The Comparative Analysis of Economic Forecasting Model on China's Logistics Engineering Industry

Abstract

As producer services, the world economic situation determines the performance of the global logistics industry, meanwhile logistics engineering has become a new impetus to economic development. Therefore, the analysis of economic forecasts, which is about total output value of China's logistics engineering, has some practical significance for some countries’ logistics engineering research and financial budget. It is that five models are used to predict China's logistics total output value. The first is linear analysis based on China's GDP between 1978 and 2006. Next, four time-series models constructed using the same time range. Predictions of the logistics total output value from each of the 5 models are compared using actual data from years 2007-2009.The Holt-Winters non-seasonal model gives the least error between actual value and predicted values. Using this model, we predict the total logistics values for years 2010-2015. Finally, using a combination of the qualitative analyses, the Holt-Winters model is modified to be more accurate and more valuable in logistics engineering financial forecast.