IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.138797

Xinquan Tan , Mao Tan , Zibin Li , Rui Wang , Hanmei Peng , Juan Zou

{"title":"Preference-based multi-objective energy retail package for efficient and flexible demand response of energy community","authors":"Xinquan Tan , Mao Tan , Zibin Li , Rui Wang , Hanmei Peng , Juan Zou","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138797","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138797","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As critical infrastructure, energy communities are essential for promoting energy sustainability and community economic development. However, current demand response (DR) management practices in communities face issues that deter diverse consumer participation. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a new energy retail package (EngyRP) mechanism for DR management of the energy community. First, we propose a DR degree classification method based on energy usage behavior to address the problem of consumer privacy violation in other methods. Second, we introduce a preferred multi-objective EngyRP design method to meet the individual needs of different energy communities. Finally, considering the multidimensional characteristics of consumer demand, we transform the factors affecting satisfaction into quantifiable linear and nonlinear functions based on the Kano model. The experimental results show that compared with other methods, this method can attract more consumers to participate in DR, further improve the peak shaving and valley filling ratio of the system, and increase the operator’s revenue while improving consumer satisfaction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"338 ","pages":"Article 138797"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145270924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Emission-constrained LPV-MPC control for marine RCCI engines based on hybrid grey-box modeling 基于混合灰盒建模的船用RCCI发动机LPV-MPC排放约束控制

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.138792

Xinyue Zhang , Enzhe Song , Yongan Yan , Zhongyi Han , Xuchun Zhao

{"title":"Emission-constrained LPV-MPC control for marine RCCI engines based on hybrid grey-box modeling","authors":"Xinyue Zhang , Enzhe Song , Yongan Yan , Zhongyi Han , Xuchun Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138792","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138792","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As global decarbonization policies tighten, accurate prediction and control of combustion and emission behavior in Reactivity Controlled Compression Ignition (RCCI) engines are crucial to achieving high efficiency and ultra-low emissions in the maritime industry. A hybrid grey-box framework combining a physics-based combustion model with LSTM networks is constructed to accurately predict CA50, IMEP, MPRR, and emissions including CO and THC. Additionally, an LPV state-space model is then identified by using LS-SVM with fuel quantity as scheduling parameters for fast and adaptive prediction under dynamic conditions. Furthermore, a multi-objective MIMO MPC controller is designed to track CA50 and IMEP, while constraining MPRR, COVIMEP, and emissions. Moreover, GA and PSO methods are employed to optimize MPC weights and reference trajectories, thereby enhancing control performance. The proposed control strategy can reduce CA50 and IMEP tracking errors by 35.6 % and 29.1 %, respectively, and reduce CO and THC emissions by up to 12.7 %, compared to a conventional PI controller, while ensuring smooth actuator and constraint satisfaction. This framework could provide an effective approach for intelligent RCCI engine management, thus supporting cleaner combustion and enhanced efficiency in the maritime sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"338 ","pages":"Article 138792"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145270942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Optimal vehicle dynamics and powertrain control of carbon-free autonomous vehicles: Large language model assisted heterogeneous-agent learning 无碳自动驾驶汽车的最优车辆动力学和动力系统控制：大语言模型辅助异构智能体学习

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.138786

Hao Zhang , Jiawen Dong , Nuo Lei , Yikun Qin , Bingbing Li , Chaoyi Chen , Boli Chen

{"title":"Optimal vehicle dynamics and powertrain control of carbon-free autonomous vehicles: Large language model assisted heterogeneous-agent learning","authors":"Hao Zhang , Jiawen Dong , Nuo Lei , Yikun Qin , Bingbing Li , Chaoyi Chen , Boli Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138786","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138786","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the growing trend toward automation and decarbonization in heavy-duty transportation, ammonia–hydrogen hybrid electric vehicles (AHHEVs) equipped with autonomous driving capabilities are expected to play a significant role in long-haul freight applications. Although substantial progress has been made in the development of hardware propulsion systems, current AHHEVs generally lack advanced integrated energy-saving systems capable of coupled vehicle dynamics and powertrain control. To address this gap, this paper proposes a heterogeneous-agent reinforcement learning (HARL) framework for coupled optimization of velocity and energy management, where the large language models (LLM) serve as a high-level reasoning and coordination prior. Specifically, LLM-generated expert knowledge is leveraged to guide heterogeneous-agent policy initialization, constrain exploration within physically consistent and energy-efficient regions. Comprehensive tests demonstrate that this LLM-enhanced framework effectively reduces the sample complexity of reinforcement learning and accelerates convergence in dynamic driving scenarios, and the proposed method achieves more stable performance in terms of control accuracy, real-time response, and up to 2.6 % energy efficiency improvements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"338 ","pages":"Article 138786"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145271347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A framework for global sensitivity analysis in long-term energy systems planning using optimal transport 使用最优运输的长期能源系统规划的全局敏感性分析框架

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.138788

Matteo Nicoli , Emanuele Borgonovo , Valeria Di Cosmo , Daniele Mosso , Elmar Plischke , Laura Savoldi , Anderson Rodrigo de Queiroz

{"title":"A framework for global sensitivity analysis in long-term energy systems planning using optimal transport","authors":"Matteo Nicoli , Emanuele Borgonovo , Valeria Di Cosmo , Daniele Mosso , Elmar Plischke , Laura Savoldi , Anderson Rodrigo de Queiroz","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138788","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138788","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper introduces a framework for applying global parametric sensitivity analyses to energy system optimization models. The methodology presented is based on the optimal transport theory, enabling the identification of the most influential model inputs in shaping key outputs, such as energy mix composition, technology deployment, and system costs. The technique is applied to an instance for Italy within the Tools for Energy Model Optimization and Analysis energy planning tool. Algorithms devoted to managing inputs samplings, model runs and outputs postprocessing are developed and presented. Results are derived by exploring their dependency on the assumed energy scenarios and inputs variability. The findings of the paper show that demand levels and costs are the most influential inputs in business-as-usual scenarios, while techno-environmental constraints and efficiencies represent the most important inputs in decarbonization scenarios. Expanding input sampling ranges leads to the emergence of additional clusters of solutions, revealing alternative cost-optimal technology configurations and energy mixes that may not appear under narrower input variations. The proposed methodology helps in identifying parametrically the most impacting sources of uncertainty in energy planning and is openly available for future applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"338 ","pages":"Article 138788"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145270943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Research on the stability assessment method of bubbling fluidized bed sludge incineration system based on multi-source features 基于多源特性的鼓泡流化床污泥焚烧系统稳定性评价方法研究

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.138801

Song Luo , Jun Yu , Guojun Lv , Shuixing Zhu , Zhengchao Xie , Zhongming Zhang , Haibin Cui , Fei Wang

{"title":"Research on the stability assessment method of bubbling fluidized bed sludge incineration system based on multi-source features","authors":"Song Luo , Jun Yu , Guojun Lv , Shuixing Zhu , Zhengchao Xie , Zhongming Zhang , Haibin Cui , Fei Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138801","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138801","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Stable operation of incineration systems is crucial for ensuring safe production, controlling pollutant emissions, and improving energy efficiency. However, existing research primarily focuses on flame stability identification while neglecting other aspects of incineration systems, which makes it difficult to provide specific guidance for operational regulation. System stability encompasses not only combustion flame stability but also process parameter consistency across fuel feeding, air supply, temperature control, and emission management. This study investigates the stability of a bubbling fluidized bed sludge incinerator by integrating multi-source data from Distributed Control System (DCS), Continuous Emission Monitoring Systems (CEMS), and flame image features. First, temporal lag relationships between features are determined through mutual information analysis, enabling data reorganization. Second, the composite instability indices for each feature are defined, including three typical types: abrupt, trend, and boundary-exceeding instability indices. Then, the weights of each feature's composite instability index are determined through Principal Component Analysis (PCA), after which a weighted sum of these indices is calculated to obtain the weighted instability index at the current moment. Finally, the weighted instability index is scaled to the range of 0–1 based on Sigmoid function, resulting in the stability index of the incineration system for overall operational performance assessment. Through the comparative analysis of typical operating conditions, the effectiveness of this method is verified in dynamic response, anomaly identification and trend monitoring, which provides support for the stable operation and intelligent regulation of complex incineration processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"338 ","pages":"Article 138801"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145270704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Effective transport rate: A novel metric for quantitative evaluation of air-fuel mixing in diesel engines 有效输送率：定量评价柴油机空气燃料混合的新指标

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.138744

Weifan Che, Han Wu, Fengting Sun, Zhicheng Shi, Weihua Zhao, Xiangrong Li

{"title":"Effective transport rate: A novel metric for quantitative evaluation of air-fuel mixing in diesel engines","authors":"Weifan Che, Han Wu, Fengting Sun, Zhicheng Shi, Weihua Zhao, Xiangrong Li","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138744","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138744","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Air-fuel mixing exerts a decisive influence on combustion and emission characteristics. It is essential to understand the underlying mixing mechanisms and quantitatively analyze the mixing process. However, most existing studies quantify mixing using global statistical indicators, which are insufficient to achieve these objectives. Therefore, a new metric, termed the effective transport rate, is proposed, which is derived from mass transfer principles and based on the concept of effective transport (defined as the portion of fuel mass transport that alters the local equivalence ratio). The metric identifies the key physical fields governing the mixing process and clarifies the mechanisms by which they exert influence. An evaluation framework based on the effective transport rate is established and embedded into a CFD post-processing program, enabling spatially resolved analysis of the mixing rate and quantification of the respective contributions from diffusion and convection. Moreover, CFD simulations of a double-swirl combustion chamber are performed, in which the proposed evaluation framework is applied. It is found that the cumulative effective transport exhibits a strong correlation with the equivalence ratio standard deviation and combustion duration, validating the model. In the double-swirl configuration, high-speed mixing zones are guided by the chamber walls toward the center and liner, and subsequently toward the piston. Convective transport plays a dominant role in the overall mixing process. From the start of injection to near the end of combustion, the cumulative effective convective transport is 4.9 times that of the cumulative effective diffusion transport.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"338 ","pages":"Article 138744"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145271346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Hybrid symbolic regression for data-driven discovery: Governing dimensionless numbers in supercritical heat transfer 数据驱动发现的混合符号回归：超临界传热中无量纲数的控制

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.138752

Yunzhi Shi , Meiqi Song , Hongtao Bi , Wei Xu , Xiaojing Liu

{"title":"Hybrid symbolic regression for data-driven discovery: Governing dimensionless numbers in supercritical heat transfer","authors":"Yunzhi Shi , Meiqi Song , Hongtao Bi , Wei Xu , Xiaojing Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138752","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138752","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the increasing global demand for high-efficiency and low-emission energy systems, supercritical fluids have gained attention due to their superior thermal properties, thereby posing new challenges for accurate modeling of their complex heat transfer behavior. In this context, interpretable and generalizable models become essential, where scaling analysis helps reduce complexity and reveal governing mechanisms. This study proposes an original framework for automatic construction of dimensionless number systems, inspired by traditional dimensional analysis but extended via modern machine learning techniques. The core innovation lies in a hybrid symbolic regression neural network (HSRNN), which modularizes governing equations and embeds dimensional invariance into its architecture, enabling the generation of physically meaningful and compact base dimensionless numbers. To enhance clarity and robustness, dimensional optimization and expression refinement are performed. Using supercritical heat transfer as a case study, this work analyzes 1492 experimental data points under seven operating conditions. The base dimensionless groups are further interpreted using classical dimensional analysis and reduced via the active subspaces method, identifying key factors related to mass, momentum and energy conservation. The proposed framework integrates the strengths of physical modeling, symbolic regression, and deep learning, and is validated through a representative case of supercritical heat transfer, highlighting its applicability and potential for modeling complex physical systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"338 ","pages":"Article 138752"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145270805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Two-tier optimal scheduling of integrated energy systems in parks considering P2G-CCS-CHP coupling and electricity-gas-heat-cooling price-demand response 考虑P2G-CCS-CHP耦合和电-气-热-冷价格-需求响应的园区综合能源系统两层最优调度

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.138803

Ziren Wang , Wei Li , Yuyuan Zhang

{"title":"Two-tier optimal scheduling of integrated energy systems in parks considering P2G-CCS-CHP coupling and electricity-gas-heat-cooling price-demand response","authors":"Ziren Wang , Wei Li , Yuyuan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138803","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138803","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study proposes a two-level optimization framework for scheduling park integrated energy systems (PIES). The approach enhances coordination between energy supply and demand while addressing major issues such as weak source–load interactions, excessive carbon emissions, underutilization of wind and solar resources, severe grid peak–valley fluctuations caused by large-scale renewable integration, and inefficient system operation. The model incorporates wind and solar output uncertainty, couples power-to-gas (P2G), carbon capture and storage (CCS), and combined heat and power (CHP) units, and embeds price-based demand response to strengthen flexibility and economic efficiency. Key steps include generating/reducing typical daily wind-sun output situations via kernel density determination and Copula theory, analyzing impacts of wind-solar grid-connected power and integrated demand response on loads to propose source-load coordinated peak-shaving, establishing an electricity-gas-heat-cooling price-based demand response model to enhance price signal incentives, constructing a CHP model with P2G and CCS (weakening electro-thermal coupling, expanding electricity adjustment range, and reducing emissions), and improving the conventional stepped carbon quota trading strategy by introducing reward-penalty coefficients to form an enhanced reward-penalty stepped carbon trading model. The two-level model optimizes grid load curves (upper level) and PIES low-carbon economy (lower level), solved jointly via Gurobi and Improved Dung Beetle Optimization. A case study on a northern China comprehensive demonstration park verifies effectiveness: the model suppresses grid load fluctuation, achieves peak removing/valley filling, improves renewable energy absorption, and reduces PIES carbon emissions and total cost.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"338 ","pages":"Article 138803"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145271341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Life cycle assessment and SAW-Based ranking of renewable electricity and hydrogen production scenarios for sustainable residential architecture: A case study in kerman, Iran 可持续住宅建筑的可再生电力和氢气生产方案的生命周期评估和基于saw的排名：伊朗kerman的案例研究

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.138767

Mehdi Jahangiri

{"title":"Life cycle assessment and SAW-Based ranking of renewable electricity and hydrogen production scenarios for sustainable residential architecture: A case study in kerman, Iran","authors":"Mehdi Jahangiri","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138767","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138767","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing demand for sustainable energy and the need to reduce environmental pollutants highlight the importance of renewable resources. This study evaluates four scenarios for electricity and hydrogen production in a sustainable residential building in Kerman. Using HOMER software, life cycle assessment, and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) method, it comprehensively assesses economic and environmental indicators. The criteria include economic cost, water consumption, CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, and social cost of pollutants. Results show that the Photovoltaic panel (PV)-Grid-Reformer scenario has the lowest cost ($168,180), while the PV-Wind Turbine (WT)-Grid-Reformer-Electrolyzer scenario has nearly double the cost. Regarding water consumption, the WT-Grid-Reformer scenario records the lowest value at 22,444,474 L, with the fourth scenario consuming 8.2 % more. Environmentally, the PV-WT-Grid-Reformer scenario achieves the lowest CO<sub>2</sub> emissions (−1,420,200 kg), while the PV-WT-GridReformer-Electrolyzer scenario shows the highest (44,040 kg). The best and worst social costs are -$37,041 (PV-WT-Grid-Reformer scenario) and $1148 (PV-WT-GridReformer-Electrolyzer scenario), respectively. Sensitivity analysis and SAW ranking reveal that the first scenario is optimal in cost-centered conditions, whereas the third scenario ranks first when considering environmental concerns, balanced criteria, and water sensitivity. Overall, integrating solar and wind with a reformer appears ideal for minimizing pollutants and social costs, while the use of electrolyzers, due to their high cost and water demand, is less suitable for arid regions like Kerman. Additionally, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis with 5000 iterations confirmed the robustness of the SAW-based ranking, showing that the PV–WT–Grid–Reformer scenario ranked first in over 74.5 % of cases, highlighting its consistent superiority across varying decision-making preferences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"338 ","pages":"Article 138767"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145270941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Firms’ green technology investment and production strategies under carbon tax uncertainty with heterogeneous adjustment flexibility 碳税不确定性下企业绿色技术投资与生产策略的异质性调整弹性

IF 9.4 1区工程技术

Energy Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.138300

Tongyuan Shen , Manyi Wang , Yujie Zhu

{"title":"Firms’ green technology investment and production strategies under carbon tax uncertainty with heterogeneous adjustment flexibility","authors":"Tongyuan Shen , Manyi Wang , Yujie Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138300","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.energy.2025.138300","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how uncertainty in carbon tax policy implementation interacts with firms’ flexibility in adjusting green technology investments to shape market equilibrium, social welfare, and environmental outcomes. We develop a Cournot duopoly model in which two profit-maximizing firms compete in quantities, invest in emission-reducing technologies, and face a carbon tax that may or may not be enacted with known probability. We compare two cases — flexible and inflexible investment adjustment — depending on whether firms determine their investment decisions after or before the policy realization. We identify two central mechanisms: the investment enhancement effect and the production expansion effect. Together, these effects lead to lower expected profits but higher expected consumer surplus in the flexible investment adjustment case. Furthermore, we show that the comparison of expected tax revenue and social welfare across the two cases depends critically on the carbon tax rate. Our findings provide theoretical insights into how the interaction between policy uncertainty and operational flexibility shapes strategic firm behavior and determines the effectiveness of carbon tax policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11647,"journal":{"name":"Energy","volume":"338 ","pages":"Article 138300"},"PeriodicalIF":9.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145271294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

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