Bulletin of Mathematical Biology最新文献_第2页

Deriving Optimal Treatment Timing for Adaptive Therapy: Matching the Model to the Tumor Dynamics. 适应性治疗的最佳治疗时机：将模型与肿瘤动力学相匹配。

IF 2.2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01525-y

Kit Gallagher, Maximilian A R Strobl, Alexander R A Anderson, Philip K Maini

{"title":"Deriving Optimal Treatment Timing for Adaptive Therapy: Matching the Model to the Tumor Dynamics.","authors":"Kit Gallagher, Maximilian A R Strobl, Alexander R A Anderson, Philip K Maini","doi":"10.1007/s11538-025-01525-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11538-025-01525-y","url":null,"abstract":"Adaptive therapy (AT) protocols have been introduced to combat drug resistance in cancer, and are characterized by breaks from maximum tolerated dose treatment (the current standard of care in most clinical settings). These breaks are scheduled to maintain tolerably high levels of tumor burden, employing competitive suppression of treatment-resistant sub-populations by treatment-sensitive sub-populations. AT has been integrated into several ongoing or planned clinical trials, including treatment of metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer, ovarian cancer, and BRAF-mutant melanoma, with initial clinical results suggesting that it can offer significant extensions in the time to progression over the standard of care. Prior AT protocols apply drug treatment when the tumor is within a specific size window, typically determined by the initial tumor size. However, this approach may be sub-optimal as it does not account for variation in tumor dynamics between patients, resulting in significant heterogeneity in patient outcomes. Mathematical modeling and analysis have been proposed to optimize adaptive protocols, but they do not account for clinical restrictions, most notably the discrete time intervals between the clinical appointments where a patient's tumor burden is measured and their treatment schedule is re-evaluated. We present a general framework for deriving optimal treatment protocols that account for these discrete time intervals, and derive optimal schedules for several models to avoid model-specific personalization. We identify a trade-off between the frequency of patient monitoring and the time to progression attainable, and propose an AT protocol that determines drug dosing based on a patient-specific threshold for tumor size. Finally, we identify a subset of patients with qualitatively different dynamics that instead require a novel AT protocol based on a threshold that changes over the course of treatment.","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":"87 10","pages":"146"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12417256/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145022892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The GFB Tree and Tree Imbalance Indices. GFB树和树木失衡指数。

IF 2.2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01522-1

Sean Cleary, Mareike Fischer, Katherine St John

{"title":"The GFB Tree and Tree Imbalance Indices.","authors":"Sean Cleary, Mareike Fischer, Katherine St John","doi":"10.1007/s11538-025-01522-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11538-025-01522-1","url":null,"abstract":"Tree balance plays an important role in various research areas in phylogenetics and computer science. Typically, it is measured with the help of a balance index or imbalance index. There are more than 25 such indices available, recently surveyed in a book by Fischer et al. They are used to rank rooted binary trees on a scale from the most balanced to the least balanced. We show that a wide range of subtree-size based measures satisfying concavity and monotonicity conditions are minimized by the complete or greedy from the bottom (GFB) tree and maximized by the caterpillar tree, yielding an infinitely large family of distinct new imbalance indices. Answering an open question from the literature, we show that one such established measure, the <math><mover><mi>s</mi> <mo>^</mo></mover> </math> -shape statistic, has the GFB tree as its unique minimizer. We also provide an alternative characterization of GFB trees, showing that they are equivalent to complete trees, which arise in different contexts. We give asymptotic bounds on the expected <math><mover><mi>s</mi> <mo>^</mo></mover> </math> -shape statistic under the uniform and Yule-Harding distributions of trees, and answer questions for the related Q-shape statistic as well.","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":"87 10","pages":"145"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12413428/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144999754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A Data-Driven Mathematical Model for Clonorchiasis with Seasonality. 具有季节性的华支睾吸虫病数据驱动的数学模型。

IF 2.2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01527-w

Wei Wang, Xiaohui Huang, Tonghua Zhang, Zhaosheng Feng

引用次数: 0

Who Should be Controlled? The Role of Asymptomatic Individuals, Isolation and Switching in the Dominant Transmission Route in Classical and Network Epidemic Models. 谁应该被控制？经典和网络流行病模型中无症状个体、隔离和转换在主要传播途径中的作用。

IF 2.2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01521-2

Adriana Acosta-Tovar, Fabio Lopes

{"title":"Who Should be Controlled? The Role of Asymptomatic Individuals, Isolation and Switching in the Dominant Transmission Route in Classical and Network Epidemic Models.","authors":"Adriana Acosta-Tovar, Fabio Lopes","doi":"10.1007/s11538-025-01521-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11538-025-01521-2","url":null,"abstract":"We introduce two mathematical models for the spread of an SIR-type infectious disease, incorporating direct (person-to-person) and indirect (environment-to-person) transmissions, latent periods, asymptomatic infections, and different isolation rates for exposed, asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals. The first model employs the classical homogeneous mixing approach, while the second uses the edge-based compartmental approach to consider heterogeneity in the number of contacts within the population through a random contact network. Key epidemiological metrics, including the basic reproduction number and final epidemic size, are derived and illustrated through simulations for both models. Motivated by emerging infectious diseases with multiple transmission routes such as cholera and Mpox, we conduct sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of parameter variations and control measures. We also explore how secondary transmission routes influence disease spread and when the dominant route may switch over time. In this respect, our main theoretical results demonstrate that such a 'switching phenomenon' cannot occur in homogeneous mixing models or Poissonian networks when person-to-person transmission initially dominates, while numerical simulations show that it may occur in other networks such as scale-free and regular networks. These findings highlight the risks of designing public health interventions based solely on early disease dynamics and provide insights into controlling infections with multiple transmission routes.","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":"87 10","pages":"143"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144943868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Publishing in the Bulletin Provides Direct Financial Support to the Society for Mathematical Biology. 发表在公报上为数学生物学学会提供了直接的财政支持。

IF 2.2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01523-0

Matthew J Simpson, Reinhard C Laubenbacher, Jennifer A Flegg

引用次数: 0

Does GLUT4 Queue? A Mechanistic Mathematical Model for Insulin Response in Adipocytes. GLUT4是否排队？脂肪细胞胰岛素反应的机械数学模型。

IF 2.2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01490-6

Brock D Sherlock, Marko A A Boon, Maria Vlasiou, Adelle C F Coster

引用次数: 0

A Stochastic Model for Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Outbreak with Staged Progression. 肺炎支原体爆发分阶段发展的随机模型

IF 2.2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01519-w

Dan Li, Lanxin Gao, Jingan Cui

{"title":"A Stochastic Model for Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Outbreak with Staged Progression.","authors":"Dan Li, Lanxin Gao, Jingan Cui","doi":"10.1007/s11538-025-01519-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11538-025-01519-w","url":null,"abstract":"Mycoplasma pneumoniae (Mp) is one of the most common causes of community-acquired pneumonia in children. To uncover the effective interventions during an epidemic in crowded settings, we first develop a novel staged progression ordinary differential equation model for the transmission of Mp, incorporating the effects of isolation measures and correct diagnosis rate. The basic reproduction number is obtained by the next generation matrix approach. Based on the deterministic model, a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model is formulated to account for demographic variability. An analytic estimate for the probability of a disease outbreak, as well as an explicit expression for the mean (variance) of the disease extinction time in the absence of an outbreak, is derived by a multi-type branching process approximation of the CTMC model. By fitting the model to real data from a primary school, we estimate some key parameters of our model. Numerical simulations indicate that: (i) if the effects of demographic variability are ignored, the time to extinction after an outbreak is likely to be significantly underestimated or overestimated, depending on the isolation proportion; (ii) the impact of disease transmission rate, isolation proportion, and correct diagnosis rate on the probability of a disease outbreak depends on the stage of infection in which an infected individual is first introduced; (iii) decreasing the transmission rate, increasing the isolation proportion, or improving the correct diagnosis rate can significantly reduce the mean final size after an outbreak; and (iv) improving the correct diagnosis rate can help reduce the number of severe pneumonia cases.","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":"87 10","pages":"142"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144943479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Enhancing pedagogical practices with Artificial Neural Networks in the age of AI to engage the next generation in Biomathematics. 在人工智能时代加强人工神经网络的教学实践，使下一代参与生物数学。

IF 2.2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-08-31 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01511-4

Jeremis Morales-Morales, Alonso Ogueda-Oliva, Carmen Caiseda, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer

{"title":"Enhancing pedagogical practices with Artificial Neural Networks in the age of AI to engage the next generation in Biomathematics.","authors":"Jeremis Morales-Morales, Alonso Ogueda-Oliva, Carmen Caiseda, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer","doi":"10.1007/s11538-025-01511-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11538-025-01511-4","url":null,"abstract":"In this work we present a C-MATH-NN framework that extends a C-MATH framework that was developed in recent years to include prediction using artificial neural networks (NN) in a way that is engaging, interdisciplinary and collaborative to help equip our next generation of students with advanced technological and critical thinking skills motivated by social good. Specifically, the C-MATH framework has successfully helped students understand a real-world Context through a mathematical Model which is then Analyzed mathematically and Tested through appropriate numerical methods with data, and finally this undergraduate research becomes a Habit for students. Furthermore, the explanation of the main components of a simple NN-model serves as an introduction to this popular artificial intelligence tool. This framework has contributed to the success of talented students in mathematical biology research and their academic goals. We present a visual introduction to the architecture of artificial neural networks and its application to disease dynamics for all interested learners. We introduce a simple feed forward physics-informed neural network (PINN) built in MS-Excel that works very well for an epidemiological model and an equivalent Python implementation that is robust and scalable. The products introduced in this work are shared in an online repository with curriculum material for students and instructors that includes MS-Excel workbooks and Python files to facilitate the acquisition of technology tools to explore and use in their own projects.","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":"87 10","pages":"139"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12399703/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144943782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling the Effects of Temperature and Resource Quality on the Outcome of Competition Between Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and the Resulting Risk of Vector-Borne Disease. 模拟温度和资源质量对埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊竞争结果的影响以及由此产生的媒介传播疾病风险。

IF 2.2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-08-30 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01518-x

Emma Beck, Lauren Beuerle, Patt Martin, Regan Stambaugh, Rebeca de Jesús Crespo, Michael A Robert, Suzanne L Robertson

{"title":"Modeling the Effects of Temperature and Resource Quality on the Outcome of Competition Between Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and the Resulting Risk of Vector-Borne Disease.","authors":"Emma Beck, Lauren Beuerle, Patt Martin, Regan Stambaugh, Rebeca de Jesús Crespo, Michael A Robert, Suzanne L Robertson","doi":"10.1007/s11538-025-01518-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11538-025-01518-x","url":null,"abstract":"The community composition of vectors and hosts plays a critical role in determining risk of vector-borne disease transmission. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, two mosquito species that both transmit the viruses that cause dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, share habitat requirements and compete for resources at the larval stage. Ae. albopictus is generally considered a better competitor under many conditions, while Ae. aegypti is able to tolerate higher temperatures and is generally a more competent vector for many pathogens. We develop a stage-structured ordinary differential equation model that incorporates competition between the juvenile stages of two mosquito populations. We incorporate experimental constraints on competition coefficients for high and low quality food resources and explore differences in the potential outcomes of competition. We then incorporate temperature-dependent fecundity rates, juvenile development rates, and adult mortality rates for each species, and we explore competition outcomes as a function of temperature. We show that regions of coexistence and competitive exclusion depend on food quality and relative values of temperature-dependent life history parameters. Finally, we investigate the combined impacts of temperature and competition on the potential for dengue transmission, and we discuss our results in the context of present and future risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission.","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":"87 10","pages":"138"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12398451/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144943877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Stability of Difference Equations with Interspecific Density Dependence, Competition, and Maturation Delays. 具有种间密度依赖、竞争和成熟延迟的差分方程的稳定性。

IF 2.2 4区数学

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-025-01515-0

Geoffrey R Hosack, Maud El-Hachem, Nicholas J Beeton

{"title":"Stability of Difference Equations with Interspecific Density Dependence, Competition, and Maturation Delays.","authors":"Geoffrey R Hosack, Maud El-Hachem, Nicholas J Beeton","doi":"10.1007/s11538-025-01515-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11538-025-01515-0","url":null,"abstract":"A general system of difference equations is presented for multispecies communities with density dependent population growth and delayed maturity. Interspecific competition, mutualism, predation, commensalism, and amensalism are accommodated. A sufficient condition for the local asymptotic stability of a coexistence equilibrium in this system is then proven. Using this system, the generalisation of the Beverton-Holt and Leslie-Gower models of competition to multispecies systems with possible maturation delays is presented and shown to yield interesting stability properties. The stability of coexistence depends on the relative abundances of the species at the unique interior equilibrium. A sufficient condition for local stability is derived that only requires intraspecific competition to outweigh interspecific competition. The condition does not depend on maturation delays. The derived stability properties are used to develop a novel estimation approach for the coefficients of interspecific competition. This approach finds an optimal configuration given two conjectures. First, coexisting species strive to outcompete competitors. Second, persisting species are more likely in stable systems with strong dampening of perturbations and high ecological resilience. The optimal solution is compared to estimates of niche overlap using an empirical example of malaria mosquito vectors with delayed maturity in the Anopheles gambiae sensu lato species complex.","PeriodicalId":9372,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Mathematical Biology","volume":"87 10","pages":"137"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12397156/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144943798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0