2 Asia-Pacific

Abstract

Key trends In Myanmar, violence intensified and peace negotiations made no progress. Similarly, the conflict between the Philippines and the New People’s Army (NPA) escalated and talks at government level ended permanently. Incidents in Southern Thailand remained low level, but the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) proved able to strike outside its main operational area, including in Bangkok. Strategic implications The Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the Philippines remained the most active extremist group in the region, but the risk of ISIS resurgence in Southeast Asia calls for the strengthening of naval and intelligence cooperation among neighbouring states. ISIS struggled to infiltrate the ethno-nationalist conflict in Southern Thailand, but anti-Muslim attitudes might encourage recruitment. Prospects As Western countries struggle to engage with Myanmar, China’s influence on its politics is likely to increase. The resumption of peace talks with the NPA is unlikely. Worsening ethnic and religious animosity in Thailand does not bode well for a long-term solution to the conflict.