Property Market and the Macroeconomy of Mainland China: A Cross Region Study

Abstract

This paper studies the nexus between the property market and macroeconomy of China in 1998-2004, using panel data models covering 31 provinces and major cities. The estimates suggest three main conclusions. First, there seemed to be a two-way linkage between property prices and GDP growth. Second, bank credit expansion did not seem to play an 'accelerating' role in property price inflation, although the latter is found to have contributed to bank credit increases in recent years. Third, property price growth may have deviated from fundamentals in coastal areas, as evidenced by a negative relationship between housing and rental prices. Copyright 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd