International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health最新文献

{"title":"Effect of manual handling weight for lifting and carrying on the severity of acute occupational low back pain.","authors":"Kazuyuki Iwakiri, Keiichi Miki, Takeshi Sasaki","doi":"10.1007/s00420-025-02148-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00420-025-02148-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>Preventing the progression of occupational low back pain (LBP) is a critical occupational safety and health concern, alongside reducing its incidence. Manual handling of heavy loads may increase LBP severity. This study investigates the impact of lifting and carrying weights on LBP severity in affected workers.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A total of 2418 cases of acute occupational LBP, each resulting in more than four days of absence from work, were analyzed. These cases, reported as industrial accidents in Japan 2018-2019, were categorized into four weight-handling groups: < 10, 10-20, 20-30, and ≥ 30 kg. LBP severity was defined based on the duration of work absence, as determined by a physician's diagnosis at the onset, and was categorized into four groups: 4-7, 8-14, 15-30, and ≥ 31 days. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to assess the relationship between handling weights and absence duration.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The odds ratio (OR) for absence of ≥ 31 days compared with 4-7 days increased with heavier handling weights. Notably, workers handling 30 kg or more weights had a significantly higher OR than those under 10 kg (OR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.11-2.77). The ORs for absence of 8-14 and 15-30 days compared with 4-7 days showed no significant association with handling weight.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Lifting and carrying heavier loads were associated with increased LBP severity and prolonged work absences. Minimizing manual handling loads may be a practical strategy to reduce the severity of acute occupational LBP and prevent prolonged work absences.</p>","PeriodicalId":13761,"journal":{"name":"International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health","volume":" ","pages":"507-513"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12331803/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144142479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effect of an app-based health intervention on somatic symptoms among employees of the DHL Group: a longitudinal pilot study.","authors":"Naby May, Stefanie Kasten, Thomas Schwan, Matthias Scharle, Andreas Tautz, Stephan Letzel, Pavel Dietz","doi":"10.1007/s00420-025-02145-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00420-025-02145-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Somatic symptoms significantly contribute to absenteeism and healthcare costs, particularly in physically demanding professions such as postal and delivery services. The FC-Fit Challenge, an app-based workplace health intervention, aims to promote healthier lifestyles through personalized feedback, social interaction, and professional guidance, targeting lifestyle changes and reducing somatic symptoms.</p><p><strong>Objectives: </strong>This study evaluated the effect of the FC-Fit Winterchallenge 2021/22 on somatic symptoms over time, considering sociodemographic and work-related differences, and identified predictors of somatic symptoms to inform workplace health strategies.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A longitudinal design with three measurement points was employed: at the start of the intervention (T1), immediately post-intervention (T2), and three-month follow-up (T3). At T1, 497 participants completed the survey. Sociodemographic and work-related variables, health behaviors, and mental health indicators were analyzed. Multiple regression identified significant predictors of somatic symptoms.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Somatic symptoms significantly decreased post-intervention (T1: 7.0 ± 4.6 vs. T2: 5.9 ± 4.5, p < 0.001), with sustained effects at T3. Women, full-time employees, and administrative staff showed the most pronounced reductions. Predictors of higher somatic symptom severity included female gender, lower education, painkiller use, stress, and burnout, while high physical activity was associated with lower severity. Subgroup analysis revealed variability in intervention effectiveness based on sociodemographic and occupational factors.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The FC-Fit Challenge is a promising, scalable tool for workplace health promotion. Tailoring interventions to specific employee profiles and addressing predictors like stress and burnout can optimize outcomes. Future studies should target underrepresented groups, such as delivery workers, and use randomized controlled designs to validate findings.</p>","PeriodicalId":13761,"journal":{"name":"International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health","volume":" ","pages":"549-572"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12331833/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144325616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Association between shift/night work and irregular periods and period pain among two cohorts of Australian women 16 years apart: findings from the Australian longitudinal study on women's health.","authors":"Biresaw Wassihun Alemu, Michael Waller, Leigh R Tooth","doi":"10.1007/s00420-025-02152-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00420-025-02152-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>To examine the associations between shift or night work and irregular periods and period pain among two cohorts of Australian women, using data collected 16 years apart.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used data from the 1989-95 (n = 6,767) and 1973-78 (n = 7,527) cohorts from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, when participants were aged 24-30 years. Logistic regression models were used to assess the association between night or shift work and severe period pain and irregular periods, and to compare them to non-shift or night workers.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Women from the 1989-95 cohort who did night work reported higher odds of having experienced irregular periods (AOR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.59) compared to those who undertook shift work. However, there was no association between night work and severe period pain (AOR = 1.10, 95% CI: 0.86, 1.41). Among women in the 1973-78 cohort, neither severe period pain (AOR = 1.20, 95% CI: 0.82, 1.76) nor irregular periods (AOR = 1.38, 95% CI: 0.92, 2.06) were associated with night work. Across both cohorts, no associations were found between shift or night work and irregular or severe period pain when comparing shift or night workers combined to non-shift or night workers.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Night workers reported higher odds of irregular periods compared to shift workers in the 1989-95 cohort; however, no consistent association was found with severe period pain. Future research should investigate whether this association is causal. Supportive workplace practices may benefit night workers experiencing irregular periods.</p>","PeriodicalId":13761,"journal":{"name":"International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health","volume":" ","pages":"537-547"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12331763/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144316854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cumulative asbestos exposure as a key predictor of long-term pleuropulmonary outcomes: insights from decades of follow-up.","authors":"Ladislav Štěpánek, Marie Nakládalová, Magdaléna Janošíková, Lubomír Štěpánek, Alena Boriková","doi":"10.1007/s00420-025-02143-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00420-025-02143-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>Occupational asbestos exposure was widespread before regulatory bans, and it remains a risk during renovations or demolitions of older buildings. While asbestos-related diseases are well-documented, less is known about minor radiological changes in exposed individuals. This longitudinal study aimed to identify predictors of pleural and parenchymal lung disorders in individuals with previous occupational asbestos exposure, focusing on both established asbestos-related diseases and minor radiological abnormalities.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The study tracked 445 former employees (334 men, 111 women) of two Czech asbestos-processing plants, who underwent regular examinations from the 1980s to December 2022. Cox proportional hazards regression models were employed to analyse predictors of asbestos-related diseases, as well as minor radiological findings alone.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Over a median latency of 37 years, 127 participants (28.5%) developed asbestos-related diseases, mainly pleural mesothelioma (59 cases). An additional 168 participants (37.8%) exhibited minor radiological findings, predominantly pleural plaques (129 cases), while 150 (33.7%) had no abnormalities. Substantial cumulative exposure was a strong predictor for minor radiological findings (odds ratio [OR] 1.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18-3.35, p = 0.010) and any endpoint, including diseases (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.18-3.02, p = 0.008). Respiratory symptoms and impaired spirometry results significantly increased the likelihood of endpoint occurrence. No significant differences emerged between settings with predominantly chrysotile exposure and those with a chrysotile-crocidolite mixture.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>This study highlights the predictive value of cumulative exposure and the need for ongoing surveillance of occupationally exposed individuals to better understand radiological changes, their significance, and to refine risk assessment models.</p>","PeriodicalId":13761,"journal":{"name":"International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health","volume":" ","pages":"497-505"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12331824/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144126280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Synergic effect of arsenic exposure related methylation changes in three cohorts exposed to levels of this toxicant.","authors":"Katarzyna Ewa Sokolowska, Jacek Antoniewski, Marta Sobalska-Kwapis, Dominik Strapagiel, Wojciech Marciniak, Jan Lubiński, Tomasz Kazimierz Wojdacz","doi":"10.1007/s00420-025-02147-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00420-025-02147-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>The results of studies assessing impact of arsenic exposure on methylome are to large extent inconsistent. To contribute to understanding of effect of arsenic exposure on methylome of the exposed cells, we assess the impact of low-level arsenic exposure on methylome of blood cells in three cohorts of exposed individuals.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The Infinium MethylationEPIC array (Illumina Inc.) was used for genome-wide methylation profiling and robust linear regression to identify arsenic-related methylation changes in blood cells from healthy individuals with a 12-year cancer-free follow-up and breast cancer patients, sampled on average 4.29 years before diagnosis, as well as methylomics data from cord blood samples of Biomarkers of Exposure to Arsenic cohort.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Our analysis identified a 2,453 arsenic-associated methylation changes in blood from healthy individuals, 9,662 in breast cancer patients and 6,745 in cord blood samples. Similarly to previous studies methylation changes that we identified in each cohort, overlapped only to some extent. However, molecular processes linked to identified methylation changes were very similar in each of the cohorts. And included pathways that could be clearly associated with the adverse effects of arsenic exposure and specifically cancer in the cohort of cancer patients. Moreover, the genomic regions harboring identified in each cohort methylation changes were similar and predominantly included regions participating in regulation of gene transcription.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Overall, our findings show that specificity of arsenic related methylation changes is low but the impact of these changes on cell physiology is very similar across three cohorts we studded.</p>","PeriodicalId":13761,"journal":{"name":"International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health","volume":" ","pages":"515-523"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12331777/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144142483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exposure to seasonal PM_2.5 derived from biomass burning increased the risk of vitamin D deficiency in healthy perimenopausal women.","authors":"Mattabhorn Phimphilai, Sridanai Watthanawongkeeree, Worapaka Manosroi","doi":"10.1007/s00420-025-02149-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00420-025-02149-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>Southeast Asia faces problems with seasonal air pollution from biomass burning. Data regarding vitamin D deficiency and seasonal air pollution is limited. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the effects of seasonal air pollutants on vitamin D deficiency and the predictors of vitamin D deficiency during haze periods.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This prospective cohort study included 77 peri-menopausal women. All participants were enrolled and followed at the peak and low pollutant periods, respectively. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) was measured at both points. Data regarding 24 h particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM_2.5) was obtained from the database of the Pollution Control Department of Thailand.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The ambient 24 h PM_2.5 was higher (46.9 ± 4.7 µg/m³ vs. 11.2 ± 5.1 µg/m³, P < 0.001) at the peak pollutant period. In contrast, serum 25(OH)D level was 18.8% lower, and the incidence of vitamin D deficiency was 45.4% higher at the peak pollutant period compared to those at the low pollutant period. Seasonal air pollutants were associated with an increased risk of vitamin D deficiency by 3.5 folds [OR 3.5 (95% CI 1.1-14.6)]. The ambient 24 h PM_2.5 during the peak pollutant periods was an independent predictor of vitamin D deficiency. Its threshold of 20 µg/m³ demonstrated sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 75.0%, 85.7%, and 78.0%, respectively, to predict the occurrence of vitamin D deficiency.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Seasonal air pollutants increase the risk of vitamin D deficiency. The ambient 24 h PM_2.5 at 20 µg/m³ demonstrated high diagnostic performance for vitamin D deficiency.</p>","PeriodicalId":13761,"journal":{"name":"International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health","volume":" ","pages":"487-495"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12331863/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144110390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mortality in firefighters: extended follow-up of a Danish cohort, 1970-2021.","authors":"Julie Elbaek Pedersen, Kajsa Ugelvig Petersen, Maria Helena Guerra Andersen, Anne Thoustrup Saber, Ulla Vogel, Niels E Ebbehøj, Tina Kold Jensen, Regitze Sølling Wils, Jens Peter Bonde, Johnni Hansen","doi":"10.1007/s00420-025-02150-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00420-025-02150-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>Firefighters face numerous occupational hazards that raise concerns regarding adverse health effects and mortality. Therefore, we conducted an updated evaluation of mortality in a cohort of Danish firefighters by adding 7 years of follow-up.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The updated cohort comprised 11,888 male Danish firefighters, and the assessment of mortality spanned from 1970 through 2021. Data on vital status, emigration and mortality was retrieved from the Danish Civil Registration System and the Danish Register of Causes of Death. Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMRs) were calculated for the cohort, along with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), utilizing a population of employees from the general working population as a reference.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>For the firefighters, we observed lower overall mortality (SMR = 0.78; 95% CI: 0.74-0.82), while cancer mortality was even (SMR = 0.99; 95% CI: 0.92-1.08). Significantly reduced mortality was observed for mental disorders, conditions of the nervous system and sensory organs, pneumonia, non-traffic related accidents, suicide, as well as symptoms and ill-defined conditions. Mortality rates for most other causes were also reduced, including circulatory and respiratory diseases. However, higher mortality from specific cancers were observed, including cancer of the thyroid gland, kidney, urinary bladder and brain. Finally, we noticed a trend indicating a higher mortality rate among full-time firefighters when compared to their part-time counterparts.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Our findings in a large cohort of Danish firefighters generally indicated a decrease in all-cause mortality as well as from most specific causes compared to other employees. However, slightly higher mortality rates were observed for certain cancers in full-time firefighters.</p>","PeriodicalId":13761,"journal":{"name":"International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health","volume":" ","pages":"525-535"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144293733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cytogenetic evaluation of vaginal and buccal epithelium of pregnant women living in conditions of radioactive, chemical and combined environmental contamination.","authors":"Anton V Korsakov, Alexandra S Domakhina, Vladislav P Troshin, Olga Yu Milushkina","doi":"10.1007/s00420-025-02144-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00420-025-02144-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Many pollutants constantly worsen the ecological situation, thereby causing irreparable harm to the health of the population. Technogenic impact on the biosphere has become one of the significant factors dictating our conditions of existence on Earth.</p><p><strong>Purpose of the study: </strong>to conduct a comparative analysis of the frequency of cytogenetic abnormalities, indicators of proliferation disorders and nuclear destruction of vaginal and buccal epithelium of pregnant women 26-33 years old living in conditions of radioactive, chemical and combined environmental contamination of the Bryansk region.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>micronucleus test, staining method by Kvik, fluorescence method, immunocytochemistry method, Shapiro-Wilk test, Mann-Whitney U test.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>the frequency of cytogenetic abnormalities, indicators of proliferation disorders and nuclear destruction in the vaginal epithelium of pregnant women living in areas of radioactive, chemical and combined environmental contamination is 1.3-4.9 times higher, and in the buccal epithelium 1.6-7.8 times higher compared to ecologically safe (control) areas (p < 0.01-0.001). The combined effect of radioactive contamination and chemical pollution resulted in a significantly higher (increase from 12.8% to 81.4% in vaginal epithelium and from 22.6% to 2.3 times in buccal epithelium) frequency of cells with micronuclei, cells with protrusions, binuclear cells, cells with double nuclei, as well as cells with karyopyknosis and karyolysis in pregnant women compared to areas with only one pollution factor.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The results demonstrate the synergistic effects of radiation contamination and chemical pollution on the cytogenetic status of pregnant women.</p>","PeriodicalId":13761,"journal":{"name":"International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health","volume":" ","pages":"475-486"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144191761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Association between exposure to air pollution and risk of Dyssomnia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.","authors":"Zhiqiu Cao, Xintao Shi, Li Sun, Zhanhong Fan, Akinyemi Lydia Idowu, Feng Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s00420-025-02137-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00420-025-02137-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Typically affecting people's quality of life, dyssomnia is among the most prevalent chronic illnesses worldwide. A positive correlation between air pollution and dyssomnia has been demonstrated by epidemiological research. However, no meta-analyses evaluating the relationship between the prevalence of dyssomnia in people of all ages and air pollutants (PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, SO₂, and O₃) were found.</p><p><strong>Objectives: </strong>Conduct a meta-analysis utilizing data from current studies (until 2024) to provide reliable insights into the relationship between air pollution exposure and the likelihood of dyssomnia prevalence.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We systematically searched three databases for studies on air pollution and dyssomnia up to January 15, 2024. Random-effects models were used to estimate the pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Subgroup analyses, funnel plots, and meta-regression analyses were also performed.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>There were 11 studies from 4 different nations that involved 3,328,183 participants in total. The odds ratios (ORs) for PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ were 1.29 (1.16-1.44) and 1.13 (1.03-1.23) per 10 µg/m³ increase in pollutants, respectively. The OR per 10 µg/m³ increment of gaseous pollutants were 1.06 (1.00-1.12) for NO₂ and 1.16 (1.04-1.31) for O₃. No significant association was observed between SO₂ and dyssomnia. Adults are more sensitive to air pollution than children or adolescents for that the effects of PM_2.5、PM₁₀ and SO₂ were significantly stronger in adults than children or adolescents. The effect of air pollution on dyssomnia was more significant in developed countries than in developing countries. There was a difference in the subgroup test for PM₁₀ between developed and developing countries.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>This meta-analysis implies the relationship between the air pollution and dyssomnia. Economic status and age may influence the effect. It was suggested to provide guidance for disease prevention and explored potential avenues for further research.</p>","PeriodicalId":13761,"journal":{"name":"International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health","volume":" ","pages":"369-384"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143718752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting prolonged work absence due to musculoskeletal disorders: development, validation, and clinical usefulness of prognostic prediction models.","authors":"Tarjei Rysstad, Margreth Grotle, Adrian C Traeger, Lene Aasdahl, Ørjan Nesse Vigdal, Fiona Aanesen, Britt Elin Øiestad, Are Hugo Pripp, Gwenllian Wynne-Jones, Kate M Dunn, Egil A Fors, Steven J Linton, Anne Therese Tveter","doi":"10.1007/s00420-025-02129-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00420-025-02129-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>Given the lack of robust prognostic models for early identification of individuals at risk of work disability, this study aimed to develop and externally validate three models for prolonged work absence among individuals on sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We developed three multivariable logistic regression models using data from 934 individuals on sick leave for 4-12 weeks due to musculoskeletal disorders, recruited through the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration. The models predicted three outcomes: (1) > 90 consecutive sick days, (2) > 180 consecutive sick days, and (3) any new or increased work assessment allowance or disability pension within 12 months. Each model was externally validated in a separate cohort of participants (8-12 weeks of sick leave) from a different geographical region in Norway. We evaluated model performance using discrimination (c-statistic), calibration, and assessed clinical usefulness using decision curve analysis (net benefit). Bootstrapping was used to adjust for overoptimism.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>All three models showed good predictive performance in the external validation sample, with c-statistics exceeding 0.76. The model predicting > 180 days performed best, demonstrating good calibration and discrimination (c-statistic 0.79 (95% CI 0.73-0.85), and providing net benefit across a range of decision thresholds from 0.10 to 0.80.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>These models, particularly the one predicting > 180 days, may facilitate secondary prevention strategies and guide future clinical trials. Further validation and refinement are necessary to optimise the models and to test their performance in larger samples.</p>","PeriodicalId":13761,"journal":{"name":"International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health","volume":" ","pages":"385-397"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12238208/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143811270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}