Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society最新文献

{"title":"Leveraging Collaborative Partnerships to Enhance NWS and Emergency Management Communications Through Exercising","authors":"David Hogg, Richard Smith, Jennifer Thompson, Ryan Bunker, Rachael Huey, Makenzie J. Krocak","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0294.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0294.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Tabletop exercises examining weather-related hazards are not uncommon but are often built around somewhat generic scenarios that only touch on the meteorological communication environment at a very shallow level. A recent exercise in central Oklahoma sought to change that. A local emergency manager, personnel from a National Weather Service (NWS) forecast office, and a severe weather researcher with a background in exercise design and facilitation worked together to create and deliver a realistic severe weather simulation. Exercise participants were exposed to detailed forecast information via NWSChat - a dedicated communication tool used to connect NWS forecasters, emergency managers, and media members for real-time information sharing. NWS forecasters were able to both actively play in the exercise due to the use of NWSChat, as well as observe how local decision makers interpreted and utilized the IDSS graphics and short-term forecast updates. The collaborative approach of developing a detailed scenario with numerous real-world Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) graphics, along with the use of NWSChat for real-time delivery, resulted in overwhelmingly positive feedback from the participants. The local emergency management office identified numerous areas for improvement in communicating real-time forecast information across their jurisdiction, along with gaps in current plans and resources. Meanwhile, the NWS forecast office had the opportunity to experiment with using the new NWSChat platform in a high-impact severe weather environment before a real-world event took place. Forecasters also gained insight into current IDSS graphic interpretation, noting areas for improved messaging to end users, such as adding storm motion to existing severe weather graphics.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-Agency Ensemble Forecast of Wildfire Air Quality in the United States: Toward Community Consensus of Early Warning","authors":"Yunyao Li, Daniel Tong, Peewara Makkaroon, Timothy DelSole, Youhua Tang, Patrick Campbell, Barry Baker, Mark Cohen, Anton Darmenov, Ravan Ahmadov, Eric James, Edward Hyer, Peng Xian","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0208.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0208.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Wildfires pose increasing risks to human health and properties in North America. Due to large uncertainties in fire emission, transport, and chemical transformation, it remains challenging to accurately predict air quality during wildfire events, hindering our collective capability to issue effective early warnings to protect public health and welfare. Here we present a new real-time Hazardous Air Quality Ensemble System (HAQES) by leveraging various wildfire smoke forecasts from three U.S. federal agencies (NOAA, NASA, and Navy). Compared to individual models, the HAQES ensemble forecast significantly enhances forecast accuracy. To further enhance forecasting performance, a weighted ensemble forecast approach was introduced and tested. Compared to the unweighted ensemble mean, the multilinear regression weighted ensemble reduced fractional bias by 34% in the major fire regions, false alarm rate by 72%, and increased hit rate by 17%. Finally, we improved the weighted ensemble using quantile regression and weighted regression methods to enhance the forecast of extreme air quality events. The advanced weighted ensemble increased the PM2.5 exceedance hit rate by 55% compared to the ensemble mean. Our findings provide insights into the development of advanced ensemble forecast methods for wildfire air quality, offering a practical way to enhance decision-making support to protect public health.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"90 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Towards a South American High Impact Weather Reports Database","authors":"Paola Salio, Hernán Bechis, Bruno Z. Ribeiro, Ernani de Lima Nascimento, Vito Galligani, Fernando Garcia, Lucas Alvarenga, Maria de los Milagros Alvarez Imaz, Daiana Marlene Baissac, María Florencia Barle, Cristian Bastías-Curivil, Marcos Benedicto, Maite Cancelada, Izabelly Carvalho da Costa, Daniela D’Amen, Ramon de Elia, David Eduardo Diaz, Anthony Duarte Páez, Sergio González, Vitor Goede, Julián Goñi, Agustín Granato, Murilo Machado Lopes, Matias Mederos, Matias Menalled, Romina Mezher, Eduardo José Mingo Vega, María Gabriela Nicora, Lucía Pini, Roberto Rondanelli, Juan Jose Ruiz, Nestor Santayana, Laís Santos, Guilherme Schild, Inés Simone, Raul Valenzuela, Yasmin Romina Velazquez, Luciano Vidal, Constanza Inés Villagrán Asiares","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0063.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0063.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Despite Southern South America being recognized as a hotspot for deep convective storms, little is known about the socio-environmental impacts of high impact weather (HIW) events. Although there have been past efforts to collect severe weather reports in the region, they have been highly fragmented among and within countries, sharing no common protocol, and limited to a particular phenomenon, a very specific region or a short period of time. There is a pressing need for a more comprehensive understanding of the present risks linked to HIW events, specifically deep convective storms, on a global scale as well as their variability and potential future evolution in the context of climate change. A database of high-quality and systematic HIW reports and associated socio-environmental impacts is essential to understand the regional atmospheric conditions leading to hazardous weather, to quantify its predictability and to build robust early warning systems. To tackle this problem and following successful initiatives in other regions of the world, researchers, national weather service members, and weather enthusiasts from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay have embarked on a multi-national collaboration to generate a standardized database of reports of HIW events principally associated with convective storms and their socio-environmental impacts in South America. The goal of this paper is to describe this unprecedented initiative over the region, to summarize first results and to discuss the potential applications of this collaboration.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sublimation of Snow","authors":"Jessica D. Lundquist, Julie Vano, Ethan Gutmann, Daniel Hogan, Eli Schwat, Michael Haugeneder, Emilio Mateo, Steve Oncley, Chris Roden, Elise Osenga, Liz Carver","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0191.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0191.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Snow is a vital part of water resources, and sublimation may remove 10% to 90% of snowfall from the system. To improve our understanding of the physics that govern sublimation rates, as well as how those rates might change with the climate, we deployed an array of four towers with over 100 instruments from NCAR’s Integrated Surface Flux System from November 2022 to June 2023 in the East River Watershed, Colorado, in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere and Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) campaigns. Mass balance observations, snow pits, particle flux sensors, and terrestrial lidar scans of the evolving snowfield demonstrated how blowing snow influences sublimation rates, which we quantified with latent heat fluxes measured by eddy covariance systems at heights 1 to 20 m above the snow surface. Detailed temperature profiles at finer resolutions highlighted the role of the stable boundary layer. Four-stream radiometers indicated the important role of changing albedo in the energy balance and its relationship to water vapor losses. Collectively, these observations span scales from seconds to seasons, from boundary layer turbulence to valley-circulation to mesoscale meteorology. We describe the field campaign, highlights in the observations, and outreach and education products we are creating to facilitate cross-disciplinary dialogue and convey relevant findings to those seeking to better understand Colorado River snow and streamflow.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140601305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Gathering users and developers to shape together the next-generation ocean reanalyses: Ocean reanalyses workshop of the European Copernicus Marine Service","authors":"Chunxue Yang, Romain Bourdallé-Badie, Marie Drevillon, Dillon Amaya, Lotfi Aouf, Ali Aydogdu, Benjamin Barton, Mike Bell, Tim Boyer, Anouk Blauw, James Carton, Tony Candela, Gianpiero Cossarini, Tomasz Dabrowski, Eric de Boisseson, Lee de Mora, Ronan Fablet, Gaël Forget, Yosuke Fujii, Gilles Garric, Valentina Giunta, Peter Salamon, Hans Hersbach, Mélanie Juza, Julien Le Sommer, Matthew Martin, Ronan McAdam, Melisa Menendez Garcia, Joao Morim, Dario Nicolì, Antonio Reppucci, Annette Samuelsen, Raphaëlle Sauzède, Laura Slivinski, Damien Specq, Andrea Storto, Laura Tuomi, Luc Vandenbulcke, Roland Aznar, Jonathan Beuvier, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Valeria Di Biagio, Romain Escudier, Rianne Giesen, Eric Greiner, Karen Guihou, Vasily Korabel, Julien Lamouroux, Stephane Law Chune, Jean- Michel Lellouche, Bruno Levier, Leonardo Lima, Antoine Mangin, Michael Mayer, Angelique Melet, Pietro Miraglio, Charikleia Oikonomou, Julia Pfeffer, Richard Renshaw, Ida Ringgaard, Sulian Thual, Olivier Titaud, Marina Tonani, Simon van Gennip, Karina von Schuckmann, Yann Drillet, Pierre-Yves Le Traon","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-24-0034.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0034.1","url":null,"abstract":"\"Gathering users and developers to shape together the next-generation ocean reanalyses: Ocean reanalyses workshop of the European Copernicus Marine Service\" published on 01 Apr 2024 by American Meteorological Society.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Making Social Science Actionable for the NWS: The Brief Vulnerability Overview Tool (BVOT)","authors":"Jack R. Friedman, Daphne S. LaDue, Elizabeth H. Hurst, Michelle E. Saunders, Alex N. Marmo","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0042.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0042.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper provides an introduction to a new tool that is designed to provide operationally useful vulnerability information to National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecasting Offices (WFOs). The Brief Vulnerability Overview Tool (BVOT) is a shapefile containing local known, spatially specific, and weather hazard-related vulnerabilities in a format that is easily integrated into the existing forecasting, warning, and decision support responsibilities and tasks of NWS WFO meteorologists. The methods for gathering vulnerability data and then building a BVOT for a WFO leverages and strengthens the relationships that NWS WFOs already have with their local emergency managers (EMs) and core partners to work together to identify operationally useful, local vulnerability knowledge. The BVOT is populated with discrete, known vulnerabilities to provide NWS meteorologists spatial-situational awareness of those people, places, and things of greatest concern to their core partners. Crucially, the BVOT is a sub-sample of all potential vulnerabilities; its primary purpose is to make meteorologists aware of those weather hazard-specific vulnerabilities that, as we posed to them, “keep them awake at night.” Here we describe the development of the BVOT as a social science-informed operational tool; how the BVOT methods have evolved and how it can be integrated into the culture of the NWS as a tool for building and maintaining relationships with partners; and how the BVOT is designed to be used and its impact on operational decision making as observed in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"300 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advances in the Use of Global Navigation Satellite System Polarimetric Radio Occultation Measurements for NWP and Weather Applications","authors":"F. Joseph Turk, Estel Cardellach, Manuel de la Torre-Juárez, Ramon Padullés, Kuo-Nung Wang, Chi O. Ao, Terence Kubar, Michael Murphy, J. David Neelin, Todd Emmenegger, Dong Wu, Vu Nguyen, E. Robert Kursinki, Dallas Masters, Pierre Kirstetter, Lidia Cucurull, Katrin Lonitz","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-24-0050.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0050.1","url":null,"abstract":"\"Advances in the Use of Global Navigation Satellite System Polarimetric Radio Occultation Measurements for NWP and Weather Applications\" published on 01 Apr 2024 by American Meteorological Society.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140600711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Providing better support for entrepreneurial activities in the weather, water, and climate community","authors":"Keith L. Seitter, Emma Tipton, Paul A.T. Higgins","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0301.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0301.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract There has been an increase in entrepreneurial activity within the weather, water, and climate (WWC) community over the past decade, with the potential for much more as artificial intelligence/machine learning techniques continue to develop and as new opportunities arise across the weather, climate services, and ocean services enterprises. Despite indications of recent growth, this study reports on key challenges that are limiting the community’s ability to achieve the full potential of commercialization of new WWC products and services. Most of these challenges are related to the preparation of those in the WWC community for jobs in the private sector in general, and entrepreneurial activities in particular. These results extend and build upon the work of others who have reported on shortcomings in the preparation of students for positions in the private sector, with this study showing that deficits in preparation and awareness of available resources affect potential entrepreneurs well into their career — most researchers are unaware of the resources available to them. Based on a synthesis of input from successful WWC entrepreneurs, many of the challenges could be greatly reduced by relatively minor adjustments to curriculums at universities and through new programs that could be offered by scientific and professional societies to help potential entrepreneurs better take advantage of existing resources as they spin up a new business.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140315568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Routine Climate Monitoring in the State of Hawai‘i: Establishment of State Climate Divisions","authors":"Xiao Luo, Abby G. Frazier, Henry F. Diaz, Ryan Longman, Thomas W. Giambelluca","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-23-0236.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0236.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Hawaiian Islands have some of the most spatially diverse rainfall patterns on earth, affected by prevailing trade winds, midlatitude disturbances, tropical cyclones, and complex island topography. However, it is the only state in the U.S. that does not have assigned climate divisions (boundaries defining climatically homogeneous areas), which excludes it from many national climate analyses. This study establishes, for the first time, official climate divisions for the State of Hawai‘i using cluster analysis applied to monthly gridded rainfall data from 1990 to 2019. Twelve climate divisions have been identified: two divisions were found each for the islands of Kaua‘i (Leeward Kaua‘i and Windward Kaua‘i), O‘ahu (Waianae and Ko‘olau), and Maui County (Leeward Maui Nui and Windward Maui Nui), and six divisions were identified for Hawai‘i Island (Leeward Kohala, Windward Kohala, Kona, Hawai‘i Mauka, Ka‘u, and Hilo). The climate divisions were validated using a statewide area-weighted division-average rainfall index which successfully captured the annual cycle and interannual rainfall variations in the statewide average rainfall series. Distinct rainfall seasonality features and interannual/decadal variability are found among the different divisions; Leeward Maui Nui, Leeward Kaua‘i, Kona, and Hawai‘i Mauka displayed the most significant rainfall seasonality. The western Hawai‘i Island divisions show the most significant long-term decreasing trends in annual rainfall during the past 100 years (ranging from -2.5% to -5.0% per decade). With these climate divisions now available, Hawai‘i will have access to numerous operational climate analyses that will greatly improve climatic research, monitoring, education and outreach, as well as forecasting applications.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"423 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140170958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Perspectives on Cloud Prediction, Post-Processing, and Verification for DoD Applications","authors":"Erica K. Dolinar, Jason E. Nachamkin","doi":"10.1175/bams-d-24-0077.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0077.1","url":null,"abstract":"\"Perspectives on Cloud Prediction, Post-Processing, and Verification for DoD Applications\" published on 15 Mar 2024 by American Meteorological Society.","PeriodicalId":9464,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society","volume":"87 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140153612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}