{"title":"Impact of U.S. Market Access on Local Labor Markets in Vietnam","authors":"Trung X. Hoang, Ha Nguyen","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8366","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8366","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the impact of U.S. market access on local labor markets in a developing country, Vietnam. The study finds that following the implementation of the Vietnam–United States bilateral trade agreement in December 2001, manufacturing employment increased in provinces that were more exposed to U.S. tariff cuts. In those provinces, employment also increased in many service sectors, reflecting strong spillovers of job gains. The new job opportunities have attracted labor from agriculture, thus reducing agricultural employment. The paper examines three possible channels of job gain spillovers, namely, demand, production, and real estate. Although there is evidence for all three channels, the demand channel is the most important.","PeriodicalId":152062,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: International Development Efforts & Strategies eJournal","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114691911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do Developing Countries Enjoy Faster Poverty Reduction as Their Initial Poverty Incidences Decline Over Time? A Dynamic Panel Analysis","authors":"Yusi Ouyang, A. Shimeles, E. Thorbecke","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3153353","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3153353","url":null,"abstract":"Empirical evidence in the sparse literature on poverty convergence currently relies on cross-sectional analysis, where Less Developed Countries (LDCs) starting out poorer are found to have enjoyed no faster subsequent poverty reduction during the past three decades than those starting out richer, as initial poverty retards growth and makes it less effective in reducing poverty. Applying a dynamic panel approach to four panel data sets including two covering some 90 LDCs from 1977-2014 and two covering, respectively, 42 Ethiopian and 33 Rwandan regions during 1995-2010 and 2000-2010; this study finds that LDCs as well as Ethiopian and Rwanda regions do enjoy faster subsequent poverty reduction within themselves as their initial poverty incidences decline over time. Our analysis also finds initial poverty as having little direct effect on growth in LDCs, except in SSA where higher initial poverty is associated with faster growth.","PeriodicalId":152062,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: International Development Efforts & Strategies eJournal","volume":"172 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116144305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Riccardo Pelizzo, Lucas Katera, Stephen Mwombela, Lulu Olan’g
{"title":"Poverty and Development in Tanzania","authors":"Riccardo Pelizzo, Lucas Katera, Stephen Mwombela, Lulu Olan’g","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3241305","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3241305","url":null,"abstract":"The paper investigates the relationship between development, as measured by the GNI per capita and lived poverty in Tanzania which is measured on the basis of whether and how often respondents go, in the course of one year, without food, water, medical care, cooking fuel and cash income. By using the data collected by Afrobarometer in Tanzania, we are able to create one set of indicators that capture the extension of lived poverty, that is what percentage of the respondents, experiences deprivation, but we also develop a series of indicators that capture the severity of lived poverty, that is how frequently respondents experience this problem. Our statistical analyses reveal that while Tanzanian progress along the developmental path did not have a significant impact on the extension of lived poverty, it made a large and significant contribution to reduce its severity.","PeriodicalId":152062,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: International Development Efforts & Strategies eJournal","volume":"77 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129352920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
L. Christiaensen, Joachim De Weerdt, Bert Ingelaere, R. Kanbur
{"title":"Migrants, Towns, Poverty and Jobs: Insights from Tanzania","authors":"L. Christiaensen, Joachim De Weerdt, Bert Ingelaere, R. Kanbur","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8340","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8340","url":null,"abstract":"For a long time, the urbanization and development discourse has coincided with a focus on economic growth and big cities. Yet, much of the world's new urbanization is taking place in smaller urban entities (towns), and the composition of urbanization may well bear on the speed of poverty reduction. This paper reviews the latter question within the context of Tanzania. It starts from the observation that migration to towns contributed much more to poverty reduction than migration to cities because many more (poor) rural migrants ended up in Tanzania's towns than its cities, despite larger welfare gains from moving to the city. Drawing on the findings from a series of studies, looking at this from different angles (theoretical and empirical, quantitative and qualitative), the paper shows how towns are better at enabling the rural poor to access off-farm employment and exit poverty because they are more nearby. It concludes with a call for greater consideration of the role of towns in accelerating Africa's poverty reduction.","PeriodicalId":152062,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: International Development Efforts & Strategies eJournal","volume":"105 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116358442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Policy Learning, Evaluation, and Aid Effectiveness: Mining Lessons on Project and Program Success from the Asian Development Bank","authors":"Michael Howlett, N. Goyal","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3116624","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3116624","url":null,"abstract":"Lesson drawing, or learning from past policies or programs, can improve current or future policies or programs and, thereby, lead to policy success. This requires various types of evaluations that identify and highlight different causal relationships in the system. However, the literature on policy evaluation has little to say about how such evaluations work in practice. For example, in the case of overseas development assistance, although multiple studies examine factors that contribute to aid effectiveness, they do not use and build on lessons from internal evaluations of aid projects and programs. Using data on project and program evaluations from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), this paper compares the lessons from external evaluations on aid effectiveness with those of internal evaluations. It critically examines ‘lessons learned’ by the ADB in over 950 sovereign interventions across 38 countries in Asia-Pacific during 1996-2016 using relatively new ‘data science’ approach of text mining. It specifically analyzes term frequencies, proportions in evaluations of successful and unsuccessful interventions, and correlations to understand the content and content relationships of the lessons learnt. It finds that while internal evaluations validate and even go beyond several micro and meso level lessons of external evaluations – such as within country and sector variation and project characteristics of (un)successful interventions – they say less about macro level, theoretical relationships that set the context for aid effectiveness, such as per capita economic growth or the level of democracy in the borrowing country. The findings suggest the need for a multilevel evaluation framework consisting of micro, meso, and macro evaluations which pick up different factors that influence success and failure and, hence, contribute to better lesson drawing.","PeriodicalId":152062,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: International Development Efforts & Strategies eJournal","volume":"108 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131131341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Good and Useless FDI: The Growth Effects of Greenfield Investment and Mergers and Acquisitions","authors":"Philipp Harms, Pierre‐Guillaume Méon","doi":"10.1111/roie.12302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12302","url":null,"abstract":"We explore the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth, distinguishing between mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and “greenfield†investment. A simple model underlines that, unlike greenfield investment, M&As partly represent a rent accruing to previous owners, and do not necessarily contribute to expanding the host country's capital stock. Greenfield FDI should therefore have a stronger impact on growth than M&A sales. This hypothesis is supported by our empirical results that are based on a panel of up to 127 industrialized, emerging, and developing countries over 1990 to 2010.","PeriodicalId":152062,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: International Development Efforts & Strategies eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128437416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Donaldson, Christos Koulovatianos, Jian Li, R. Mehra
{"title":"Demographics and FDI: Lessons from China's One-Child Policy","authors":"J. Donaldson, Christos Koulovatianos, Jian Li, R. Mehra","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3289940","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3289940","url":null,"abstract":"Lucas (1990) argues that the neoclassical adjustment process fails to explain the relative paucity of FDI inflows from rich to poor countries. In this paper we consider a natural experiment: using China as the treated country and India as the control, we show that the dynamics of the relative FDI flows subsequent to the implementation of China’s one-child policy, as seen in the data, are consistent with neoclassical fundamentals. In particular, following the introduction of the one-child policy in China, the capital-labor (K/L) ratio of China increased relative to that of India, and, simultaneously, relative FDI inflows into China vs. India declined. These observations are explained in the context of a simple neoclassical OLG paradigm. The adjustment mechanism works as follows: the reduction in the (urban) labor force due to the one-child policy increases the savings per capita. This increases the K/L ratio and reduces the marginal product of capital (MPK). The reduction in MPK (relative to India) reduces the relative attractiveness of investment in China and is thus associated with lower FDI/GDP ratios. Our paper contributes to the nascent literature exploring demographic transitions and their effects on FDI flows.","PeriodicalId":152062,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: International Development Efforts & Strategies eJournal","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125545161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"'Yes-Man' Firms: Government Campaigns and Policy Positioning of Businesses in China","authors":"Megumi Naoi, Weiyi Shi, Boliang Zhu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2925386","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2925386","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We demonstrate material origin of strategic preference expression in authoritarian systems, where firms express dissent against or conform to the government's position based on what they seek to obtain from the government: politically powerful firms are more likely to dissent to negotiate policy concessions while politically weak firms are more likely to conform to the government's position to obtain side payments or to avoid punishment. We test this argument using survey experiments with firm executives in China. A treatment that signals the government's commitment to liberalize inward foreign direct investment increases the percentage of firms that report to “benefit” from the policy between 14 and 36 percentage points. Powerful firms (state- and foreign-owned) conform the least to the government and politically vulnerable firms and the recipients of government contracts conform the most. Our results suggest that political standing is a key driver of business position-taking in China.","PeriodicalId":152062,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: International Development Efforts & Strategies eJournal","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127933372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Whys of Social Exclusion: Insights from Behavioral Economics","authors":"K. Hoff, J. Walsh","doi":"10.1093/WBRO/LKX010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/WBRO/LKX010","url":null,"abstract":"All over the world, people are prevented from participating fully in society through mechanisms that go beyond the structural and institutional barriers that rational choice theory identifies (—poverty, exclusion by law or force, taste-based or statistical discrimination, and externalities from social networks differentiated by socioeconomic status). This paper discusses four additional mechanisms that can be explained by bounded rationality: (a) implicit discrimination, (b) self-stereotyping and self-censorship, (c) rules of thumb adapted to disadvantaged environments that are dysfunctional in more privileged settings, and (d) “adaptive preferences,” in which an excluded group comes to view its exclusion as natural. Institutions, if they are stable, come to have cognitive foundations---concepts, categories, social identities, and worldviews---through which people mediate their perceptions of themselves and the world around them. Abolishing or reforming a discriminatory institution may have little effect on the social categories it created; groups previously discriminated against by law may remain excluded through custom and habits of the mind. Recognizing new forces of social exclusion, behavioral economics identifies ways to offset them. Some interventions have had very consequential impacts.","PeriodicalId":152062,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: International Development Efforts & Strategies eJournal","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133388238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Meta‐Analysis of the Indirect Impact of Foreign Direct Investment in Old and New EU Member States: Understanding Productivity Spillovers","authors":"Randolph Luca Bruno, M. Cipollina","doi":"10.1111/twec.12587","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12587","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we summarise, combine and explain recent findings from firm-level empirical literature focusing on the indirect impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic performance, measured as productivity, in the Enlarged Europe. We have reviewed 52 quantitative studies, released between 2000 and 2015 and codified 1,133 estimates. We run a regression of regressions which measures the strength of the FDI–productivity relationship. Taking advantage of large number of high-quality studies on FDI and its role in explaining the growth in firms’ productivity in Europe, we adopt recent meta-regression analysis methods—funnel asymmetry and precision estimate tests and precision-effect estimate with standard errors—to explain the heterogeneous impact of FDI. This paper assesses the country-specific impact of FDI on firms’ performance, after taking publication selection bias, econometric modelling and the individual studies’ characteristics fully into account. Our results show that on average FDI has a positive indirect impact on productivity. The impact is especially significant in selected European countries, and we interpret this as a sign of better absorptive capacities in those countries.","PeriodicalId":152062,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: International Development Efforts & Strategies eJournal","volume":"373 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116325210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}