Wang Xiang , Li Yunxian , Qian Zhenwei , Shen Zeliang
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引用次数: 5
摘要
本文采用参数密度估计和非参数密度估计方法对云南省农作物产量分布进行了评价。采用赤池信息准则(Akaike Information Criterion, AIC)选择合适的作物产量分布。探索了极大似然方法来获得可靠的估计。此外，我们提出了一种基于作物产量预期损失的作物工程风险标准度量方法。利用1952-2009年云南省4种主要作物的汇总数据，对作物风险进行了分析。
Estimation of Crop Yield Distribution: Implication for Crop Engineering Risk
In this paper we use parametric and nonparametric density estimation procedures to evaluate crop yield distributions in Yunnan province. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is used to select a proper crop yield distribution. Maximum likelihood methods are explored to obtain reliable estimates. Furthermore, we propose a standard measure of crop engineering risk that is based on the expected loss of crop yield. Four major crops in Yunnan province based on pooled data over the period 1952-2009 are studied, and crop risks are analyzed.
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