Armed Conflict and Forced Displacement

Abstract

Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the number of people both within countries and across borders who have been forcibly displaced due to persecution, armed conflict or violence has grown by more than 50% in the past ten years. In 2007, there were 42.7 million forcibly displaced people, but this number had risen to 68.5m by the end of 2017 – more than the population of France. Both refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) populations are now at record levels for the post-Second World War period. One out of approximately 110 people on the planet is forcibly displaced as a result of conflict or persecution, with 31 people displaced every minute. Notably, while much international coverage focuses on refugees, the refugee population has been rapidly outpaced by the growth in IDP populations (see Figure 1). Indeed, twothirds of all displaced persons remain in their home country.1 The majority of displaced individuals flee their homes due to the belief that the risks associated with remaining are too great. They move to escape the atrocities of violence and find safe haven, to be able to establish a livelihood and gain access to economic opportunities, and to join their kin elsewhere. All too often, however, displacement is strategically motivated and not simply a by-product of violence. Armed combatants in conflicts in Colombia, Sri Lanka, Uganda, Syria and many other countries have purposefully employed violence with a view towards clearing specific populations from a territory.3 By available estimates, this strategic use of violence to displace has been employed in between one-third and half of civil wars in the post-1945 period. While rebels have also often engaged in these activities, governments likely account for 85% of strategic uses.4 Whether a by-product of violence or driven by strategic motivations, displacement has significant and lasting economic, political and security implications for the displaced individuals, as well as for the communities that subsequently host them. The majority of refugees are hosted by developing countries, which have themselves often been affected by conflict and therefore struggle to carry the additional economic burden associated with rapid and large refugee influxes. The arrival of displaced populations often has the effect of challenging established bargains between governments and opposition actors along social, religious and political lines. It is also the case that the movement of displaced populations out of conflict zones can provide cover for militants and their arms to enter new territories and cross international boundaries, placing host communities at risk of conflict diffusion. As a result these risks, refugees are often the target of violence in host states.5