2 Asia-Pacific

Abstract

The armed conflicts in the Asia–Pacific region are discrete theatres with no significant connections, and remained so throughout 2018. Accordingly, Myanmar, the Philippines and southern Thailand all addressed their respective internal-security situations with tailored military and political approaches, without relying on any dedicated regional instruments or security-cooperation mechanisms. The three conflicts also have vastly different levels of projections and varying potentials to affect broader geostrategic dynamics. Myanmar and the stabilisation of its conflicts are crucial to China’s geostrategic interests, as they occur in the territories of major Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, where two of its economic corridors pass. The Philippines’ internal conflicts have important implications for national security and politics as the insurgents advance redistributive and self-determination claims. Aside from sporadic engagements across the Celebes and Sulu seas and still-limited links to international jihad, the Moro and the Maoist conflicts in the archipelago have no larger implications for the region, however. Similarly, the armed insurgency in southern Thailand has virtually no influence outside the provinces in which Asia-Pacific