Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society最新文献

{"title":"Predicting September Arctic Sea Ice: A Multi-Model Seasonal Skill Comparison","authors":"Mitchell Bushuk, Sahara Ali, David A. Bailey, Qing Bao, Lauriane Batté, Uma S. Bhatt, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Ed Blockley, Gavin Cawley, Junhwa Chi, François Counillon, Philippe Goulet Coulombe, Richard I. Cullather, Francis X. Diebold, Arlan Dirkson, Eleftheria Exarchou, Maximilian Göbel, William Gregory, Virginie Guemas, Lawrence Hamilton, Bian He, Sean Horvath, Monica Ionita, Jennifer E. Kay, Eliot Kim, Noriaki Kimura, Dmitri Kondrashov, Zachary M. Labe, WooSung Lee, Younjoo J. Lee, Cuihua Li, Xuewei Li, Yongcheng Lin, Yanyun Liu, Wieslaw Maslowski, François Massonnet, Walter N. Meier, William J. Merryfield, Hannah Myint, Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Alek Petty, Fangli Qiao, David Schröder, Axel Schweiger, Qi Shu, Michael Sigmond, Michael Steele, Julienne Stroeve, Nico Sun, Steffen Tietsche, Michel Tsamados, Keguang Wang, Jianwu Wang, Wanqiu Wang, Yiguo Wang, Yun Wang, James Williams, Qinghua Yang, Xiaojun Yuan, Jinlun Zhang, Yongfei Zhang","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0163.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0163.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study quantifies the state-of-the-art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multi-model dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–2020 for predictions of Pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on June 1, July 1, August 1, and September 1. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended Pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multi-model median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to Pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and Central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for Pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least three months in advance.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140636671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Tornado Archive: Compiling and Visualizing a Worldwide, Digitized Tornado Database","authors":"Malcolm Maas, Timothy Supinie, Andrew Berrington, Samuel Emmerson, Ava Aidala, Michael Gavan","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0123.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0123.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Given inconsistencies in reporting methods and general lack of documentation, the creation of a unified tornado database across the world has been an elusive target for severe weather climatology purposes and historical interest. Previous online tornado documentation has also often been inconsistent or is now defunct. Many individual countries or continents maintain tornado information through either government-sponsored or independent organizations. The Tornado Archive was developed to create a first-of-its-kind digitized synthesis of worldwide tornado documentation, using the most complete sources of information available for regions known to be tornadically active. Spatial and temporal trends in tornado occurrence and reporting can be visualized through an interactive user interface with a variety of filtering methods and environmental reanalysis datasets, such as ERA5. The additional data introduced using Thomas Grazulis’ Significant Tornadoes may be beneficial for tornado climatology studies over the United States. The Tornado Archive is also intended to be a collaborative exercise, with clear data attribution and open avenues for augmentation, and the creation of a common data model to store the tornado information will assist in maintaining and updating the database. In this work, we document the methods necessary for creating the Tornado Archive database, provide broader climatological analysis of spatiotemporal patterns in tornado occurrence, and outline potential use cases for the data. We also highlight its key limitations, and emphasize the need for further international standardization of tornado documentation.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140637411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Making Progress on the Operational Alerting of El Niño and La Niña in a Warming World","authors":"Matthew C. Wheeler, Hanh Nguyen, Chris Lucas, Zhi-Weng Chua, Simon Grainger, David A. Jones, Michelle L. L'Heureux, Ben Noll, Tristan Meyers, Nicolas C. Fauchereau, Alexandre Peltier, Thea Turkington, Hyung-Jin Kim, Takafumi Umeda","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-24-0095.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0095.1","url":null,"abstract":"\"Making Progress on the Operational Alerting of El Niño and La Niña in a Warming World\" published on 22 Apr 2024 by American Meteorological Society.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"96 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140636933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (2010–2022): A Decade of Transition from Track Forecasts to Impact Forecasts","authors":"Hui Yu, Guomin Chen, Wai-Kin Wong, Jonathan L. Vigh, Chi-kin Pan, Xiaoqin Lu, Jun A. Zhang, Jie Tang, Kun Zhao, Peiyan Chen, Zifeng Yu, Mengqi Yang, Jason Dunion, Zheqing Fang, Xiaotu Lei, Ajit Tyagi, Lianshou Chen","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0085.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0085.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP) (2010–2022) was an international cooperative scientific project conducted under the framework of the WMO. The primary objectives of the TLFDP were to enhance the capability of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasters, and support related decision-makers in effective utilization of the most advanced forecasting techniques for the ultimate purpose of reducing and preventing disasters associated with TC landfall. Forty agencies/organizations/projects globally participated in the activities of the TLFDP following its inception in 2010, although the primary focus was on landfalling TCs in the western North Pacific. The TLFDP facilitated collaborations and workshops that realized notable achievements in four key areas: 1) the collection, production, and sharing of TC data; 2) the development and application of TC forecast verification metrics; 3) research on TC forecast skill; and 4) development of new techniques for TC forecasting. An obvious outcome was the shift from prediction of TC features, including track and intensity, toward prediction of TC impacts with more probabilistic conception. The final years of the project also promoted increasing application of artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques in various techniques for analysis and forecasting of TCs. Although the TLFDP ended in 2022, its core activities have continued to be extended through new WMO projects and regional cooperative initiatives.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140629490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Supercell Tornadogenesis: Recent Progress in our State of Understanding","authors":"Jannick Fischer, Johannes M. L. Dahl, Brice E. Coffer, Jana Lesak Houser, Paul M. Markowski, Matthew D. Parker, Christopher C. Weiss, Alex Schueth","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0031.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0031.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Over the last decade, supercell simulations and observations with ever increasing resolution have provided new insights into the vortex-scale processes of tornado formation. This article incorporates these and other recent findings into the existing three-step model by adding an additional fourth stage. The goal is to provide an updated and clear picture of the physical processes occurring during tornadogenesis. Specifically, we emphasize the importance of the low-level wind shear and mesocyclone for tornado potential, the organization and interaction of relatively small-scale pre-tornadic vertical vorticity maxima, and the transition to a tornado-characteristic flow. Based on these insights, guiding research questions are formulated for the decade ahead.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140624801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Saltzman-Lorenz Exchange in 1961: Bridge to Chaos Theory","authors":"John M. Lewis, S. Lakshmivarahan","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0157.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0157.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A single-day meeting between two theoretical meteorologists took place in 1961 at the Travelers Research Center (TRC) in Hartford, Connecticut. The two scientists were Barry Saltzman and Edward Lorenz, former proteges of V. P. Starr at MIT. Several years before this meeting, Lorenz discovered the following profound result: extended-range weather forecasting was not feasible in the presence of slight errors in initial conditions. The model used was the geostrophic form of a two-level baroclinic model with twelve spectral variables. These results were presented a year earlier at the First Symposium on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) in Tokyo, Japan, and met with some skepticism from the NWP elite, dynamical meteorologists, and pioneers in operational NWP. Lorenz held faint hope that Saltzman’s recently developed model of Rayleigh- Bénard convection would produce the profound result found earlier. One of the numerical experiments executed that eventful day with Saltzman’s 7-mode truncated spectral model produced an unexpected result: inability of the model’s 7 variables to settle down and approach a steady state. This occurred when the key parameter, the Rayleigh number, assumed an especially large value, one associated with turbulent convection. And further experimentation with the case delivered the sought-after result that Lorenz had found earlier, and now convincingly found with a simpler model. It built the bridge to chaos theory. The pathway to this exceptional result is explored by revisiting Saltzman’s and Lorenz’s mentorship under V. P. Starr, the authors’ interview with Lorenz in 2002 that complements information in Lorenz’s scientific autobiography, and the authors’ published perspective on Salzman’s 7-mode model.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"127 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140613656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Soil Moisture Information Improves Drought Risk Protection Provided by the USDA Livestock Forage Disaster Program","authors":"Erik S Krueger, Tyson E Ochsner, B Wade Brorsen","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0087.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0087.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The USDA Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) offers financial assistance to farmers and ranchers with grazed forage losses caused by fire or drought. Payments for drought losses are based on the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), which is designed to integrate meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, ecological, and socioeconomic drought. Because soil moisture deficit is a more specific measure of agricultural drought, we hypothesized that basing LFP payments on soil moisture observations could better reduce producers’ risk. Therefore, our objectives were to (1) quantify relationships of forage yield with USDM-based LFP payment multipliers and with in situ soil moisture, (2) develop an alternative LFP payment multiplier structure based on in situ soil moisture, and (3) quantify risk reduction using the current and alternative payment structures. We focused on Oklahoma, USA, which has led the nation in LFP payments received and has >25 years of in situ soil moisture observations statewide. Using non-alfalfa hay yield as a surrogate for forage production, we found that LFP payment multiplier values and soil moisture anomaly were each related to yield, and soil moisture anomaly explained 54% of yield variability. However, the USDM-based LFP payment structure sometimes resulted in payments for above average yield, and higher payments did not always correspond with greater yield losses. We developed an alternative soil moisture-based payment structure that reduced financial risk by >20% compared with the current USDM-based structure. Our study identifies an improved LFP payment structure for Oklahoma that can be evaluated and refined in other states or nationwide using other soil moisture data sources.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Are atmospheric models too cold in the mountains? The state of science and insights from the SAIL field campaign","authors":"William Rudisill, Alan Rhoades, Zexuan Xu, Daniel R. Feldman","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0082.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0082.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Mountains play an outsized role for water resource availability, and the amount and timing of water they provide depends strongly on temperature. To that end, we ask: how well are atmospheric models capturing mountain temperatures? We synthesize results showing that high resolution, regionally relevant climate models produce two-meter air temperatures (T2m) colder than what is observed (a “cold bias”), particularly in snow-covered mid-latitude mountain ranges during winter. We find common cold biases in 44 studies across global mountain ranges, including single-model and multi-model ensembles. We explore the factors driving these biases and examine the physical mechanisms, data limitations, and observational uncertainties behind T2m. Our analysis suggests that the biases are genuine and not due to observation sparsity or resolution mismatches. Cold biases occur primarily on mountain peaks and ridges, whereas valleys are often warm biased. Our literature review suggests that increasing model resolution does not clearly mitigate the bias. By analyzing data from the SAIL field campaign in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, we test various hypotheses related to cold biases, and find that local wind circulations, longwave radiation, and surface-layer parameterizations contribute to the T2m biases in this particular location. We conclude by emphasizing the value of coordinated model evaluation and development efforts in heavily instrumented mountain locations for addressing the root cause(s) of T2m biases and improving predictive understanding of mountain climates.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"300 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140601215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Linking ocean mixing and overturning circulation","authors":"Hans Burchard, Matthew Alford, Manita Chouksey, Giovanni Dematteis, Carsten Eden, Isabelle Giddy, Knut Klingbeil, Arnaud Le Boyer, Dirk Olbers, Julie Pietrzak, Friederike Pollmann, Kurt Polzin, Fabien Roquet, Pablo Sebastia Saez, Sebastiaan Swart, Lars Umlauf, Gunnar Voet, Bethan Wynne-Cattanach","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-24-0082.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0082.1","url":null,"abstract":"\"Linking ocean mixing and overturning circulation\" published on 08 Apr 2024 by American Meteorological Society.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"115 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140601346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rapidly Developing a Community and Evidence Based Heat Action Plan","authors":"Christopher K. Uejio, Jane Gilbert, Yoonjung Ahn, Ludovica Martella, Leiqiu Hu, Julia Marturano","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0055.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0055.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Extreme heat contributes to 8,000 to 12,000 excess U.S. deaths per year. Partly due to increasing summer temperatures and a renewed focus on environmental justice, local governments started new initiatives to manage and adapt to extreme heat. For example, Miami-Dade County, Florida, U.S., appointed Jane Gilbert as the world’s first Chief Heat Officer. This manuscript summarizes Miami- Dade County’s preliminary efforts to build local evidence, engage the community, and rapidly respond to extreme heat. The manuscript’s goal is to expedite the translation of existing tools into mainstream extreme heat, health, and equity planning. The study generated local evidence to identify the places and periods of time with elevated heat related illness using a statistical vulnerability and time series analysis, respectively. The places with the highest severe heat-related illness rates had hotter land surface temperatures and/or higher proportions of people who were outdoor workers, indigenous, living in poverty or mobile homes, and households with children. “Everyday” summer conditions instead of rare heatwaves increase the risk of a heat related death. The Chief Heat Officer convened workshops that engaged 298 unique community members on six cross-sectoral heat topics. Key recommendations included: increasing multi-sectoral heat monitoring and risk communication, building more affordable housing, preserving and expanding greenspace, and creating heat resilience hubs. The activities culminated in a Heat Action Plan, which was completed in less than two years from the receipt of project funding.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}