Projected changes in wind erosion climatic erosivity over high mountain Asia: results from dynamical downscaling outputs

Wind erosion climatic erosivity is a measure of climatic conditions that affect wind erosion. Projecting wind erosion climatic erosivity is curcial for predicting future wind erosion risk. In this study, we employed dynamic downscaling outputs from the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model to project changes in wind erosion climatic erosivity over High Mountain Asia (HMA) from 2041 to 2060 under a middle-emission scenario (an additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m² by 2100). From 1995 to 2014, wind erosion climatic erosivity in HMA was high in the southwest, on the Qiangtang Plateau, and in the Qaidam Basin, exceeding 1 kg·m⁻¹ s⁻¹. Compared to the period 1995–2014, wind erosion climatic erosivity is projected to decrease by 0.5 kg·m⁻¹ s⁻¹ over the east of the Qiangtang Plateau and increase by approximately 1 kg·m⁻¹ s⁻¹ in the southwest of the HMA during 2041–2060 under the middle emission scenario. This increase in wind erosion climatic erosivity in the southwest of HMA is attributed to a projected rise in high-wind frequency for 2041–2060 compared to 1995–2014. Conversely, the decrease in wind erosion climatic erosivity in the east of the Qiangtang Plateau results from increased precipitation during 2041–2060, which mitigates the effects of increased high-wind frequencies. Given the growing risk of wind erosion in the southwest of the HMA, it’s essential to implement appropriate mitigation policies for the future.