{"title":"The Comparative Analysis of Economic Forecasting Model on China's Logistics Engineering Industry","authors":"Liu Cuicui , Yun Jun","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2012.04.057","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2012.04.057","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As producer services, the world economic situation determines the performance of the global logistics industry, meanwhile logistics engineering has become a new impetus to economic development. Therefore, the analysis of economic forecasts, which is about total output value of China's logistics engineering, has some practical significance for some countries’ logistics engineering research and financial budget. It is that five models are used to predict China's logistics total output value. The first is linear analysis based on China's GDP between 1978 and 2006. Next, four time-series models constructed using the same time range. Predictions of the logistics total output value from each of the 5 models are compared using actual data from years 2007-2009.The Holt-Winters non-seasonal model gives the least error between actual value and predicted values. Using this model, we predict the total logistics values for years 2010-2015. Finally, using a combination of the qualitative analyses, the Holt-Winters model is modified to be more accurate and more valuable in logistics engineering financial forecast.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"5 ","pages":"Pages 366-371"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2012.04.057","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81511357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets on Evaluation of Risks in Projects of Energy Management Contract","authors":"Jingmin Wang, Yanfu Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This article describes the mechanism of energy management contract and the status of implementation of energy engineering projects in China's enterprises, takes the energy management contract projects as study object, and analyzes the risks of projects systematically. These risks include policy risk, financial risk, operational risk, efficiency risk and market risk. On this basis, this article discusses the risk evaluation index system of energy management contract project, proposes the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and intuitionistic fuzzy sets to evaluate the risks of energy management contract project, then puts up with a quantitative method for the energy management contract companies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"3 ","pages":"Pages 30-35"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.004","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73003377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Multi-Firms’ Product Innovation Diffusion Engineering Model in Dynamical Competition","authors":"Cao Hongxing , Yang Pengfei","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.033","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.033","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A continuing stream of new product development engineering is essential to ensure long-term companies’ health. The new product development process is the interactive effects among different companies’ engineering and marketing departments. At the final step of the commercialization, successful diffusion of innovations plays a key role in a dynamic competitive environment, needing the corporation of internal and external engineers, marketing people and right diffusion strategy making. The previous research build one-dimensional, two-dimensional, and three-dimensional product diffusion model of competing product in one market, which is conflict with the reality thus limit the application. This paper establishes a general mathematical model on multi-firms’ competition, extending three-dimensional model to multi-dimensional competition systems in a dynamical environment. The model assumes that there are many firms in the product life cycle and they are in an intense competition. Based on this new model, we demonstrate various diffusion strategies for firms of different size. The research result is consistent with Bass’ model. However, this paper set up a bridge by linking the micro-firms level with the macro-industry level in one product innovation engineering diffusion process. The theoretical discussion and managerial implications are provided at the end of the paper.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"3 ","pages":"Pages 297-306"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.033","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73562321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"on Reallocation of Failed Project Resource Based on Priority","authors":"Ye Jianmu, You Shenbao, Zhang Jing","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.084","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.084","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Failed projects exist objectively and massively, and their real existence and potential values of their resources require for re-allocation. Nowadays more than 90% of the projects exist in the multi-project environment, and re-allocation of failed project resources is referred to the sort-order problem. Based on the theory of Earned Value, the article integrates three indexes: schedule, cost and quality through the introduction of Benefit/Penalty function and utilized function value to measure the implementation status of the project. According to the special nature of failed project resources, “relevance” factor needs to be put into consideration. In the end, case analysis shows the method can work out sort problems of re-allocation effectively.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"4 ","pages":"Pages 338-344"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.084","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72808313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Simulation System Engineering for Train Operation Based on Cellular Automaton","authors":"SU Hongsheng, CAI Jing, HUANG Shiming","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In order to simulate operating characteristics of trains better in different block conditions, three kinds of models are proposed on the train motion under different signaling systems based on cellular automaton(CA) model in this paper, i.e., the train motion behavior under the fixed block, the moving-like block and the moving block conditions. Using the proposed engineering models, we analyze trajectories and space-time diagrams of railway traffic flow, calculate and compare the minimum departure interval under different conditions, and discuss the effect of the proportion and the departure sequence of different trains on mixed traffic flow. The simulation results show that the minimum headway time and the run time of moving block system are shortest, and with the low proportion of slow trains and suitable departure sequence the average run time of trains will be shorten greatly. It corresponds with dynamic characteristics of actual train flow and demonstrates that this system engineering is effective to simulate train movement, and can provide reference for organizations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"3 ","pages":"Pages 13-21"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80360622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Applying the Grey Forecasting Model to the Energy Supply Management Engineering","authors":"Zhiqiang Chen, Xiaojia Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2012.04.029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2012.04.029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The demand for energy supply has been increasing dramatically in recent years in the global. In addition, owing to the uncertain economic structure of the county, energy has a chaotic and nonlinear trend. In this paper, An improved grey G(1,1) prediction model is proposed to the energy management engineering. It is one approach that can be used to construct a model with limited samples to provide better forecasting advantage for long-term problems. The forecasting performance of the improved GM(1,1) model has been confirmed using the China's energy database. And the results, compared with those from artificial neural network (ANN) and times series. According to the experimental results, our proposed new method obviously can improve the prediction accuracy of the original grey model.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"5 ","pages":"Pages 179-184"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2012.04.029","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74453383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Wang Xiang , Li Yunxian , Qian Zhenwei , Shen Zeliang
{"title":"Estimation of Crop Yield Distribution: Implication for Crop Engineering Risk","authors":"Wang Xiang , Li Yunxian , Qian Zhenwei , Shen Zeliang","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.018","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.018","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper we use parametric and nonparametric density estimation procedures to evaluate crop yield distributions in Yunnan province. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is used to select a proper crop yield distribution. Maximum likelihood methods are explored to obtain reliable estimates. Furthermore, we propose a standard measure of crop engineering risk that is based on the expected loss of crop yield. Four major crops in Yunnan province based on pooled data over the period 1952-2009 are studied, and crop risks are analyzed.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"3 ","pages":"Pages 132-138"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.018","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74455600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"User Knowledge Acquisition in Automobile Engineering Styling Design","authors":"Xiang Yao, Hong-yan Hu, Jia Li","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper analyzed the main characteristics and role of qualitative and quantitative research in user research. Take Automobile Engineering design for example, probed how to get accurate description words of car styling image, using factor analysis, cluster analysis and other statistical methods, and verified the application methods and value of quantitative research applied in user knowledge acquisition.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"3 ","pages":"Pages 139-145"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.019","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77441791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Geometric Portfolio Optimization with Semivariance in Financial Engineering","authors":"Maojun Zhang , Jiangxia Nan , Gonglin Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.10.034","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.10.034","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper we consider a portfolio optimization problem on maximizing the geometric mean return subject to the lower semivariance as a risk measure in the financial engineering. Its optimal condition and the solving method via the Monte Carlo simulation are given, and a numerical experiment is presented in order to show that the method is efficient.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"3 ","pages":"Pages 217-221"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2011.10.034","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83330495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"on reasons of uncontrollable construction cost based on the ABC analysis method and the complete decomposition model","authors":"Fang Li , Gao Xianyi , Ma Xin","doi":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.087","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.087","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In view of the previous studies on uncontrollable construction cost, which mostly were based on the practical experiences and subjective speculating, the conclusions were empirical and lack of data support. In order to solve this problem, the quantitative analysis methods are introduced here. The application of ABC analysis method can distinguish the minor-key factors from tremendous factors which influence the cost changes. And the complete decomposition of construction cost changes can decompose the main effects of the cost changes to define the key effects. Through applying these two methods, the construction cost can be controlled by mainly controlling the key factors and effects of the projects. Besides, project data of uncontrollable construction cost can be accumulated to provide objective and scientific suggestions on controlling cost. A completed small civil engineering is presented as an example.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101207,"journal":{"name":"Systems Engineering Procedia","volume":"4 ","pages":"Pages 359-365"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.087","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84343313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}