{"title":"马哈拉施特拉邦(印度)半干旱盆地水文气象干旱的强度、频率和覆盖范围与农业","authors":"Rahul S. Todmal","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03794-3","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The present investigation attempted to understand the intensity, frequency and spatial coverage of rainfall, runoff, groundwater and agricultural droughts in the semi-arid region of Maharashtra during 1981–2014. For this, various indices similar to Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (probabilistic nature) were applied. The linear regression, partial correlation and Student’s t-Test techniques were also used to evaluate inter-connections in hydro-meteorological and agricultural droughts. The hydrological deficiencies mimic the pattern of meteorological droughts in the study area with respect to coverage and intensity. Moderate hydro-meteorological droughts occurred frequently (once in 3 to 4 years). Additionally, the research highlighted an increase in the frequency and intensity of hydrological droughts during the post-1990 period, possibly linked to anthropogenic interventions (dam constructions and irrigation expansion). Despite El Niño events resulting in below-average rainfall, runoff, and groundwater levels in the study area, other phenomena such as Equatorial Indian Ocean Monsoon Oscillation (EQUINOO) / Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may have played a crucial role in major drought occurrences in 1986, 2003, and 2012 (events that happen once in > 30 years). The hydro-meteorological droughts lead to agricultural droughts, as they significantly affect the rainfed and irrigated crops in terms of productivity and cropped area. This effect was particularly notable during severe and region-wide droughts in 1985-86, 2002-03, and 2011-12. Furthermore, the investigation suggested that the study area is likely to experience hydro-meteorological deficiencies with ~ 25% probability between 2029 and 2050, coupled with a significant temperature rise (by 1.05 °C). This projected scenario could exacerbate water scarcity and agricultural distress in the future (up to 2050).</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Intensity, frequency and coverage of hydro-meteorological droughts and agriculture in the semi-arid basins of Maharashtra (India)\",\"authors\":\"Rahul S. Todmal\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s10584-024-03794-3\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The present investigation attempted to understand the intensity, frequency and spatial coverage of rainfall, runoff, groundwater and agricultural droughts in the semi-arid region of Maharashtra during 1981–2014. For this, various indices similar to Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (probabilistic nature) were applied. The linear regression, partial correlation and Student’s t-Test techniques were also used to evaluate inter-connections in hydro-meteorological and agricultural droughts. The hydrological deficiencies mimic the pattern of meteorological droughts in the study area with respect to coverage and intensity. Moderate hydro-meteorological droughts occurred frequently (once in 3 to 4 years). Additionally, the research highlighted an increase in the frequency and intensity of hydrological droughts during the post-1990 period, possibly linked to anthropogenic interventions (dam constructions and irrigation expansion). Despite El Niño events resulting in below-average rainfall, runoff, and groundwater levels in the study area, other phenomena such as Equatorial Indian Ocean Monsoon Oscillation (EQUINOO) / Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may have played a crucial role in major drought occurrences in 1986, 2003, and 2012 (events that happen once in > 30 years). The hydro-meteorological droughts lead to agricultural droughts, as they significantly affect the rainfed and irrigated crops in terms of productivity and cropped area. This effect was particularly notable during severe and region-wide droughts in 1985-86, 2002-03, and 2011-12. Furthermore, the investigation suggested that the study area is likely to experience hydro-meteorological deficiencies with ~ 25% probability between 2029 and 2050, coupled with a significant temperature rise (by 1.05 °C). This projected scenario could exacerbate water scarcity and agricultural distress in the future (up to 2050).</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":10372,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Climatic Change\",\"volume\":\"26 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-26\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Climatic Change\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03794-3\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Climatic Change","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03794-3","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Intensity, frequency and coverage of hydro-meteorological droughts and agriculture in the semi-arid basins of Maharashtra (India)
The present investigation attempted to understand the intensity, frequency and spatial coverage of rainfall, runoff, groundwater and agricultural droughts in the semi-arid region of Maharashtra during 1981–2014. For this, various indices similar to Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (probabilistic nature) were applied. The linear regression, partial correlation and Student’s t-Test techniques were also used to evaluate inter-connections in hydro-meteorological and agricultural droughts. The hydrological deficiencies mimic the pattern of meteorological droughts in the study area with respect to coverage and intensity. Moderate hydro-meteorological droughts occurred frequently (once in 3 to 4 years). Additionally, the research highlighted an increase in the frequency and intensity of hydrological droughts during the post-1990 period, possibly linked to anthropogenic interventions (dam constructions and irrigation expansion). Despite El Niño events resulting in below-average rainfall, runoff, and groundwater levels in the study area, other phenomena such as Equatorial Indian Ocean Monsoon Oscillation (EQUINOO) / Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may have played a crucial role in major drought occurrences in 1986, 2003, and 2012 (events that happen once in > 30 years). The hydro-meteorological droughts lead to agricultural droughts, as they significantly affect the rainfed and irrigated crops in terms of productivity and cropped area. This effect was particularly notable during severe and region-wide droughts in 1985-86, 2002-03, and 2011-12. Furthermore, the investigation suggested that the study area is likely to experience hydro-meteorological deficiencies with ~ 25% probability between 2029 and 2050, coupled with a significant temperature rise (by 1.05 °C). This projected scenario could exacerbate water scarcity and agricultural distress in the future (up to 2050).
期刊介绍:
Climatic Change is dedicated to the totality of the problem of climatic variability and change - its descriptions, causes, implications and interactions among these. The purpose of the journal is to provide a means of exchange among those working in different disciplines on problems related to climatic variations. This means that authors have an opportunity to communicate the essence of their studies to people in other climate-related disciplines and to interested non-disciplinarians, as well as to report on research in which the originality is in the combinations of (not necessarily original) work from several disciplines. The journal also includes vigorous editorial and book review sections.