A 561-yr (1461-2022 CE) summer temperature reconstruction for Mid-Atlantic-Northeast USA shows connections to volcanic forcing and atmospheric circulation
Grant L. Harley, Justin T. Maxwell, Karen E. King, Shelly A. Rayback, Edward R. Cook, Christopher Hansen, R. Stockton Maxwell, Frederick Reinig, Jan Esper, Tsun Fung Au, Ellen V. Bergan, Katherine E. Brings, Nick Koenig, Benjamin Lockwood, Richard D. Thaxton
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Contextualizing current increases in Northern Hemisphere temperatures is precluded by the short instrumental record of the past ca. 120 years and the dearth of temperature-sensitive proxy records, particularly at lower latitudes south of <50 °N. We develop a network of 29 blue intensity chronologies derived from tree rings of Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière and Picea rubens Sarg. trees distributed across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast USA (MANE)—a region underrepresented by multi-centennial temperature records. We use this network to reconstruct mean March-September air temperatures back to 1461 CE based on a model that explains 62% of the instrumental temperature variance from 1901−1976 CE. Since 1998 CE, MANE summer temperatures are consistently the warmest within the context of the past 561 years exceeding the 1951−1980 mean of +1.3 °C. Cool summers across MANE were frequently volcanically forced, with significant (p<0.05) temperature departures associated with 80% of the largest tropical (n=13) and extratropical (n=15) eruptions since 1461 CE. Yet, we find that more of the identified cool events in the record were likely unforced by volcanism and either related to stochastic variability or atmospheric circulation via significant associations (p<0.05) to regional, coastal sea-surface temperatures, 500-hpa geopotential height, and 300-hpa meridional and zonal wind vectors. Expanding the MANE network to the west and south and combining it with existing temperature-sensitive proxies across North America is an important next step toward producing a gridded temperature reconstruction field for North America.
期刊介绍:
Climatic Change is dedicated to the totality of the problem of climatic variability and change - its descriptions, causes, implications and interactions among these. The purpose of the journal is to provide a means of exchange among those working in different disciplines on problems related to climatic variations. This means that authors have an opportunity to communicate the essence of their studies to people in other climate-related disciplines and to interested non-disciplinarians, as well as to report on research in which the originality is in the combinations of (not necessarily original) work from several disciplines. The journal also includes vigorous editorial and book review sections.