Armed Conflict Survey最新文献_第5页

Notes on Methodology 方法说明

Armed Conflict Survey Pub Date : 2019-12-31 DOI: 10.1525/9780520930773-015

P. McDonough, E. Bianchi

引用次数: 0

Armed Conflict Survey Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23740973.2019.1603968

{"title":"Conflict Expansion to Cities","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/23740973.2019.1603968","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23740973.2019.1603968","url":null,"abstract":"become a source of vulnerability and a key driver in the perpetration of armed conflict. Regions already struggling with poverty, weak political institutions and conflict have been further destabilised by the growing demands and social complexity stemming from sprawling urban areas. Far from being solely a local issue, unmanaged urban growth has been recognised as a key global challenge within the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. The pressures unleashed by this process are heaviest upon poor countries. They are, however, potentially devastating in areas facing armed conflict. In sub-Saharan Africa, which hosts half of the UN’s peacekeeping operations, the urban population will grow by 132% between 2019 and 2043, when it is forecast to surpass the 1 billion mark. Afghanistan’s urban population is forecast to almost triple from 9 to 25 million in 30 years.1 The International Committee of the Red Cross estimated in 2016 that 50m people worldwide were affected by urban armed conflict.2 But the roles of cities in armed conflicts go beyond that of sites for urban warfare. Cities often receive significant numbers of people displaced by conflicts, and local authorities frequently lack the necessary infrastructure and institutions to properly manage sudden and large inflows.3 Cities have also come to play a key role in armed conflict, supporting non-state armed groups in achieving political and economic goals beyond battle field victories. In Iraq, the successful occupation of the country by US-led forces in 2003 was followed by a civil war starting ‘as a primarily urban guerrilla struggle’.4 Mogadishu remains a hotspot in the armed conflict between clan-based militias, al-Shabaab and international forces – seven years after the radical Islamist group was driven out of the Somali capital by African Union troops.5 As the case studies below show, Colombia’s Medellín and Pakistan’s Karachi hosted armed groups and sustained war economies despite not seeing the bulk of combat. Some urban centres in fragile or conflict-affected countries have become sites of ‘conflict expansion’ – convergence points for illicit economies, nonstate armed groups and displaced populations. In other words, cities become tightly integrated into the broader dynamics of an armed conflict by sustaining, magnifying and transforming its dynamics, and sometimes leading to new conflict. The three main conflict-expansion mechanisms – population displacement, illicit economies and non-state group activities – can combine in different ways to transform or prolong a conflict. Rapid urban population growth facilitates this process, for instance, by exacerbating pre-existing sectarian divides, creating political and economic strain and providing opportunities for criminals and rebels to establish territorial presence and erode state control. Cities also provide opportunities for armed groups from outside the urban area to secure finance by working with criminal organisatio","PeriodicalId":126865,"journal":{"name":"Armed Conflict Survey","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126181626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Notes on Methodology 方法说明

Armed Conflict Survey Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23740973.2019.1603965

William C. Duane, R. Adler, L. Bennion, R. Ginsberg

引用次数: 0

2 Asia-Pacific 2亚太

Armed Conflict Survey Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23740973.2019.1603975

{"title":"2 Asia-Pacific","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/23740973.2019.1603975","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23740973.2019.1603975","url":null,"abstract":"The armed conflicts in the Asia–Pacific region are discrete theatres with no significant connections, and remained so throughout 2018. Accordingly, Myanmar, the Philippines and southern Thailand all addressed their respective internal-security situations with tailored military and political approaches, without relying on any dedicated regional instruments or security-cooperation mechanisms. The three conflicts also have vastly different levels of projections and varying potentials to affect broader geostrategic dynamics. Myanmar and the stabilisation of its conflicts are crucial to China’s geostrategic interests, as they occur in the territories of major Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, where two of its economic corridors pass. The Philippines’ internal conflicts have important implications for national security and politics as the insurgents advance redistributive and self-determination claims. Aside from sporadic engagements across the Celebes and Sulu seas and still-limited links to international jihad, the Moro and the Maoist conflicts in the archipelago have no larger implications for the region, however. Similarly, the armed insurgency in southern Thailand has virtually no influence outside the provinces in which Asia-Pacific","PeriodicalId":126865,"journal":{"name":"Armed Conflict Survey","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130883134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Armed Conflict and Forced Displacement 武装冲突和被迫流离失所

Armed Conflict Survey Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23740973.2019.1603969

{"title":"Armed Conflict and Forced Displacement","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/23740973.2019.1603969","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23740973.2019.1603969","url":null,"abstract":"Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the number of people both within countries and across borders who have been forcibly displaced due to persecution, armed conflict or violence has grown by more than 50% in the past ten years. In 2007, there were 42.7 million forcibly displaced people, but this number had risen to 68.5m by the end of 2017 – more than the population of France. Both refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) populations are now at record levels for the post-Second World War period. One out of approximately 110 people on the planet is forcibly displaced as a result of conflict or persecution, with 31 people displaced every minute. Notably, while much international coverage focuses on refugees, the refugee population has been rapidly outpaced by the growth in IDP populations (see Figure 1). Indeed, twothirds of all displaced persons remain in their home country.1 The majority of displaced individuals flee their homes due to the belief that the risks associated with remaining are too great. They move to escape the atrocities of violence and find safe haven, to be able to establish a livelihood and gain access to economic opportunities, and to join their kin elsewhere. All too often, however, displacement is strategically motivated and not simply a by-product of violence. Armed combatants in conflicts in Colombia, Sri Lanka, Uganda, Syria and many other countries have purposefully employed violence with a view towards clearing specific populations from a territory.3 By available estimates, this strategic use of violence to displace has been employed in between one-third and half of civil wars in the post-1945 period. While rebels have also often engaged in these activities, governments likely account for 85% of strategic uses.4 Whether a by-product of violence or driven by strategic motivations, displacement has significant and lasting economic, political and security implications for the displaced individuals, as well as for the communities that subsequently host them. The majority of refugees are hosted by developing countries, which have themselves often been affected by conflict and therefore struggle to carry the additional economic burden associated with rapid and large refugee influxes. The arrival of displaced populations often has the effect of challenging established bargains between governments and opposition actors along social, religious and political lines. It is also the case that the movement of displaced populations out of conflict zones can provide cover for militants and their arms to enter new territories and cross international boundaries, placing host communities at risk of conflict diffusion. As a result these risks, refugees are often the target of violence in host states.5","PeriodicalId":126865,"journal":{"name":"Armed Conflict Survey","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129209932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

4 Middle East and North Africa 中东和北非

Armed Conflict Survey Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23740973.2019.1603977

引用次数: 0

3 Europe and Eurasia 3欧洲和欧亚大陆

Armed Conflict Survey Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23740973.2019.1603976

引用次数: 0

Editor’s Introduction 编辑器的介绍

Armed Conflict Survey Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23740973.2019.1603964

C. Eisele

{"title":"Editor’s Introduction","authors":"C. Eisele","doi":"10.1080/23740973.2019.1603964","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23740973.2019.1603964","url":null,"abstract":"Political, military and humanitarian trends rarely stop at the calendar mark. The logic of armed violence unfolds according to the incentives and the constraints of the actors organising it. Conflict drivers are deeply interwoven in a country’s political and socio-economic challenges, often rooted in historical pitfalls. An in-depth analysis of the conflicts active in the past year, however, allows us to reflect on what we learned from recent events and hone our understanding of the drivers and dynamics shaping today’s wars. The 33 conflict reports in The Armed Conflict Survey 2019 aim to do exactly that – to explain why armed conflicts occur, what drives and what sustains them. The introductions at the beginning of the regional sections identify what features set each conflict apart, and what dynamics recur across different theatres. The four essays opening the book delve into those key trends, tracing how they unfold and drive conflict developments in the short to long term. Our annual review is thus necessarily a balancing exercise between understanding the continuity of conflict drivers and dynamics, and spotting the new trajectories that they are likely to both generate and follow. This combination offers the reader the analytical tools necessary to see through the complexity of modern armed conflicts and the insights needed to draw informed conclusions from them.","PeriodicalId":126865,"journal":{"name":"Armed Conflict Survey","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116742460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Security Implications of Climate Change 气候变化对安全的影响

Armed Conflict Survey Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23740973.2019.1603970

R. Matthew

引用次数: 17

6 Sub-Saharan Africa 撒哈拉以南非洲

Armed Conflict Survey Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/23740973.2019.1603979

{"title":"6 Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/23740973.2019.1603979","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23740973.2019.1603979","url":null,"abstract":"In sub-Saharan Africa, crime, jihadism, insurgency and communal violence are all facets of the current active conflicts. Transnational trends converge and overlap with grassroots dynamics – linking local violence across different areas; protracting, exacerbating and entrenching pre-existing disputes and causing spillovers across borders and regions. Political exclusion, institutional and governance weakness, poverty, and a lack of access to resources, job opportunities and land all combine to fuel resentment and sustain armed violence locally. Porous borders and limited state capacity facilitate the movement of armed groups and weapons across large swaths of territory; allow international terrorist and criminal networks – such as the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, and al-Qaeda – to exploit sub-national grievances and communal disputes; and shield roving bandits from the reach of national and international security forces. Country-specific factors drive armed violence in Cameroon, Central African Republic (CAR), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Lake Chad Basin, Mali, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan, while at the same time initiating, prolonging or exacerbating conflicts in neighbouring countries. Sub-Saharan Africa","PeriodicalId":126865,"journal":{"name":"Armed Conflict Survey","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131309704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1