Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences最新文献

{"title":"Forecasting PM2.5 Concentration in India Using a Cluster Based Hybrid Graph Neural Network Approach","authors":"Pavan Sai Santhosh Ejurothu,&nbsp;Subhojit Mandal,&nbsp;Mainak Thakur","doi":"10.1007/s13143-022-00291-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-022-00291-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Air pollution modeling and forecasting over a national level scale for a country as large as India is a very challenging task due to the large amount of data involved in a limited spatial frequency. Often the air pollution and pollutant dispersion process depend on underlying meteorological conditions. Recently, Graph Neural Networks emerged as an effective deep learning model for discovering spatial patterns for various classification and regression tasks. This study proposes to employ a cluster-based Local Hybrid-Graph Neural Network (HGNN) methodology instead of using a single global Graph Neural Network for monitoring station-wise multi-step PM_2.5 concentration forecasting across India’s states. This methodology respects sudden changes in PM<span>(_{2.5})</span> concentration due to the local meteorological variations. However, the local Hybrid GNN models consist of two parts: a spatio-temporal unit containing a Graph Neural Network layer along with a Gated Recurrent Unit layer to model the influence of wind speed and other meteorological variables on PM_2.5 concentration. The other part is a station wise feature extraction unit to extract station-wise meteorological feature impact on PM_2.5 concentration, along with the temporal dependency between historical records. The results from the two units are fused in step-wise manner for multi-step PM_2.5 forecasting. The proposed methodology was used to develop separate PM_2.5 concentration forecasting models, +24, +48 and +72 hours ahead. Subsequently, a detailed analysis is carried out to unfold the advantages of the proposed methodology. Results demonstrate the proposed models perform better than the state-of-the-art with significantly lesser computation time.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"59 5","pages":"545 - 561"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42850834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparison of Two Kinds of Momentum Control Variables in 3DVAR During Assimilating Low-resolution Observations in a Convective-scale Model: a Case Study of Torrential Rainfall in North China","authors":"Qiru Dong,&nbsp;Xuelian Wang,&nbsp;Shuiyong Fan,&nbsp;Yinghua Li,&nbsp;Xiaobin Qiu,&nbsp;Lili Liu","doi":"10.1007/s13143-022-00290-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-022-00290-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The x and y components of wind (U and V, respectively) are widely used as control variables in radar assimilation; therefore, it is common to choose (U, V) as the control variables for multi-scale data assimilation (DA) in convective-scale. When the model resolution reaches the convective scale, whether (U, V), as the momentum control variables, are still more suitable than the stream function (<i>ψ</i>) and unbalanced velocity potential (<i>χ</i>_<i>u</i>), it needs to be studied further examination. This study uses 3-km resolution forecast samples to calculate the background error covariance (<b>B</b>) with two different pairs of momentum control variables ((<i>ψ</i>, <i>χ</i>_<i>u</i>) and (U, V)) by the National Meteorology Center (NMC) method. In single-observation experiments, the analysis wind field is most sensitive to the two pairs of <b>B</b>, and the temperature is insensitive. When using (U, V) as the control variables, the local characteristic is more evident according to vertical and horizontal wind increments. The study assimilates low- resolution conventional observations to compare different momentum control variables, (<i>ψ, χ</i>_<i>u</i>) and (U, V), in numerical simulation experiments of the torrential rainfall in North China. In addition, the impacts of the two control variables options are also compared in terms of the 15 continuous days of cases in flood season. The main results are as follows: (1) the wind field is the critical difference between the two assimilation experiments at the analysis time. Using (U, V) as the control variables, the analysis field of wind from both the surface and different vertical levels is superior. The analysis field closer fits the wind observation; (2) the use of (U, V) control variables improves the short term (0 ~ 3-h) in surface wind prediction; and (3) the use of (U, V) control variables enhances the 24-h TS (threat score) in moderate rain and heavy rain.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"58 5","pages":"697 - 713"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2022-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13143-022-00290-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47583487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future Projections of Precipitation using Bias–Corrected High–Resolution Regional Climate Models for Sub–Regions with Homogeneous Characteristics in South Korea","authors":"Changyong Park,&nbsp;Seok-Woo Shin,&nbsp;Dong-Hyun Cha,&nbsp;Myoung-Seok Suh,&nbsp;Song-You Hong,&nbsp;Joong-Bae Ahn,&nbsp;Seung-Ki Min,&nbsp;Young-Hwa Byun","doi":"10.1007/s13143-022-00292-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-022-00292-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h2>\u0000Abstract\u0000</h2><div><p>Although South Korea has a relatively small area when compared to neighboring countries, there are large differences in precipitation characteristics by region due to its complex topography. Therefore, to effectively respond to disasters caused by precipitation in South Korea, climate change information using a climate model with an improved spatial resolution is required. This study classified sub–regions with homogeneous characteristics in South Korea using transformed gridded precipitation observation datasets. Then, high–resolution regional climate models (RCMs) with a 12.5 km horizontal resolution, which are known to simulate added value well in simulating future projections of South Korea, were bias–corrected, and future changes in the precipitation means and extremes were analyzed using these RCMs. The classified precipitation sub–regions in South Korea reasonably reflected the observed distribution of precipitation, depending on latitude and topography. The future precipitation characteristics of the classified precipitation sub–regions were predicted using bias–corrected RCMs. While the annual precipitation is projected to increase relative to the present in most grids for all future periods, the RCP8.5 scenario for the mid–twenty-first century is projected to decrease in the north of the central region. Intensified warming in the late twenty-first century is predicted to considerably increase the mean precipitation intensity and magnitude of the high–intensity extreme precipitation in all the precipitation sub–regions. As these results can lead to increased hydrological disasters, this study will help to prepare practical countermeasures for precipitation changes on regional and local spatial scales in South Korea.</p></div></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"58 5","pages":"715 - 727"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2022-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48691552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The East Asian Summer Monsoon Response to Global Warming in a High Resolution Coupled Model: Mean and Extremes","authors":"Zhen Liu,&nbsp;Sun-Seon Lee,&nbsp;Arjun Babu Nellikkattil,&nbsp;June-Yi Lee,&nbsp;Lan Dai,&nbsp;Kyung-Ja Ha,&nbsp;Christian L. E. Franzke","doi":"10.1007/s13143-022-00285-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-022-00285-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Current climate models still have considerable biases in the simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), which in turn reduces their reliability of monsoon projections under global warming. We hypothesize that a higher-resolution coupled climate model with atmospheric and oceanic components at horizontal resolutions of 0.25° and 0.1°, respectively, will better capture regional details and extremes of the EASM. Present-day (PD), 2 × CO₂ and 4 × CO₂ simulations are conducted with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) to evaluate PD simulation performance and quantify future changes. Indeed, our PD simulation well reproduces the climatological seasonal mean and intra-seasonal northward advancement of the monsoon rainband, as well as climate extremes. Compared with the PD simulation, the perturbed CO₂ experiments show an intensified EASM response to CO₂-induced warming. We find that the precipitation increases of the Meiyu-Baiu-Changma band are caused by comparable contributions from the dynamical and thermodynamical components in 2 × CO₂, while they are more driven by the thermodynamical component in 4 × CO₂ due to stronger upper atmospheric stability. The regional changes in the probability distribution of the temperature show that extreme temperatures warm faster than the most often temperatures, increasing the skewness. Fitting extreme precipitation values with a generalized Pareto distribution model reveals that they increase significantly in 4 × CO₂. Changes of temperature extremes scale with the CO₂ concentrations over the monsoon domain but not for precipitation extreme changes. The 99^th percentile of precipitation over the monsoon region increases at a super Clausius-Clapeyron rate, ~ 8% K^–1, which is mainly caused by increased moisture transport through anomalous southerly winds.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"59 1","pages":"29 - 45"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2022-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13143-022-00285-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41721230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Simulations in CMIP6 Models: A New Test-Bed from Climate Network Analysis","authors":"Yiling Ma,&nbsp;Naiming Yuan,&nbsp;Tianyun Dong,&nbsp;Wenjie Dong","doi":"10.1007/s13143-022-00286-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-022-00286-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As a dominant pattern of the North Pacific sea surface temperature decadal variability, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has remarkable influences on the marine and terrestrial ecosystems. However, the PDO is highly unpredictable. Here, we assess the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating the PDO, with an emphasis on the evaluation of CMIP6 models in reproducing a recently detected early warning signal based on climate network analysis for the PDO regime shift. Results show that the skill of CMIP6 historical simulations remains at a low level, with a skill limited in reproducing PDO’s spatial pattern and nearly no skill in reproducing the PDO index. However, if the warning signal for the PDO regime shift by climate network analysis is considered as a test-bed, we find that even in historical simulations, a few models can represent the corresponding relationship between the warning signal and the PDO regime shift, regardless of the chronological accuracy. By further conducting initialization, the performance of the model simulations is improved according to the evaluation of the hindcasts from two ensemble members of the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (NorCPM1 and BCC-CSM2-MR). Particularly, we find that the NorCPM1 model can capture the early warning signals for the late-1970s and late-1990s regime shifts 5–7 years in advance, indicating that the early warning signal somewhat can be captured by some CMIP6 models. A further investigation on the underlying mechanisms of the early warning signal would be crucial for the improvement of model simulations in the North Pacific.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"59 1","pages":"17 - 28"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2022-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13143-022-00286-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43121665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Snow Depth Estimation by using its Drop Size Moment in South Korea Regions","authors":"Jiwon Choi,&nbsp;Ki-Ho Chang,&nbsp;Kyung-Eak Kim,&nbsp;Jin-Yim Jeong,&nbsp;Baek-Jo Kim","doi":"10.1007/s13143-022-00283-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-022-00283-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study proposes a new method of estimating snow depth by using a moment (<span>({M}_{n})</span>) of snow particle size distribution (<span>(SPSD)</span>). We assumed that estimated snow depth (<span>(ESD)</span>) is given by a simple relationship: <span>(ESD)</span> (cm) = <span>(A)</span>×<span>({M}_{n})</span>, where the parameters, <span>(A)</span> and <span>(n)</span> are a proportional coefficient and an exponent in the moment formula, respectively. They were determined by a regression analysis between the observed snow depths (OSD) by laser snow depth meter, and the values of <span>({M}_{n})</span> from <span>(SPSD)</span> observed by Parsivel, installed at three observation sites: Cloud and Physics Observation Site (CPOS), Yongpyeong (YP) and Mokpo (MP) in South Korea. Snow observations were made from November to April: CPOS (2012 to 2015), YP (2015 to 2017) and MP (2005 to 2015). The analysis results indicate that the optimized value of A ranges from 2.16 × 10^–5 to 2.28 × 10^–5, and the optimized range of n is 2.21 to 2.68. The average values of A and n are 2.47 × 10^–5 and 2.21, respectively. The coefficient of determination (R²) between <span>(OSD)</span> and <span>(overline{ESD})</span>(obtained by using average values of <span>(A)</span> and <span>(n)</span>) was 0.81, indicating a fairly good correlation between them. This indicates that <span>(overline{ESD})</span> does appear to have potential for estimating operationally, timely information on snow depth. This study suggests that <span>(SPSD)</span> observed by disdrometer (Parsivel or 2DVD) can be also used as an alternative of the typical snow measuring instruments such as snow stake and ultra-sonic snow depth meter.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"58 5","pages":"743 - 753"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2022-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13143-022-00283-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42323918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Microphysical Structures of an Extreme Rainfall Event Over the Coastal Metropolitan City of Guangzhou, China: Observation Analysis with Polarimetric Radar","authors":"Hong Wang,&nbsp;Jinfang Yin,&nbsp;Naigeng Wu,&nbsp;Weiyu Ding","doi":"10.1007/s13143-022-00289-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-022-00289-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A record-breaking nocturnal rainfall event (543 mm in 16-h) under weak synoptic forcing occurred in the metropolitan city of Guangzhou, China, during 6–7 May 2017. The evolution and microphysical structures of this torrential rainfall event are investigated using S-band polarimetric radar datasets. The torrential rainfall concentrated in two cores: one over Huadu District (HD) in which the storms were initiated between urban areas and mountains at mid-night, and the other over Huangpu and Zengcheng District (ZC) which was characterized by locally triggered storms merging with the storms from HD. The two heavy precipitation regions show some similarities, including strong reflectivity factor for horizontal polarizations (<i>Z</i>_H) magnitude, low centroid cumulonimbus structures, and column shape of differential reflectivity (<i>Z</i>_DR). But obvious differences can also be viewed between them. Compared to HD, ZC has higher precipitation intensity, longer precipitation duration, and larger accumulated rainfall. Besides, ZC also has a relatively lower <i>Z</i>_DR value of ~ 0.2 dB and a higher specific differential phase (<i>K</i>_DP) of approximately ~ 0.35° km⁻¹, which indicates the larger population of medium-sized rain droplet and higher water content in ZC. The radar-retrieved drop size distributions (DSDs) (i.e., mass-weighted diameter, logarithmic normalized intercept, and liquid water content) show that small size particles and high particle number concentration are more obvious in the storm over ZC. Combined with the retrieved DSDs, the merger process brings more medium-sized raindrops to ZC, and increases the possibility of raindrop growth via the accretion of cloud water by rain, which leads to enhancement of precipitation. In addition, strong <i>K</i>_DP may be a good indicator of intensity for extreme precipitation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"59 1","pages":"3 - 16"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2022-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45673715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Recent Air Quality Deterioration on Weekends in Seoul, South Korea: a Focus on External Contribution","authors":"Woosuk Choi,&nbsp;Chang-Hoi Ho,&nbsp;Jin-Woo Heo,&nbsp;Ka-Young Kim,&nbsp;Sang-Woo Kim,&nbsp;Jinwon Kim","doi":"10.1007/s13143-022-00287-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-022-00287-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study has found that the wintertime (November–March) air quality in Seoul, Korea had been deteriorated in weekends during the period of 2016–2019. Specifically, the concentration of particulate matters (PMs) of aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) in weekends (Saturday–Sunday) was up to 30% higher than that in the mid-week (Wednesday–Thursday) days (probability value &lt; 0.01). As the weekend PM concentration had been lower than the mid-week values by 10% until 2015, such a sudden change in the intra-weekly air quality is unexpected. This study finds out that the deterioration of air quality in weekends can be attributed primarily to secondary particle formations and external transports from China (Shandong and northeast provinces) and domestic provinces (southern Gyeonggi and Chungcheong in Korea) to Seoul. High concentration of PM_2.5 on weekend could be partially explained by the differences in the concentrations of inorganic PM components including nitrate, ammonium, and sulfate between weekends and mid-week days. About 40% of the differences are attributed to the domestic sources located in the southern region to Seoul. However, domestic emission from power generations and industry sector in southern source region on weekends does not well explain the variations of the PM precursors in weekends. Therefore, a clear strategy for improving air quality on the weekend in Seoul requires steady efforts to accurately calculate regional emissions and to reveal missing emissions sources.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"59 5","pages":"531 - 543"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13143-022-00287-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48946985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Numerical Errors in Ice Microphysics Parameterizations and their Effects on Simulated Regional Climate","authors":"Ki-Byung Kim,&nbsp;Kyo-Sun Sunny Lim,&nbsp;Jiwoo Lee","doi":"10.1007/s13143-022-00288-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-022-00288-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The major characteristics of ice microphysics in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) bulk-type cloud microphysics originate from the diagnosed ice number concentration, which is a function of the cloud-ice mixing ratio. In this study, we correct numerical errors in ice microphysics processes of the WDM6, in which the cloud-ice shape is assumed as single bullets and examine the impact on regional climate simulations. By rederiving the relationships between cloud microphysics characteristics, including the one linking the cloud-ice mixing ratio and number concentration, we remove numerical errors intrinsic to the description of cloud-ice characteristics in the original WDM6 microphysics scheme. The revised WDM6 is tested using a WRF framework for regional climate simulations over the East Asian region. We find that our correction to the WDM6 improves the model’s performance in capturing the observed distribution of the monsoon rain band. A reduction in cloud ice is significant in the revised WDM6, which strengthens the Western North Pacific High. By conducting the additional sensitivity experiment in which the characteristics of cloud-ice shape are revised as the one for the column type, our study also finds out that the impacts of the existing numerical errors on the simulated monsoon is as large as the ones of the changes in cloud-ice shape.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"58 5","pages":"679 - 695"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2022-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42450678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Predictive Model of Seasonal Clothing Demand with Weather Factors","authors":"Jungmi Oh,&nbsp;Kyung-Ja Ha,&nbsp;Young-Heon Jo","doi":"10.1007/s13143-022-00284-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-022-00284-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>New normal weather, more significant variations in temperature and precipitation, and more extreme weather events have resulted in sluggish sales in the clothing industry. Since the industry is a highly fragmented global value chain and procurement of clothing products requires long lead times, weather forecasts are essential information for product planning. Thus, this study aims to develop a model of merchandising strategy for retailers using weather factors within a season. As a place-specific study, we acquire the data from Goggle Trend and weather observation sites from October 2008 to January 2019. Temperature, precipitation, wind speed, snowfall, snow depth, and wind chill were analyzed to find influential factors in seasonal clothing demand. Exploratory data analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, cross-correlation analysis, and Genialized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) are conducted. Wind chill and the month of the year are significant predictors of seasonal clothing demand. Since the wind chill changes lead to the demand for seasonal clothing one day ahead, this study uses the one-day-lagged windchill data (WindChill_lag1). GLMM model separates the linear relationship between WindChill_lag1 and monthly consumer demand in winter seasons with random effects for multiple years. In addition, the model shows that there are unmeasured characteristics of consumer demand which are indicated through intercept covariance between years. This study provides meaningful information to the clothing industry, which can modify their merchandising plan at the right time according to a weather change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"58 5","pages":"667 - 678"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2022-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41385901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}