved one-year-ahead forecasts. Key variables included juvenile body condition and juvenile and larval catch rates. Our study represents the first application of a structural causal model embedded within a fisheries population model. SCEAM offers a unified, hypothesis-driven approach for integrating multiple non-independent variables. We therefore propose that SCEAM serve as a general scientific and statistical framework for conducting next-generation ecosystem- and climate-linked fisheries stock assessments.</p>","PeriodicalId":169,"journal":{"name":"Fish and Fisheries","volume":"27 4","pages":"942-959"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/faf.70092","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148208932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using Stock Vulnerability to Evaluate Fishery-Independent Survey Coverage and Inform Sampling Priorities","authors":"Derek G. Bolser,&nbsp;Lewis A. K. Barnett,&nbsp;Jason Cope","doi":"10.1111/faf.70090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.70090","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The consequences of mis-managing vulnerable stocks (i.e., those with low productivity and high susceptibility to depletion) are high and potentially permanent. To support sustainable fisheries management, stock assessments can be improved by increasing the quantity and quality of fishery-independent survey (i.e., survey) data. Social and economic value typically determine sampling priorities, but high value stocks are not necessarily at the highest risk for depletion. So, we modified the Productivity-Susceptibility Analysis, a data-limited fishery assessment tool, to identify which stocks are most vulnerable to unpredicted stock depletion (due to overfishing, environmental stressors, or mis-management from unknown or mis-specified stock status). We examined the vulnerability of 426 fish stocks or species within stock complexes that NOAA Fisheries assessed from 2005 to 2024 (excluding highly migratory and salmon stocks). We then examined patterns of vulnerability by taxonomy, area and survey method. The most vulnerable stocks were demersal teleosts (e.g., Psychrolutids, Macrourids, Scorpaenids). On average, the Caribbean Sea, West Coast and Pacific Islands contained the most highly vulnerable un-sampled stocks. Visual surveys in Alaska sampled the most vulnerable stocks on average, followed by bottom trawl surveys in Alaska. Across all areas, bottom trawl surveys provided stock assessment information for nearly twice as many stocks as any other survey method on average. Data limitations can lead to large buffers around catch limits and whether highly vulnerable stocks are subject to directed fisheries or are constraining ‘choke’ stocks in others, considering stock vulnerability alongside social and economic value may lead to better fishery management outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":169,"journal":{"name":"Fish and Fisheries","volume":"27 4","pages":"912-926"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/faf.70090","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148209031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reproductive Biology and Early Life History Inform Steepness and the Productivity of Rockfishes (Sebastes spp., Scorpaenidae) in the California Current","authors":"Sabrina G. Beyer,&nbsp;John C. Field,&nbsp;Marc Mangel","doi":"10.1111/faf.70099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.70099","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Steepness, a parameter derived from the stock-recruit relationship, is widely used in fishery stock assessments to scale the productivity of a population. Steepness is a highly influential parameter, but it is often unknown a priori and is typically difficult to estimate. Attempts to statistically estimate steepness, either within stock assessments or through meta-analyses, can lead to implausible results. We move beyond steepness as a statistical concept to emphasize that steepness is determined by life history traits and the early life survival of offspring of a population. We return to the original derivation of the Beverton-Holt stock-recruit relationship, and model recruitment to the population as a function of total egg production, rather than using spawning biomass as a proxy. We then demonstrate how to calculate steepness based on biology through a case study of rockfishes (<i>Sebastes</i> spp., Scorpaenidae) in the California Current, where steepness has been notoriously difficult to estimate. We leverage a wealth of reproductive ecology and early life history information (empirical data and associated life history parameters) to compute steepness values for four species of rockfishes, in order to illustrate how steepness varies by species based on differences in their life histories. We also show the sensitivity of steepness to the different life history traits. We conclude that steepness of a stock-recruit relationship is a real biological parameter and can be meaningfully informed with life history parameters including early life survival.</p>","PeriodicalId":169,"journal":{"name":"Fish and Fisheries","volume":"27 4","pages":"1028-1046"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/faf.70099","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148208996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Framework to Investigate the Effects of Observation Error on Neural Network Predictions of Fish Age","authors":"Derek W. Chamberlin,&nbsp;Thomas E. Helser,&nbsp;John D. Brogan,&nbsp;Irina M. Benson,&nbsp;Jason Conner,&nbsp;Andrew T. Chin,&nbsp;Christopher M. Gburski,&nbsp;Mary Elizabeth Matta,&nbsp;Julie A. Pearce,&nbsp;Kali R. Stone,&nbsp;Todd T. TenBrink,&nbsp;Morgan B. Arrington","doi":"10.1111/faf.70094","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.70094","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Technological innovations for predicting fish age represent a paradigm shift from conventional age estimation methods used in fisheries science. Recently developed secondary methods rely on models trained on conventional age estimates, derived from subjective interpretation of growth patterns and a biological property of the fish to predict age. Hence, quantifying the error that propagates from these models and the conventional age estimates on which they are trained is critical to fully account for uncertainty in predicted ages used in fisheries stock assessments. We review the development of three secondary age prediction methods: image analysis, epigenetics and Fourier transform near-infrared spectroscopy (FT-NIRS); the use of artificial intelligence (AI) within each method; and present an approach to examine the effects of ageing error on AI age prediction models. As a case study, we conducted an empirical study, coupled with simulation, to quantify the effects of ageing error on the performance of a multimodal convolutional neural network (MMCNN) model used to predict eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock (<i>Gadus chalcogrammus</i>) ages from otoliths analysed using FT-NIRS. Results indicated repeatability of predicted ages was high between instrument operators, while adding ageing error resulted in a slight decrease in model performance from <i>R</i>² = 0.92 and CV = 7.6% to <i>R</i>² = 0.87 and CV = 10.2% on test datasets. Our results also suggest the MMCNN model is robust to noise in calibration age data and model performance may be better than performance metrics indicate when the model is evaluated against data with increased error.</p>","PeriodicalId":169,"journal":{"name":"Fish and Fisheries","volume":"27 4","pages":"974-986"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/faf.70094","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148209048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deep Dark Futures: Foresighting Human Impacts on Mesopelagic Ecosystem Services","authors":"Ben Scoulding,&nbsp;Alistair J. Hobday,&nbsp;Rowan Trebilco,&nbsp;Heidi Pethybridge,&nbsp;Ingrid van Putten,&nbsp;Katherine Baker,&nbsp;Karen Evans,&nbsp;David Green,&nbsp;Eriko Hoshino,&nbsp;Haris Kunnath,&nbsp;Clothilde Langlais,&nbsp;Tim P. Lynch,&nbsp;Javier Porobic,&nbsp;Tyler Rohr,&nbsp;Elizabeth H. Shadwick,&nbsp;Caroline A. Sutton,&nbsp;Jodie Van de Kamp,&nbsp;Briannyn Woods,&nbsp;Bowen Zhang","doi":"10.1111/faf.70088","DOIUrl":"10.1111/faf.70088","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Most of the global mesopelagic zone lies beyond the jurisdiction of any single government or entity, making equitable access and sustainable management for ecosystem services (ES) difficult. Here, a foresighting approach was used to examine the plausible consequences of four speculative scenarios of human activity on the mesopelagic zone and its associated ES. Large-scale Harvest represented the provisioning ES, with concerns over unsustainable removal of mesopelagic biota. Climate Mitigation, a regulating ES, involved harvesting and then dumping mesopelagic biota to maximise carbon drawdown. In Geopolitical Manoeuvring, the scenario focused on cultural ES; mesopelagic fisheries were used as a geopolitical instrument to assert claims over ocean spaces. Finally, Mineral Extraction, a supporting ES, considered the impact of deep-sea mining on mesopelagic ecosystems. Drivers and indicators for each scenario were identified, and qualitative network models were created to assess impact on the different system components using press perturbations. Model outputs highlighted the central role that mesopelagic biota play in supporting and regulating other ecosystem components and the likely negative impacts of reduced biomass on higher order predators and ocean carbon storage. Interestingly, biological indicators performed poorly as early warning signals of change across all scenarios; instead, the most effective indicators were related to science and technology, economics and governance. International agreements for sustainable use of the mesopelagic zone are needed to avoid loss of ES underpinning all scenarios. While this foresighting focused on the mesopelagic zone, the approach of developing scenarios, models and indicators has broader applicability to studies of other systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":169,"journal":{"name":"Fish and Fisheries","volume":"27 4","pages":"876-894"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/faf.70088","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147743832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Species Specificity in Fish Sounds: Evidence, Limits and Methodological Implications","authors":"Eric Parmentier,&nbsp;Marine Banse","doi":"10.1111/faf.70093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.70093","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Acoustic communication is now recognised as a widespread and functionally important component of fish behaviour. However, its evolutionary interpretation remains fragmented, as different types of acoustic signals are not interpreted with the same level of confidence. In particular, sounds recorded under disturbance or from hand-held individuals are widely used in comparative studies but remain debated in evolutionary contexts. Here, we re-examine these limitations by reviewing empirical, mechanistic and behavioural evidence across a wide range of teleost taxa. We show that interspecific acoustic differences are not restricted to reproductive contexts and that sounds obtained under disturbance can reflect intrinsic species-level properties of neural control, musculature and sound-producing structures. At the same time, we highlight that acoustic species specificity has not been demonstrated as a general rule across fishes, nor does sound alone constitute a universal prezygotic barrier. By integrating behavioural context, sound-production mechanisms and recording methodologies, this review provides a framework to interpret acoustic variation in an evolutionary context and clarifies the scope, limits and evolutionary relevance of different acoustic datasets.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":169,"journal":{"name":"Fish and Fisheries","volume":"27 4","pages":"960-973"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148208925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Meta-Analysis on Environmental Triggers of Spawning Migrations Reveals a New Classification of Thermal Guilds in European Freshwater Fishes","authors":"Christian Schlautmann,&nbsp;Robert Arlinghaus,&nbsp;Daniel Hering,&nbsp;Armin W. Lorenz,&nbsp;Christian Wolter,&nbsp;Christian Schürings","doi":"10.1111/faf.70063","DOIUrl":"10.1111/faf.70063","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Fish migration through river networks is essential for completing life cycles and accessing critical habitats, but fragmentation increasingly disrupts spawning movements. In Europe, over one million barriers limit connectivity and create trade-offs between ecological integrity and human uses, such as hydropower, flood control, fisheries and water storage. Furthermore, climate change can decrease habitat suitability, reinforcing migration needs to escape local extinctions. Limited knowledge of environmental triggers constrains species-specific migration predictions. Here, we quantified the influence of seven environmental triggers—water temperature, flow, turbidity, cloud cover, rain, air pressure and radiation—on spawning migration of European freshwater fishes. A meta-analysis of 112 studies (685,333 individuals, 953 effect sizes, 50 species) showed that water temperature was the dominant migration trigger. Radiation, turbidity and cloud cover showed weaker, context-dependent effects, while effects of flow, rain and air pressure were non-significant. Species-specific average spawning migration temperatures correlated with upper limits of species-specific thermal tolerances, indicating that migration timing reflects physiological constraints. Following this argument, we derive a new classification of thermal sensitivity for European freshwater fishes, distinguishing three thermal spawning guilds: cold (&lt; 11°C), cool (11°C–15°C) and warm (&gt; 15°C), with positive migration responses to temperature most frequently in warm-water, less in cool-water and rarely in cold-water species. Our synthesis identifies gaps for species and triggers beyond temperature and flow, providing a quantitative basis for predicting spawning migration timing to guide conservation and connectivity restoration in European rivers.</p>","PeriodicalId":169,"journal":{"name":"Fish and Fisheries","volume":"27 3","pages":"478-495"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/faf.70063","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146122172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Navigating Future Waters: The Resilience of the Atlantic Bluefin Tuna Under Climate Change","authors":"Maite Erauskin-Extramiana,&nbsp;Mireia Valle,&nbsp;Leonardo Cruz,&nbsp;Barbara Muhling,&nbsp;Jose A. Fernandes-Salvador,&nbsp;Mercedes Pozo Buil,&nbsp;Guillermo Ortuño Crespo,&nbsp;Stephanie Brodie,&nbsp;Elliott L. Hazen,&nbsp;Steven J. Bograd,&nbsp;Haritz Arrizabalaga,&nbsp;Gorka Merino,&nbsp;Nerea Lezama-Ochoa","doi":"10.1111/faf.70061","DOIUrl":"10.1111/faf.70061","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Atlantic bluefin tuna (ABFT) is an ecologically and economically valuable species. As global warming drives marine species toward cooler or deeper waters, ABFT distributions are expected to shift, potentially disrupting predator–prey dynamics and fisheries interactions. This study models future habitat suitability for ABFT, its primary prey (as a proxy for food availability), and the drifting longline fishery that targets adult ABFT under three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). Results indicate a poleward shift in ABFT distribution, with habitat losses in tropical regions and gains in boreal zones. Prey species show similar trends, increasing spatial overlap with ABFT in higher latitudes while decreasing in tropical areas. These boreal regions may act as climate <i>refugia</i> and <i>bright spots</i>, with a projected 15% increase in prey overlap by century's end. However, ABFT key spawning grounds—the Mediterranean Sea and Gulf of Mexico—are projected to become significantly less suitable for adults, with habitat suitability declining by up to 27% and 73%, respectively, threatening reproductive success. Meanwhile, overlap with the drifting longline fishery may decline by 4%, unless fishing efforts also shift poleward. Regions such as Greenland and northern Europe may become increasingly important for ABFT persistence and expansion. These distributional changes could challenge current international agreements and quota systems, underscoring the need for adaptive, climate-resilient management strategies.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":169,"journal":{"name":"Fish and Fisheries","volume":"27 3","pages":"451-465"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146122173","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fisheries Trade and Blue Nutrient Flows in Pacific Island Countries","authors":"Keiko J. Nomura,&nbsp;Steven Manaʻoakamai Johnson,&nbsp;Jessica Gephart,&nbsp;Jacob G. Eurich","doi":"10.1111/faf.70062","DOIUrl":"10.1111/faf.70062","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are located in highly productive fishing regions that supply nutrient-rich fish to global markets. Marine fisheries are a critical source of protein and essential micronutrients for billions of people worldwide, supporting both local diets and global food security. International trade shapes modern blue food systems, influencing broader distributions and availability of these ‘blue nutrients’. Yet, the structure of these trade networks, the nutritional composition of exported fisheries, and the implications for local food security remain poorly understood. Using global marine fisheries trade data from 1996 to 2020 combined with species-level nutrient compositions, we analysed production, consumption and nutrient balances for 12 PICs and used network analysis to characterise the structure of international blue nutrient flows. Here we show that many PICs experience persistent net losses of essential nutrients, particularly vitamin B12, protein and fatty acids. This results in nutrient yields far below population needs, with only a few PICs (Vanuatu and Kiribati) meeting average requirements. Compared to global fisheries trade networks, regional PICs trade is more fragmented and less mutually connected, relying on a small number of intermediary countries (Papua New Guinea and Fiji). Despite high domestic production and consumption, 54% of blue nutrients are exported from PICs rather than retained locally, leaving local nutritional deficits unaddressed even as PICs supply global seafood markets. Combining trade, nutrient and network analyses can help inform strategies to increase nutrient retention, strengthen food security and support resilience for PICs in the modern blue food economy.</p>","PeriodicalId":169,"journal":{"name":"Fish and Fisheries","volume":"27 3","pages":"466-477"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/faf.70062","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146205032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Abrupt and Persistent Decline in Recruitment Success in Northeast Arctic Cod: A Review of Probable Causes","authors":"Edda Johannesen,&nbsp;Geir Ottersen,&nbsp;Florian Berg,&nbsp;Bjarte Bogstad,&nbsp;Padmini Dalpadado,&nbsp;Côme Denechaud,&nbsp;Elena Eriksen,&nbsp;Maria Fossheim,&nbsp;Håvard Guldbrandsen Frøysa,&nbsp;Torild Johansen,&nbsp;Knut Korsbrekke,&nbsp;Even Moland,&nbsp;Esben Moland Olsen,&nbsp;Anne Britt Sandø,&nbsp;Georg Skaret,&nbsp;Morten Skogen,&nbsp;Frode Vikebø","doi":"10.1111/faf.70074","DOIUrl":"10.1111/faf.70074","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Most of the previously large cod stocks in the North Atlantic are depleted to very low levels. A notable exception has been the Northeast Arctic cod inhabiting the Barents Sea. This cod stock reached a record high level around 2013, but since then has declined sharply, with older fish being fished out and few new recruits entering the stock. More specifically, since 2006 the average recruitment at age 3 per unit spawning stock biomass has dropped to a very low level. Here we review recent literature and data to evaluate potential causes of poor recruitment. We find that in most years the large spawning stock was successful in producing offspring up to the 0-group stage, but the survival thereafter was reduced—leading to few recruits into the fishable stock. Evidence points to consequences of northwards shifts of spawning locations, reduced inflow of <i>Calanus</i> and density dependent factors influencing pre-recruit survival at times when the spawning stock was at a record high level. However, large uncertainties in the causes of recruitment failure remain at a time when the Barents Sea ecosystem is experiencing unprecedented warming. A precautionary measure to avoid further decline and potential stock collapse in the current situation is to lower fishing pressure and improve management by setting reference points based on the recent period with low productivity. Including demographic characteristics like age diversity as explicit management targets to ensure spatial and temporal spread in spawning should be a goal for future method development.</p>","PeriodicalId":169,"journal":{"name":"Fish and Fisheries","volume":"27 3","pages":"643-659"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/faf.70074","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147380740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}