IF 9 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136783

Yuxin Zhang , Yalian Yang , Yunge Zou , Changdong Liu

{"title":"Synergy optimization of energy management strategy for extended-range electric vehicles incorporating road noise perception","authors":"Yuxin Zhang , Yalian Yang , Yunge Zou , Changdong Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136783","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136783","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) experience a notable increase in noise, vibration, and harshness (NVH) during range extender operation. To address this challenge, a multi-objective optimization energy management strategy incorporating road noise perception is proposed. First, a road noise prediction model is established, comprising pavement identification and velocity prediction sub-models. Based on this, an innovative NVH-oriented multi-objective Pontryagin's minimum principle (N-PMP) control algorithm is developed to optimize both fuel economy and NVH performance. Furthermore, by leveraging road noise prediction results, an integrated model predictive control (MPC)-N-PMP strategy is introduced to achieve ultra-quiet operation through the optimization of control variables. Simulation results demonstrate that the MPC-N-PMP algorithm effectively reduces noise levels while meeting real-time computational requirements compared to the MPC-PMP approach. Specifically, an 8.56 % reduction in NVH levels is achieved with only a marginal 2.32 % increase in fuel consumption, substantially enhancing overall vehicle comfort. Finally, the strategy's feasibility is validated through hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) experiments, laying a strong foundation for the future implementation of intelligent and efficient quiet control strategies in automotive applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 136783"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144166363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Thermal-mechanical coupling behavior analysis of solid-state constrained component in advanced nuclear energy system 先进核能系统中固态约束构件的热-力耦合行为分析

IF 9 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136779

Xuan Yang , Quan Li , Jing Zhang , Yingwei Wu , Yanan He , Chenxi Li , Mingjun Wang , Kailun Guo , Chenglong Wang , G.H. Su , Wenxi Tian , Suizheng Qiu

{"title":"Thermal-mechanical coupling behavior analysis of solid-state constrained component in advanced nuclear energy system","authors":"Xuan Yang , Quan Li , Jing Zhang , Yingwei Wu , Yanan He , Chenxi Li , Mingjun Wang , Kailun Guo , Chenglong Wang , G.H. Su , Wenxi Tian , Suizheng Qiu","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136779","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136779","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the advantage of phase change heat transfer, heat pipes have the potential to replace flowing coolants for removing fission heat from nuclear reactors. However, the solid-state constrained heat transfer configuration poses mutual constraints between mechanical properties and heat transfer, and their long-term thermal-mechanical coupling behavior requires further investigation. Currently, research on long-term behavior is limited to either individual/local system components or a single physical field. In this paper, an analysis method for coupled thermal-mechanical behavior is proposed and verified, comprehensively considering thermal-mechanical properties, interactions between components, and the fission gas release. This method is employed to analyze the operating characteristics of a solid-state constrained component. The results indicate that prolonged operation leads to complete contact between structural components, generating high contact pressure that enhances heat transfer but increases creep. The release of gaseous fission products, accumulated over operating time, results in a synchronous increase in both gap and external contact pressures, reaching 5.2 MPa and 4.8 MPa, respectively. This process reduces the gas gap conductance, leading to elevated system peak temperatures and a reduction in temperature safety margins by 43 K. After heat pipe failure, continued operation significantly increases the local creep strain, up to 3.9 times that under normal conditions. The gap size and fuel gap pressure should be optimized to enhance gap heat transfer and reduce component creep. Excessive fission gas release should be avoided in fuel configuration. Reducing the system power following a single heat pipe failure can mitigate component creep and extend the operational lifespan.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"330 ","pages":"Article 136779"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An experimental and ReaxFF-MD simulation study on effects of ferrocene on combustion characteristics of biodiesel-diesel blends 二茂铁对生物柴油-柴油混合燃料燃烧特性影响的实验及ReaxFF-MD模拟研究

IF 9 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136745

Zhiheng Zhu , Meng Sui , Yaozong Duan , Huicong Zhang , Fashe Li , Hua Wang

{"title":"An experimental and ReaxFF-MD simulation study on effects of ferrocene on combustion characteristics of biodiesel-diesel blends","authors":"Zhiheng Zhu , Meng Sui , Yaozong Duan , Huicong Zhang , Fashe Li , Hua Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136745","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136745","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Biodiesel has high viscosity, leading to incomplete combustion when blended with diesel. Adding combustion catalysts has emerged as an effective method to mitigate these issues. Ferrocene possesses high oil solubility, making it suitable as a combustion catalyst, yet its influential mechanism on the combustion characteristics of biodiesel-diesel blends remains unclear. In this study, TG-FTIR-MS experiments and ReaxFF-MD simulations were conducted to systematically elucidate the impact of ferrocene on the pyrolysis, oxidation, pollutant emission characteristics of Jatropha biodiesel-diesel blends (BD50), as well as the dominant reaction mechanism. The findings indicate that ferrocene reduces the activation energy (<span><math><mrow><msub><mi>E</mi><mi>a</mi></msub></mrow></math></span>) of the pyrolysis and oxidation in the BD50 by 5.85 kJ/mol and 6.30 kJ/mol. Ferrocene promotes the hydrogen abstraction reaction of fuels with H in pyrolysis to produce more H<sub>2</sub>. Ferrocene boosts the oxidation process of BD50 by enhancing the hydrogen abstraction reactions of fuels with O<sub>2</sub>, ·OH and ·OOH. Ferrocene results in a 24.9 % reduction in CO emissions, a 21.9 % increase in NO<sub>x</sub> emissions, and a 19.53 % reduction in soot particle size. The findings provide theoretical and practical guidance for the development of clean and efficient combustion for biodiesel-diesel.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 136745"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mechanistic insights into alkali metal migration and slagging behavior in K-type biomass ash during thermal conversion 热转化过程中k型生物质灰中碱金属迁移和结渣行为的机理研究

IF 9 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136800

Bo Liu, Jingxu Tian, Peixin Wang, Zhanpeng Deng, Xiang Xu, Zheng Zeng, Liqing Li

{"title":"Mechanistic insights into alkali metal migration and slagging behavior in K-type biomass ash during thermal conversion","authors":"Bo Liu, Jingxu Tian, Peixin Wang, Zhanpeng Deng, Xiang Xu, Zheng Zeng, Liqing Li","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136800","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136800","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Severe slagging phenomena in biomass ash under elevated temperatures have been associated with alkali metal migration. It is imperative to conduct research on alkali metal migration in biomass ash slagging during thermal conversion. Here, the migration of alkali metals in two K-type biomass ashes (coconut husk ash and corn cob ash) during thermal conversion was investigated. The study concluded that alkali metal migration is a primary cause of biomass ash slagging, with elevated ashing temperatures promoting this migration. At temperatures above 700 °C, silicate eutectic compounds formed in biomass ash, promoting intensified ash slagging. KCl, K<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub>, and K<sub>2</sub>CO<sub>3</sub> all exhibit a tendency to transform into eutectic silicate compounds in high-temperature environments. The water leaching treatment of biomass raw materials notably inhibited the formation of ash, and the ash yield decreased by 55.58 %. This research explores alkali metal migration in K-type biomass ash during thermal conversion and explores its impact on biomass ash slagging. This mechanistic understanding advances predictive capabilities for biomass combustion systems and informs the development of anti-slagging technologies in thermochemical conversion applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 136800"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Numerical investigation of coupling approaches and dimpled structure on melting characteristics in PCM capsule packed-bed 耦合方法和凹窝结构对PCM胶囊填充床熔化特性的数值研究

IF 9 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136796

Haonan Jia, Jian Yang, Yuhang Tian, Jie Chen, Qiuwang Wang

{"title":"Numerical investigation of coupling approaches and dimpled structure on melting characteristics in PCM capsule packed-bed","authors":"Haonan Jia, Jian Yang, Yuhang Tian, Jie Chen, Qiuwang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136796","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136796","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In solar energy utilization, phase change material (PCM) spherical capsule packed-bed systems can effectively mitigate intermittency and fluctuation issues. However, convective heat transfer between the fluid and capsules significantly influences thermal storage, and the impact of different treatment methods on the phase-change process still requires in-depth investigation. This study employs numerical methods to analyze the effects of constant temperature, sequential coupling and bidirectional coupling approaches on the melting process. Results show that different treatment methods have a significant impact on the melting rate. The constant temperature method exhibits the fastest melting rate, while in sequential and bidirectional coupling methods, the melting rate accelerates with increasing inlet velocity due to enhanced convective heat transfer. The liquid fraction and flow pattern distribution vary depending on the method, with the bidirectional coupling method showing more uniform distribution of liquid PCM on the windward side compared to sequential coupling. Additionally, the dimpled structure accelerates the melting rate under all treatment methods, but the extent of enhancement differs: sequential coupling amplifies the enhancement effect compared to bidirectional coupling, while the constant temperature method weakens it. Finally, a correlation formula for the complete melting time is established, with an average error of 2.4 %.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 136796"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144154723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Catalytic co-pyrolysis of hydrolyzed lignin and waste tires over NiMo modified HZSM-5/MCM-41 composite molecular sieve in microwave fluidized bed for monocyclic aromatic hydrocarbons NiMo改性HZSM-5/MCM-41复合分子筛在微波流化床催化共热解木质素水解产物和废轮胎制备单环芳烃

IF 9 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136812

Wei Wang , Zhaoping Zhong , Xiang Zheng , Qihang Ye , Yihui Li , Yuxuan Yang , Renzhi Qi

{"title":"Catalytic co-pyrolysis of hydrolyzed lignin and waste tires over NiMo modified HZSM-5/MCM-41 composite molecular sieve in microwave fluidized bed for monocyclic aromatic hydrocarbons","authors":"Wei Wang , Zhaoping Zhong , Xiang Zheng , Qihang Ye , Yihui Li , Yuxuan Yang , Renzhi Qi","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136812","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136812","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High oxygen content is unfavorable for the deoxygenation process during the thermal conversion of hydrolyzed lignin into liquid fuel. This study investigated the effects of nickel and molybdenum supported on molecular sieves, as well as temperature, on the catalytic co-pyrolysis of hydrolyzed lignin and waste tires in a microwave fluidized bed for the production of monocyclic aromatics. Results indicated that the hydrocarbon radicals generated by the added waste tires quenched the oxygen radicals from hydrolyzed lignin, improved the distribution of co-pyrolysis products and mitigated the coking of the catalyst. Compared to the composite molecular sieve carrier, under the action of the bimetallic co-loaded catalyst, at 550 °C and with a Ni:Mo ratio of 2:1, the ideal bio-oil yield reached the highest of 42.64 wt%, and the selectivity of MAHs is 46.15 %. The microwave fluidized bed catalytic co-pyrolysis process provides an efficient approach for converting organic solid wastes, such as hydrolyzed lignin and waste tires, into high-value products, including monoaromatic hydrocarbons.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 136812"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modelling of asynchronous inertia of induction motor loads and studying the effect on the frequency response of renewable energy power systems with high wind power penetration 异步电机负载的异步惯性建模及对高风电渗透率可再生能源电力系统频率响应的影响研究

IF 9 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136805

Shiqiang Hou, Wei Cai, Yanling Lv, Mingze Zhang

{"title":"Modelling of asynchronous inertia of induction motor loads and studying the effect on the frequency response of renewable energy power systems with high wind power penetration","authors":"Shiqiang Hou, Wei Cai, Yanling Lv, Mingze Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136805","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136805","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The inertia of renewable energy power systems is reduced, which causes the deterioration of system frequency response (SFR). The asynchronous inertia provided by the induction motor loads in the process of the SFR is worth studying. The asynchronous inertia model is established based on the small-signal analysis method and the relationship between the operating state of the induction motor and the asynchronous inertia is analyzed. The SFR model of renewable energy power systems including asynchronous inertia is established and the effects of asynchronous inertia on the dynamic of the SFR is analyzed. The asynchronous inertia has a time-varying characteristic and is influenced by the initial operating conditions and the torque-slip characteristic of the induction motor, the inertia time constant of the rotor, and the mechanical characteristics of the load. The asynchronous inertia reduces the maximum frequency deviation (FD), which enables the rate of change of frequency (RoCoF) to be reduced. The maximum RoCoF is not affected by the asynchronous inertia, but the steady-state FD is reduced. The asynchronous inertia has a more significant improvement on the dynamic of the SFR in the power systems with high renewable energy permeability. The conclusions are verified by the simulations and experiments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"330 ","pages":"Article 136805"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Pyrolysis behavior of Sabina chinensis leaves: kinetic and thermodynamic analysis based on TG-FTIR and BP neural network 杉木叶片热解行为：基于TG-FTIR和BP神经网络的动力学和热力学分析

IF 9 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136819

Yuan Wu , Xiaolu Chen , Qian Xie , Fahang Liu , Fasheng Miao , Changhai Li , Yanming Ding

{"title":"Pyrolysis behavior of Sabina chinensis leaves: kinetic and thermodynamic analysis based on TG-FTIR and BP neural network","authors":"Yuan Wu , Xiaolu Chen , Qian Xie , Fahang Liu , Fasheng Miao , Changhai Li , Yanming Ding","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136819","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136819","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Biomass resources play a crucial role in meeting our energy, chemical and material demands. <em>Sabina chinensis</em>, a biomass material with diverse constituents, can be effectively treated using pyrolysis, enhancing its resource utilization. This study investigated the pyrolysis behavior of <em>Sabina chinensis</em> leaves, whose pyrolysis process exhibited three distinct stages: (1) stage Ⅰ (moisture evolution), (2) stage Ⅱ (decomposition of hemicellulose, cellulose, and lignin, yielding CO<sub>2</sub>, methane, methanol, formaldehyde, and other products), and (3) stage Ⅲ (gradual decomposition of metal carbonates in residues). Using deconvolution and model-free methods, fundamental kinetic parameters for the pyrolysis of hemicellulose, cellulose, and lignin were estimated. Activation energies of 160.70, 180.49, and 159.73 kJ/mol were obtained for hemicellulose, cellulose and lignin, respectively. Thermodynamic analysis revealed enthalpy change values of 153.74–181.29 kJ/mol, Gibbs free energy change values of 277.94–338.10 kJ/mol, and negative entropy change values, demonstrating the energy potential of <em>Sabina chinensis</em> leaves. Furthermore, a backpropagation neural network, trained using mass and gas product data at multiple heating rates, successfully predicted the temperature-dependent mass loss and gas yield evolution throughout the pyrolysis process.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 136819"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144154721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Study of an equivalent mechanical model and experimental validation to predict the impact slippage of a full-dimensional PEMFC stack for commercial trucks 商用卡车全维PEMFC叠垛冲击滑移等效力学模型研究及试验验证

IF 9 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136727

Zhiming Zhang , Chaokuan Fang , Juannan Zhang , Hui Ren , Tong Zhang , Ping Wei , Xinzhen Shi , Xinfeng Zhang

{"title":"Study of an equivalent mechanical model and experimental validation to predict the impact slippage of a full-dimensional PEMFC stack for commercial trucks","authors":"Zhiming Zhang , Chaokuan Fang , Juannan Zhang , Hui Ren , Tong Zhang , Ping Wei , Xinzhen Shi , Xinfeng Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136727","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136727","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As hydrogen and Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells are well applied in commercial heavy trucks for sustainable energy conversation to decrease diesel requirement, however the number of cells in a large full-dimensional fuel cell stack can reach between 600 and 700 cells. Due to the inevitable difficulties of modeling of a large full-dimensional fuel cell stack, the purpose of this study is to propose an effective equivalent modeling to predict the contact pressure and the normal force. Representative volume element (RVE) homogenization method is implemented to simplify the mesh and to avoid the convergence difficulties. To validate this equivalent model, experiments with pressure-sensitive film to measure the contact pressure distribution are carried out. The equivalent model has a great agreement with the experimental results and the maximum error is within 8 %. Finally, based on this equivalent model, the impact dynamic behaviors of a large full-dimensional fuel cell stack with 100 cells are established and the results of the maximum relative slippage and maximum absolute slippage of the whole fuel cell stack are presented. This study offers an effective and efficient modeling and simulation method to study the large full-dimensional fuel cell stack and even impact slippage applied on the commercial truck.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"330 ","pages":"Article 136727"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144168215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Development of crude oil in Pakistan: The role of oil production, macroeconomic factors and environment 巴基斯坦原油开发：石油生产、宏观经济因素和环境的作用

IF 9 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136793

Muhammad Yousaf Raza , Boqiang Lin

{"title":"Development of crude oil in Pakistan: The role of oil production, macroeconomic factors and environment","authors":"Muhammad Yousaf Raza , Boqiang Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136793","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.136793","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Carbon emissions from fossil fuels have turned-out one of the most hazardous and complex issues driving the climate change debate. The growing demand for crude oil import plays a significant role in country's economy at the same time increasing worldwide emissions. This study estimates the relationship among five major contributing factors, including crude-oil-production, inflation rate, human and economic development, and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from 1986 to 2022. To explore the relationship between energy and non-energy factors, the autoregressive distributive lag, Johansen cointegration trace and prediction models are employed to investigate the integrations of variables, which is good fit to organize the short and long-run impacts. The main results show that (i) carbon emissions and economic growth appear to have inadequate effect on crude oil production in the short-run; however, a long-run relationship is found between human development index and the inflation rate which can be maintained by minimum dependence on imported fuel. (ii) The eigen and trace cointegration relationship provides a unique relationship at the 0.05 % significance level between estimated variables, indicating long-run relationship between them. (iii) The prediction analysis shows that root mean square error is greater than mean absolute error while mean absolute percentage error for crude oil production is estimated at 7.4 %, proposing that crude oil processing in the country can fight against inflation. Finally, being a necessary product, policies can be expressed to support Pakistan in obtaining crude oil production that is advantageous to economic and societal progress regarding regulations and ecological criteria.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"329 ","pages":"Article 136793"},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

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