4 Middle East and North Africa

Key trends Conflicts in the Middle East remain highly regionalised and internationalised; rivalries among external powers play out across the region. The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) liberated the last ISIS-held territory in Syria. ISIS adapted by resorting to insurgency tactics, in both Syria and Iraq. Iraq’s post-ISIS stabilisation is tentative. By 2019, a large protest movement upended Iraqi politics, while US–Iran tensions also played out in the Iraqi arena. In Libya, a new, more brutal phase of civil war began, with more direct involvement of regional rivals. Egypt contended with regular attacks in the Sinai Peninsula although the insurgency began to lose its strength. Israeli dominance and unilateralism shaped the trajectory of the Israel–Palestine conflict. Strategic implications Syria is likely to remain an exporter of instability in the foreseeable future and to continue drawing external interference. Turkey’s intervention in Syria isolated the country from its regional interlocutors and NATO allies. Russia attempted to fill the diplomatic vacuum created by the sudden withdrawal of US forces from northern Syria. The influence of pro-Iranian militias, the weakness of the central government and US–Iran tensions put the stability of Iraq at risk. Many global powers see the conflict in Libya as an opportunity to expand their strategic influence in the Mediterranean. The Saudi-led coalition came under greater scrutiny in 2019, from the US and UK in particular. President Trump’s pro-Israeli policies alienated Palestinians and undermined the United States’ role as negotiator. Prospects While a comprehensive and inclusive political settlement in Syria remains elusive, a new insurgency is brewing in southern Syria. The resurgence of ISIS is already under way. A lull in hostilities in northern Syria is possible, but prospects for peace are non-existent in the short term. Turkish forces in Syrian areas are creating tensions with local communities and fuel low-intensity conflict. A return to large-scale territorial control by ISIS is unlikely, but without adequate counter-insurgency efforts, Iraq will struggle to eliminate remaining militants. The Saudi-led coalition’s declining appetite for war in Yemen suggests a potential peace settlement more expansive than the Stockholm Agreement envisaged. Increased fragmentation in Libya raises concerns over a possible partition. Proxy wars are unlikely to end soon.