Bulletin of Mathematical Biology最新文献

{"title":"Forecasting and Predicting Stochastic Agent-Based Model Data with Biologically-Informed Neural Networks.","authors":"John T Nardini","doi":"10.1007/s11538-024-01357-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01357-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Collective migration is an important component of many biological processes, including wound healing, tumorigenesis, and embryo development. Spatial agent-based models (ABMs) are often used to model collective migration, but it is challenging to thoroughly predict these models' behavior throughout parameter space due to their random and computationally intensive nature. Modelers often coarse-grain ABM rules into mean-field differential equation (DE) models. While these DE models are fast to simulate, they suffer from poor (or even ill-posed) ABM predictions in some regions of parameter space. In this work, we describe how biologically-informed neural networks (BINNs) can be trained to learn interpretable BINN-guided DE models capable of accurately predicting ABM behavior. In particular, we show that BINN-guided partial DE (PDE) simulations can (1) forecast future spatial ABM data not seen during model training, and (2) predict ABM data at previously-unexplored parameter values. This latter task is achieved by combining BINN-guided PDE simulations with multivariate interpolation. We demonstrate our approach using three case study ABMs of collective migration that imitate cell biology experiments and find that BINN-guided PDEs accurately forecast and predict ABM data with a one-compartment PDE when the mean-field PDE is ill-posed or requires two compartments. This work suggests that BINN-guided PDEs allow modelers to efficiently explore parameter space, which may enable data-driven tasks for ABMs, such as estimating parameters from experimental data. All code and data from our study is available at https://github.com/johnnardini/Forecasting_predicting_ABMs .</p>","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142280562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mathematical Modeling of Mating Probability and Fertile Egg Production in Helminth Parasites.","authors":"Gonzalo Maximiliano Lopez, Juan Pablo Aparicio","doi":"10.1007/s11538-024-01356-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01356-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this work, we obtained a general formulation for the mating probability and fertile egg production in helminth parasites, focusing on the reproductive behavior of polygamous parasites and its implications for transmission dynamics. By exploring various reproductive variables in parasites with density-dependent fecundity, such as helminth parasites, we departed from the traditional assumptions of Poisson and negative binomial distributions to adopt an arbitrary distribution model. Our analysis considered critical factors such as mating probability, fertile egg production, and the distribution of female and male parasites among hosts, whether they are distributed together or separately. We show that the distribution of parasites within hosts significantly influences transmission dynamics, with implications for parasite persistence and, therefore, with implications in parasite control. Using statistical models and empirical data from Monte Carlo simulations, we provide insights into the complex interplay of reproductive variables in helminth parasites, enhancing our understanding of parasite dynamics and the transmission of parasitic diseases.</p>","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142280564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Cells Stay Together: A Mechanism for Maintenance of a Robust Cluster Explored by Local and Non-local Continuum Models.","authors":"Andreas Buttenschön, Shona Sinclair, Leah Edelstein-Keshet","doi":"10.1007/s11538-024-01355-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01355-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Formation of organs and specialized tissues in embryonic development requires migration of cells to specific targets. In some instances, such cells migrate as a robust cluster. We here explore a recent local approximation of non-local continuum models by Falcó et al. (SIAM J Appl Math 84:17-42, 2023). We apply their theoretical results by specifying biologically-based cell-cell interactions, showing how such cell communication results in an effective attraction-repulsion Morse potential. We then explore the clustering instability, the existence and size of the cluster, and its stability. For attractant-repellent chemotaxis, we derive an explicit condition on cell and chemical properties that guarantee the existence of robust clusters. We also extend their work by investigating the accuracy of the local approximation relative to the full non-local model.</p>","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142280563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Relational Persistent Homology for Multispecies Data with Application to the Tumor Microenvironment","authors":"Bernadette J. Stolz, Jagdeep Dhesi, Joshua A. Bull, Heather A. Harrington, Helen M. Byrne, Iris H. R. Yoon","doi":"10.1007/s11538-024-01353-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01353-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Topological data analysis (TDA) is an active field of mathematics for quantifying shape in complex data. Standard methods in TDA such as persistent homology (PH) are typically focused on the analysis of data consisting of a single entity (e.g., cells or molecular species). However, state-of-the-art data collection techniques now generate exquisitely detailed multispecies data, prompting a need for methods that can examine and quantify the relations among them. Such heterogeneous data types arise in many contexts, ranging from biomedical imaging, geospatial analysis, to species ecology. Here, we propose two methods for encoding spatial relations among different data types that are based on Dowker complexes and Witness complexes. We apply the methods to synthetic multispecies data of a tumor microenvironment and analyze topological features that capture relations between different cell types, e.g., blood vessels, macrophages, tumor cells, and necrotic cells. We demonstrate that relational topological features can extract biological insight, including the dominant immune cell phenotype (an important predictor of patient prognosis) and the parameter regimes of a data-generating model. The methods provide a quantitative perspective on the relational analysis of multispecies spatial data, overcome the limits of traditional PH, and are readily computable.</p>","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142259014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revisiting Fishery Sustainability Targets","authors":"Vincent Cattoni, Leah F. South, David J. Warne, Carl Boettiger, Bhavya Thakran, Matthew H. Holden","doi":"10.1007/s11538-024-01352-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01352-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Density-dependent population dynamic models strongly influence many of the world’s most important harvest policies. Nearly all classic models (e.g. Beverton-Holt and Ricker) recommend that managers maintain a population size of roughly 40–50 percent of carrying capacity to maximize sustainable harvest, no matter the species’ population growth rate. Such insights are the foundational logic behind most sustainability targets and biomass reference points for fisheries. However, a simple, less-commonly used model, called the Hockey-Stick model, yields very different recommendations. We show that the optimal population size to maintain in this model, as a proportion of carrying capacity, is one over the population growth rate. This leads to more conservative optimal harvest policies for slow-growing species, compared to other models, if all models use the same growth rate and carrying capacity values. However, parameters typically are not fixed; they are estimated after model-fitting. If the Hockey-Stick model leads to lower estimates of carrying capacity than other models, then the Hockey-Stick policy could yield lower absolute population size targets in practice. Therefore, to better understand the population size targets that may be recommended across real fisheries, we fit the Hockey-Stick, Ricker and Beverton-Holt models to population time series data across 284 fished species from the RAM Stock Assessment database. We found that the Hockey-Stick model usually recommended fisheries maintain population sizes higher than all other models (in 69–81% of the data sets). Furthermore, in 77% of the datasets, the Hockey-Stick model recommended an optimal population target even higher than 60% of carrying capacity (a widely used target, thought to be conservative). However, there was considerable uncertainty in the model fitting. While Beverton-Holt fit several of the data sets best, Hockey-Stick also frequently fit similarly well. In general, the best-fitting model rarely had overwhelming support (a model probability of greater than 95% was achieved in less than five percent of the datasets). A computational experiment, where time series data were simulated from all three models, revealed that Beverton-Holt often fit best even when it was not the true model, suggesting that fisheries data are likely too small and too noisy to resolve uncertainties in the functional forms of density-dependent growth. Therefore, sustainability targets may warrant revisiting, especially for slow-growing species.</p>","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142259325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach for Embryonic Astrocyte Migration Model Reduction","authors":"Tracy L. Stepien","doi":"10.1007/s11538-024-01354-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01354-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>During embryonic development of the retina of the eye, astrocytes, a type of glial cell, migrate over the retinal surface and form a dynamic mesh. This mesh then serves as scaffolding for blood vessels to form the retinal vasculature network that supplies oxygen and nutrients to the inner portion of the retina. Astrocyte spreading proceeds in a radially symmetric manner over the retinal surface. Additionally, astrocytes mature from astrocyte precursor cells (APCs) to immature perinatal astrocytes (IPAs) during this embryonic stage. We extend a previously-developed continuum model that describes tension-driven migration and oxygen and growth factor influenced proliferation and differentiation. Comparing numerical simulations to experimental data, we identify model equation components that can be removed via model reduction using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Our results verify experimental studies indicating that the choroid oxygen supply plays a negligible role in promoting differentiation of APCs into IPAs and in promoting IPA proliferation, and the hyaloid artery oxygen supply and APC apoptosis play negligible roles in astrocyte spreading and differentiation.</p>","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142217420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical Mobility of Multicellular Colonies of Flagellated Swimming Cells.","authors":"Yonatan Ashenafi, Peter R Kramer","doi":"10.1007/s11538-024-01351-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01351-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We study the stochastic hydrodynamics of colonies of flagellated swimming cells, typified by multicellular choanoflagellates, which can form both rosette and chainlike shapes. The objective is to link cell-scale dynamics to colony-scale dynamics for various colonial morphologies. Via autoregressive stochastic models for the cycle-averaged flagellar force dynamics and statistical models for demographic cell-to-cell variability in flagellar properties and placement, we derive effective transport properties of the colonies, including cell-to-cell variability. We provide the most quantitative detail on disclike geometries to model rosettes, but also present formulas for the dynamics of general planar colony morphologies, which includes planar chain-like configurations.</p>","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142104557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"p53 Orchestrates Cancer Metabolism: Unveiling Strategies to Reverse the Warburg Effect.","authors":"Roba Abukwaik, Elias Vera-Siguenza, Daniel Tennant, Fabian Spill","doi":"10.1007/s11538-024-01346-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11538-024-01346-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Cancer cells exhibit significant alterations in their metabolism, characterised by a reduction in oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) and an increased reliance on glycolysis, even in the presence of oxygen. This metabolic shift, known as the Warburg effect, is pivotal in fuelling cancer's uncontrolled growth, invasion, and therapeutic resistance. While dysregulation of many genes contributes to this metabolic shift, the tumour suppressor gene p53 emerges as a master player. Yet, the molecular mechanisms remain elusive. This study introduces a comprehensive mathematical model, integrating essential p53 targets, offering insights into how p53 orchestrates its targets to redirect cancer metabolism towards an OXPHOS-dominant state. Simulation outcomes align closely with experimental data comparing glucose metabolism in colon cancer cells with wild-type and mutated p53. Additionally, our findings reveal the dynamic capability of elevated p53 activation to fully reverse the Warburg effect, highlighting the significance of its activity levels not just in triggering apoptosis (programmed cell death) post-chemotherapy but also in modifying the metabolic pathways implicated in treatment resistance. In scenarios of p53 mutations, our analysis suggests targeting glycolysis-instigating signalling pathways as an alternative strategy, whereas targeting solely synthesis of cytochrome c oxidase 2 (SCO2) does support mitochondrial respiration but may not effectively suppress the glycolysis pathway, potentially boosting the energy production and cancer cell viability.</p>","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11362376/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142104556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Mathematical Model of Diel Activity and Long Time Survival in Phototrophic Mixed-Species Subaerial Biofilms.","authors":"A Tenore, F Russo, J Jacob, J D Grattepanche, B Buttaro, I Klapper","doi":"10.1007/s11538-024-01348-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11538-024-01348-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Subaerial biofilms (SAB) are intricate microbial communities living on terrestrial surfaces, of interest in a variety of contexts including cultural heritage preservation, microbial ecology, biogeochemical cycling, and biotechnology. Here we propose a mathematical model aimed at better understanding the interplay between cyanobacteria and heterotrophic bacteria, common microbial SAB constituents, and their mutual dependence on local environmental conditions. SABs are modeled as thin mixed biofilm-liquid water layers sitting on stone. A system of ordinary differential equations regulates the dynamics of key SAB components: cyanobacteria, heterotrophs, polysaccharides and decayed biomass, as well as cellular levels of organic carbon, nitrogen and energy. These components are interconnected through a network of energetically dominant metabolic pathways, modeled with limitation terms reflecting the impact of biotic and abiotic factors. Daily cylces of temperature, humidity, and light intensity are considered as input model variables that regulate microbial activity by influencing water availability and metabolic kinetics. Relevant physico-chemical processes, including pH regulation, further contribute to a description of the SAB ecology. Numerical simulations explore the dynamics of SABs in a real-world context, revealing distinct daily activity periods shaped by water activity and light availability, as well as longer time scale survivability conditions. Results also suggest that heterotrophs could play a substantial role in decomposing non-volatile carbon compounds and regulating pH, thus influencing the overall composition and stability of the biofilm.</p>","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11358337/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142079215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Onset of Spontaneous Filling and Voiding Cycles in the Lower Urinary Tract: A Modeling Study.","authors":"Roberto Nunez, Elie Alhajjar, Daniel Jaskowak, Zachary C Danziger, Giovanna Guidoboni","doi":"10.1007/s11538-024-01320-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-024-01320-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Spontaneous filling and voiding cycles represent a key dynamical feature of the healthy lower urinary tract. Some urinary tract dysfunctions, such as over-flow incontinence, may alter the natural occurrence of these cycles. As the function of the lower urinary tract arises from the interplay of a multitude of factors, it is difficult to determine which of them can be modulated to regain spontaneous cycles. In this study, we develop a mathematical model of the lower urinary tract that can capture filling and voiding cycles in the form of periodic solutions of a system of ordinary differential equations. After experimental validation, we utilize this model to study the effect that several physiological quantities have on the onset of cycles. We find that some parameters have an associated numerical threshold that determines whether the system exhibits healthy cycles or settles in a state of constant overflow.</p>","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142046404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}