Climatic Change最新文献

{"title":"Bringing art and science together to address climate change.","authors":"Allyza R Lustig, Allison R Crimmins, Michael O Snyder, Laura Tanner, Ian van Coller","doi":"10.1007/s10584-025-03861-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10584-025-03861-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Art x Climate was the first-ever gallery of visual art to be included in the National Climate Assessment. This letter outlines the purpose and process of Art x Climate and highlights three Art x Climate artists and their work. The letter concludes with lessons learned from this project: the need for cross-disciplinary respect among the arts and sciences, the wide range of themes and artworks centered around climate change, and the ability of art to facilitate new collaborations and bring more people into the climate change conversation.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"178 3","pages":"47"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11885365/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143584700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Broadening diversity, equity, accessibility, and inclusion in the process and development of climate assessments.","authors":"Eric K Chu, Gillian Bowser, Abby G Frazier, Alyssa Quintyne, Linda Shi, Pamela McElwee","doi":"10.1007/s10584-025-03873-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10584-025-03873-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Comprehensive assessments of scientific knowledge are essential to inform efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change impacts. The Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5), released in late 2023, adopted clear diversity, equity, accessibility, and inclusion (DEAI) goals and trainings, which helped diversify expert participation, broaden the types of knowledge included, and widen public engagement. This Letter, written by NCA5 authors, reflects on the impacts and limitations of these efforts and suggests specific actions to further promote collaboration, honor and recognize the knowledge of frontline communities, and guide more just and holistic climate assessments.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"178 4","pages":"63"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11925982/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143691106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Droughts and conflicts during the late Roman period.","authors":"Charles Norman, Lothar Schwinden, Paul Krusic, Andreas Rzepecki, Tatiana Bebchuk, Ulf Büntgen","doi":"10.1007/s10584-025-03925-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03925-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Despite continuous investigation, reasons for both the abandonment of Roman Britain around 410 CE, and the separate collapse of the Western Roman Empire in 476 CE remain unclear. Here, we use tree ring-based climate reconstructions and written documentary sources to show that a sequence of severe summer droughts from 364 to 366 CE not only contributed to prolonged harvest failures and food shortages, but also played a role in the 'Barbarian Conspiracy', a catastrophic military defeat for Roman Britain in 367 CE. In line with contemporary reports from the historian Ammianus Marcellinus, this pivotal event in pre-modern history coincided with anomalous coin hoarding, and a gradual depopulation of Roman villas and towns. Expanding our climate-conflict analysis from Roman Britain as a case study to the entire Roman Empire and the period 350-476 CE reveals clear linkages between years in which battles occurred and preceding warm and dry summers. Based on these findings, we develop a mechanistic model to explain the vulnerability of agrarian societies to climate variability, whereby prolonged droughts cause harvest failures and food shortages (dependant on societal resilience) that lead to systematic pressure, societal instability, and eventually outright conflict.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-03925-4.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"178 5","pages":"87"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12003598/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143979009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the impact of climate change on respiratory health in Nigeria: a scoping review of current research, government policies and programs.","authors":"Faatihah Niyi-Odumosu, Obianuju B Ozoh, Victor Oloruntoba Ope, Boni M Ale, Olayemi Akinnola, Alexander Iseolorunkanmi, Davies Adeloye","doi":"10.1007/s10584-025-03880-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10584-025-03880-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climate change significantly impacts health globally, especially in densely populated, rapidly industrialising and ecologically diverse countries like Nigeria. We analysed climate change policies, studies, programs, and events at the national and subnational levels in Nigeria and explored their effects on public and respiratory health. Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMAScR) checklist, we searched PubMed, African Journals Online (AJoL), Google Scholar and government data repositories on January 10, 2024. We synthesised results using an adapted sector-level framework based on the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Our searches returned 262 items, of which 32, including research studies, reports and grey documents, were retained for synthesis. Although some policies and programmes, like the Climate Change Act and Nigerian Climate and Health Observatory, exist, implementation is limited across many settings. Key reported respiratory pollutants in Nigeria include particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), gaseous emissions (CO, SO₂, NOx), agricultural by-products (NH₃, H₂S), greenhouse gases (CH₄, CO₂), and microbial contaminants, which collectively increase the risk of respiratory inflammation, infections, and exacerbations of chronic respiratory symptoms and diseases. Our findings underscore a clear link between climate change and worsening respiratory health in many Nigerian settings. The current policies and programmes' have limited impact, calling for comprehensive reforms, including improved enforcement and targeted action against major pollution sources, recognition of environmental rights, and stronger public health initiatives and community action.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-03880-0.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"178 3","pages":"35"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11832684/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143457022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future.","authors":"Samantha Basile, Allison Crimmins, Fredric Lipschultz, Kenneth E Kunkel, Kate Marvel, Adam Terando, Claudia Tebaldi, David Pierce, Wenying Su, L Ruby Leung, Katharine Hayhoe","doi":"10.1007/s10584-025-03888-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03888-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climate assessments consolidate our understanding of possible future climate conditions as represented by climate projections, which are largely based on the output of global climate models. Over the past 30 years, the scientific insights gained from climate projections have been refined through model structural improvements, emerging constraints on climate feedbacks, and increased computational efficiency. Within the same period, the process of assessing and evaluating information from climate projections has become more defined and targeted to inform users. As the size and audience of climate assessments has expanded, the framing, relevancy, and accessibility of projections has become increasingly important. This paper reviews the use of climate projections in national climate assessments (NCA) while highlighting challenges and opportunities that have been identified over time. Reflections and lessons learned address the continuous process to understand the broadening assessment audience and evolving user needs. Insights for future NCA development include (1) identifying benchmarks and standards for evaluating downscaled datasets, (2) expanding efforts to gather research gaps and user needs to inform how climate projections are presented in the assessment (3) providing practitioner guidance on the use, interpretation, and reporting of climate projections and uncertainty to better inform decision-making.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"178 4","pages":"84"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12000164/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143979003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental impacts from the widespread implementation of ocean thermal energy conversion.","authors":"Anna G Nickoloff, Sophia T Olim, Michael Eby, Andrew J Weaver","doi":"10.1007/s10584-025-03944-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03944-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is a renewable energy system that could potentially displace significant amounts of fossil fuel-generated electricity. This study presents numerous multi-century simulations of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, a coupled climate-carbon cycle model, to better understand the global-scale environmental impacts of the widespread implementation of OTEC at varying total power levels (3, 5, 7, 10, and 15 TW). Environmental impacts include reduced warming of the sea surface by up to 3.1 ºC, increased heat uptake at intermediate depths, and enhanced biological production compared to a fossil fuel intensive control scenario. At year 2100, OTEC-induced mixing contributes roughly 60% of the relative cooling, while the remainder is from OTEC-related emission reductions. Once OTEC is terminated, all relative cooling is caused by accumulated emissions reductions. If acting alone, the residual effect of OTEC-induced mixing would contribute to a minor relative warming of the sea surface. The effect of OTEC on the expansion of known oxygen minimum zones was minimal. In many circumstances, OTEC deployment opposes the projected impacts of climate change. Relative to a high carbon emissions control scenario, OTEC deployment is associated with less surface warming, a smaller increase in surface water pCO₂, a suppression of ocean acidification, and significantly smaller declines in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Despite the potential engineering challenges and economic costs, early indications suggest that the large-scale implementation of OTEC could make a substantial contribution to climate change mitigation.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"178 5","pages":"102"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12064605/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143970924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Natural resource management and green technological innovation impact on health risks and social development: Evidence from advanced economies","authors":"Shuai Wang, Nabila Abid, Fayyaz Ahmad, Aamir Javed","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03795-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03795-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In light of the far-reaching consequences of ineffective natural resource management, an expanding body of scholarly investigation has emphasized environmental and economic repercussions while largely overlooking the implications for public health and social development. The present research fills this gap by investigating the influence of green technological innovation and natural resource management on health risks and social development in eleven leading industrial economies. The analysis employs extensive second-generation econometrics techniques on data framework from 1990 to 2019, controlling for variables such as gross domestic product, economic complexity, fossil fuel consumption, and foreign direct investment. The results of the CS-ARDL model indicate that green technological innovations significantly reduce health risks in both the short and long run while also improving social development. Conversely, resource management increases health risks but also contributes to social development in underlying countries. Economic complexity initially increases health risks in the short run but eventually improves in the long run. Additionally, gross domestic product positively affects social development but imposes health risks in the long run. Robustness checks, specifically the AMG test, confirm the results’ consistency and reliability. The findings emphasize the importance of implementing appropriate resource policy measures to effectively reduce health risks through responsible resource management practices and the widespread diffusion of green technology.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142254238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Green industrial policy for climate action in the basic materials industry","authors":"Åsa Löfgren, Lassi Ahlvik, Inge van den Bijgaart, Jessica Coria, Jūratė Jaraitė, Filip Johnsson, Johan Rootzén","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03801-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03801-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Historically, the basic materials industry has had relatively low R&amp;D expenditure levels, raising concerns about meeting 2050 climate targets given the crucial need for innovation and technology advancement in this industry. Decisive government intervention and active support for key technological pathways are required to address significant market failures and catalyse industrial decarbonisation. This Essay lays out the economic justification for an active green industrial policy and proposes key policy design principles, with the aim of striking a balance between facilitating the green industrial transition and maintaining cost efficiency in meeting climate targets.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Raising the bar: What determines the ambition level of corporate climate targets?","authors":"Clara Privato, Matthew P. Johnson, Timo Busch","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03783-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03783-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Since the launch of the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), we have witnessed a steady increase in the number of companies committing to climate targets for large-scale reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While recent studies present various methodologies for establishing climate targets (e.g., sectoral decarbonization approach, near-term, long-term, net zero), we still don’t understand the explanatory factors determining the level of ambition companies demonstrate in target setting. In this paper, a two-stage qualitative study is conducted with a sample of 22 companies from five countries. First, these companies’ publicly disclosed climate targets are evaluated according to four target ambition criteria: target type, scope, timeframe, and temperature alignment. Secondly, multiple explanatory factors for target setting were identified during the content analysis of the interviews to see how present these factors appear in the ambition levels. Within companies with highly ambitious climate targets, the findings indicate that certain factors are highly present, including leadership engagement, continual management support, employee involvement, participation in climate initiatives, and stakeholder collaboration. Conversely, none of these key factors are highly present in companies with less ambitious climate targets. Rather, these companies strongly identify the initiating factors of market-related pressures and non-market stakeholder influence as being the driving forces behind their target setting. This paper contributes to the literature on corporate responses to climate change by expanding our understanding of explanatory factors for different corporate climate target ambition levels.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Amplification of compound hot-dry extremes and associated population exposure over East Africa","authors":"Brian Odhiambo Ayugi, Charles Onyutha, Kenny Thiam Choy Lim Kam Sian, Huanhuan Zhu, Hassen Babousmail, Eun-Sung Chung","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03802-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03802-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Quantifying the vulnerability of population to multi-faceted climate change impacts on human well-being remains an urgent task. Recently, weather and climate extremes have evolved into bivariate events that heighten climate risks in unexpected ways. To investigate the potential impacts of climate extremes, this study analyzes the frequency, magnitude, and severity of observed and future compound hot-dry extremes (CHDEs) over East Africa. The CHDE events were computed from the observed precipitation and maximum temperature data of the Climatic Research Unit gridded Timeseries version five (CRU TS4.05) and outputs of climate models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, this study quantifies the population exposure to CHDE events based on future population density datasets under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Using the 75th/90th and 25th/10th percentile of precipitation and temperature as threshold to define severe and moderate events, the results show that the East African region experienced multiple moderate and severe CHDE events during the last twenty years. Based on a weighted multi-model ensemble, projections indicate that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the frequency of moderate CHDE will double, and severe CHDE will be 1.6 times that of baseline (i.e., an increase of 60%). Strong evidence of an upward trajectory is noted after 2080 for both moderate and severe CHDE. Southern parts of Tanzania and northeastern Kenya are likely to be the most affected, with all models agreeing (signal-to-noise ratio, SNR &gt; 1), indicating a likely higher magnitude of change during the mid- and far-future. Consequentially, population exposure to these impacts is projected to increase by up to 60% for moderate and severe CHDEs in parts of southern Tanzania. Attribution analysis highlights that climate change is the primary driver of CHDE exposure under the two emission pathways. The current study underscores the urgent need to reduce CO₂ emissions to prevent exceeding global warming thresholds and to develop regional adaptation measures.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"168 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142195079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}