1 Americas

Abstract

Key trends Conflicts in the region continued to be predominantly criminal in nature and remained very violent, even escalating in some instances. A militarised approach prevailed, often leading to unintended consequences as a result of heavy-handedness and allegations of humanrights violations. Criminal gangs in Central America, particularly the MS-13, further consolidated their political power and engagement with local communities. Urban conflict is on the rise in Brazil, and Ceará State is now included in this survey as a result. Strategic implications Central American governments’ inability to reduce conflict and related illegal migration to the US undermined relationships with neighbouring countries and the US, a key partner against violent gangs. The economic impact of conflict was substantial, particularly as the prevalence of criminal economies and outbound migration contributed to economic depression in countries such as El Salvador. Prospects The peace agreement between Colombia and FARC is unlikely to collapse despite the actions of FARC dissidents. Elsewhere in the region, the likelihood of fruitful negotiations with armed groups remained slim.