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Dynamic Network Quantile Regression Model 动态网络分位数回归模型
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics Pub Date : 2021-11-15 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2093882
Xiu Xu, Weining Wang, Y. Shin, Chaowen Zheng
{"title":"Dynamic Network Quantile Regression Model","authors":"Xiu Xu, Weining Wang, Y. Shin, Chaowen Zheng","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2093882","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2093882","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a dynamic network quantile regression model to investigate the quantile connectedness using a predetermined network information. We extend the existing network quantile autoregression model of Zhu et al. (2019b) by explicitly allowing the contemporaneous network effects and controlling for the common factors across quantiles. To cope with the endogeneity issue due to simultaneous network spillovers, we adopt the instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) estimation and derive the consistency and asymptotic normality of the IVQR estimator using the near epoch dependence property of the network process. Via Monte Carlo simulations, we confirm the satisfactory performance of the IVQR estimator across different quantiles under the different network structures. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our proposed approach with an application to the dataset on the stocks traded in NYSE and NASDAQ in 2016. JEL classification: C32, C51, G17","PeriodicalId":118766,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134176488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Large Order-Invariant Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility 具有随机波动率的大阶不变贝叶斯变量
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics Pub Date : 2021-11-14 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2023.2252039
J. Chan, G. Koop, Xuewen Yu
{"title":"Large Order-Invariant Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility","authors":"J. Chan, G. Koop, Xuewen Yu","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2023.2252039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2023.2252039","url":null,"abstract":"Many popular specifications for Vector Autoregressions (VARs) with multivariate stochastic volatility are not invariant to the way the variables are ordered due to the use of a Cholesky decomposition for the error covariance matrix. We show that the order invariance problem in existing approaches is likely to become more serious in large VARs. We propose the use of a specification which avoids the use of this Cholesky decomposition. We show that the presence of multivariate stochastic volatility allows for identification of the proposed model and prove that it is invariant to ordering. We develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm which allows for Bayesian estimation and prediction. In exercises involving artificial and real macroeconomic data, we demonstrate that the choice of variable ordering can have non-negligible effects on empirical results. In a macroeconomic forecasting exercise involving VARs with 20 variables we find that our order-invariant approach leads to the best forecasts and that some choices of variable ordering can lead to poor forecasts using a conventional, non-order invariant, approach.","PeriodicalId":118766,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"215 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123869828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 18
Bootstrap inference for panel data quantile regression* 面板数据分位数回归的自举推理*
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics Pub Date : 2021-11-05 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2023.2210189
A. Galvao, Thomas Parker, Zhijie Xiao
{"title":"Bootstrap inference for panel data quantile regression*","authors":"A. Galvao, Thomas Parker, Zhijie Xiao","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2023.2210189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2023.2210189","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops bootstrap methods for practical statistical inference in panel data quantile regression models with fixed effects. We consider random-weighted bootstrap resampling and formally establish its validity for asymptotic inference. The bootstrap algorithm is simple to implement in practice by using a weighted quantile regression estimation for fixed effects panel data. We provide results under conditions that allow for temporal dependence of observations within individuals, thus encompassing a large class of possible empirical applications. Monte Carlo simulations provide numerical evidence the proposed bootstrap methods have correct finite sample properties. Finally, we provide an empirical illustration using the environmental Kuznets curve.","PeriodicalId":118766,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126814826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Graphical Assistant Grouped Network Autoregression Model: a Bayesian Nonparametric Recourse 图形辅助分组网络自回归模型:贝叶斯非参数资源
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics Pub Date : 2021-10-11 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2143784
Yi Ren, Xuening Zhu, Xiaoling Lu, Guanyu Hu
{"title":"Graphical Assistant Grouped Network Autoregression Model: a Bayesian Nonparametric Recourse","authors":"Yi Ren, Xuening Zhu, Xiaoling Lu, Guanyu Hu","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2143784","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2143784","url":null,"abstract":"Vector autoregression model is ubiquitous in classical time series data analysis. With the rapid advance of social network sites, time series data over latent graph is becoming increasingly popular. In this paper, we develop a novel Bayesian grouped network autoregression model to simultaneously estimate group information (number of groups and group configurations) and group-wise parameters. Specifically, a graphically assisted Chinese restaurant process is incorporated under framework of the network autoregression model to improve the statistical inference performance. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is used to sample from the posterior distribution. Extensive studies are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of our proposed methodology. Additionally, we analyze two real datasets as illustrations of the effectiveness of our approach.","PeriodicalId":118766,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124232850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Neural Networks for Partially Linear Quantile Regression 部分线性分位数回归的神经网络
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics Pub Date : 2021-06-11 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2023.2208183
Qixian Zhong, Jane-ling Wang
{"title":"Neural Networks for Partially Linear Quantile Regression","authors":"Qixian Zhong, Jane-ling Wang","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2023.2208183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2023.2208183","url":null,"abstract":"Deep learning has enjoyed tremendous success in a variety of applications but its application to quantile regressions remains scarce. A major advantage of the deep learning approach is its flexibility to model complex data in a more parsimonious way than nonparametric smoothing methods. However, while deep learning brought breakthroughs in prediction, it often lacks interpretability due to the black-box nature of multilayer structure with millions of parameters, hence it is not well suited for statistical inference. In this paper, we leverage the advantages of deep learning to apply it to quantile regression where the goal to produce interpretable results and perform statistical inference. We achieve this by adopting a semiparametric approach based on the partially linear quantile regression model, where covariates of primary interest for statistical inference are modelled linearly and all other covariates are modelled nonparametrically by means of a deep neural network. In addition to the new methodology, we provide theoretical justification for the proposed model by establishing the root-$n$ consistency and asymptotically normality of the parametric coefficient estimator and the minimax optimal convergence rate of the neural nonparametric function estimator. Across several simulated and real data examples, our proposed model empirically produces superior estimates and more accurate predictions than various alternative approaches.","PeriodicalId":118766,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128836471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Backtesting Systemic Risk Forecasts using Multi-Objective Elicitability 利用多目标可得性对系统风险预测进行回溯测试
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics Pub Date : 2021-04-20 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2023.2200514
Tobias Fissler, Y. Hoga
{"title":"Backtesting Systemic Risk Forecasts using Multi-Objective Elicitability","authors":"Tobias Fissler, Y. Hoga","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2023.2200514","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2023.2200514","url":null,"abstract":"Systemic risk measures such as CoVaR, CoES and MES are widely-used in finance, macroeconomics and by regulatory bodies. Despite their importance, we show that they fail to be elicitable and identifiable. This renders forecast comparison and validation, commonly summarised as `backtesting', impossible. The novel notion of emph{multi-objective elicitability} solves this problem. Specifically, we propose Diebold--Mariano type tests utilising two-dimensional scores equipped with the lexicographic order. We illustrate the test decisions by an easy-to-apply traffic-light approach. We apply our traffic-light approach to DAX~30 and S&P~500 returns, and infer some recommendations for regulators.","PeriodicalId":118766,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"104 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133461890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Probabilistic forecast reconciliation under the Gaussian framework 高斯框架下的概率预测调和
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics Pub Date : 2021-03-20 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2023.2181176
Shanika L. Wickramasuriya
{"title":"Probabilistic forecast reconciliation under the Gaussian framework","authors":"Shanika L. Wickramasuriya","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2023.2181176","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2023.2181176","url":null,"abstract":"Forecast reconciliation of multivariate time series is the process of mapping a set of incoherent forecasts into coherent forecasts to satisfy a given set of linear constraints. Commonly used projection matrix based approaches for point forecast reconciliation are OLS (ordinary least squares), WLS (weighted least squares), and MinT (minimum trace). Even though point forecast reconciliation is a well-established field of research, the literature on generating probabilistic forecasts subject to linear constraints is somewhat limited. Available methods follow a two-step procedure. Firstly, it draws future sample paths from the univariate models fitted to each series in the collection (which are incoherent). Secondly, it uses a projection matrix based approach or empirical copula based reordering approach to account for contemporaneous correlations and linear constraints. The projection matrices are estimated either by optimizing a scoring rule such as energy or variogram score, or simply using a projection matrix derived for point forecast reconciliation. This paper proves that (a) if the incoherent predictive distribution is Gaussian then MinT minimizes the logarithmic scoring rule; and (b) the logarithmic score of MinT for each marginal predictive density is smaller than that of OLS. We show these theoretical results using a set of simulation studies. We also evaluate them using the Australian domestic tourism data set.","PeriodicalId":118766,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124951957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
A Design-Based Perspective on Synthetic Control Methods 基于设计的综合控制方法研究
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics Pub Date : 2021-01-23 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2023.2238788
L. Bottmer, G. Imbens, Jann Spiess, Merrill Warnick
{"title":"A Design-Based Perspective on Synthetic Control Methods","authors":"L. Bottmer, G. Imbens, Jann Spiess, Merrill Warnick","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2023.2238788","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2023.2238788","url":null,"abstract":"Since their introduction in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), Synthetic Control (SC) methods have quickly become one of the leading methods for estimating causal effects in observational studies in settings with panel data. Formal discussions often motivate SC methods by the assumption that the potential outcomes were generated by a factor model. Here we study SC methods from a design-based perspective, assuming a model for the selection of the treated unit(s) and period(s). We show that the standard SC estimator is generally biased under random assignment. We propose a Modified Unbiased Synthetic Control (MUSC) estimator that guarantees unbiasedness under random assignment and derive its exact, randomization-based, finite-sample variance. We also propose an unbiased estimator for this variance. We document in settings with real data that under random assignment, SC-type estimators can have root mean-squared errors that are substantially lower than that of other common estimators. We show that such an improvement is weakly guaranteed if the treated period is similar to the other periods, for example, if the treated period was randomly selected. While our results only directly apply in settings where treatment is assigned randomly, we believe that they can complement model-based approaches even for observational studies.","PeriodicalId":118766,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"176 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114075169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Assessing Sensitivity to Unconfoundedness: Estimation and Inference 评估对非混杂性的敏感性:估计和推断
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2023.2183212
Matthew A. Masten, Alexandre Poirier, Linqi Zhang
{"title":"Assessing Sensitivity to Unconfoundedness: Estimation and Inference","authors":"Matthew A. Masten, Alexandre Poirier, Linqi Zhang","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2023.2183212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2023.2183212","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a set of methods for quantifying the robustness of treatment effects estimated using the unconfoundedness assumption (also known as selection on observables or conditional independence). Specifically, we estimate and do inference on bounds on various treatment effect parameters, like the average treatment effect (ATE) and the average effect of treatment on the treated (ATT), under nonparametric relaxations of the unconfoundedness assumption indexed by a scalar sensitivity parameter c. These relaxations allow for limited selection on unobservables, depending on the value of c. For large enough c, these bounds equal the no assumptions bounds. Using a non-standard bootstrap method, we show how to construct confidence bands for these bound functions which are uniform over all values of c. We illustrate these methods with an empirical application to effects of the National Supported Work Demonstration program. We implement these methods in a companion Stata module for easy use in practice. Classification- C14, C18, C21, C51","PeriodicalId":118766,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130928807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Two-directional simultaneous inference for high-dimensional models 高维模型的双向同时推理
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics Pub Date : 2020-12-21 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2023.2191672
Wei Liu, Huazhen Lin, Jin Liu, Shu-rong Zheng
{"title":"Two-directional simultaneous inference for high-dimensional models","authors":"Wei Liu, Huazhen Lin, Jin Liu, Shu-rong Zheng","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2023.2191672","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2023.2191672","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a general two directional simultaneous inference (TOSI) framework for high-dimensional models with a manifest variable or latent variable structure, for example, high-dimensional mean models, high-dimensional sparse regression models, and high-dimensional latent factors models. TOSI performs simultaneous inference on a set of parameters from two directions, one to test whether the assumed zero parameters indeed are zeros and one to test whether exist zeros in the parameter set of nonzeros. As a result, we can exactly identify whether the parameters are zeros, thereby keeping the data structure fully and parsimoniously expressed. We theoretically prove that the proposed TOSI method asymptotically controls the Type I error at the prespecified significance level and that the testing power converges to one. Simulations are conducted to examine the performance of the proposed method in finite sample situations and two real datasets are analyzed. The results show that the TOSI method is more predictive and has more interpretable estimators than existing methods.","PeriodicalId":118766,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114461405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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