3 Europe and Eurasia

Abstract

Key trends Notwithstanding continued tensions and fighting, hostilities eased and violence declined in both conflicts compared to the previous year. Strategic implications The conflict is highly detrimental to the economies of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The war in Donbas had a catastrophic impact on Ukraine’s economy, compromising the ability of many Ukrainians to survive. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict continued to have a significant humanitarian impact on civilians. Prospects The likelihood of political dialogues towards peace remains moderate despite some positive steps in 2019 in both conflicts. In Nagorno-Karabakh the short- to medium-term risk of major violence is moderate. The conflicts receive limited international attention but foreign influence continues to have an impact. Conflict parties will need to factor in, among others, Russia–US and Russia–Turkey relations in their calculations.