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Do Permanent Shocks Explain Income Levels? A Common Cycle Common Trend Analysis of Regional Income Levels for China 永久性冲击能解释收入水平吗?中国区域收入水平的共同周期共同趋势分析
Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review Pub Date : 2008-12-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2008.00427.x
P. Narayan, S. Narayan
{"title":"Do Permanent Shocks Explain Income Levels? A Common Cycle Common Trend Analysis of Regional Income Levels for China","authors":"P. Narayan, S. Narayan","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0106.2008.00427.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2008.00427.x","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we analyse per capita income levels of China's three main regions: the western region, the eastern region and the central region using common cycle and common trend tests. Our main contribution is that we impose the common cycle and common trend restrictions in decomposing shocks into permanent and transitory components. We find that: (i) there is evidence for two cointegrating relationships and one common cycle; and (ii) the variance decomposition analysis of shocks provides evidence that over short horizons, permanent shocks play a large role in explaining variations in regional per capita incomes.","PeriodicalId":134313,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review","volume":"98 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114212521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The USA as the ‘Demander of Last Resort’ and the Implications for China's Current Account 美国作为“最后需求者”及其对中国经常账户的影响
Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review Pub Date : 2008-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2009.00450.x
J. Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak
{"title":"The USA as the ‘Demander of Last Resort’ and the Implications for China's Current Account","authors":"J. Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0106.2009.00450.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2009.00450.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper evaluates the degree to which current account patterns are explained by the variables suggested by the literature, and reflects on possible future patterns. We start with panel regressions explaining the current account of 69 countries during 1981-2006. We identify an asymmetric effect of the US as the “demander of last resort:” a 1% increase in the lagged US imports/GDP is associated with 0.3% increase of current account surpluses of countries running surpluses, but with insignificant changes of current account deficits of countries running deficits. Overall, the panel regressions account for not more than 4/5 of the variation. We apply the regression results to assess China’s current account over the next six years, projecting a large drop in its account/GDP surpluses.","PeriodicalId":134313,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review","volume":"169 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115777330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
Input Quality, Relational Contracts and International Outsourcing 输入质量，关系合同和国际外包
Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review Pub Date : 2008-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2008.00409.x
Eric W. Bond
{"title":"Input Quality, Relational Contracts and International Outsourcing","authors":"Eric W. Bond","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0106.2008.00409.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2008.00409.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a Ricardian trade model in which the quality of intermediate inputs affects the productivity of labour at the final production stage. The role of contracting frictions is shown by comparing the chain of comparative advantage obtained with full information with that resulting when the quality of inputs is affected by actions that are not verifiable in court. Conditions are derived under which parties can use the potential for repeat business (relational contracts) to sustain efficient production choices. These results yield predictions for how country and industry characteristics will affect the level of contracting frictions. Copyright 2008 The Author. Journal compilation 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd","PeriodicalId":134313,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125492775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Property Market and the Macroeconomy of Mainland China: A Cross Region Study 房地产市场与中国大陆宏观经济:一个跨区域的研究
Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review Pub Date : 2008-04-23 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2008.00399.x
Wensheng Peng, Dickson C. Tam, M. Yiu
{"title":"Property Market and the Macroeconomy of Mainland China: A Cross Region Study","authors":"Wensheng Peng, Dickson C. Tam, M. Yiu","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0106.2008.00399.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2008.00399.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the nexus between the property market and macroeconomy of China in 1998-2004, using panel data models covering 31 provinces and major cities. The estimates suggest three main conclusions. First, there seemed to be a two-way linkage between property prices and GDP growth. Second, bank credit expansion did not seem to play an 'accelerating' role in property price inflation, although the latter is found to have contributed to bank credit increases in recent years. Third, property price growth may have deviated from fundamentals in coastal areas, as evidenced by a negative relationship between housing and rental prices. Copyright 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd","PeriodicalId":134313,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128918739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 38
Gradual Trade Liberalization with Sluggish Capital Movement 贸易逐步自由化与资本流动乏力
Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review Pub Date : 2008-01-11 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00363.x
Hansung Kim, Kar-yiu Wong
{"title":"Gradual Trade Liberalization with Sluggish Capital Movement","authors":"Hansung Kim, Kar-yiu Wong","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00363.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00363.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes how domestic sluggish capital movement can affect multilateral trade negotiations between countries. In multilateral trade talks, including the current Doha Round of trade talks organized by the World Trade Organization, countries take steps to liberalize even though they seem to be moving towards the ultimate free trade equilibrium. This paper argues that when capital moves sluggishly between sectors in an economy, there are cases in which countries do not want to move to the ultimate free trade equilibrium immediately. Instead, they find it more beneficial if they simultaneously move gradually, with their tariffs lowered step by step.","PeriodicalId":134313,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125217226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Firm Compliance With Social Insurance Obligations Where There is a Weak Surveillance and Enforcement Mechanism: Empirical Evidence from Shanghai 监督与执行机制薄弱的企业履行社会保险义务:来自上海的经验证据
Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review Pub Date : 2007-11-05 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00373.x
Pushkar Maitra, R. Smyth, I. Nielsen, C. Nyland, C. Zhu
{"title":"Firm Compliance With Social Insurance Obligations Where There is a Weak Surveillance and Enforcement Mechanism: Empirical Evidence from Shanghai","authors":"Pushkar Maitra, R. Smyth, I. Nielsen, C. Nyland, C. Zhu","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00373.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00373.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper draws on a unique data set collected in audits in 2001 and 2002 by the Bureau of Labour and Social Security in Shanghai to examine why firms in Shanghai comply or over-comply with social insurance obligations in a regulatory environment where the expected punishment for non-compliance is low. Drawing on Harrington (1988), we test two hypotheses. The first hypothesis is that based on the first audit, the BOLSS will segment firms into low (non-aggressive) and high (aggressive) categories and those in the high category will be more likely to be re-audited. The second hypothesis is that if the identified non-complier is re-audited, it will be more likely to comply with its social insurance obligations in order to be returned from the high (aggressive) category into the low (non aggressive) category. Our first main finding is that firms found to be in non-compliance in the first audit in 2001 were moved into a separate violation category and the probability of being reaudited in 2002 was significantly higher if the firm was in that category. Our second main result is that across the board, firms which were reaudited continued to underpay in 2002 but the extent of underpayment was significantly reduced.","PeriodicalId":134313,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115799529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 29
On the Sustainability of Government Borrowing in a Dynamic General Equilibrium 动态一般均衡下政府借贷的可持续性研究
Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review Pub Date : 2007-11-05 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00372.x
Atsumasa Kondo
{"title":"On the Sustainability of Government Borrowing in a Dynamic General Equilibrium","authors":"Atsumasa Kondo","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00372.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00372.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper constructs a dynamic general equilibrium model with money in consumers' utility functions and investigates the equilibrium dynamics of government's debt. The limitation level of the government borrowing for which a dynamic equilibrium and the no Ponzi Game condition are compatible with each other is explicitly derived. The critical level depends on the long-run interest rate, primary balance, money supply etc. Copyright 2007 The Author Journal compilation 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd","PeriodicalId":134313,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134163564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Testing Convergence of Fijis Tourism Markets 斐济旅游市场趋同的检验
Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review Pub Date : 2007-11-05 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00377.x
P. Narayan
{"title":"Testing Convergence of Fijis Tourism Markets","authors":"P. Narayan","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00377.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00377.x","url":null,"abstract":"The convergence hypothesis for tourism markets is based on the tenet that when tourism markets are converging the difference between total international visitor arrivals to a country and international visitor arrivals from a particular country will be stationary. We argue that if this is true, then convergence can also be tested through examining whether total visitor arrivals and visitor arrivals from a particular market are co-integrated. We test the convergence hypothesis by examining visitor arrivals to Fiji from eight tourist source markets, using both unit root and co-integration tests. We find strong statistical evidence that Fijis tourism markets converge.","PeriodicalId":134313,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129467159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 31
Growth of Intermediate Goods Trade in East Asia 东亚地区中间产品贸易的增长
Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review Pub Date : 2007-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00367.x
Kazunobu Hayakawa
{"title":"Growth of Intermediate Goods Trade in East Asia","authors":"Kazunobu Hayakawa","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00367.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00367.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines what contributes to the trade growth of intermediate machinery goods in East Asia in the 1990s. To this end, this paper regresses the input allocation equation to obtain the estimator of border barriers in each country, and then, by using the estimators, the first difference logarithmic form of the gravity equation is regressed. Our empirical results suggest that reduction in border barriers and the production and expenditure growth of intermediate goods are important factors which contribute to the rapid growth of trade in machinery parts in East Asia.","PeriodicalId":134313,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review","volume":"98 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124986940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15
Concepts of Fairness in the Global Trading System 全球贸易体系中的公平概念
Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review Pub Date : 2007-08-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00359.x
Andrew G. Brown, R. Stern
{"title":"Concepts of Fairness in the Global Trading System","authors":"Andrew G. Brown, R. Stern","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00359.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2007.00359.x","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we first discuss why fairness is a condition of the agreements among governments that form the global trading system. We then suggest that fairness can best be considered within the framework of two concepts: equality of opportunity and distributive equity. We observe that the efficiency criterion is not a primary yardstick of fairness, and though it is relevant in choosing among alternative ways of realizing fairness, it is not without its own limitations. We thereafter discuss what equality of opportunity and distributive equity mean when applied to the commitments that governments make in the global trading system. For this purpose, we divide these commitments into four categories: those relating directly to market access; those concerning supporting rules designed to prevent cheating in market access commitments or to facilitate trade flows; those relating to procedures for the settlement of disputes or the use of trade remedy measures; and those relating to governance of the system. (We say nothing in this paper about the issue of fairness in the context of the last category.) Finally, we make some comments about fairness in the Doha Development Round, first reviewing some proposals made by Stiglitz and Charlton, and then making some observations about the central issue of market access.","PeriodicalId":134313,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: Pacific Economic Review","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133764685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 27
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