新西兰奥特亚罗瓦未来海平面上升导致的住宅财产保险退保

IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Belinda Storey, Sally Owen, Christian Zammit, Ilan Noy
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引用次数: 0

摘要

海平面上升导致的沿海淹没事件频率增加将如何影响住宅保险费,保险合同何时撤销?我们模拟了局部海平面上升对沿海淹没事件频率增加的影响。通过对新西兰奥特亚罗瓦的四个城市进行考察,我们将历史上的极端潮汐测量数据与地理定位的房产数据相结合,估算出每处房产每年因这种灾害造成的预期损失,从而确定保险退保可能发生的时间。我们发现,由于海平面上升会改变淹没事件的频率,目前位于 1% AEP 海岸淹没区内的 99% 的房产预计在十年内(海平面上升少于 10 厘米)至少会出现部分保险退保。根据我们的建模预测,全部保险退保可能会在 20-25 年内发生,时间取决于房产的海拔高度和与海岸的距离,而且不那么直观地取决于每个地点的潮汐范围。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Insurance retreat in residential properties from future sea level rise in Aotearoa New Zealand

Insurance retreat in residential properties from future sea level rise in Aotearoa New Zealand

How will the increased frequency of coastal inundation events induced by sea level rise impact residential insurance premiums, and when would insurance contracts be withdrawn? We model the contribution of localised sea level rise to the increased frequency of coastal inundation events. Examining four Aotearoa New Zealand cities, we combine historical tide-gauge extremes with geo-located property data to estimate the annual expected loss from this hazard, for each property, in order to establish when insurance retreat is likely to occur. We find that as sea level rise changes the frequency of inundation events, 99% of properties currently within 1% AEP coastal inundation zones can expect at least partial insurance retreat within a decade (with less than 10 cm of sea level rise). Our modelling predicts that full insurance retreat is likely within 20–25 years, with timing dependent on the property’s elevation and distance from the coast, and less intuitively, on the tidal range in each location.

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来源期刊
Climatic Change
Climatic Change 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
10.20
自引率
4.20%
发文量
180
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: Climatic Change is dedicated to the totality of the problem of climatic variability and change - its descriptions, causes, implications and interactions among these. The purpose of the journal is to provide a means of exchange among those working in different disciplines on problems related to climatic variations. This means that authors have an opportunity to communicate the essence of their studies to people in other climate-related disciplines and to interested non-disciplinarians, as well as to report on research in which the originality is in the combinations of (not necessarily original) work from several disciplines. The journal also includes vigorous editorial and book review sections.
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