Forest Policy and Economics最新文献

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Factors influencing the shift from cocoa to rubber production in Wasa Amenfi Central District in the Western region of Ghana 影响加纳西部Wasa Amenfi中心区从可可生产转向橡胶生产的因素
IF 4 2区 农林科学
Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103568
Mary Badu , Margaret Aba Sam Hagan , Camillus Abawiera Wongnaa , Christopher Kudzinawo , Dadson Awunyo-Vitor
{"title":"Factors influencing the shift from cocoa to rubber production in Wasa Amenfi Central District in the Western region of Ghana","authors":"Mary Badu ,&nbsp;Margaret Aba Sam Hagan ,&nbsp;Camillus Abawiera Wongnaa ,&nbsp;Christopher Kudzinawo ,&nbsp;Dadson Awunyo-Vitor","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103568","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103568","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ghana's economy largely depends on proceeds from cocoa production and trade. However, one issue that has been hindering the cocoa sector in recent times is the case of cocoa farmers diverting to rubber production. Previous studies that worked on the issue of cocoa farm abandonment have concentrated on productivity challenges and poor price mechanisms without analysing the shift from cocoa production to the production of other crops as well as the factors influencing the shifts. This paper aims to examine the factors that influence the switch from cocoa to rubber production as well as the constraints in cocoa production using cross-sectional data from 360 cocoa farmers in Ghana. The logistic regression model and Kendall's Coefficient of Concordance were the methods of analysis. The results showed that farmers who switched from cocoa to rubber production were significantly motivated by attractive benefits in rubber production including high price for produce, ready market and the promise of perpetual farm income in their old age. Farmers' decisions to switch from cocoa to rubber production were influenced by the expected age of the rubber farm before harvest, the age of their cocoa farm, access to better seeds, financial facilities, and fertilizer usage. According to the farmers, the most severe constraint facing them is lack of policy issues, with a mean score of 9.48, while the least constraint is marketing constraints, with a mean score of 29.38. The research proposes that measures be put in place to make sure government policies are clearly communicated to the farmers, and that the government should set fair and justifiable prices for cocoa to sustain the incomes of farmers. Also, future studies should consider undertaking longitudinal researches to trace the variations in farmer behaviour and intensions overtime.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103568"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sustainable poverty alleviation? The impact and mechanisms of forestry training on the economic welfare of rural households over time in Southern China 可持续的扶贫?林业培训对南方农户经济福利的影响及机制
IF 4 2区 农林科学
Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103565
Xin Zhao, Rong Zhao
{"title":"Sustainable poverty alleviation? The impact and mechanisms of forestry training on the economic welfare of rural households over time in Southern China","authors":"Xin Zhao,&nbsp;Rong Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103565","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103565","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Investigating the transformation of farmers' forestry income and household economic vulnerability is crucial for enriching the forest-poverty dynamic relationship, especially in understanding the role of forest intervention policies in supporting sustainable poverty alleviation for nearly 250 million extremely poor farmers dependent on forest resources. This paper develops an economic model to examine the relationship between forestry training and the growth of forestry income, where such training may provide technical skills and information to support sustainable poverty alleviation. Using survey data from 305 rural households in designated assistance counties from the National Forestry and Grassland Administration (NFGA) of China in 2023, it analyzes the impact of forestry training on the forestry income and economic vulnerability of rural households who have moved out of poverty through the China's “Sustainable Poverty Alleviation Policy” (SPAP). The study also explores the policy heterogeneity among different groups and identifies potential transmission mechanisms. The findings indicate that forestry training significantly increases income and reduces poverty for these farmers. Heterogeneity tests reveal that the income-increasing effect is more pronounced among households with low to moderate forestry income, while the preventing returning to poverty effect follows an “inverted U-shaped” pattern. Additionally, forestry training is particularly beneficial for vulnerable farmers with small landholdings. Mechanism analysis suggests that the training encourages greater labor force participation in the forestry sector, thereby activating the forest land assets of rural poverty-alleviated households. Finally, the study offers policy recommendations to strengthen the long-term impact of forestry training on the livelihoods of the rural poor population.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103565"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ways to maintain and challenge hegemony: Actor coalitions in Finnish forest governance 维持和挑战霸权的方式:芬兰森林治理中的行动者联盟
IF 4 2区 农林科学
Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103572
Naveed Imran , Simo Sarkki , Anna Krzywoszynska , Hannu I. Heikkinen
{"title":"Ways to maintain and challenge hegemony: Actor coalitions in Finnish forest governance","authors":"Naveed Imran ,&nbsp;Simo Sarkki ,&nbsp;Anna Krzywoszynska ,&nbsp;Hannu I. Heikkinen","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103572","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103572","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding tensions between hegemony and counter-hegemony is crucial for identifying dynamics of socio-political persistence and change. This study examines Finnish forest governance and highlights its shift from a corporativist, monocentric model to a more decentralised, polycentric governance landscape illustrated by the diversification of actors in the domains of policy, civil society, science and business. We analyse two major Forest Act revisions (1994–96, 2010–13) and ongoing debates on the EU Nature Restoration Law to assess whether and how biodiversity concerns are incorporated into legislation and how these relate to the perspectives of the Forestry and Environmental coalitions. Our findings reveal that mainstreaming biodiversity into forest policy and practice has been hampered by cosmetic changes in policy (Forest Act 1996), by arranging multi-actor processes but without impact on policy priorities (Forest Act 2013), and by stressing the importance of economy and national sovereignty over biodiversity concerns (regarding EU Nature Restoration Law). We discuss ways for maintaining and challenging hegemony by Forestry and Environmental coalitions. Our major conclusion is that a shift towards polycentrism through diversification of the forest governance landscape does not necessarily imply changes in hegemony defined as a power to influence the rules of the game within the existing governance landscape. Yet, the ongoing process of preparing the national restoration plans and their actual implementation will show whether the Forestry coalition is able to sustain its hegemonic position in the context of EU Nature Restoration Law.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103572"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Combating new challenges with old political solutions? Policy responses to climate change and climate- induced disturbances in European forests 用旧的政治解决办法应对新的挑战?欧洲森林对气候变化和气候引起的干扰的政策反应
IF 4 2区 农林科学
Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103561
Annica Sandström , Karin Beland-Lindahl , Marcin Mielewczyk , Krzysztof Niedzialkowski , Jens Nilsson , Špela Pezdevšek Malovrh , Pascal Renaud-Bernath , Metodi Sotirov , Zala Uhan
{"title":"Combating new challenges with old political solutions? Policy responses to climate change and climate- induced disturbances in European forests","authors":"Annica Sandström ,&nbsp;Karin Beland-Lindahl ,&nbsp;Marcin Mielewczyk ,&nbsp;Krzysztof Niedzialkowski ,&nbsp;Jens Nilsson ,&nbsp;Špela Pezdevšek Malovrh ,&nbsp;Pascal Renaud-Bernath ,&nbsp;Metodi Sotirov ,&nbsp;Zala Uhan","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103561","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103561","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study focuses on the role of external events – in the form of climate change and climate-induced disturbance – for policy forest development. The aim is to explore the evolution of European forest policy through a longitudinal analysis of Germany, Poland, Slovenia, and Sweden, assessing how climate change and climate-induced disturbances are considered in policy goals, problem perceptions, governance approaches, and preferred management solutions. First, we map and analyze policy development within each country over a period of two decades. Second<em>,</em> we discuss how these findings relate to climate change and climate-induced disturbances. Third<em>,</em> and finally, we reflect on the similarities and differences of the four countries. The empirical results provide an overview of forest policy development and show how responsive the governance systems have been to the new challenges posed by a rapidly changing climate. While much stability has characterized European forest policy, revisions and substantial changes, partly motivated by increasing climate change and climate-induced disturbances, are evident in different ways and to varying degrees in the countries studied. The magnitude and consequences of these disruptive events, existing institutional structures, and present advocacy coalitions are suggested as explanations for variations among countries. The lessons about past responsiveness may predict the pace of implementation of new forest policies and adaptation to disturbances in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103561"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144518931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Actors' participation and power manifestations in tax regimes of small-scale tree growing 小规模林木种植税收制度中的行动者参与与权力表现
IF 4 2区 农林科学
Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103570
Ubaldus J. Tumaini , Irmeli Mustalahti , Aristarik H. Maro , Edda T. Lwoga
{"title":"Actors' participation and power manifestations in tax regimes of small-scale tree growing","authors":"Ubaldus J. Tumaini ,&nbsp;Irmeli Mustalahti ,&nbsp;Aristarik H. Maro ,&nbsp;Edda T. Lwoga","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103570","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103570","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Small-scale tree growing is a rapidly expanding yet overlooked subsector with distinct challenges. While most national forest policies target large-scale plantations, they fail to address the unique needs of small-scale tree growing sub-sector. This paper highlights research and policy gaps and examines inconsistencies in local tax decisions and timber trade regulations affecting this subsector, calling for targeted reforms. A pre-study and snowball sampling technique was used to choose a total of 28 informants who took part in two rounds of data collection in the Southern Highlands of Tanzania. The informants included actors who are village and urban-based tree growers, farm service providers, business persons, NGOs and government officials. These actors are not mutually exclusive; a village-based farmer may be a timber buyer or a government official may also be a tree farmer. Using qualitative content analysis, our empirical data shows how government agencies control the decision-making processes regarding taxes and levies. Small-scale non-state actors are consulted for input, but taxing authorities retain final decision-making power. This leads to distrust between small-scale tree growers and government tax agencies, discouraging future investment in the subsector. We conclude that there is inadequate participation of non-state actors, mostly tax papers, in the entire decision-making process, resulting in decisions that disregard their interests. Targeted forest policies that explicitly address the needs of small-scale tree growers should be developed. In addition, a thorough research is required to examine taxation practices from other countries where small-scale tree growing is national interest and integrated into national policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103570"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144514021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The abscence of labour in sustainable transitions: Migrant workers and the just transitions in the Swedish forestry sector 可持续转型中的劳动力缺失:瑞典林业部门的移徙工人和公正转型
IF 4 2区 农林科学
Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103569
Irma Olofsson
{"title":"The abscence of labour in sustainable transitions: Migrant workers and the just transitions in the Swedish forestry sector","authors":"Irma Olofsson","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103569","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103569","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The topic of sustainability is continually current and in Sweden, the bioeconomy and more specifically forestry, are pointed to as a central part of the sustainable transition. Swedish forestry is, to a large extent, done by seasonal labour migrants who are a group of workers that are often highly exploited. Decent work, equality and social aspects of sustainability are all part of the UN and EU's work on sustainability, and by continuation, Sweden's as well. By using the concepts of ‘just-transition’ and decent work, with interview data and policy analysis, this article examines workers', and especially migrant workers' place in the sustainable transition efforts in Sweden. The article finds that migrant workers in forestry have a difficult time exercising the rights they are entitled to, but also that they are practically invisible when it comes to how forestry in Sweden is portrayed, especially in a sustainability context.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103569"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144518930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Deforestation and human development in the Brazilian tropical dry forest 巴西热带干燥森林的森林砍伐与人类发展
IF 4 2区 农林科学
Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103571
Lucas Alencar , Luke Parry , Felipe Melo
{"title":"Deforestation and human development in the Brazilian tropical dry forest","authors":"Lucas Alencar ,&nbsp;Luke Parry ,&nbsp;Felipe Melo","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103571","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103571","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The relationship between tropical deforestation and human development is unclear and contested. We evaluated the boom-bust hypothesis across agricultural frontiers in the Brazilian Caatinga dry forest, one of the largest dry forests in the world and home to 28 million people. We used panel data (1991, 2000 and 2010), and cross-sectional data (2010) from 1207 municipalities to assess how development indicators are linked to deforestation through a quasi-experimental approach. Our main finding is that deforestation in the Caatinga is associated with a boom-bust development pattern or at least to a stagnation in development in highly deforested municipalities. Municipalities at the advanced stage of deforestation (&lt;33 % of forest cover remaining) in 1991 generally had higher development indicators than the initial stage (&gt;66 % remaining), but differences between these groups disappeared by 2010. Intermediate stage municipalities (33–66 % remaining) consistently outperformed initial and/or advanced stage municipalities in four out of six development indicators (longevity, monetary income, extreme poverty prevalence, and child mortality), indicating a temporary ‘boom’ during frontier advance, followed by a stagnation. Evidence of a boom-bust was supported by cross-sectional analysis of 2010 data using propensity score weighting and a spatial autoregressive model. Overall, our findings contribute to on-going debate and strengthen the boom-bust hypothesis. By implication, the mere consumption of natural resources is inadequate to ensure sustained development progress. Achieving sustainability in Brazil's agricultural frontiers necessitates more than apolitical technical solutions; it requires active engagement by the state, non-state institutions, and society as a whole to address the country's deep-seated inequalities and imbalanced power dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103571"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Empowering women in Southeast Asia's small-scale wood processing sector: The practitioners' perspective 东南亚小型木材加工部门的妇女赋权:从业者的视角
IF 4 2区 农林科学
Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103563
Thomas Colonna , Ratchada Arpornsilp , Iola Leal Riesco
{"title":"Empowering women in Southeast Asia's small-scale wood processing sector: The practitioners' perspective","authors":"Thomas Colonna ,&nbsp;Ratchada Arpornsilp ,&nbsp;Iola Leal Riesco","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103563","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103563","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This commentary draws on field-based experience to explore strategies for promoting gender equality in Southeast Asia's small-scale wood processing sector, with a focus on micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Despite women significantly contributing to the development of these enterprises and being drivers of rural employment and economic growth, gender-focused research in the Southeast Asian wood processing sector remains limited. Most literature on gender and forest economics has concentrated on forest management and community forestry.</div><div>Addressing this gap from the practitioners' perspective, this commentary describes three broad strategies for promoting gender equality among wood-based MSMEs, tested in four Southeast Asian countries: capacity building, enhancing public engagement, and promoting inclusive value chains. The analysis is grounded in practical implementation under the European Forest Institute's Forest Smallholders Project (2018–2023), which aimed to improve gender equality and women's economic empowerment in timber value chains. Insights from the three strategies highlight pathways to increase women's access to decent work and employment opportunities in this traditionally male-dominated arena.</div><div>The commentary concludes that while all three strategies proved effective, their replication and scaling potential depend on contextual factors, available time and financial resources, and local adoption. A common feature in all three strategies is the importance of actively engaging government authorities and non-government partners, such as technical vocational schools, civil society organizations, and industry associations. The findings also reaffirm that combining gender sensitisation in technical capacity building and leadership development is more likely to be transformative when delivered alongside improved market access and other economic opportunities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103563"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The transformation of the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) Certification Scheme in Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine 全面入侵乌克兰后,俄罗斯森林管理委员会(FSC)认证计划的转型
IF 4 2区 农林科学
Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103559
Maria Tysiachniouk , Alexander Vorbrugg
{"title":"The transformation of the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) Certification Scheme in Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine","authors":"Maria Tysiachniouk ,&nbsp;Alexander Vorbrugg","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103559","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103559","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article investigates the transformation of the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) certification scheme in Russia into the complementary Forest Etalon (FE) scheme after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Before the invasion, Russia had the largest FSC-certified forest area worldwide. The FSC gradually withdrew from Russia following the invasion and the sanctions that followed. Yet, forest certification did not disappear with the FSC. The FE, composed largely of former FSC staff and national FSC members, has emerged as the most prominent forest certification organisation in Russia to date (2024). It uses FSC standards for its certificates, and carries on many principles, mechanisms, and resources inherited from the FSC. The article draws on semi-structured interviews, participant observation, and the concept of Governance Generating Networks to analyse the transformation of the FSC into the FE certification scheme and underlying institutional arrangements. It shows how former FSC staff in Russia used the FE to preserve FSC values and standards, and traces how changes in political-economic circumstances since 2022 impacted the agency of and relationship between actors and institutions relevant to the certification network. We argue that this case may be a precursor to future contractions and disruptions in global (forest) governance. Against this background, this analysis contributes to a better understanding of adaptation to fundamental political-economic changes and uncertainty significant beyond the specific case.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103559"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Integrating economic and ecological drivers in forest product yield forecasting: A Finnish case study 在林产品产量预测中整合经济和生态驱动因素:芬兰案例研究
IF 4 2区 农林科学
Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103564
Xuekun Cheng , Mengchen Hu , Sarita Keski-Saari , Xudan Zhu , Yufeng Zhou , Frank Berninger , Guomo Zhou
{"title":"Integrating economic and ecological drivers in forest product yield forecasting: A Finnish case study","authors":"Xuekun Cheng ,&nbsp;Mengchen Hu ,&nbsp;Sarita Keski-Saari ,&nbsp;Xudan Zhu ,&nbsp;Yufeng Zhou ,&nbsp;Frank Berninger ,&nbsp;Guomo Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103564","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.forpol.2025.103564","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As global climate change intensifies, sustainable forest resource management is essential for carbon storage, climate regulation, and providing forest products. This study integrates the Cobb-Douglas function with the random forest model to predict forest product yields. The Cobb-Douglas-random forest model achieves high accuracy, predicting 96 % of historical data (<em>P</em> &lt; 0.001). Our analysis highlights the significant role of solar radiation (52 %) and the interaction between environmental factors (62 %) and societal factors (38 %) in forest production. While the photoperiod remains unchanged, our findings show that forest yield can be influenced by policies, especially in the face of climate change. Under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, Finnish forest products remain stable under SSP126, demonstrating the benefits of stringent environmental policies. However, under SSP370 and SSP585, significant declines in forest products occur, especially in high-emission scenarios. Spatial variability in forest responses to climate change is observed, with northern Finland being more vulnerable. This study introduces an innovative model for predicting future forest product yields, essential for long-term sustainable forest management. We emphasize the importance of sustainable forest management that balances economic development with ecological protection, yet also considering region-specific contexts in Finland. This case study serves as a solid foundation for the global application of our model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 103564"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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