Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres最新文献

{"title":"CMIP6 Representation of Declining Sea Ice and Arctic Cyclones in the Current Climate","authors":"E. Valkonen,&nbsp;J. Cassano,&nbsp;E. Cassano,&nbsp;M. Seefeldt,&nbsp;C. Parker","doi":"10.1029/2024JD042388","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042388","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Arctic climate system is changing rapidly with important implications in the Arctic and beyond. The interaction between the sea ice and Arctic cyclones makes it an important topic to be understood in the warming climate. We analyzed an ensemble of Coupled Multimodel Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) model simulations from 1985 to 2014 to determine model skill in depicting Arctic cyclones and their relationship with sea ice. A comprehensive climatology of Arctic cyclones and sea ice concentrations (SIC) was produced and compared to the ERA5 reanalysis product. The models reproduced the observed sea ice spatial patterns and trend well. However, the models struggled to capture the concurrent patterns and trends in Arctic cyclone characteristics that were evident in the reanalysis data. The models underestimated local cyclogenesis in the Arctic, which led to an overall underestimation of Arctic cyclone counts. Lead/lag analysis of ERA5 data suggests that reduced sea ice in the warm season can drive increased cyclone counts in the following cold season, which then reduces SIC in the next warm season in a feedback cycle that appears to be missing from the CMIP6 models. The results also revealed deviations between CMIP6 and ERA5 cyclone intensities. The magnitude and sign of the intensity differences varied based on model resolution, surface roughness parameterization, and skill in the representation of cyclogenesis location. This work highlights the need to improve sea ice-atmosphere interactions and the representation of synoptic systems in the next generation of global models.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JD042388","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144624657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Source Apportionment of Organic Aerosol Using 14C and Organic Molecular Tracers at a Regional Background Site of the Yangtze River Delta Region, China","authors":"Changliu Wu,&nbsp;Fang Cao,&nbsp;Yuxian Zhang,&nbsp;Wenhuai Song,&nbsp;Qianli Ma,&nbsp;Xiaofang Jia,&nbsp;Lei Ren,&nbsp;Xiaoying Yang,&nbsp;Mingyuan Yu,&nbsp;Sönke Szidat,&nbsp;Yanlin Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2024JD043296","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD043296","url":null,"abstract":"<p>To clarify the relative importance of anthropogenic and biogenic sources on organic aerosol (OA) in the background atmosphere, fossil and nonfossil contributions to both primary and secondary OA in fine aerosols (PM_2.5) were quantified at the regional receptor site in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China by measurements of dual-carbon isotopes (¹⁴C and ¹³C) and organic tracers. Nonfossil sources dominated organic carbon (OC) with an average contribution of 58 ± 9%. Biogenic emissions dominated nonfossil OC during spring (68 ± 29%) and summer (86 ± 6%), while biomass burning emissions dominated in winter (87 ± 15%) and autumn (51 ± 8%). More than half of the biogenic-derived OC in spring (58 ± 23%) and summer (64 ± 21%) originated from secondary formation, with monoterpene (35 ± 16%) and isoprene (49 ± 25%) as main secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors, respectively. The SOC contributed the most anthropogenic-derived (i.e., fossil and biomass burning sources) OC with an average contribution of 71 ± 9%. In addition, anthropogenic OC was notably high during winter (93 ± 7%) and autumn (74 ± 5%), underscoring the significant impact of regional pollution transport on background aerosol. Correlations between anthropogenic pollutants and biogenic-derived SOC indicated that mixed contributions from anthropogenic and biogenic emissions promoted SOA formation. This interaction may partially explain the relatively higher fractions of SOC in nonfossil (&gt;60%) and fossil OC (&gt;70%) at the background site of the YRD region compared to other global background sites.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144615272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reducing Tropical Cyclone Activity in Global Climate Models by Evaporative Suppression","authors":"Gabriel Rios,&nbsp;Gabriel Vecchi,&nbsp;Wenchang Yang","doi":"10.1029/2024JD043302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD043302","url":null,"abstract":"<p>What would a world without tropical cyclones look like? Although such a world is unrealistic, addressing this question would reveal the role tropical cyclones (TCs) play in modulating the climate system. In this study, we begin to address this question by introducing a novel algorithm for reducing TC activity in TC-permitting global climate models (GCMs) through suppression of wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) at grid points where TC-like conditions are detected. This algorithm, abbreviated as “SWISHE,” was implemented in a suite of GCM simulations developed by NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and compared to a control suite of simulations with no perturbations. Application of SWISHE resulted in a model-mean 44% reduction of TC frequency compared to control simulations, with TCs of hurricane-strength reduced by approximately 90%. Aggregate analysis of TCs reveals that TCs in the SWISHE simulations are weaker, as peak 10-m horizontal wind speeds decrease by a model-mean of 3.9 m s⁻¹ and minimum sea-level pressures increase by a model-mean of 4.7 hPa. Composite analysis is used to confirm that SWISHE effectively suppressed latent heat fluxes in grid cells with TC-like conditions. The results presented herein are intended to provide a first step in establishing methodology to understand upscale impacts of TCs on the climate system.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JD043302","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144615271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterizing Greater Houston's Aerosol by Air Mass During TRACER","authors":"Seth A. Thompson,&nbsp;Bo Chen,&nbsp;Brianna H. Matthews,&nbsp;Ron Li,&nbsp;Christopher J. Nowotarski,&nbsp;Anita D. Rapp,&nbsp;Sarah D. Brooks","doi":"10.1029/2025JD043353","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD043353","url":null,"abstract":"<p>During the TRacking Aerosol and Convection interaction ExpeRiment (TRACER), a suite of aerosol and cloud measurements were made using the Texas A&amp;M Rapid Onsite Atmospheric Measurement Van (ROAM-V) mobile instrument platform. Joint ROAM-V/radiosonde deployments focused on sampling polluted marine and continental air masses to understand summertime convection along and across the sea-breeze front as it propagated through Houston. The polluted marine air mass at Seawolf Park, Galveston, TX was defined by two characteristic aerosol populations. Although the background total particle concentrations averaged 2,500 cm⁻³, the air mass was also influenced by frequent but irregular periods of ship emission with significantly higher aerosol concentrations at times exceeding 34,000 cm⁻³. Ship emission influenced periods, typically lasting &lt;10 min, contained smaller, less hygroscopic particles resulting in a 69% relative decline in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activated fraction at 1% supersaturation compared to background periods. Measurements in continental air masses northwest of Houston revealed an average aerosol concentration of 5,208 cm⁻³ with a <i>κ</i> value near 0.1 reasonably describing the CCN population, independent of particle size. In continental air masses, substantial differences in particle size and CCN activation over small distances (&lt;42 miles between sites) suggest considerable site-to-site variability in addition to the expected day-to-day differences. This small-scale variability makes it difficult to generalize continental air mass aerosol properties. Both coastal and inland locations had effective ice nucleating particles, but inland deployments observed the warmest nucleation temperature at −15.6°C compared to −17.8°C close to the coast. These measurements can reduce uncertainties in regional convection allowing models to improve understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025JD043353","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144611957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Dust Mineralogical Compositions on CALIOP-IIR-Based Retrievals of the Optical and Microphysical Properties of Dust Plumes","authors":"Dongchen Li,&nbsp;Yuheng Zhang,&nbsp;Masanori Saito,&nbsp;Ping Yang,&nbsp;Yongxiang Hu","doi":"10.1029/2025JD043829","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD043829","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mineral dust aerosols are an important constituent of the atmosphere that regulates the planetary energy budget through their interactions with radiation and influences on clouds and ecosystems. Due to diverse source regions and changes during long-range transport, dust aerosols exhibit varying mineralogical compositions, leading to distinct regional optical and microphysical properties. However, the impact of mineralogical composition on satellite-based dust property retrievals is far from being well understood. This study develops a physics-based synergistic retrieval system to infer two fundamental properties, dust aerosol optical thickness (DAOT) and effective radius, leveraging observations from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and Infrared Imaging Radiometer (IIR) onboard the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite. This algorithm relies on the TAMUdust2020 aerosol single-scattering database with a region- and mineralogy-dependent refractive index data set and does not depend on an empirical assumption about the lidar ratio. Through simulations and retrievals utilizing a region-specific dust optical property model, this study demonstrates that the measurements made by CALIOP and IIR, as well as the retrievals of DAOT and effective particle radius, are significantly influenced by the mineralogical composition of dust aerosols, exhibiting distinct behavior that varies depending on their source regions. This influence is particularly pronounced for dust aerosols originating from Taklamakan, Namib, Niger, and Australia, which underscores the importance of incorporating regional mineralogical variations into the retrieval process.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025JD043829","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144611958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Energy-Balance Decomposition of the Aerosol-Induced Changes on Surface Temperature Over South Asia","authors":"R. S. Akhila,&nbsp;Vijayakumar S. Nair,&nbsp;Anas Ibnu Basheer,&nbsp;Ajay Parottil,&nbsp;S. Suresh Babu","doi":"10.1029/2024JD043123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD043123","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Aerosol-radiation interactions decrease the solar radiation reaching the surface, which cools the surface and influences land-atmosphere interactions and affects the regional climate through various pathways. To estimate the change in radiative and nonradiative fluxes due to aerosol-radiation interactions, regional climate model simulations were carried out over the South Asian region. Using the energy balance equation, aerosol-induced changes in surface temperature are decomposed into its radiative (shortwave (SW) and longwave) and nonradiative (sensible heat flux (SHF), latent heat flux (LHF), and ground flux) components for different seasons. This study showed that the surface cooling due to the decrease in SW radiation is mainly compensated by the decrease in SHF in all seasons. The decrease in SHF is more than 50% of the decrease in SW radiation due to aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). Aerosol-induced changes in incoming longwave radiation have a cooling effect over the Indian region except over the western part of South Asia. The aerosol-induced changes in LHF are highly heterogeneous and insignificant except for monsoon season. Over IGP, the decrease in LHF compensates nearly 15% of the SW cooling due to aerosols during monsoon season. Over the Indian region, approximately 40%–50% of the SW cooling due to aerosols is translated to net change in surface temperature, whereas the remaining is adjusted by the decrease of SHF and LHF. Notably, the impact of aerosol-induced weakening of SHF remains unexplored but holds profound implications for the hydroclimate and air quality of the Indian subcontinent.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144611981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fusion of Satellite Imagery and Convection Features for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Short-Term Prediction","authors":"Wei Tian,&nbsp;Yuanyuan Chen,&nbsp;Haifeng Xu,&nbsp;Liguang Wu,&nbsp;Yonghong Zhang,&nbsp;Chunyi Xiang,&nbsp;Shifeng Hao","doi":"10.1029/2024JD041930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041930","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most impactful extreme disasters affecting humanity, and TC forecasting has become a crucial research area. Addressing the current issues of low utilization of infrared imagery information and insufficient extraction of domain knowledge, we employ objective techniques to extract convective features related to cloud organization from infrared imagery. These features, along with satellite imagery and historical intensity values, are selected as model inputs. This paper introduces a deep learning model designed for the short-term prediction of TC intensity in the Northwest Pacific by fusing satellite imagery and convective features (TCISP-fusion). We developed a spatiotemporal feature extraction module to capture high-level features from the spatio-temporal sequences of satellite imagery and convective features. Additionally, we introduced a spatiotemporal feature fusion module to integrate asymmetrically distributed convective features while minimizing information loss during feature extraction. Furthermore, we applied the Laplacian Pyramid Image Fusion algorithm to effectively combine observations from the infrared (IR) and water vapor (WV) channels. This method captures large-scale cloud system structures and retains small-scale detailed features, generating high-contrast fused imagery and reducing the complexity of input data. The TCISP-fusion model achieves a root mean square error of 10.87 kt for 24-hr intensity prediction of western North Pacific TCs. Compared to traditional and mainstream methods, our model achieves comparable accuracy while significantly reducing the required human and material resources. The data used ensure real-time applicability, making it highly valuable for operational applications.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144611961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sensitivity Study of Atmospheric DMS Simulated in WRF-Chem to Various Oceanic DMS Fields Over the South West Pacific","authors":"R. Salignat,&nbsp;C. Rose,&nbsp;S. Banson,&nbsp;S. Berthet,&nbsp;A. Lupascu,&nbsp;J. Uitz,&nbsp;M. Mallet,&nbsp;R. Seferian,&nbsp;M. Rocco,&nbsp;A. Colomb,&nbsp;E. Dunne,&nbsp;A. Saint-Macary,&nbsp;A. Marriner,&nbsp;C. S. Law,&nbsp;K. Sellegri","doi":"10.1029/2024JD042271","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042271","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Marine emission of the volatile gas dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is the most substantial source of natural sulfur in the global atmosphere. DMS is believed to play a significant role in the Earth's climate system as a precursor to new particle formation and cloud condensation nuclei in the pristine marine atmosphere. To simulate the global distribution of seawater DMS, atmospheric models use DMS climatologies. In this study, we tested the sensitivity of atmospheric DMS concentrations over the Southwest Pacific Ocean, simulated with the WRF-Chem regional model, to five seawater DMS climatologies developed over the last two decades together with seawater DMS inferred from a recently developed relationship from nanophytoplankton satellite retrievals. Comparisons with in situ observations recently obtained in the Southwest Pacific and the Southern Ocean revealed that oceanic DMS climatologies are less accurate for latitudes south of 65°S than between 40°S and 65°S. In addition, in our study area, the spatial distribution of marine DMS is more accurately reproduced in the 40–65°S latitudes when deduced from a surface ocean biological variable, particularly when using a recently derived relationship from nanophytoplankton satellite retrievals, rather than from observation-based climatologies. Simulated atmospheric DMS levels were sensitive to the oceanic DMS climatology used but the atmospheric DMS concentration variability was mostly dependent on the atmospheric dynamics. Atmospheric DMS concentrations and variability measured off the New-Zealand coast are fairly well reproduced in WRF-Chem using accurate phytoplanktonic assemblages and the nanophytoplankton-related seawater DMS concentration.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144598203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of Resolution on Heavy-Precipitating Storms in Climate Model Hindcasts","authors":"Wen-Ying Wu,&nbsp;Hsi-Yen Ma","doi":"10.1029/2024JD042720","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042720","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The present study investigates the impact of horizontal resolutions on heavy-precipitating storms using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version2 (E3SMv2) at low (∼100 km, LR) and high (∼25 km, HR) resolutions through short-range hindcasts. The short-range hindcast approach ensures a faithful comparison of model resolution in simulating the same storm events under a controlled large-scale environment. Using a phenomenon-based framework, we attribute precipitation to specific storm types: tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Our findings show that E3SM hindcasts with both HR and LR configurations significantly underestimate storm-associated precipitation intensity but overestimate precipitation from other sources. Furthermore, both HR and LR hindcasts face significant challenges in accurately simulating extreme precipitation events, particularly over MCS hotspots. Nevertheless, HR simulations capture more detailed and intense precipitation patterns with an improved representation of storm dynamics. HR hindcasts produce 16% more storm precipitation compared to LR. For precipitation extremes, HR simulates a 33% higher 99th percentile precipitation magnitudes compared to LR, and most of the increment comes from these four heavy-precipitating storm types. The increase in precipitation mainly comes from stratiform precipitation rather than convective precipitation. The improvement in HR simulations varies across different storm types with TC showing the largest improvement. The phenomenon-based approach provides important insights into precipitation simulations especially for extremes. Our results emphasize the need for further refinement in high-resolution models to improve the accuracy of precipitation predictions, which is crucial for better understanding and mitigating climate change impacts.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JD042720","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144598526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the Intensity of Heatwaves in a Warming Climate at the Urban Scale: A Case Study of the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona","authors":"Sergi Ventura,&nbsp;J. R. Miro,&nbsp;Ricard Segura-Barrero,&nbsp;Fei Chen,&nbsp;Alberto Martilli,&nbsp;Changhai Liu,&nbsp;Kyoko Ikeda,&nbsp;Gara Villalba","doi":"10.1029/2025JD043559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD043559","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Given that more than half of the world's population currently resides in cities, further understanding of the potential impact of future climate change on urban areas is needed. In this regard, we project recent heatwave (HW) episodes in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (AMB) with future climate conditions until 2100 using the pseudo global warming method. First, we determine all the HWs that occurred in the AMB during the last climatological period of 30 years (1991–2020) and simulate each individual event using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model at high-resolution. Then, these historical HW events are resimulated with the modified atmospheric conditions of the midcentury (2041–2070) and the end of the century (2071–2100) according to the scenario SSP3-7.0, in which CO₂ emissions are projected to almost double from current levels by 2100 following a low emission reduction scenario. In the AMB, HW intensity is expected to increase by 2.5°C and 4.2°C in the mid- and end-of-the-century periods, respectively. Higher temperatures are related to the stationary and stable synoptic pattern, which, among the four analyzed, is projected to experience the greatest intensification in the future. The geopotential height at 500 hPa could increase up to 100 geopotential meters (gpm) by the end of the century, leading to values up to 6,050 gpm, which indicates changes in thermodynamic and dynamic effects resulting in potentially warmer HW episodes. The results obtained can aid in understanding the expected changes for this century, which could facilitate the formulation of heat mitigation and adaptation strategies, particularly for the most exposed areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":"130 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025JD043559","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144598204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}