{"title":"Multiscale Variability of Autumn\u0000 Precipitation in Eastern Taiwan Modulated by ENSO, ISO, and TC Activity","authors":"Ching-Hsuan Wu, Wei-Ting Chen, Chien-Ming Wu","doi":"10.1007/s13143-024-00359-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-024-00359-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the multiscale variability of rainfall over\u0000 eastern Taiwan during October–November, focusing on the companion effect of tropical\u0000 cyclone (TC) activity in the South China Sea (SCS) and northeasterly monsoon flow.\u0000 The interannual variation of autumn rainfall is significantly influenced by the ENSO\u0000 Phase. During La Niña years, the moisture transport from the SCS-Philippine Sea to\u0000 eastern Taiwan is enhanced by the anomalous southeasterly winds owing to the\u0000 cyclonic flow over the SCS. The response of autumn rainfall to ENSO is contributed\u0000 by intraseasonal variability and the associated TC activity in SCS. During La Niña\u0000 years, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) convective areas during phases 4–7 shift\u0000 into the SCS-Philippine Sea, and the quasi bi-weekly oscillation (QBWO) convective\u0000 activity is enhanced around the north of Luzon Island. We categorize TCs moving\u0000 westward into or forming within the SCS into the groups causing significant rainfall\u0000 in eastern Taiwan or not (the rainfall and non-rainfall groups). The rainfall group\u0000 predominantly occurs during La Niña years in MJO phases 5. Both groups have similar\u0000 average TC intensities, but the rainfall group’s path and the associated cyclonic\u0000 circulation are placed more northward. Both groups of TCs coincide with QBWO’s\u0000 cyclonic circulation, but the cyclonic circulation associated with the rainfall\u0000 group stretched from the SCS to the Ryukyu Islands, favoring the moisture transport\u0000 from the Philippine Sea to eastern Taiwan. We concluded that, excluding direct TC\u0000 influences, the most favorable conditions for heavy rainfall in eastern Taiwan in\u0000 Autumn are La Niña years during MJO phases 4–5, when the coinciding of TCs with\u0000 appropriately structured QBWOs passing through the Bashi Channel or the Northern\u0000 Philippines into the SCS. A regression model is developed based on the diagnostics\u0000 in this study using vertically integrated moisture transport and divergence from\u0000 1000–700 hPa, which provide the basis of the storyline approach to estimate autumn\u0000 rainfall over eastern Taiwan from the future projection of global climate\u0000 models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"60 3","pages":"303 - 317"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140117210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}