3 Europe and Eurasia

The armed conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh and eastern Ukraine are the only two currently active on the Eurasian continent. Russia has a prominent role in both theatres. In the Armenian–Azerbaijani dispute, its positions are virtually identical to the West’s, maintaining a rhetorical commitment to similar peacemaking and conflict-resolution agendas. In Ukraine, however, Russia’s goals are diametrically opposed to the West’s and actively destabilising. In both situations, Moscow is interested in retaining influence over former Soviet territories and presence in areas of geostrategic relevance in the power competition with the West. As a result, in Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia seeks to balance established military and economic cooperation in Armenia with arms deals and plans to expand trade ties in Azerbaijan. In Ukraine, Russia aims to limit a drift towards the West by supporting separatist sentiments and armed groups in the Donbas region and by asserting its control over the Kerch Strait (located off the Crimean peninsula it annexed in 2014). Stalemate continued in both conflicts in 2018, with no substantial changes to the parties’ military positions, and no movements in the lines dividing Europe and Eurasia