{"title":"Non-state Armed Groups and UAVs: Uptake and Effectiveness","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/23740973.2020.1761610","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23740973.2020.1761610","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":126865,"journal":{"name":"Armed Conflict Survey","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126523471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"2 Asia-Pacific","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/23740973.2020.1761615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23740973.2020.1761615","url":null,"abstract":"Key trends In Myanmar, violence intensified and peace negotiations made no progress. Similarly, the conflict between the Philippines and the New People’s Army (NPA) escalated and talks at government level ended permanently. Incidents in Southern Thailand remained low level, but the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) proved able to strike outside its main operational area, including in Bangkok. Strategic implications The Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the Philippines remained the most active extremist group in the region, but the risk of ISIS resurgence in Southeast Asia calls for the strengthening of naval and intelligence cooperation among neighbouring states. ISIS struggled to infiltrate the ethno-nationalist conflict in Southern Thailand, but anti-Muslim attitudes might encourage recruitment. Prospects As Western countries struggle to engage with Myanmar, China’s influence on its politics is likely to increase. The resumption of peace talks with the NPA is unlikely. Worsening ethnic and religious animosity in Thailand does not bode well for a long-term solution to the conflict.","PeriodicalId":126865,"journal":{"name":"Armed Conflict Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129180391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"5 South Asia","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/23740973.2020.1761623","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23740973.2020.1761623","url":null,"abstract":"Key trends The Indian government had some success in reducing violence and partly regaining people’s trust vis-à-vis conflicts in the Northeast and with the CPI–Maoist group. In Pakistan, violence by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) declined; 2019 was the first year since 2003 without Pakistani or US airstrikes. Violence intensified in several theatres, including Afghanistan, where the Taliban increased its territorial control, and in Kashmir. The latter conflict sparked an arms race between India and Pakistan. Multiple long-running protests and incidents of civil disobedience in the region were repressed violently by security forces. ISIS is active across the region and announced three South Asian provinces. Strategic implications The conflict in Kashmir was discussed at the UN Security Council as it generated international concerns and became increasingly internationalised. Baloch insurgent attacks against Chinese interests in Pakistan put significant pressure on Islamabad and continued to frustrate Beijing (although it remains a key ally of Pakistan in the international arena). In Northeast India, counter-insurgency coordination between India and Myanmar was a significant military and diplomatic development. Prospects Stalemate or collapse of peace talks is a strong possibility in both Afghanistan and all the Indian conflicts. In the Kashmir conflict a rapprochement between India and Pakistan is not on the horizon and the situation might worsen along the Line of Control. India’s economic clout means it is unlikely to come under greater international pressure.","PeriodicalId":126865,"journal":{"name":"Armed Conflict Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129855704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Armed-Group Proliferation: Origins and Consequences","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/23740973.2020.1761609","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23740973.2020.1761609","url":null,"abstract":"last eight years than in the previous eight decades.1 During this period the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, has attracted inordinate global concern, diverting attention from a trend that will define conflict in the coming decade: the proliferation of armed groups. These groups are built around highly adaptive alliances of smaller-scale units with diffuse leadership and authority. They act more like disruptive start-ups than standard corporations. By contrast, ISIS was organised like the centralised Marxist insurgencies of the late twentieth century, such as FARC in Colombia, Maoist groups in Nepal and India and the New People’s Army in the Philippines. The territorial defeat of ISIS, which functioned as a quasi-state, illustrates a shortcoming of its more formal organisational model. By contrast, armed insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq persist despite years of direct combat with US forces. Similarly in the Sahel, French forces aligned with Malian, Chadian and other local militaries continue to combat what often appears to be a nebulous constellation of jihadi forces. The loss of its caliphate may prompt ISIS to abandon its vertical structure in favour of a more horizontal one. Decentralised authority can be an advantage during times of insurgency and active combat – yet it can become a liability in peace negotiations, when the multiplicity of groups can impede dialogue and progress, or in peacetime, when groups’ common cause may give way to competition for dominance or hinder state reassertion. Shifting alliances of armed groups require peacemakers to develop new methods of engaging and including local commanders in peace talks.","PeriodicalId":126865,"journal":{"name":"Armed Conflict Survey","volume":"67 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117303376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"1 Americas","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/23740973.2020.1761614","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23740973.2020.1761614","url":null,"abstract":"Key trends Conflicts in the region continued to be predominantly criminal in nature and remained very violent, even escalating in some instances. A militarised approach prevailed, often leading to unintended consequences as a result of heavy-handedness and allegations of humanrights violations. Criminal gangs in Central America, particularly the MS-13, further consolidated their political power and engagement with local communities. Urban conflict is on the rise in Brazil, and Ceará State is now included in this survey as a result. Strategic implications Central American governments’ inability to reduce conflict and related illegal migration to the US undermined relationships with neighbouring countries and the US, a key partner against violent gangs. The economic impact of conflict was substantial, particularly as the prevalence of criminal economies and outbound migration contributed to economic depression in countries such as El Salvador. Prospects The peace agreement between Colombia and FARC is unlikely to collapse despite the actions of FARC dissidents. Elsewhere in the region, the likelihood of fruitful negotiations with armed groups remained slim.","PeriodicalId":126865,"journal":{"name":"Armed Conflict Survey","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124617467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"3 Europe and Eurasia","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/23740973.2020.1761616","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23740973.2020.1761616","url":null,"abstract":"Key trends Notwithstanding continued tensions and fighting, hostilities eased and violence declined in both conflicts compared to the previous year. Strategic implications The conflict is highly detrimental to the economies of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The war in Donbas had a catastrophic impact on Ukraine’s economy, compromising the ability of many Ukrainians to survive. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict continued to have a significant humanitarian impact on civilians. Prospects The likelihood of political dialogues towards peace remains moderate despite some positive steps in 2019 in both conflicts. In Nagorno-Karabakh the short- to medium-term risk of major violence is moderate. The conflicts receive limited international attention but foreign influence continues to have an impact. Conflict parties will need to factor in, among others, Russia–US and Russia–Turkey relations in their calculations.","PeriodicalId":126865,"journal":{"name":"Armed Conflict Survey","volume":"66 7","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120892985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"4 Middle East and North Africa","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/23740973.2020.1761620","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23740973.2020.1761620","url":null,"abstract":"Key trends Conflicts in the Middle East remain highly regionalised and internationalised; rivalries among external powers play out across the region. The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) liberated the last ISIS-held territory in Syria. ISIS adapted by resorting to insurgency tactics, in both Syria and Iraq. Iraq’s post-ISIS stabilisation is tentative. By 2019, a large protest movement upended Iraqi politics, while US–Iran tensions also played out in the Iraqi arena. In Libya, a new, more brutal phase of civil war began, with more direct involvement of regional rivals. Egypt contended with regular attacks in the Sinai Peninsula although the insurgency began to lose its strength. Israeli dominance and unilateralism shaped the trajectory of the Israel–Palestine conflict. Strategic implications Syria is likely to remain an exporter of instability in the foreseeable future and to continue drawing external interference. Turkey’s intervention in Syria isolated the country from its regional interlocutors and NATO allies. Russia attempted to fill the diplomatic vacuum created by the sudden withdrawal of US forces from northern Syria. The influence of pro-Iranian militias, the weakness of the central government and US–Iran tensions put the stability of Iraq at risk. Many global powers see the conflict in Libya as an opportunity to expand their strategic influence in the Mediterranean. The Saudi-led coalition came under greater scrutiny in 2019, from the US and UK in particular. President Trump’s pro-Israeli policies alienated Palestinians and undermined the United States’ role as negotiator. Prospects While a comprehensive and inclusive political settlement in Syria remains elusive, a new insurgency is brewing in southern Syria. The resurgence of ISIS is already under way. A lull in hostilities in northern Syria is possible, but prospects for peace are non-existent in the short term. Turkish forces in Syrian areas are creating tensions with local communities and fuel low-intensity conflict. A return to large-scale territorial control by ISIS is unlikely, but without adequate counter-insurgency efforts, Iraq will struggle to eliminate remaining militants. The Saudi-led coalition’s declining appetite for war in Yemen suggests a potential peace settlement more expansive than the Stockholm Agreement envisaged. Increased fragmentation in Libya raises concerns over a possible partition. Proxy wars are unlikely to end soon.","PeriodicalId":126865,"journal":{"name":"Armed Conflict Survey","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115016739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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