A 561-yr (1461-2022 CE) summer temperature reconstruction for Mid-Atlantic-Northeast USA shows connections to volcanic forcing and atmospheric circulation

IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Grant L. Harley, Justin T. Maxwell, Karen E. King, Shelly A. Rayback, Edward R. Cook, Christopher Hansen, R. Stockton Maxwell, Frederick Reinig, Jan Esper, Tsun Fung Au, Ellen V. Bergan, Katherine E. Brings, Nick Koenig, Benjamin Lockwood, Richard D. Thaxton
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Abstract

Contextualizing current increases in Northern Hemisphere temperatures is precluded by the short instrumental record of the past ca. 120 years and the dearth of temperature-sensitive proxy records, particularly at lower latitudes south of <50 °N. We develop a network of 29 blue intensity chronologies derived from tree rings of Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière and Picea rubens Sarg. trees distributed across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast USA (MANE)—a region underrepresented by multi-centennial temperature records. We use this network to reconstruct mean March-September air temperatures back to 1461 CE based on a model that explains 62% of the instrumental temperature variance from 1901−1976 CE. Since 1998 CE, MANE summer temperatures are consistently the warmest within the context of the past 561 years exceeding the 1951−1980 mean of +1.3 °C. Cool summers across MANE were frequently volcanically forced, with significant (p<0.05) temperature departures associated with 80% of the largest tropical (n=13) and extratropical (n=15) eruptions since 1461 CE. Yet, we find that more of the identified cool events in the record were likely unforced by volcanism and either related to stochastic variability or atmospheric circulation via significant associations (p<0.05) to regional, coastal sea-surface temperatures, 500-hpa geopotential height, and 300-hpa meridional and zonal wind vectors. Expanding the MANE network to the west and south and combining it with existing temperature-sensitive proxies across North America is an important next step toward producing a gridded temperature reconstruction field for North America.

Abstract Image

美国大西洋中部-东北部 561 年(公元 1461-2022 年)夏季温度重建显示了与火山强迫和大气环流的联系
由于过去约 120 年的仪器记录较短,而且对温度敏感的代用记录较少,因此无法对当前北半球气温上升的背景进行分析。由于过去约 120 年的仪器记录较短,而对温度敏感的代用记录(尤其是北纬 50°以南的低纬度地区)又十分缺乏,因此无法对当前北半球气温上升的背景进行分析。我们从分布在美国大西洋中部和东北部(MANE)的Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière和Picea rubens Sarg.树木年轮中提取了29个蓝色强度年表,建立了一个由这些年表组成的网络。我们利用该网络重建了西元 1461 年的 3-9 月平均气温,该模型可解释西元 1901-1976 年期间 62% 的仪器温度变异。自西元 1998 年以来,曼恩夏季气温一直是过去 561 年中最温暖的,超过了 1951-1980 年 +1.3 °C的平均值。整个曼恩夏季的低温经常是由火山造成的,自西元前 1461 年以来,80% 的最大热带(13 次)和外热带(15 次)火山爆发都与温度偏差显著(p<0.05)有关。然而,我们发现,记录中更多已确定的冷事件可能不是火山活动造成的,而是与随机变率或大气环流有关,与区域、沿海海面温度、500-hpa位势高度、300-hpa经向和带状风矢量有显著关联(p<0.05)。将 MANE 网络扩展到西部和南部,并与北美现有的温度敏感代用指标相结合,是下一步为北美建立网格温度重建场的重要工作。
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来源期刊
Climatic Change
Climatic Change 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
10.20
自引率
4.20%
发文量
180
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: Climatic Change is dedicated to the totality of the problem of climatic variability and change - its descriptions, causes, implications and interactions among these. The purpose of the journal is to provide a means of exchange among those working in different disciplines on problems related to climatic variations. This means that authors have an opportunity to communicate the essence of their studies to people in other climate-related disciplines and to interested non-disciplinarians, as well as to report on research in which the originality is in the combinations of (not necessarily original) work from several disciplines. The journal also includes vigorous editorial and book review sections.
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