Climatic Change最新文献_第10页

Banking deregulation and consumption of home durables 放松银行管制与耐用消费品消费

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03692-8

Evren Damar, Ian Lange, Caitlin McKennie, Mirko Moro

引用次数: 0

Orchestrating the climate choir: the boundaries of scientists’ expertise, the relevance of experiential knowledge, and quality assurance in the public climate debate 编排气候合唱团：科学家专业知识的界限、经验知识的相关性以及公开气候辩论中的质量保证

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-02-21 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03697-3

Peter Busch Nicolaisen

{"title":"Orchestrating the climate choir: the boundaries of scientists’ expertise, the relevance of experiential knowledge, and quality assurance in the public climate debate","authors":"Peter Busch Nicolaisen","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03697-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03697-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Scientific knowledge is at the heart of discussions about climate change. However, it has been proposed that the apparent predominance of climate science in the societal debate should be reconsidered and that a more inclusive approach is warranted. Further, the introduction of new communication technology has made the information environment more fragmented, possibly endangering the quality of societal deliberation on climate change concerns. Using focus group methodology, this paper explores how climate scientists, climate journalists, and citizens perceive scientific experts’ mandate when they communicate publicly, the role of experiential knowledge in discussions of climate-related issues, and who the three actors prefer to guard the quality of the climate information exchanged in the public sphere. The findings show that scientific experts are perceived to carry a high degree of legitimacy, but only within their own narrow specialty, while experiential knowledge was seen as more useful in applied domains of science than in arcane research fields. In the new media landscape, journalists are still generally preferred as gatekeepers by all three actor types.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139924367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A warm-season drought reconstruction in central-northern Pakistan inferred from tree rings since 1670 CE and its possible climatic mechanism 根据西元 1670 年以来的树木年轮推断的巴基斯坦中北部暖季干旱重建及其可能的气候机制

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03688-4

Adam Khan, Feng Chen, Heli Zhang, Sidra Saleem, Hamada E. Ali, Weipeng Yue, Martín Hadad

{"title":"A warm-season drought reconstruction in central-northern Pakistan inferred from tree rings since 1670 CE and its possible climatic mechanism","authors":"Adam Khan, Feng Chen, Heli Zhang, Sidra Saleem, Hamada E. Ali, Weipeng Yue, Martín Hadad","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03688-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03688-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding past warm-season drought variability and its underlying climatic mechanisms is crucial for effective drought management and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, we develop a regional chronology (RC) spanning from 1620 to 2017 CE by utilizing dendrochronological techniques and tree-ring data from two stands of <i>Abies pindrow.</i> The RC reveals a significant positive correlation (<i>p</i> < 0.05) with self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) and precipitation and a significant negative correlation with temperature. We use a simple linear regression model between RC and climate data to reconstruct a 348-year-long (1670–2017 CE) warm-season (April-July) drought variability from central-northern Pakistan. The reconstructed scPDSI reveals a 44% variance of the scPDSI during the common calibrated period 1950–2017 CE. Spatial correlation shows a positive field correlation with central-northern Pakistan, extending predominantly to neighboring regions. MTM (multi-taper method) spectral analysis reveals inter-annual cycles (6.8, 3.2, 2.7, 2.5, and 2.3 years) and multi-decadal cycles (11.7, 15.2, 16.2, 17.9, and 128 years). The internal-annual cycles demonstrate a possible linkage between reconstructed scPDSI and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The reconstructed scPDSI agrees well with the moisture-sensitive tree-ring records from northern Pakistan and neighboring regions. Our reconstruction shows a significant correlation with the South Asia Summer Monsoon Index (SASMI), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), ENSO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and solar activity, emphasizing that all these factors have some influence on the drought variability in central-northern Pakistan. This study has important implications for disaster management and proactive measures for mitigating the impact of drought on both natural ecosystems and human populations in central-northern Pakistan and associated regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139759596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

There is no word for ‘nature’ in our language: rethinking nature-based solutions from the perspective of Indigenous Peoples located in Canada 我们的语言中没有'自然'一词：从加拿大土著居民的角度重新思考基于自然的解决方案

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-02-14 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03682-w

Graeme Reed, Nicolas D. Brunet, Deborah McGregor, Curtis Scurr, Tonio Sadik, Jamie Lavigne, Sheri Longboat

{"title":"There is no word for ‘nature’ in our language: rethinking nature-based solutions from the perspective of Indigenous Peoples located in Canada","authors":"Graeme Reed, Nicolas D. Brunet, Deborah McGregor, Curtis Scurr, Tonio Sadik, Jamie Lavigne, Sheri Longboat","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03682-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03682-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Support for nature-based solutions (NbS) has grown significantly in the last 5 years. At the same time, recognition for the role of Indigenous Peoples in advancing ‘life-enhancing’ climate solutions has also increased. Despite this rapid growth, the exploration of the intersection of NbS and Indigenous Peoples has been much slower, as questions remain about the ability of NbS to be implemented while respecting Indigenous rights, governance, and knowledge systems, including in their conceptualizations. To address this knowledge gap, we draw on 17 conversational interviews with Indigenous leaders, including youth, women, technicians, and knowledge keepers from what is currently known as Canada to explore Indigenous conceptualizations of nature, nature-based solutions, and the joint biodiversity and climate crisis. Three drivers of the biodiversity and climate crisis were identified: structural legacy of colonization and capitalism, a problem of human values, and climate change as a cumulative impact from industrial disturbances. Building on this understanding, our findings indicate that shifting towards Indigenous conceptualizations of NbS as systems of reciprocal relationships would: challenge the dichotomization of humans and nature; emphasize the inseparability of land, water, and identity; internalize the principle of humility and responsibility; and invest in the revitalization of Indigenous knowledge systems. As the first exploration of Indigenous conceptualizations of nature within NbS literatures, we close with four reflections for academics, advocates, leaders, activists, and policymakers to uplift Indigenous climate solutions for a just, equitable, and resilient future.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"97 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139759401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analysis, evaluation and implications of Rhode Island’s “2021 Act on Climate” for response to climate change 分析、评估罗德岛州 "2021 年气候法案 "对应对气候变化的影响

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-02-13 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03680-y

{"title":"Analysis, evaluation and implications of Rhode Island’s “2021 Act on Climate” for response to climate change","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03680-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03680-y","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>The state of Rhode Island is responding appropriately to the climate crisis by enacting “the Resilient Rhode Island Act of 2014” and then preparing the revised “2021 Act on Climate.” Accordingly, Rhode Island strives to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 by establishing and evaluating a climate change response plan and setting science-based climate goals through the Executive Climate Change Coordinating Council through consultation with the Advisory Board and the Science and Technical Advisory Board. Additionally, Rhode Island is committed to establishing industry support strategies to respond to climate change, considering future generations, including children, in the impacts of climate change, utilizing the knowledge of private experts at universities, and promoting public education on climate change response. However, matters that need to be supplemented and improved in the implementation of Rhode Island’s climate change-related legal policies include the fair and transparent selection of advisors from an organizational perspective and the securing of dedicated personnel and budget for practical work.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139759877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impacts of natural and anthropogenic forcings on historical and future changes in global-land surface air temperature in CMIP6–DAMIP simulations CMIP6-DAMIP 模拟中自然和人为作用力对全球陆地表面气温历史和未来变化的影响

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-02-12 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03686-6

{"title":"Impacts of natural and anthropogenic forcings on historical and future changes in global-land surface air temperature in CMIP6–DAMIP simulations","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03686-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03686-6","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>To better understand the contributions of various external factors to past and future changes in global and regional climate, this study investigates the impacts of natural and anthropogenic forcings on historical and future changes in global land surface air temperature (GLSAT) using model simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Results show that the anthropogenic forcing (ANT) can be robustly detected and separated from the response to the natural external forcing (NAT) since the 1970s. The observed warming changes since the 1950s are primarily attributed to the GHG forcing. ANT contributes a robust warming trend of 0.1–0.2 °C per decade for global landmass during 1951–2020 and cumulative warming by 2011–2020 (relative to 1901–1930) of 1.0–1.6 °C. These attributable warmings largely encompass the observed warming trend of ~ 0.18 °C per decade in 1951–2012 and the observed warming of 1.59 °C by 2011–2020 (relative to 1850–1900) for global landmass reported in IPCC AR5 and AR6, respectively. The anthropogenic warming is projected to increase by 3–6 °C for most global landmass under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, especially in the high latitudes Northern Hemisphere by the late twenty-first century, along with an increase in the mean and widespread flattening of the probability distribution functions (PDFs). The anthropogenic aerosol (AA) cooling effect is projected to decrease only modestly, from 0.7 °C in 2011-20 to 0.6 °C by the late 21st century, for the SSP2-4.5 scenario.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"53 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139759600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Perceived naturalness predicts public support for sustainable protein technology 自然感知预示着公众对可持续蛋白质技术的支持

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-02-07 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03679-5

{"title":"Perceived naturalness predicts public support for sustainable protein technology","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03679-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03679-5","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>The widespread demand for animal-sourced foods poses challenges in addressing climate change due to their significant greenhouse gas emissions. Alternative proteins like cultured meat show promise with lower greenhouse gas emissions, but have faced public resistance, posing substantial barriers to their broad development and adoption. This paper reports a survey that examined the perceived naturalness of protein sources as an important factor that predicts perceived risks, benefits, and support for consumption. A diverse sample from the United States considered six different protein technologies, including three newer alternative proteins such as cultured meat and three more conventional proteins. Newer alternative proteins were perceived as less natural and were less supported than conventional proteins. Additionally, the more participants perceived protein sources as natural, the less risky and more beneficial they perceived them to be, contributing to their support. These results suggest that perceived naturalness, and associated risks and benefits, could be an important factor in shaping public support for or opposition to new proteins. These findings have theoretical and broader implications for the development and adoption of sustainability technologies.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"109 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139759491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Variation in fire danger in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region over the past 30 years and its linkage with atmospheric circulation 京津冀地区近 30 年来的火险变化及其与大气环流的关系

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03689-3

{"title":"Variation in fire danger in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region over the past 30 years and its linkage with atmospheric circulation","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03689-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03689-3","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>It is crucial to investigate the characteristics of fire danger in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region to improve the accuracy of local fire danger monitoring, forecasting, and management. With the use of instrumental observation data from 173 national meteorological stations in the BTH region from 1991 to 2020, the fire weather index (FWI) is first calculated in this study, and its spatiotemporal characteristics are analyzed. The high- and low-fire danger periods based on the FWI occur in April and August, respectively, with significant decreasing and increasing trends throughout the BTH region over the past 30 years. Next, the contributions of different meteorological factors to the FWI are quantified via a detrending technique. Most regions are affected by precipitation during the high-fire danger period. Both the maximum surface air temperature (Tmax) and precipitation, however, notably contribute to the FWI trend changes during the low-fire danger period. Then, we assess the linkage with atmospheric circulation. Abundant water vapor from the Northwest Pacific and local upward motion jointly lead to increased precipitation and, as a consequence, a decreased FWI during the high-fire danger period. A lack of water vapor from the boreal zone and local downward movement could cause adiabatic subsidence and hence, amplify the temperature and FWI during the low-fire danger period. In contrast to shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 585, in which the FWI in the BTH region exhibits a north–south dipole during the low-fire danger period, SSP245 yields an east–west dipole during the low-fire danger period. This study reveals that there is a higher-than-expected probability of fire danger during the low-fire danger period. Therefore, it is essential to intensify research on the fire danger during the low-fire danger period to improve our ability to predict summer fire danger.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"109 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139759883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A stakeholder-guided marine heatwave hazard index for fisheries and aquaculture 利益相关者指导下的渔业和水产养殖业海洋热浪危害指数

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03684-8

{"title":"A stakeholder-guided marine heatwave hazard index for fisheries and aquaculture","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03684-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03684-8","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>Marine heatwaves pose an increasing threat to fisheries and aquaculture around the world under climate change. However, the threat has not been estimated for the coming decades in a form that meets the needs of these industries. Tasmanian fisheries and aquaculture in southeast Australia have been severely impacted by marine heatwaves in recent years, especially the oyster, abalone, and salmon industries. In a series of semi-structured interviews with key Tasmanian fishery and aquaculture stakeholders, information was gathered about the following: (i) the impacts they have experienced to date from marine heatwaves, (ii) their planning for future marine heatwaves, and (iii) the information that would be most useful to aid planning. Using CMIP6 historical and future simulations of sea surface temperatures around Tasmania, we developed a marine heatwave hazard index guided by these stakeholder conversations. The region experienced a severe marine heatwave during the austral summer of 2015/16, which has been used here as a reference point to define the index. Our marine heatwave hazard index shows that conditions like those experienced in 2015/16 are projected to occur approximately 1-in-5 years by the 2050s under a low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) or 1-in-2 years under a high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Increased frequency of marine heatwaves will likely reduce productivity by both direct (mortality) and in-direct (ecosystem change, greater incidence of disease) impacts on target species. The illustrative hazard index is one step towards a marine heatwave risk index, which would also need to consider aspects of exposure and vulnerability to be of greater utility to stakeholders.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139759497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Perceptions of environmental changes among a climate-vulnerable population from Bangladesh 孟加拉国易受气候影响人群对环境变化的看法

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03678-6

Jan Freihardt

{"title":"Perceptions of environmental changes among a climate-vulnerable population from Bangladesh","authors":"Jan Freihardt","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03678-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03678-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Effective climate change adaptation requires a thorough understanding of whether and how affected populations perceive climatic and environmental changes. Existing research has been inconclusive regarding the consistency of these perceptions compared to objective meteorological indicators. Moreover, no systematic comparison has been done for the perception of discrete environmental events such as floods or erosion. This study relies on novel panel survey data of approximately 1700 households residing along the Jamuna River in Bangladesh as well as on unique individual-level, satellite-based erosion data. It compares respondents’ perceptions of environmental events, namely riverbank erosion, and three climate change indicators, specifically long-term temperature change and changes in precipitation during wet and dry seasons, to objective measurements using satellite imagery and climatic time-series data (CRU TS). I find that long-term temperature change is perceived more accurately than long-term changes in precipitation. Given that educational attainment and climate change literacy among the study population are low, this indicates that global temperature increases are felt even by remote populations who have never heard the term climate change. Erosion is strongly overestimated, especially by those respondents who had been personally affected by it. Since human behavior is guided by perceptions rather than objective data, this has important policy implications, underlining the importance of considering people’s perceptions if the goal is to assist them in adapting to environmental changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"24 4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139663652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0