Climatic Change最新文献

{"title":"Natural resource management and green technological innovation impact on health risks and social development: Evidence from advanced economies","authors":"Shuai Wang, Nabila Abid, Fayyaz Ahmad, Aamir Javed","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03795-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03795-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In light of the far-reaching consequences of ineffective natural resource management, an expanding body of scholarly investigation has emphasized environmental and economic repercussions while largely overlooking the implications for public health and social development. The present research fills this gap by investigating the influence of green technological innovation and natural resource management on health risks and social development in eleven leading industrial economies. The analysis employs extensive second-generation econometrics techniques on data framework from 1990 to 2019, controlling for variables such as gross domestic product, economic complexity, fossil fuel consumption, and foreign direct investment. The results of the CS-ARDL model indicate that green technological innovations significantly reduce health risks in both the short and long run while also improving social development. Conversely, resource management increases health risks but also contributes to social development in underlying countries. Economic complexity initially increases health risks in the short run but eventually improves in the long run. Additionally, gross domestic product positively affects social development but imposes health risks in the long run. Robustness checks, specifically the AMG test, confirm the results’ consistency and reliability. The findings emphasize the importance of implementing appropriate resource policy measures to effectively reduce health risks through responsible resource management practices and the widespread diffusion of green technology.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142254238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Green industrial policy for climate action in the basic materials industry","authors":"Åsa Löfgren, Lassi Ahlvik, Inge van den Bijgaart, Jessica Coria, Jūratė Jaraitė, Filip Johnsson, Johan Rootzén","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03801-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03801-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Historically, the basic materials industry has had relatively low R&amp;D expenditure levels, raising concerns about meeting 2050 climate targets given the crucial need for innovation and technology advancement in this industry. Decisive government intervention and active support for key technological pathways are required to address significant market failures and catalyse industrial decarbonisation. This Essay lays out the economic justification for an active green industrial policy and proposes key policy design principles, with the aim of striking a balance between facilitating the green industrial transition and maintaining cost efficiency in meeting climate targets.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Raising the bar: What determines the ambition level of corporate climate targets?","authors":"Clara Privato, Matthew P. Johnson, Timo Busch","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03783-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03783-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Since the launch of the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), we have witnessed a steady increase in the number of companies committing to climate targets for large-scale reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While recent studies present various methodologies for establishing climate targets (e.g., sectoral decarbonization approach, near-term, long-term, net zero), we still don’t understand the explanatory factors determining the level of ambition companies demonstrate in target setting. In this paper, a two-stage qualitative study is conducted with a sample of 22 companies from five countries. First, these companies’ publicly disclosed climate targets are evaluated according to four target ambition criteria: target type, scope, timeframe, and temperature alignment. Secondly, multiple explanatory factors for target setting were identified during the content analysis of the interviews to see how present these factors appear in the ambition levels. Within companies with highly ambitious climate targets, the findings indicate that certain factors are highly present, including leadership engagement, continual management support, employee involvement, participation in climate initiatives, and stakeholder collaboration. Conversely, none of these key factors are highly present in companies with less ambitious climate targets. Rather, these companies strongly identify the initiating factors of market-related pressures and non-market stakeholder influence as being the driving forces behind their target setting. This paper contributes to the literature on corporate responses to climate change by expanding our understanding of explanatory factors for different corporate climate target ambition levels.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A 561-yr (1461-2022 CE) summer temperature reconstruction for Mid-Atlantic-Northeast USA shows connections to volcanic forcing and atmospheric circulation","authors":"Grant L. Harley, Justin T. Maxwell, Karen E. King, Shelly A. Rayback, Edward R. Cook, Christopher Hansen, R. Stockton Maxwell, Frederick Reinig, Jan Esper, Tsun Fung Au, Ellen V. Bergan, Katherine E. Brings, Nick Koenig, Benjamin Lockwood, Richard D. Thaxton","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03798-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03798-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Contextualizing current increases in Northern Hemisphere temperatures is precluded by the short instrumental record of the past <i>ca.</i> 120 years and the dearth of temperature-sensitive proxy records, particularly at lower latitudes south of &lt;50 °N. We develop a network of 29 blue intensity chronologies derived from tree rings of <i>Tsuga canadensis</i> (L.) Carrière and <i>Picea rubens</i> Sarg. trees distributed across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast USA (MANE)—a region underrepresented by multi-centennial temperature records. We use this network to reconstruct mean March-September air temperatures back to 1461 CE based on a model that explains 62% of the instrumental temperature variance from 1901−1976 CE. Since 1998 CE, MANE summer temperatures are consistently the warmest within the context of the past 561 years exceeding the 1951−1980 mean of +1.3 °C. Cool summers across MANE were frequently volcanically forced, with significant (<i>p</i>&lt;0.05) temperature departures associated with 80% of the largest tropical (<i>n</i>=13) and extratropical (<i>n</i>=15) eruptions since 1461 CE. Yet, we find that more of the identified cool events in the record were likely unforced by volcanism and either related to stochastic variability or atmospheric circulation via significant associations (<i>p</i>&lt;0.05) to regional, coastal sea-surface temperatures, 500-hpa geopotential height, and 300-hpa meridional and zonal wind vectors. Expanding the MANE network to the west and south and combining it with existing temperature-sensitive proxies across North America is an important next step toward producing a gridded temperature reconstruction field for North America.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unveiling the future water pulse of central asia: a comprehensive 21st century hydrological forecast from stochastic water balance modeling","authors":"Tobias Siegfried, Aziz Ul Haq Mujahid, Beatrice Marti, Peter Molnar, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Andrey Yakovlev","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03799-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03799-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study uses a new dataset on gauge locations and catchments to assess the impact of 21st-century climate change on the hydrology of 221 high-mountain catchments in Central Asia. A steady-state stochastic soil moisture water balance model was employed to project changes in runoff and evaporation for 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, compared to the baseline period of 1979–2011. Baseline climate data were sourced from CHELSA V21 climatology, providing daily temperature and precipitation for each subcatchment. Future projections used bias-corrected outputs from four General Circulation Models under four pathways/scenarios (SSP1 RCP 2.6, SSP2 RCP 4.5, SSP3 RCP 7.0, SSP5 RCP 8.5). Global datasets informed soil parameter distribution, and glacier ablation data were integrated to refine discharge modeling and validated against long-term catchment discharge data. The atmospheric models predict an increase in median precipitation between 5.5% to 10.1% and a rise in median temperatures by 1.9 °C to 5.6 °C by the end of the 21st century, depending on the scenario and relative to the baseline. Hydrological model projections for this period indicate increases in actual evaporation between 7.3% to 17.4% and changes in discharge between + 1.1% to –2.7% for the SSP1 RCP 2.6 and SSP5 RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Under the most extreme climate scenario (SSP5-8.5), discharge increases of 3.8% and 5.0% are anticipated during the first and second future periods, followed by a decrease of -2.7% in the third period. Significant glacier wastage is expected in lower-lying runoff zones, with overall discharge reductions in parts of the Tien Shan, including the Naryn catchment. Conversely, high-elevation areas in the Gissar-Alay and Pamir mountains are projected to experience discharge increases, driven by enhanced glacier ablation and delayed peak water, among other things. Shifts in precipitation patterns suggest more extreme but less frequent events, potentially altering the hydroclimate risk landscape in the region. Our findings highlight varied hydrological responses to climate change throughout high-mountain Central Asia. These insights inform strategies for effective and sustainable water management at the national and transboundary levels and help guide local stakeholders.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"104 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intensity, frequency and coverage of hydro-meteorological droughts and agriculture in the semi-arid basins of Maharashtra (India)","authors":"Rahul S. Todmal","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03794-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03794-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The present investigation attempted to understand the intensity, frequency and spatial coverage of rainfall, runoff, groundwater and agricultural droughts in the semi-arid region of Maharashtra during 1981–2014. For this, various indices similar to Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (probabilistic nature) were applied. The linear regression, partial correlation and Student’s t-Test techniques were also used to evaluate inter-connections in hydro-meteorological and agricultural droughts. The hydrological deficiencies mimic the pattern of meteorological droughts in the study area with respect to coverage and intensity. Moderate hydro-meteorological droughts occurred frequently (once in 3 to 4 years). Additionally, the research highlighted an increase in the frequency and intensity of hydrological droughts during the post-1990 period, possibly linked to anthropogenic interventions (dam constructions and irrigation expansion). Despite El Niño events resulting in below-average rainfall, runoff, and groundwater levels in the study area, other phenomena such as Equatorial Indian Ocean Monsoon Oscillation (EQUINOO) / Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may have played a crucial role in major drought occurrences in 1986, 2003, and 2012 (events that happen once in &gt; 30 years). The hydro-meteorological droughts lead to agricultural droughts, as they significantly affect the rainfed and irrigated crops in terms of productivity and cropped area. This effect was particularly notable during severe and region-wide droughts in 1985-86, 2002-03, and 2011-12. Furthermore, the investigation suggested that the study area is likely to experience hydro-meteorological deficiencies with ~ 25% probability between 2029 and 2050, coupled with a significant temperature rise (by 1.05 °C). This projected scenario could exacerbate water scarcity and agricultural distress in the future (up to 2050).</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Combined location online weather data: easy-to-use targeted weather analysis for agriculture","authors":"Darren Yates, Christopher Blanchard, Allister Clarke, Sabih-Ur Rehman, Md Zahidul Islam, Russell Ford, Rob Walsh","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03793-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03793-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The continuing effects of climate change require farmers and growers to have greater understanding of how these changes affect crop production. However, while climatic data is generally available to help provide much of that understanding, it can often be in a form not easy to digest. The proposed Combined Location Online Weather Data (CLOWD) framework is an easy-to-use online platform for analysing recent and historical weather data of any location within Australia at the click of a map. CLOWD requires no programming skills and operates in any HTML5 web browser on PC and mobile devices. It enables comparison between current and previous growing seasons over a range of environmental parameters, and can create a plain-English PDF report for offline use, using natural language generation (NLG). This paper details the platform, the design decisions taken and outlines how farmers and growers can use CLOWD to better understand current growing conditions. Prototypes of CLOWD are now online for PCs and smartphones.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The history and future of IPCC special reports: A dual role of politicisation and normalisation","authors":"Shinichiro Asayama","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03788-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03788-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The special reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have a unique character in IPCC scientific assessment. Their main purpose is to address specific timely issues of policy relevance. This article explores the nature and role of IPCC special reports along the lines of three questions: (1) the <i>history</i> (‘where they come from’); (2) the <i>function</i> (‘what they are doing’); and (3) the <i>future</i> (‘where they are going’). In earlier assessment cycles, special reports were characterised mostly as a direct channel for quickly responding to the request from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The conduct of special reports has been gradually institutionalised to embed its planning in the overall scoping of the entire assessment cycle. More recently, they have become a vehicle to consolidate cross-cutting scientific perspectives and serve the diverse needs of the international policy community, not only the UNFCCC. This historical evolution is, in a sense, the result of striving for greater policy relevance. Special reports have a dual political function—namely, turning into the site or object of politicised debates on science (politicisation) and serving as ‘de facto governance’ with the effect of normalising politically contested ideas (normalisation). This dual function is two different faces emerging from the process into which the IPCC is brought to deal with political controversy. The duality of the two functions also manifests inherent tensions that lie behind the IPCC’s ‘policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive’ principle. For the future of special reports, the IPCC could reconsider the role of special reports in light of the priority over comprehensive assessment reports, the responsiveness to the UNFCCC request and the selection and scope definition of timely topics. However, there will remain a trade-off between provisional science and lasting political impact caused by the future undertaking of IPCC special reports on any topic.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"86 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling climate change impacts on lake ice and snow demonstrates breeding habitat decline of the endangered Saimaa ringed seal","authors":"Juho Jakkila, Miina Auttila, Tapio Tuukkanen, Noora Veijalainen","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03797-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03797-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Snowdrifts on lake ice provide vital breeding habitats for the endangered Saimaa ringed seal. In this study, a lake ice model of Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System (WSFS-Ice) was developed for improved estimation of ice and snow conditions in Lake Saimaa during the pupping season of the Saimaa ringed seal. The WSFS-Ice model is based on energy balance, enabling reliable estimation of the ice cover evolution in current and future climate. In addition, a simple snowdrift model was used to simulate formation of snowdrifts, which are essential for the seals breeding success in Lake Saimaa. The model was calibrated against ice thickness, ice type and snow depth measurements. According to our results based on climate scenarios with intermediate representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5), the breeding habitat of the Saimaa ringed seal is significantly deteriorating during the twenty-first century. The mean depth of the snowdrifts is projected to decrease approximately to half from the 1981–2010 to 2070–99 period and at the same time the ice-covered period is reduced by one and a half months. During the mildest winters the ice cover is projected to melt even before the pupping season has ended. The results highlight the importance of climate change mitigation and active conservation measures to enhance seal population growth, enabling it to survive in a changing climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On Micropolitics: Climate adaptation and Indigenous governance in Western Alaska","authors":"Stephen Lezak, Genevieve Rock","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03769-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03769-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate adaptation for Indigenous communities is not as simple as making good policy; it is equally about how policy is implemented and how collaboration unfolds between settler governments and Indigenous stakeholders. Rural Alaska Native villages are among the most environmentally threatened communities in the United States. Their ability to effectively manage environmental change and preserve sovereignty depends upon successful collaboration with a range of stakeholders, especially federal agencies. For more than two decades, academics and government agencies have documented a consistent pattern of failures, particularly by federal actors, to effectively manage adaptation challenges. These obstacles are sometimes misrepresented as policy failures. While poor policy is certainly involved in these poor outcomes, this paper highlights a set of barriers to successful collaboration that are not policy issues, per se, but rather micropolitical issues; that is, they pertain to the <i>conduct</i> of government in the context of Tribal relationships. Unaddressed, these micropolitical issues have created obstacles to Alaska Native communities’ self-determination as they adapt to a changing landscape. These barriers are explored in a case study drawn from Typhoon Merbok, which struck Western Alaska in 2022, and empirically grounded in a series of interviews and participant observation with experts, elders, elected officials, and Tribal staff. This article concludes with several concrete recommendations to improve the practice of domestic diplomacy between Indigenous communities and colonial governments.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}