Climatic Change最新文献

{"title":"Managing the water-energy-food nexus in the adige river basin: impacts of climate and land use change on ecosystem services bundles.","authors":"Beatrice Sambo, Anna Sperotto, Celina Aznarez, Stefano Terzi, Massimiliano Pittore, Andrea Critto, Silvia Torresan","doi":"10.1007/s10584-025-04013-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10584-025-04013-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus framework highlights the interdependencies among water, energy, and food systems. Integrating Ecosystem Services (ESs) enhances this approach by incorporating ecological benefits for more holistic assessments. This study applies a spatially explicit ESs-based WEF nexus analysis in the Adige River Basin (Northern Italy), focusing on five ESs: water provisioning, crop yield, sediment retention, carbon storage, and landscape diversity, under two future scenarios (SSP1-RCP 2.6 and SSP5-RCP 8.5) from 2018 to 2050. Using Self-Organizing Maps, sub-basins were clustered into ESs bundles enabling the identification of tailored management strategies. Results reveal spatial heterogeneity and shifts in ESs bundles, with synergies often found in upstream, forested areas. Under high-emission scenarios, regulating services decline and provisioning services face trade-offs, especially with intensified agriculture. Key strategies suggested include maintaining environmental flows, reducing synthetic fertilizers, promoting reforestation, crop diversification, and expanding protected areas. These are structured into physical, economic, and climatic pathways aligned with EU restoration goals. Findings demonstrate the value of an ESs-bundles approach for optimizing synergies and managing trade-offs across the WEF nexus.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-04013-3.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"178 9","pages":"168"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12426146/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145063490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future.","authors":"Samantha Basile, Allison Crimmins, Fredric Lipschultz, Kenneth E Kunkel, Kate Marvel, Adam Terando, Claudia Tebaldi, David Pierce, Wenying Su, L Ruby Leung, Katharine Hayhoe","doi":"10.1007/s10584-025-03888-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03888-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climate assessments consolidate our understanding of possible future climate conditions as represented by climate projections, which are largely based on the output of global climate models. Over the past 30 years, the scientific insights gained from climate projections have been refined through model structural improvements, emerging constraints on climate feedbacks, and increased computational efficiency. Within the same period, the process of assessing and evaluating information from climate projections has become more defined and targeted to inform users. As the size and audience of climate assessments has expanded, the framing, relevancy, and accessibility of projections has become increasingly important. This paper reviews the use of climate projections in national climate assessments (NCA) while highlighting challenges and opportunities that have been identified over time. Reflections and lessons learned address the continuous process to understand the broadening assessment audience and evolving user needs. Insights for future NCA development include (1) identifying benchmarks and standards for evaluating downscaled datasets, (2) expanding efforts to gather research gaps and user needs to inform how climate projections are presented in the assessment (3) providing practitioner guidance on the use, interpretation, and reporting of climate projections and uncertainty to better inform decision-making.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"178 4","pages":"84"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12000164/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143979003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental impacts from the widespread implementation of ocean thermal energy conversion.","authors":"Anna G Nickoloff, Sophia T Olim, Michael Eby, Andrew J Weaver","doi":"10.1007/s10584-025-03944-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10584-025-03944-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is a renewable energy system that could potentially displace significant amounts of fossil fuel-generated electricity. This study presents numerous multi-century simulations of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, a coupled climate-carbon cycle model, to better understand the global-scale environmental impacts of the widespread implementation of OTEC at varying total power levels (3, 5, 7, 10, and 15 TW). Environmental impacts include reduced warming of the sea surface by up to 3.1 ºC, increased heat uptake at intermediate depths, and enhanced biological production compared to a fossil fuel intensive control scenario. At year 2100, OTEC-induced mixing contributes roughly 60% of the relative cooling, while the remainder is from OTEC-related emission reductions. Once OTEC is terminated, all relative cooling is caused by accumulated emissions reductions. If acting alone, the residual effect of OTEC-induced mixing would contribute to a minor relative warming of the sea surface. The effect of OTEC on the expansion of known oxygen minimum zones was minimal. In many circumstances, OTEC deployment opposes the projected impacts of climate change. Relative to a high carbon emissions control scenario, OTEC deployment is associated with less surface warming, a smaller increase in surface water pCO₂, a suppression of ocean acidification, and significantly smaller declines in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Despite the potential engineering challenges and economic costs, early indications suggest that the large-scale implementation of OTEC could make a substantial contribution to climate change mitigation.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"178 5","pages":"102"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12064605/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143970924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Natural resource management and green technological innovation impact on health risks and social development: Evidence from advanced economies","authors":"Shuai Wang, Nabila Abid, Fayyaz Ahmad, Aamir Javed","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03795-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03795-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In light of the far-reaching consequences of ineffective natural resource management, an expanding body of scholarly investigation has emphasized environmental and economic repercussions while largely overlooking the implications for public health and social development. The present research fills this gap by investigating the influence of green technological innovation and natural resource management on health risks and social development in eleven leading industrial economies. The analysis employs extensive second-generation econometrics techniques on data framework from 1990 to 2019, controlling for variables such as gross domestic product, economic complexity, fossil fuel consumption, and foreign direct investment. The results of the CS-ARDL model indicate that green technological innovations significantly reduce health risks in both the short and long run while also improving social development. Conversely, resource management increases health risks but also contributes to social development in underlying countries. Economic complexity initially increases health risks in the short run but eventually improves in the long run. Additionally, gross domestic product positively affects social development but imposes health risks in the long run. Robustness checks, specifically the AMG test, confirm the results’ consistency and reliability. The findings emphasize the importance of implementing appropriate resource policy measures to effectively reduce health risks through responsible resource management practices and the widespread diffusion of green technology.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142254238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Green industrial policy for climate action in the basic materials industry","authors":"Åsa Löfgren, Lassi Ahlvik, Inge van den Bijgaart, Jessica Coria, Jūratė Jaraitė, Filip Johnsson, Johan Rootzén","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03801-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03801-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Historically, the basic materials industry has had relatively low R&amp;D expenditure levels, raising concerns about meeting 2050 climate targets given the crucial need for innovation and technology advancement in this industry. Decisive government intervention and active support for key technological pathways are required to address significant market failures and catalyse industrial decarbonisation. This Essay lays out the economic justification for an active green industrial policy and proposes key policy design principles, with the aim of striking a balance between facilitating the green industrial transition and maintaining cost efficiency in meeting climate targets.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Raising the bar: What determines the ambition level of corporate climate targets?","authors":"Clara Privato, Matthew P. Johnson, Timo Busch","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03783-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03783-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Since the launch of the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), we have witnessed a steady increase in the number of companies committing to climate targets for large-scale reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While recent studies present various methodologies for establishing climate targets (e.g., sectoral decarbonization approach, near-term, long-term, net zero), we still don’t understand the explanatory factors determining the level of ambition companies demonstrate in target setting. In this paper, a two-stage qualitative study is conducted with a sample of 22 companies from five countries. First, these companies’ publicly disclosed climate targets are evaluated according to four target ambition criteria: target type, scope, timeframe, and temperature alignment. Secondly, multiple explanatory factors for target setting were identified during the content analysis of the interviews to see how present these factors appear in the ambition levels. Within companies with highly ambitious climate targets, the findings indicate that certain factors are highly present, including leadership engagement, continual management support, employee involvement, participation in climate initiatives, and stakeholder collaboration. Conversely, none of these key factors are highly present in companies with less ambitious climate targets. Rather, these companies strongly identify the initiating factors of market-related pressures and non-market stakeholder influence as being the driving forces behind their target setting. This paper contributes to the literature on corporate responses to climate change by expanding our understanding of explanatory factors for different corporate climate target ambition levels.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Amplification of compound hot-dry extremes and associated population exposure over East Africa","authors":"Brian Odhiambo Ayugi, Charles Onyutha, Kenny Thiam Choy Lim Kam Sian, Huanhuan Zhu, Hassen Babousmail, Eun-Sung Chung","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03802-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03802-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Quantifying the vulnerability of population to multi-faceted climate change impacts on human well-being remains an urgent task. Recently, weather and climate extremes have evolved into bivariate events that heighten climate risks in unexpected ways. To investigate the potential impacts of climate extremes, this study analyzes the frequency, magnitude, and severity of observed and future compound hot-dry extremes (CHDEs) over East Africa. The CHDE events were computed from the observed precipitation and maximum temperature data of the Climatic Research Unit gridded Timeseries version five (CRU TS4.05) and outputs of climate models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, this study quantifies the population exposure to CHDE events based on future population density datasets under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Using the 75th/90th and 25th/10th percentile of precipitation and temperature as threshold to define severe and moderate events, the results show that the East African region experienced multiple moderate and severe CHDE events during the last twenty years. Based on a weighted multi-model ensemble, projections indicate that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the frequency of moderate CHDE will double, and severe CHDE will be 1.6 times that of baseline (i.e., an increase of 60%). Strong evidence of an upward trajectory is noted after 2080 for both moderate and severe CHDE. Southern parts of Tanzania and northeastern Kenya are likely to be the most affected, with all models agreeing (signal-to-noise ratio, SNR &gt; 1), indicating a likely higher magnitude of change during the mid- and far-future. Consequentially, population exposure to these impacts is projected to increase by up to 60% for moderate and severe CHDEs in parts of southern Tanzania. Attribution analysis highlights that climate change is the primary driver of CHDE exposure under the two emission pathways. The current study underscores the urgent need to reduce CO₂ emissions to prevent exceeding global warming thresholds and to develop regional adaptation measures.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"168 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A 561-yr (1461-2022 CE) summer temperature reconstruction for Mid-Atlantic-Northeast USA shows connections to volcanic forcing and atmospheric circulation","authors":"Grant L. Harley, Justin T. Maxwell, Karen E. King, Shelly A. Rayback, Edward R. Cook, Christopher Hansen, R. Stockton Maxwell, Frederick Reinig, Jan Esper, Tsun Fung Au, Ellen V. Bergan, Katherine E. Brings, Nick Koenig, Benjamin Lockwood, Richard D. Thaxton","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03798-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03798-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Contextualizing current increases in Northern Hemisphere temperatures is precluded by the short instrumental record of the past <i>ca.</i> 120 years and the dearth of temperature-sensitive proxy records, particularly at lower latitudes south of &lt;50 °N. We develop a network of 29 blue intensity chronologies derived from tree rings of <i>Tsuga canadensis</i> (L.) Carrière and <i>Picea rubens</i> Sarg. trees distributed across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast USA (MANE)—a region underrepresented by multi-centennial temperature records. We use this network to reconstruct mean March-September air temperatures back to 1461 CE based on a model that explains 62% of the instrumental temperature variance from 1901−1976 CE. Since 1998 CE, MANE summer temperatures are consistently the warmest within the context of the past 561 years exceeding the 1951−1980 mean of +1.3 °C. Cool summers across MANE were frequently volcanically forced, with significant (<i>p</i>&lt;0.05) temperature departures associated with 80% of the largest tropical (<i>n</i>=13) and extratropical (<i>n</i>=15) eruptions since 1461 CE. Yet, we find that more of the identified cool events in the record were likely unforced by volcanism and either related to stochastic variability or atmospheric circulation via significant associations (<i>p</i>&lt;0.05) to regional, coastal sea-surface temperatures, 500-hpa geopotential height, and 300-hpa meridional and zonal wind vectors. Expanding the MANE network to the west and south and combining it with existing temperature-sensitive proxies across North America is an important next step toward producing a gridded temperature reconstruction field for North America.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Might I have to move due to climate change? The role of exposure to risk and political partisanship in anticipation of future relocation","authors":"Lindy Williams, David Kay","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03785-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03785-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Recently, the body of research that assesses belief in climate change has grown, as has the number of studies appraising how experience with the impacts of climate change might affect public opinion. However, less research has addressed the question of whether/how people believe climate change will manifest itself in their own lives, or how it might affect behavioral responses more generally. Using two rounds of national survey data from 2016 and 2020, we examine the associations between climate risk, political party affiliation, and one potential planned adaptation behavior, relocation. Our results suggest that both exposure to risk and political identification help shape respondents’ beliefs. Several measures of risk are associated with respondents’ reports that weather/climate might cause them to move in the future and there is evidence to suggest that their awareness of risk may have increased between the two surveys. Regarding political affiliation, we find in one set of analyses that Republicans interviewed in 2020 were less likely than other political subgroups, including Republicans interviewed in 2016, to say weather/climate could have a potentially strong influence on future relocation decisions. We also find strong effects of age in one set of analyses, where younger respondents were much more likely than those at middle or older ages to report that weather/climate could exert a strong to moderate influence on a future move.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"87 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Monitoring soil carbon in smallholder carbon projects: insights from Kenya","authors":"Adaugo O. Okoli, Athena Birkenberg","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03796-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03796-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Voluntary carbon market schemes facilitate funding for projects promoting sustainable land management practices to sequester carbon in natural sinks such as biomass and soil, while also supporting agricultural production. The effectiveness of VCM schemes relies on accurate measurement mechanisms that can directly attribute carbon accumulation to project activities. However, measuring carbon sequestration in soils has proven to be difficult and costly, especially in fragmented smallholdings predominant in global agriculture. The cost and accuracy limitations of current methods to monitor soil organic carbon (SOC) limit the participation of smallholder farmers in global carbon markets, where they could potentially be compensated for adopting sustainable farming practices that provide ecosystem benefits. This study evaluates nine different approaches for SOC accounting in smallholder agricultural projects. The approaches involve the use of proximal and remote sensing, along with process models. Our evaluation centres on stakeholder requirements for the Measurement, Reporting, and Verification system, using the criteria of accuracy, level of standardisation, costs, adoptability, and the advancement of community benefits. By analysing these criteria, we highlight opportunities and challenges associated with each approach, presenting suggestions to enhance their applicability for smallholder SOC accounting. The contextual foundation of the research is a case study on the Western Kenya Soil Carbon Project. Remote sensing shows promise in reducing costs for direct and modelling-based carbon measurement. While it is already being used in certain carbon market applications, transparency is vital for broader integration. This demands collaborative work and investment in infrastructure like spectral libraries and user-friendly tools. Balancing community benefits against the detached nature of remote techniques is essential. Enhancing information access aids farmers, boosting income through improved soil and crop productivity, even with remote monitoring. Handheld sensors can involve smallholders, given consistent protocols. Engaging the community in monitoring can cut project costs, enhance agricultural capabilities, and generate extra income.\u0000</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}