未来一瞥:长期气候变化背景下的 2023 年海洋温度和海冰极端情况

IF 6.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Till Kuhlbrodt, Ranjini Swaminathan, Paulo Ceppi, Thomas Wilder
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要 2023 年,在 1982-2011 年每日时间序列的 4 西格玛包络线之外,我们看到北大西洋的高海面温度(SST)和南大洋的低海冰范围出现了非同寻常的极值。地球的全球净能量失衡(截至 2023 年 9 月的 12 个月)达到+1.9 W/m2,呈显著上升趋势,确保海洋进一步升温。然而,自 2020 年以来,北大西洋的区域辐射预算并没有显示出气溶胶负强迫的显著增加。自 1980 年以来,全球所有海盆顶部 100 米处的温度都在上升,而大西洋海盆自 2016 年以来则持续进一步升温,这可能是造成极端海温的原因之一。同样,海洋顶部 100 米的盐度近年来也在上升,特别是在大西洋海盆,此外,大约在 2015 年,南大洋海冰范围开始出现大幅负增长趋势。通过对未来气候和地球系统模式模拟的分析,我们发现 2023 年北大西洋的极端海温和南大洋的极端海冰范围位于全球地表-空气温度升温水平(GWL)为 1.5°C 时预期平均气候变化的边缘,而更接近全球地表-空气温度升温水平为 3.0°C 时的平均值。要评估未来几年类似事件的频率和影响,就必须了解这些极端事件的区域和全球驱动因素。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A glimpse into the future: The 2023 ocean temperature and sea-ice extremes in the context of longer-term climate change
Abstract In the year 2023, we have seen extraordinary extrema in high sea-surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and in low sea-ice extent in the Southern Ocean, outside the 4-sigma envelope of the 1982-2011 daily timeseries. Earth’s net global energy imbalance (12 months up to September 2023) amounts to +1.9 W/m2 as part of a remarkably large upward trend, ensuring further heating of the ocean. However, the regional radiation budget over the North Atlantic does not show signs of a suggested significant step increase from less negative aerosol forcing since 2020. While the temperature in the top 100 m of the global ocean has been rising in all basins since about 1980, specifically the Atlantic basin has continued to further heat up since 2016, potentially contributing to the extreme SST. Similarly, salinity in the top 100 m of the ocean has increased in recent years specifically in the Atlantic basin, and in addition in about 2015 a substantial negative trend for sea-ice extent in the Southern Ocean began. Analysing climate and Earth System model simulations of the future, we find that the extreme SST in the North Atlantic and the extreme in Southern Ocean sea-ice extent in 2023 lie at the fringe of the expected mean climate change for a global surface-air temperature warming level (GWL) of 1.5°C, and closer to the average at a 3.0°C GWL. Understanding the regional and global drivers of these extremes is indispensable for assessing frequency and impacts of similar events in the coming years.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
9.80
自引率
6.20%
发文量
231
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) is the flagship magazine of AMS and publishes articles of interest and significance for the weather, water, and climate community as well as news, editorials, and reviews for AMS members.
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