Toward Real-Time Assessment of Infrasound Event Detection Capability Using Deep Learning-Based Transmission Loss Estimation

Abstract

Accurate modeling of infrasound transmission loss is crucial for assessing the performance of the International Monitoring System, which monitors compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty by detecting atmospheric explosions. This modeling supports the design and maintenance of the operating monitoring network. State-of-the-art propagation modeling tools enable transmission loss to be finely simulated using atmospheric models. However, the computational cost prohibits the exploration of a large parameter space in operational monitoring applications. To address this, recent studies made use of a deep learning algorithm capable of making transmission loss predictions almost instantaneously. However, the use of nudged atmospheric models leads to an incomplete representation of the medium, and the absence of temperature as an input makes the algorithm incompatible with long-range propagation. In this study, we address these limitations by using both wind and temperature fields as inputs to a neural network, simulated up to 130 km altitude and 4,000 km distance. We exploit convolutional and recurrent layers to capture spatially and range-dependent features embedded in realistic atmospheric models, improving the overall performance. The neural network reaches an average error of 4 dB compared to full parabolic equation simulations and provides epistemic and data-related uncertainty estimates. Its evaluation on the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption demonstrates its prediction capability using atmospheric conditions and frequencies not included in the training. This represents a significant step toward near real-time assessment of International Monitoring System detection thresholds of explosive sources.