Climatic Change最新文献

{"title":"Extreme heat and drought at flowering could threaten global wheat yields under climate change.","authors":"Nimai Senapati, Nigel G Halford, Malcolm J Hawkesford, Peter R Shewry, Mikhail A Semenov","doi":"10.1007/s10584-025-04054-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10584-025-04054-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Global food security is a major challenge in the 21st century, exacerbated by increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events under climate change. The extreme climatic events around flowering, such as intense heatwaves and droughts, threaten crop yields by impacting reproductive development and grain setting. Our study estimated the potential impacts of short-term, high impact extreme temperature and drought events during flowering on global wheat yields under future climates, using climate projections from CMIP6 and a state-of-the-art wheat model (Sirius). Results show that although extreme drought around flowering currently poses a higher yield loss than extreme heat, global yield loss due to drought is predicted to decrease by 9% and 18% by 2050 and 2090, respectively. Yet, global yield losses from heat stress are expected to increase significantly, by 32% and 77% by 2050 and 2090, respectively. Consequently, heat stress at flowering emerges as a serious threat to global wheat yields under climate change, substantially increasing the vulnerability of wheat. Therefore, developing new cultivars tolerant not only to drought but also heat stress during flowering is critical for enhancing future wheat yields and sustainability in changing climates.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-04054-8.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"179 2","pages":"28"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12855381/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146104331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating the impacts of recurrent and expanding coastal flooding on septic systems in Maryland's Chesapeake Bay.","authors":"Andre de Souza de Lima, Margaret A Walls, Yanjun Liao, Emma DeAngeli, Allison Reilly, Nathan Boyd, Andrew Lazur, P J Ruess, Celso M Ferreira","doi":"10.1007/s10584-026-04172-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-026-04172-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Projected sea-level rise (SLR) is expected to substantially expand coastal flood extents across Maryland's Chesapeake Bay, with implications for decentralized wastewater infrastructure. This study integrates modeled coastal flooding scenarios from 2020 to 2060 with septic systems locations to quantify exposure under daily and annual flood conditions and identify areas where exposure intersects with high social vulnerability. Findings highlight spatial heterogeneity in flood impacts, with Dorchester County experiencing the largest flood extent and Worcester the steepest proportional increase in both flood extent and septic system exposure. By 2060, flood extent is projected to increase by 44% in Wicomico and exceed 260 km² in Somerset. Across the region, the number of affected septic systems more than doubles, with Worcester exhibiting a sevenfold increase from baseline and Dorchester surpassing 1,700 systems exposed. Flood frequency is also projected to increase, with hundreds of systems transitioning into monthly or weekly inundation by 2060, particularly in Dorchester and Somerset counties. Spatial aggregation identifies clusters of septic system exposure across the region. The spatial configuration of flood-exposed systems and social vulnerability varies across block groups, indicating that increasing flood exposure and recurrence affect communities with differing demographic characteristics.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-026-04172-x.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"179 4","pages":"80"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13056770/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147644774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Emerging changes in lake temperature extremes and variability in South America.","authors":"Dieu Anh Dinh, Yan Tong, Lian Feng, Ayan Fleischmann, Eleanor Jennings, Valerie McCarthy, Siobhan Jordan, R Iestyn Woolway","doi":"10.1007/s10584-026-04137-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-026-04137-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>South America contains some of the world's most ecologically and hydrologically diverse freshwater systems, which are increasingly vulnerable to climate change and human pressures. Despite their importance, the diurnal and interannual variability of lake surface water temperature (LSWT) across the continent remains poorly understood. In this study, we analyze thermal patterns in 2,406 South American lakes, spanning both historical (1981-2020) and future (2021-2099) periods. We assess LSWT trends, lake heatwave dynamics, and the influence of key meteorological drivers on lake thermal dynamics. Our results show that 97.0% of lakes (<i>n</i> = 2,333) experienced significant warming over the past four decades (+ 0.11 K decade^- 1), with 86.2% (<i>n</i> = 2,074) also exhibiting rising diurnal temperature variability (+ 0.02 K decade^- 1). Air temperature was the dominant driver in the northern and southern regions, while shortwave radiation played a greater role in shaping diurnal dynamics. LSWT anomalies are projected to rise, with heatwave events increasing in frequency, duration and intensity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, we introduce a novel thermal typology based on diurnal and seasonal temperature ranges, identifying distinct lake response types, such as Thermally Extreme and Thermally Buffered, highlighting differential sensitivities to climate forcing. These findings provide new insight into lake thermal behaviour under climate change and underscore the need for targeted adaptation and conservation strategies to protect freshwater ecosystems in South America.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-026-04137-0.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"179 3","pages":"41"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12909474/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146218814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The attribution of human health outcomes to climate change: a transdisciplinary guidance document.","authors":"K Ebi, A Haines, R F S Andrade, C Åström, M L Barreto, A Bonell, N Brink, C Caminade, C J Carlson, R Carter, P Chua, G Cissé, F J Colón-González, S Dasgupta, L A Galvao, M Garrido Zornoza, A Gasparrini, G Gordon-Strachan, S Hajat, S Harper, L J Harrington, M Hashizume, J Hess, J Hilly, V Ingole, L V Jacobson, T Kapwata, C Keeler, S A Kidd, E W Kimani-Murage, R K Kolli, S Kovats, S Li, R Lowe, D Mitchell, K Murray, M New, O E Ogunniyi, S E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, J Pescarini, B L Pineda Restrepo, S T R Pinho, V Prescott, N Redvers, S Ryan, B Santer, C-F Schleussner, J C Semenza, M Taylor, L Temple, S Thiam, W Thiery, A M Tompkins, S Undorf, A M Vicedo-Cabrera, K Wan, R Warren, C Webster, A Woodward, C Wright, R F Stuart-Smith","doi":"10.1007/s10584-025-03976-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10584-025-03976-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>For over 30 years, detection and attribution (D&A) studies have informed key conclusions in international and national assessments of climate science, providing compelling evidence for the reality and seriousness of the human effects on the global climate. In the early 21st century, D&A methods were adapted to assess the contribution of climate change to longer-term trends in earth system processes and extreme weather events. More recently, attribution research helped quantify the health and economic impacts of climate change. Here we provide guidance for transdisciplinary collaboration in designing, conducting, interpreting, and reporting robust and policy-relevant attribution analyses of human health outcomes. This guidance resulted from discussions among experts in health and climate science. Recommended steps include co-developing the research question across disciplines; establishing a transdisciplinary analytic team with fundamental grounding in the core disciplines; engaging meaningfully with relevant stakeholders and decision-makers to define an appropriate study design and analytic process, including defining the exposure event or trend; identifying, visualizing, and describing linkages in the causal pathway from exposure to weather/climate variables to the health outcome(s) of interest; choosing appropriate counterfactual climate data, and where applicable, to evaluate the skill of the climate and process or empirical health model(s) used in D&A research; quantifying the attributable changes in climate variables; quantifying the attributable health impacts within the context of other determinants of exposure and vulnerability; and reporting key results, including a description of how recommendations were incorporated into the analytical plan. Implementation of guidance would benefit diverse stakeholders including researchers, research funders, policymakers, and climate litigation by harmonizing methods and increasing confidence in findings.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"178 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7618133/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145085209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bringing art and science together to address climate change.","authors":"Allyza R Lustig, Allison R Crimmins, Michael O Snyder, Laura Tanner, Ian van Coller","doi":"10.1007/s10584-025-03861-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10584-025-03861-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Art x Climate was the first-ever gallery of visual art to be included in the National Climate Assessment. This letter outlines the purpose and process of Art x Climate and highlights three Art x Climate artists and their work. The letter concludes with lessons learned from this project: the need for cross-disciplinary respect among the arts and sciences, the wide range of themes and artworks centered around climate change, and the ability of art to facilitate new collaborations and bring more people into the climate change conversation.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"178 3","pages":"47"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11885365/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143584700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Refining methods for attributing health impacts to climate change: a heat-mortality case study in Zürich.","authors":"Rupert F Stuart-Smith, Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera, Sihan Li, Friederike E L Otto, Kristine Belesova, Andy Haines, Luke J Harrington, Jeremy J Hess, Rashmi Venkatraman, Thom Wetzer, Alistair Woodward, Kristie L Ebi","doi":"10.1007/s10584-025-04011-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10584-025-04011-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Heat-related deaths occur throughout the summer months, peak during heatwaves, and are affected by temperature and exposed populations' sensitivities to meteorological conditions. Previous studies found that climate change is increasing heat-related mortality worldwide. We build on existing epidemiological methods to shed light on the adverse effects of climate change on human health. We address limitations in existing methods and apply refined approaches to assess heat mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Zürich, Switzerland, over 50 years (1969-2018) including a case study of summer 2018. Our methodological refinements affect how counterfactual climate scenarios are derived, and facilitate accounting for changing vulnerability, and assessing impacts during and outside heatwaves. We find nearly 1,700 heat-related deaths attributable to human-induced climate change between 1969 and 2018. Declining vulnerability to heat avoided at least 700 heat-related deaths. The approach described here could be applied elsewhere to quantify the effect of climate change on other health outcomes.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-04011-5.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"178 9","pages":"165"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12423209/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145063545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Media coverage of climate activist groups in Germany.","authors":"Fabian Dablander, Simon Wimmer, Jonas Haslbeck","doi":"10.1007/s10584-025-03959-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10584-025-03959-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climate activist groups aim to address climate change by informing citizens about its risks and potential solutions, and by providing a way for citizens to engage in collective action to change policy. The effectiveness of climate activist groups, some of which engage in disruptive protests, is influenced by how they are portrayed by the news media. Using frequency analysis and GPT-4, we analysed all online news articles from major German newspapers in 2022 and 2023 about the two most prominent climate activist groups, Fridays for Future and Last Generation. A substantial proportion of the articles provides little information about the risks and solutions of climate change, especially when reporting on the more disruptive Last Generation compared to Fridays for Future, which primarily engages in legal protest. Last Generation is also portrayed more negatively, as more violent, and as more polarising. Right-leaning newspapers provide the least information about climate change and portray activist groups most negatively. We discuss the implications of our results for the media, activist groups, and future research.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"178 8","pages":"144"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12287173/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144728423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Broadening diversity, equity, accessibility, and inclusion in the process and development of climate assessments.","authors":"Eric K Chu, Gillian Bowser, Abby G Frazier, Alyssa Quintyne, Linda Shi, Pamela McElwee","doi":"10.1007/s10584-025-03873-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10584-025-03873-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Comprehensive assessments of scientific knowledge are essential to inform efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change impacts. The Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5), released in late 2023, adopted clear diversity, equity, accessibility, and inclusion (DEAI) goals and trainings, which helped diversify expert participation, broaden the types of knowledge included, and widen public engagement. This Letter, written by NCA5 authors, reflects on the impacts and limitations of these efforts and suggests specific actions to further promote collaboration, honor and recognize the knowledge of frontline communities, and guide more just and holistic climate assessments.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"178 4","pages":"63"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11925982/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143691106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Droughts and conflicts during the late Roman period.","authors":"Charles Norman, Lothar Schwinden, Paul Krusic, Andreas Rzepecki, Tatiana Bebchuk, Ulf Büntgen","doi":"10.1007/s10584-025-03925-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10584-025-03925-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Despite continuous investigation, reasons for both the abandonment of Roman Britain around 410 CE, and the separate collapse of the Western Roman Empire in 476 CE remain unclear. Here, we use tree ring-based climate reconstructions and written documentary sources to show that a sequence of severe summer droughts from 364 to 366 CE not only contributed to prolonged harvest failures and food shortages, but also played a role in the 'Barbarian Conspiracy', a catastrophic military defeat for Roman Britain in 367 CE. In line with contemporary reports from the historian Ammianus Marcellinus, this pivotal event in pre-modern history coincided with anomalous coin hoarding, and a gradual depopulation of Roman villas and towns. Expanding our climate-conflict analysis from Roman Britain as a case study to the entire Roman Empire and the period 350-476 CE reveals clear linkages between years in which battles occurred and preceding warm and dry summers. Based on these findings, we develop a mechanistic model to explain the vulnerability of agrarian societies to climate variability, whereby prolonged droughts cause harvest failures and food shortages (dependant on societal resilience) that lead to systematic pressure, societal instability, and eventually outright conflict.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-03925-4.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"178 5","pages":"87"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12003598/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143979009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The social sciences in climate assessments in the United States.","authors":"Keely B Maxwell, Maureen Shacklette, Emily Eisenhauer, Austin A Scheetz, Elizabeth Marino, Ariela Zycherman","doi":"10.1007/s10584-025-03906-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10584-025-03906-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This article looks at the inclusion of the social sciences in recent climate assessment reports from national and sub-national jurisdictions (state, territory, district) of the United States. It compares and contrasts interdisciplinary integration based on three criteria: inclusion of societal topics; the use of social science frameworks, theory, and literature to interpret findings; and processes of knowledge production. National and sub-national climate assessments serve different societal purposes and decision-making goals, and are produced in distinct knowledge governance contexts. While climate focused social sciences are increasingly incorporated into assessments, the nature of this incorporation varies across assessment types. The greatest advancements for interdisciplinary integration in the Fifth National Climate Assessment are in the robust treatment of economics, equity and environmental justice, and social systems and the addition of core concepts to the climate lexicon. In sub-national assessments, alternative organizational formats open up space to examine climate-society interactions for sectoral or geographic topics of interest. However, their analysis often is limited to vulnerability mapping and dollar values instead of the broader social and economic systems that shape climate drivers, hazards, impacts, and responses. Most social sciences are present in climate impacts chapters. There is opportunity to engage additional social science in analysis of climate hazards, drivers of climate change, mitigation and adaptation efforts, and the underlying social causes of vulnerability. Better integration of the social and biogeophysical sciences can help assessments expand the language of climate response and universe of potential interventions, enabling them to inform decision-making at national to local scales.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"178 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12207393/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144539239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}