Climatic Change最新文献

Endorsement of scientific inquiry promotes better evaluation of climate policy evidence. 对科学调查的认可促进了对气候政策证据的更好评估。

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2023-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-05-19 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03535-y

Jessica E Hughes, James D Sauer, Aaron Drummond, Laura E Brumby, Matthew A Palmer

{"title":"Endorsement of scientific inquiry promotes better evaluation of climate policy evidence.","authors":"Jessica E Hughes, James D Sauer, Aaron Drummond, Laura E Brumby, Matthew A Palmer","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03535-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10584-023-03535-y","url":null,"abstract":"Public and scientific consensus about climate change do not align. Problematically, higher scientific knowledge has been associated with lower acceptance of climate information among those with more conservative socio-political ideologies. Positive attitudes towards science can attenuate this effect. We investigated the association between endorsement of scientific inquiry (ESI) and decision-making with scientific evidence about climate policies. Participants rated support for 16 climate policies accompanied by weaker or stronger evidence. In study 1 (N = 503), higher ESI was associated with greater discernment between strongly and weakly evidenced climate policies, irrespective of worldview. In studies 2 (N = 402) and 3 (N = 600), an ESI intervention improved discrimination, and, in study 3, increased ESI specifically for hierarchical/individualistic participants. Unlike ESI, the link between scientific knowledge and evaluation of evidence was influenced by worldview. Increasing ESI might improve the evaluation of scientific evidence and increase public support for evidence-based climate policies.Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-023-03535-y.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"176 6","pages":"69"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10197046/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9917527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Research needs for a food system transition. 粮食系统转型的研究需求。

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2023-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-04-05 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03507-2

Sonali Shukla McDermid, Matthew Hayek, Dale W Jamieson, Galina Hale, David Kanter

{"title":"Research needs for a food system transition.","authors":"Sonali Shukla McDermid, Matthew Hayek, Dale W Jamieson, Galina Hale, David Kanter","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03507-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10584-023-03507-2","url":null,"abstract":"The global food system, and animal agriculture in particular, is a major and growing contributor to climate change, land system change, biodiversity loss, water consumption and contamination, and environmental pollution. The copious production and consumption of animal products are also contributing to increasingly negative public health outcomes, particularly in wealthy and rapidly industrializing countries, and result in the slaughter of trillions of animals each year. These impacts are motivating calls for reduced reliance on animal-based products and increased use of replacement plant-based products. However, our understanding of how the production and consumption of animal products, as well as plant-based alternatives, interact with important dimensions of human and environment systems is incomplete across space and time. This inhibits comprehensively envisioning global and regional food system transitions and planning to manage the costs and synergies thereof. We therefore propose a cross-disciplinary research agenda on future target-based scenarios for food system transformation that has at its core three main activities: (1) data collection and analysis at the intersection of animal agriculture, the environment, and societal well-being, (2) the construction of target-based scenarios for animal products informed by these new data and empirical understandings, and (3) the evaluation of impacts, unintended consequences, co-benefits, and trade-offs of these target-based scenarios to help inform decision-making.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"176 4","pages":"41"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10074344/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9273551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion. 评估由气候变化和农田入侵决定的陆地生态系统未来全球分布。

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2023-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-07-28 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03584-3

Richard D Robertson, Alessandro De Pinto, Nicola Cenacchi

{"title":"Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion.","authors":"Richard D Robertson, Alessandro De Pinto, Nicola Cenacchi","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03584-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10584-023-03584-3","url":null,"abstract":"The geographic distribution of natural ecosystems is affected by both climate and cropland. Discussions of future land use/land cover usually focus on how cropland expands and displaces natural vegetation especially as climate change impacts become stronger. Less commonly considered is the direct influence of climate change on natural ecosystems simultaneously with cropland incursion. We combine a natural vegetation model responsive to climate with a cropland allocation algorithm to assess the relative importance of climate change compared to cropland incursion. Globally, the model indicates that climate change drives larger gains and losses than cropland incursion. For example, in the Amazonian rainforests, more than one sixth of the forest area could be lost due to climate change with cropland playing virtually no role. Our findings suggest that policies to protect specific ecosystems may be undercut by climate change and that localized analyses that fully account for the impacts of a changing climate on natural vegetation and agriculture are necessary to formulate policies that preserve natural ecosystems over the long term.Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-023-03584-3.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"176 8","pages":"108"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10382346/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10284799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

New insights into projected Arctic sea road: operational risks, economic values, and policy implications. 预测北极海路的新见解:运营风险、经济价值和政策影响。

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03505-4

Xueke Li, Amanda H Lynch

{"title":"New insights into projected Arctic sea road: operational risks, economic values, and policy implications.","authors":"Xueke Li, Amanda H Lynch","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03505-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03505-4","url":null,"abstract":"As Arctic sea ice continues to retreat, the seasonally navigable Arctic expected by mid-century or earlier is likely to facilitate the growth of polar maritime and coastal development. Here, we systematically explore the potentials for opening of trans-Arctic sea routes across a range of emissions futures and multi-model ensembles on daily timescales. We find a new Transpolar Sea Route in the western Arctic for open water vessels starting in 2045 in addition to the central Arctic corridor over the North Pole, with its frequency comparable to the latter during the 2070s under the worst-case scenario. The emergence of this new western route could be decisive for operational and strategic outcomes. Specifically, the route redistributes transits away from the Russian-administered Northern Sea Route, lowering the navigational and financial risks and the regulatory friction. Navigational risks arise from narrow straits that are often icy choke points. Financial risks arise from the substantial interannual sea ice variability and associated uncertainty. Regulatory friction arises from Russian requirements imposed under the Polar Code and Article 234 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. These imposts are significantly reduced with shipping route regimes that enable open water transits wholly outside Russian territorial waters, and these regimes are revealed most accurately using daily ice information. The near-term navigability transition period (2025-2045) may offer an opportunity for maritime policy evaluation, revision, and action. Our user-inspired evaluation contributes towards achieving operational, economic and geopolitical objectives and serves the goal of planning a resilient, sustainable, and adaptive Arctic future.Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-023-03505-4.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"176 4","pages":"30"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10026796/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9192184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Green politics beyond the state: radicalizing the democratic potentials of climate citizens' assemblies. 州外的绿色政治：激发气候公民大会的民主潜力。

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2023-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-05-30 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03550-z

Mads Ejsing, Adam Veng, Irina Papazu

{"title":"Green politics beyond the state: radicalizing the democratic potentials of climate citizens' assemblies.","authors":"Mads Ejsing, Adam Veng, Irina Papazu","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03550-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10584-023-03550-z","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, countries like France, UK, Germany, and Denmark have all carried out climate citizens' assemblies where a group of representatively selected citizens come together to discuss issues around climate politics and provide policy recommendations to decision-makers. The hope is that these deliberative-democratic innovations can circumvent the flaws of representational politics and help break the existing gridlock around climate politics. In this article, relying on the case of the Danish climate citizens' assembly that began its work in 2020, we argue that to truly realize the democratic potentials of climate citizens' assemblies, there is a need to think about how citizens' assemblies might come to multiply and proliferate in political spaces away from, or at least in addition to, those in and around the state, so they can become local drivers of democratic action and community empowerment. The argument is not that citizens' assemblies should give up on affecting the state and parliamentary politics altogether, but that we must be careful not to put too much faith in state institutions, and also look for spaces outside the state where the conditions for transformative change and democratic capacity-building currently appear more fecund. Drawing together these arguments, we offer what we call a more radical vision of the democratic potentials of climate citizens' assemblies, and provide some guidelines for what that would look like in practice.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"176 6","pages":"73"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10227389/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9579177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Machine learning and the quest for objectivity in climate model parameterization. 机器学习和对气候模型参数化客观性的追求。

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2023-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-07-18 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03532-1

Julie Jebeile, Vincent Lam, Mason Majszak, Tim Räz

引用次数: 0

Climate justice in higher education: a proposed paradigm shift towards a transformative role for colleges and universities. 高等教育中的气候正义:提议的范式转变，使高等院校发挥变革作用。

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03486-4

Alaina Kinol, Elijah Miller, Hannah Axtell, Ilana Hirschfeld, Sophie Leggett, Yutong Si, Jennie C Stephens

{"title":"Climate justice in higher education: a proposed paradigm shift towards a transformative role for colleges and universities.","authors":"Alaina Kinol, Elijah Miller, Hannah Axtell, Ilana Hirschfeld, Sophie Leggett, Yutong Si, Jennie C Stephens","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03486-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03486-4","url":null,"abstract":"Moving beyond technocratic approaches to climate action, climate justice articulates a paradigm shift in how organizations think about their response to the climate crisis. This paper makes a conceptual contribution by exploring the potential of this paradigm shift in higher education. Through a commitment to advancing transformative climate justice, colleges and universities around the world could realign and redefine their priorities in teaching, research, and community engagement to shape a more just, stable, and healthy future. As inequitable climate vulnerabilities increase, higher education has multiple emerging opportunities to resist, reverse, and repair climate injustices and related socioeconomic and health disparities. Rather than continuing to perpetuate the concentration of wealth and power by promoting climate isolationism's narrow focus on technological innovation and by prioritizing the financial success of alumni and the institution, colleges and universities have an opportunity to leverage their unique role as powerful anchor institutions to demonstrate climate justice innovations and catalyze social change toward a more equitable, renewable-based future. This paper explores how higher education can advance societal transformation toward climate justice, by teaching climate engagement, supporting impactful justice-centered research, embracing non-extractive hiring and purchasing practices, and integrating community-engaged climate justice innovations across campus operations. Two climate justice frameworks, Green New Deal-type policies and energy democracy, provide structure for reviewing a breadth of proposed transformational climate justice initiatives in higher education.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"176 2","pages":"15"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9909666/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10705064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

Introduction from the editors. 编辑介绍。

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03520-5

Katja Doose, Marianna Poberezhskaya, Benjamin Beuerle

引用次数: 0

Climate change amplified the 2009 extreme landslide event in Austria. 气候变化加剧了2009年奥地利发生的极端山体滑坡事件。

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2023-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-08-26 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03593-2

Aditya N Mishra, Douglas Maraun, Raphael Knevels, Heimo Truhetz, Alexander Brenning, Herwig Proske

{"title":"Climate change amplified the 2009 extreme landslide event in Austria.","authors":"Aditya N Mishra, Douglas Maraun, Raphael Knevels, Heimo Truhetz, Alexander Brenning, Herwig Proske","doi":"10.1007/s10584-023-03593-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10584-023-03593-2","url":null,"abstract":"Landslides are an important natural hazard in mountainous regions. Given the triggering and preconditioning by meteorological conditions, it is known that landslide risk may change in a warming climate, but whether climate change has already affected individual landslide events is still an open question, partly owing to landslide data limitations and methodological challenges in climate impact attribution. Here, we demonstrate the substantial influence of anthropogenic climate change on a severe event in the southeastern Alpine forelands with some estimated 952 individual landslides in June 2009. Our study is based on conditional event attribution complemented by an assessment of changes in atmospheric circulation. Using this approach, we simulate the meteorological event under observed and a range of counterfactual conditions of no climate change and explicitly predict the landslide occurrence probability for these conditions. We find that up to 10%, i.e., 95 landslides, can be attributed to climate change.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"176 9","pages":"124"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10460372/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10102758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Climate Change and Household Debt in Rural India. 印度农村的气候变化和家庭债务。

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学

Climatic Change Pub Date : 2022-08-01 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03407-x

Sandeep Kandikuppa, Clark Gray

{"title":"Climate Change and Household Debt in Rural India.","authors":"Sandeep Kandikuppa, Clark Gray","doi":"10.1007/s10584-022-03407-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03407-x","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change and indebtedness have been repeatedly highlighted as major causes of distress for rural households in India. However, despite the close connection between climate conditions and rural livelihoods, there has been little attempt to systematically examine the association between the two. To address this gap, we combine national-level longitudinal data from IHDS, MERRA-2, and the Indian Ministry of Agriculture to study the impact of climate anomalies on household indebtedness across rural India. Using a longitudinal approach that accounts for potential confounders at household, village, and district levels, we find pervasive effects of season-specific, five-year climate anomalies on multiple dimensions of household debt, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas. Most notably, temperature anomalies in the winter cropping season in arid and semi-arid areas are associated with increasing household indebtedness. We further find that climate change interacts with existing socioeconomic differences-caste and landholding in particular-to deepen both the size and the depth of indebtedness for rural households.","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"173 3-4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9980834/pdf/nihms-1849006.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9942797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0