Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society最新文献

{"title":"Anthropogenic Contribution to the Unprecedented 2022 Midsummer Extreme High-Temperature Event in Southern China","authors":"Chenyu Cao, Xiaodan Guan, Chao Li, Zhaokui Gao, Tonghui Gu","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0199.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0199.1","url":null,"abstract":"Anthropogenic influence contributed approximately 61% to the extreme high-temperature event in southern China in midsummer 2022, according to a dynamic adjustment methodology and supported by optimal fingerprinting analysis of CMIP6 models.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139664845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Measuring coupled fire-atmosphere dynamics: The California Fire Dynamics Experiment (CalFiDE)","authors":"Brian J. Carroll, W. Alan Brewer, Edward Strobach, Neil Lareau, Steven S. Brown, M. Miguel Valero, Adam Kochanski, Craig B. Clements, Ralph Kahn, Katherine T. Junghenn Noyes, Amanda Makowiecki, Maxwell W. Holloway, Michael Zucker, Kathleen Clough, Jack Drucker, Kristen Zuraski, Jeff Peischl, Brandi McCarty, Richard Marchbanks, Scott Sandberg, Sunil Baidar, Yelena L. Pichugina, Robert M. Banta, Siyuan Wang, Andrew Klofas, Braeden Winters, Tyler Salas","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0012.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0012.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The social, economic, and ecological impacts of wildfires are increasing over much of the U.S. and globally, partially due to changing climate and build-up of fuels from past forest management practices. This creates a need to improve coupled fire-atmosphere forecast models. However, model performance is difficult to evaluate due to scarcity of observations for many key fire-atmosphere interactions, including updrafts and plume injection height, plume entrainment processes, fire intensity and rate-of-spread, and plume chemistry. Intensive observations of such fire-atmosphere interactions during active wildfires are rare due to the logistical challenges and scales involved. The California Fire Dynamics Experiment (CalFiDE) was designed to address these observational needs, using Doppler lidars, high-resolution multispectral imaging, and in-situ air quality instruments on a NOAA Twin Otter research aircraft, and Doppler lidars, radar, and other instrumentation on multiple ground-based mobile platforms. Five wildfires were studied across northern California and southern Oregon over 16 flight days from 28 August to 25 September 2022, including a breadth of fire stages from large blow-up days to smoldering air quality observations. Missions were designed to optimize the observation of the spatial structure and temporal evolution of each fire from early afternoon until sunset during multiple consecutive days. The coordination of the mobile platforms enabled four-dimensional sampling strategies during CalFiDE that will improve understanding of fire-atmosphere dynamics, aiding in model development and prediction capability. Satellite observations contributed aerosol measurements and regional context. This article summarizes the scientific objectives, platforms and instruments deployed, coordinated sampling strategies, and presents first results.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139645199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"GeoXO: NOAA’s Future Geostationary Satellite System","authors":"Daniel T. Lindsey, Andrew K. Heidinger, Pamela C. Sullivan, Joel McCorkel, Timothy J. Schmit, Michelle Tomlinson, Ryan Vandermeulen, Gregory J. Frost, Shobha Kondragunta, Scott Rudlosky","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0048.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0048.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Geostationary Extended Observations, or GeoXO, is NOAA’s future geostationary satellite constellation, set to launch in the early 2030s and operate into the 2050s. Given changes to the Earth system, improvements in technology, and expanding needs of satellite data users, GeoXO will extend NOAA’s current observation suite by adding three new instruments and one new spacecraft. Improved versions of the imager and lightning mapper will again be placed on East and West satellites, where they will monitor severe storms, tropical cyclones, fires, and other hazards. They will be joined by an ocean color instrument designed for detection of harmful algal blooms, phytoplankton, chlorophyll-a, and other constituents. The third geostationary spacecraft will be placed in the center of the U.S. and will carry a hyperspectral infrared sounder, an atmospheric composition instrument, and potentially a partner payload. Radiances from the sounder will be assimilated into numerical weather prediction models to improve forecasts, and sounder-derived retrievals of vertical profiles of temperature and water vapor will allow forecasters to detect and track areas of enhanced instability. Retrievals of pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide and ozone from the new atmospheric composition instrument along with trace gas measurements from the sounder will be used to improve air quality monitoring, forecasts, and warnings in addition to climate monitoring. Once complete, the GeoXO constellation will contribute to an international “geo ring” of satellites that will be used for worldwide weather, oceans, climate, and air quality monitoring. This revolutionary new geostationary satellite constellation will provide critical observations for a changing Earth system.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"170 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139589540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cryosphere-hydrometeorology observations for a water tower unit on the Tibetan Plateau using the BeiDou-3 navigation satellite system","authors":"Ruishun Liu, Lei Wang, Zhongjing Wang, Xiuping Li, Deliang Chen, Jing Zhou, Jia Qi, Yuanwei Wang, Chenhao Chai, Guangpeng Wang, Haibang Xiao","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0001.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0001.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Life and civilization in arid regions depend on the availability of freshwater. Arid alpine river basins, where hydrological processes are highly sensitive to rapid warming, act as vital water towers for lowland oases. However, scientific understanding of precipitation variability and related cryosphere-hydrology processes is extremely limited because of the scarcity of in situ observations. The upper Danghe River Basin (UDB, ∼14,000 km2) is an arid and westerly- dominated basin on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and is the water source for the Dunhuang Oasis in China. We have established a comprehensive cryosphere-hydrometeorology observation network in the basin since 2014. At present, the network consists of 21 automatic rain gauges, 22 soil freeze-thaw monitoring stations, 4 automatic weather stations (AWS), and a 50-m gradient meteorological tower with an eddy covariance system. In particular, the 18 sites, located in remote areas without public networks, are equipped with new-generation BeiDou-3 communication terminals that enable the observations to be easily, safely, and reliably read and quality-controlled in near real-time from offices in the city or at home. This integrated observation network over the UDB that facilitates the monitoring of cryosphere- hydrology processes, land-atmosphere interactions, and local weather processes. In addition, the observations are helpful for the objective evaluation, and continual improvement, of hydrological models, satellite-retrieval products, and reanalysis datasets. Finally, the network is expected to promote a better understanding of the status and role of water towers in arid zones and to provide basic data support for the sustainable development of the Dunhuang Oasis and the Belt and Road.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139589563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhancing Global Food Security: Opportunities for the American Meteorological Society","authors":"Lauren Stuart, Mike Hobbins, Emily Niebuhr, Alex C. Ruane, Roger Pulwarty, Andrew Hoell, Wassila Thiaw, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Francisco Muñoz-Arriola, Molly Jahn, Michael Farrar","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-22-0106.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-22-0106.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Food security is a key pillar of environmental security yet remains one of the world’s greatest challenges. Its obverse, food insecurity, negatively impacts health and well-being, drives mass migration, and undermines both national security and global sustainable development. Ensuring food security is a delicate balance of myriad concerns within the atmospheric and earth sciences, agronomy and agriculture engineering, social sciences, economics, monitoring, and policymaking. A Food Security Presidential Session at the 2022 Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society’s (AMS) 2022 Annual Meeting brought together experts across disciplines to tackle issues at the nexus of weather, climate, and food security. The starkest takeaway was the realization that, despite its importance and clear roles for the atmospheric and climate sciences, food security has not been a focus for the AMS community. The aim of this paper is to build on the perspectives shared by this expert panel and to identify overlapping issues and key points of intersection between food security and AMS communities. We examine (1) the interactions between weather, climate and the food system and how they influence food security; (2) the time and spatial scales of food security decision support that match weather and climate phenomena; (3) the role of both providers and users of information as well as decision makers in improving research to operations for food security; and (4) the opportunities for the AMS community to address food security. We conclude that, moving forward, the AMS community is well-positioned to scale up its engagement across the global food system to address existing scientific needs and technology gaps to improve global food security.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"35 3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139552804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change contributions to increasing compound flooding risk in New York City","authors":"Ali Sarhadi, Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi, Kyle Mandli, Jeffrey Neal, Michael P. Wiper, Monika Feldmann, Kerry Emanuel","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0177.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0177.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Efforts to meaningfully quantify the changes in coastal compound surge and rainfall driven flooding hazard associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) in a warming climate have increased in recent years. Despite substantial progress, however, obtaining actionable details such as the spatial distribution and proximal causes of changing flooding hazard in cities remains a persistent challenge. Here, for the first time, physics-based hydrodynamic flood models driven by rainfall and storm surge simultaniously are used to estimate the magnitude and frequency of compound flooding events. We apply this to the particular case of New York City. We find that sea level rise (SLR) alone will increase the TC and ETC compound flooding hazard more significantly than changes in storm climatology as the climate warms. We also project that the return period of destructive Sandy-like compound flooding will increase by up to five times by the end of the century. Our results have strong implications for climate change adaptation in coastal communities.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139589562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying and Categorizing Bias in AI/ML for Earth Sciences","authors":"Amy McGovern, Ann Bostrom, Marie McGraw, Randy J. Chase, David John Gagne, Imme Ebert-Uphoff, Kate D. Musgrave, Andrea Schumacher","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0196.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0196.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Artificial Intelligence (AI) can be used to improve performance across a wide range of Earth System prediction tasks. As with any application of AI, it is important for AI to be developed in an ethical and responsible manner to minimize bias and other effects. In this work, we extend our previous work demonstrating how AI can go wrong with weather and climate applications by presenting a categorization of bias for AI in the Earth Sciences. This categorization can assist AI developers to identify potential biases that can affect their model throughout the AI development life-cycle. We highlight examples from a variety of Earth System prediction tasks of each category of bias.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139552785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cyclogenesis in the tropical Atlantic: First scientific highlights from the Clouds-Atmospheric Dynamics-Dust Interactions in West Africa (CADDIWA) field campaign","authors":"Cyrille Flamant, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Julien Delanoë, Marco Gaetani, Cédric Jamet, Christophe Lavaysse, Olivier Bock, Maurus Borne, Quitterie Cazenave, Pierre Coutris, Juan Cuesta, Laurent Menut, Clémantyne Aubry, Angela Benedetti, Pierre Bosser, Sophie Bounissou, Christophe Caudoux, Hélène Collomb, Thomas Donal, Guy Febvre, Thorsten Fehr, Andreas H. Fink, Paola Formenti, Nicolau Gomes Araujo, Peter Knippertz, Eric Lecuyer, Mateus Neves Andrade, Cédric Gacial Ngoungué Langué, Tanguy Jonville, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Azusa Takeishi","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0230.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0230.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract During the boreal summer, mesoscale convective systems generated over West Africa propagate westward and interact with African easterly waves, and dust plumes transported from the Sahel and Sahara by the African Easterly Jet. Once off West Africa, the vortices in the wake of these mesoscale convective systems evolve in a complex environment sometimes leading to the development of tropical storms and hurricanes, especially in September when sea surface temperatures are high. Numerical weather predictions of cyclogenesis downstream of West Africa remains a key challenge due to the incomplete understanding of the clouds-atmospheric dynamics-dust interactions that limit predictability. The primary objective of the Clouds-Atmospheric Dynamics-Dust Interactions in West Africa (CADDIWA) project is to improve our understanding of the relative contributions of the direct, semi-direct and indirect radiative effects of dust on the dynamics of tropical waves as well as the intensification of vortices in the wake of offshore mesoscale convective systems and their evolution into tropical storms over the North Atlantic. Airborne observations relevant to the assessment of such interactions (active remote sensing, in situ microphysics probes, among others) were made from 8 to 21 September 2021 in the tropical environment of Sal Island, Cape Verde. The environments of several tropical cyclones, including tropical storm Rose, were monitored and probed. The airborne measurements also serve the purpose of regional model evaluation and the validation of space-borne wind, aerosol and cloud products pertaining to satellite missions of the European Space Agency and EUMETSAT (including the Aeolus, EarthCARE and IASI missions).","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139553140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigation of precipitation process in the water vapor channel of the Yarlung Zsangbo Grand Canyon","authors":"Xuelong Chen, Xiangde Xu, Yaoming Ma, Gaili Wang, Deliang Chen, Dianbin Cao, Xin Xu, Qiang Zhang, Luhan Li, Yajing Liu, Liping Liu, Maoshan Li, Siqiong Luo, Xin Wang, Xie Hu","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0120.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0120.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Yarlung Zsangbo Grand Canyon (YGC) is an important pathway for water vapor transport from southern Asia to the Tibetan Plateau (TP). This area exhibits one of the highest frequencies of convective activity in China, and precipitation often induces natural disasters in local communities, which can dramatically affect their livelihoods. In addition, the produced precipitation gives rise to vast glaciers and large rivers around the YGC. In 2018, the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program tasked a research team to conduct an “investigation of the precipitation process in the water vapor channel of the Yarlung Zsangbo Grand Canyon (INVC)” in the southeastern TP. This team subsequently established a comprehensive observation system of land-air interaction, water vapor, clouds, and rainfall activity in the YGC. This paper introduces the developed observation system and summarizes the preliminary results obtained during the first two years of the project. Using this INVC observation network, herein, we focus on the development of rainfall events on the southeastern TP. This project also helps to monitor geohazards in the key area of the Sichuan- Tibet railway, which traverses the northern YGC. The observation datasets will benefit future research on mountain meteorology.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139552658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The 2022 Record-Breaking Heat Event over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River: The Role of Anthropogenic Forcing and Atmospheric Circulation","authors":"Dongqian Wang, Ying Sun, Ting Hu, Hong Yin","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0152.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0152.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The anthropogenic forcing and anomalous atmospheric circulation have increased the occurrence probability of 2022-like extreme heat by approximately 62.0 and 2.6 times, respectively.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139497884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}