Armed Conflict and Forced Displacement

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Abstract

Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the number of people both within countries and across borders who have been forcibly displaced due to persecution, armed conflict or violence has grown by more than 50% in the past ten years. In 2007, there were 42.7 million forcibly displaced people, but this number had risen to 68.5m by the end of 2017 – more than the population of France. Both refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) populations are now at record levels for the post-Second World War period. One out of approximately 110 people on the planet is forcibly displaced as a result of conflict or persecution, with 31 people displaced every minute. Notably, while much international coverage focuses on refugees, the refugee population has been rapidly outpaced by the growth in IDP populations (see Figure 1). Indeed, twothirds of all displaced persons remain in their home country.1 The majority of displaced individuals flee their homes due to the belief that the risks associated with remaining are too great. They move to escape the atrocities of violence and find safe haven, to be able to establish a livelihood and gain access to economic opportunities, and to join their kin elsewhere. All too often, however, displacement is strategically motivated and not simply a by-product of violence. Armed combatants in conflicts in Colombia, Sri Lanka, Uganda, Syria and many other countries have purposefully employed violence with a view towards clearing specific populations from a territory.3 By available estimates, this strategic use of violence to displace has been employed in between one-third and half of civil wars in the post-1945 period. While rebels have also often engaged in these activities, governments likely account for 85% of strategic uses.4 Whether a by-product of violence or driven by strategic motivations, displacement has significant and lasting economic, political and security implications for the displaced individuals, as well as for the communities that subsequently host them. The majority of refugees are hosted by developing countries, which have themselves often been affected by conflict and therefore struggle to carry the additional economic burden associated with rapid and large refugee influxes. The arrival of displaced populations often has the effect of challenging established bargains between governments and opposition actors along social, religious and political lines. It is also the case that the movement of displaced populations out of conflict zones can provide cover for militants and their arms to enter new territories and cross international boundaries, placing host communities at risk of conflict diffusion. As a result these risks, refugees are often the target of violence in host states.5
武装冲突和被迫流离失所
在过去十年中,由于迫害、武装冲突或暴力而在国内和跨境被迫流离失所的人数增长了50%以上。2007年,有4270万被迫流离失所者,但到2017年底,这一数字已上升至6850万,超过了法国的人口。难民和国内流离失所者人口现在都达到了第二次世界大战后的创纪录水平。地球上每110人中就有一人因冲突或迫害而被迫流离失所,每分钟就有31人流离失所。值得注意的是,虽然许多国际报道的重点是难民,但难民人口的增长速度已迅速超过国内流离失所者人口的增长速度(见图1)。事实上,所有流离失所者中有三分之二留在本国大多数流离失所者逃离家园,是因为他们认为留下来的风险太大。他们迁移是为了逃离暴力的暴行,寻找安全的避风港,能够建立生计,获得经济机会,并与其他地方的亲人团聚。然而,流离失所往往是出于战略动机,而不仅仅是暴力的副产品。在哥伦比亚、斯里兰卡、乌干达、叙利亚和许多其他国家的冲突中,武装战斗人员有目的地使用暴力,目的是将特定人口赶出领土根据现有的估计,在1945年以后的内战中,有三分之一到一半的内战都采用了这种战略性地使用暴力来流离失所。虽然叛乱分子也经常从事这些活动,但政府可能占战略用途的85%无论是暴力的副产品还是出于战略动机,流离失所对流离失所者以及随后收容他们的社区都具有重大而持久的经济、政治和安全影响。大多数难民由发展中国家收容,这些国家本身也经常受到冲突的影响,因此难以承担与迅速和大量难民涌入有关的额外经济负担。流离失所人口的到来往往会挑战政府与反对派在社会、宗教和政治方面达成的既定协议。还有一种情况是,流离失所人口离开冲突地区可能为武装分子及其武器进入新领土和跨越国际边界提供掩护,使收容社区面临冲突扩散的风险。由于这些风险,难民往往成为收容国暴力的目标
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