Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences最新文献

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Observation-Constrained Intercomparison of CMIP6 GCMs Precipitation Projections around Japan CMIP6 GCMs对日本周边降水预估的观测约束比对
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-025-00423-6
Do-yup Kim, Naoki Shirakawa
{"title":"Observation-Constrained Intercomparison of CMIP6 GCMs Precipitation Projections around Japan","authors":"Do-yup Kim,&nbsp;Naoki Shirakawa","doi":"10.1007/s13143-025-00423-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-025-00423-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study conducts an observation-constrained intercomparison of 23 CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) for precipitation over Japan. We quantify relative agreement between models and a regional reference analysis from the JMA mesoscale system (GPV-MSM) for 2015–2023. Eight precipitation indices (mean, 90th percentile, max5d, CWD, etc.) and four statistical metrics (correlation, Pbias, NRMSE, Taylor skill score) are synthesized via entropy-weighted TOPSIS to obtain a proximity-to-reference coefficient and a similarity-based ordering. To limit interpolation artifacts, all fields are remapped to a 1.0° × 1.0° common grid. Because the CMIP6 Historical experiment ends in 2014, ScenarioMIP SSP585 simulations are used for 2015–2023. Axis-specific results show a stable latitudinal top-tier cohort comprising ACCESS-CM2, KACE-1-0-G, and UKESM1-0-LL, each with Top-3 inclusion probabilities ≥ 89%. In the longitudinal direction, a distinct three-model cohort—KACE-1-0-G, CNRM-ESM2-1, and CESM2-WACCM—emerges with Top-3 probabilities near 60%. Bootstrap resampling indicates consistent rank structures (median Kendall’s Tau = 0.87 for latitude and 0.72 for longitude), with wider intervals in the longitudinal rankings indicating larger sampling variability. Across indices, the intercomparison indicates systematic model-reference differences: many models show lower amplitudes in extreme-intensity indices (90P, max5d) together with positive differences in wet-spell persistence (CWD, CWD10). The synthesis therefore identifies cohorts with comparatively higher similarity across multiple indicators (e.g., ACCESS-CM2, KACE-1-0-G, UKESM1-0-LL) and others with lower similarity (e.g., INM-CM4-8, IPSL-CM6A-LR). All findings are interpreted as relative agreement with an observation-constrained regional analysis over 2015–2023 and are intended to support bias-aware, purpose-specific use of CMIP6 precipitation in regional applications.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145929791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Analysis of Low-Level Wind Shear at the Incheon International Airport in Coastal Region 沿海地区仁川国际机场低层风切变分析
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-025-00424-5
Young-Hee Lee, Ki-Hong Min
{"title":"Analysis of Low-Level Wind Shear at the Incheon International Airport in Coastal Region","authors":"Young-Hee Lee,&nbsp;Ki-Hong Min","doi":"10.1007/s13143-025-00424-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-025-00424-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study analyzed the characteristics and mechanisms of low-level wind shear at Incheon International Airport (IIA), which is located in a coastal region with gentle terrain, using 1-minute wind data from the Aerodrome Meteorological Observation System (AMOS) and hourly ERA5 reanalysis data. Wind measurements from 8 AMOS stations positioned along runways revealed a dominant channeling effect along the runway, with prevailing northwesterly and southeasterly winds, along with small-scale horizontal variability. The analysis of joint frequency distributions between near-surface and upper-level winds indicated that the northwesterly winds resulted from downward momentum transport, while the southeasterly winds occurred due to baroclinicity and pressure-driven channeling under stable stratification. These southeasterly winds were enhanced by the land breezes. Thermally-driven circulations, including land-sea breezes and slope winds, further contributed to the horizontal heterogeneity in wind patterns. On strong-synoptic forcing days, wind heterogeneity increased with wind speed, whereas on weak-synoptic forcing days, it peaked in the early afternoon due to local sea breeze development. Vertical wind shear events exceeding 7.7 m s<sup>-1</sup> (15 knots) between the surface and 975 hPa were more frequent at night, accounting for 3.0% (headwind) and 4.2% (crosswind) of study period. Strong shear events were often accompanied with strong synoptic winds, but some events were associated with moderate synoptic southeasterly and southwesterly winds due to interactions with land-breeze forcing. The results emphasize the importance of the interaction between synoptic forcing and land breeze forcing in low-level wind shear in coastal regions and provide insights for enhancing flight safety and small air mobility operations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145930088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Record Rainfall from the Enhanced Southwest Monsoon in Metro Manila, Philippines: A Comparative Study of Recent Events 菲律宾马尼拉地区西南季风增强的降水记录:近期事件的比较研究
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-025-00425-4
Lyndon Mark Payanay Olaguera, Alwin Andriel L. Bathan, Edward Kyle Badua, Erica N. Bañares, Clint Eldrick R. Petilla, John A. Manalo, Faye Abigail T. Cruz, Jose Ramon T. Villarin
{"title":"Record Rainfall from the Enhanced Southwest Monsoon in Metro Manila, Philippines: A Comparative Study of Recent Events","authors":"Lyndon Mark Payanay Olaguera,&nbsp;Alwin Andriel L. Bathan,&nbsp;Edward Kyle Badua,&nbsp;Erica N. Bañares,&nbsp;Clint Eldrick R. Petilla,&nbsp;John A. Manalo,&nbsp;Faye Abigail T. Cruz,&nbsp;Jose Ramon T. Villarin","doi":"10.1007/s13143-025-00425-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-025-00425-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Non-landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) traversing north and northeast of the Philippines during the southwest monsoon season (locally, <i>Habagat</i>) often enhance the prevailing moisture-laden southwest monsoon flow, inducing heavy rainfall and flooding events, particularly along the western coast of the country. One such event occurred last July 23–24, 2024 (<i>Habagat</i> 2024), when the <i>Habagat</i> was enhanced by TC GAEMI (locally, Super Typhoon CARINA) and some parts of the country received a month’s worth of rainfall. This study examines its unique features and compares it with recent <i>Habagat</i> events. Events with rainfall amounts above the 95th percentile in weather stations within Metro Manila in July and August for at least two days from 2012 to 2024 were selected for the analysis. <i>Habagat</i> 2024 produced exceptionally high rainfall, most of which occurred within 24 h. This record rainfall was accompanied by higher than normal magnitudes of the horizontal winds, vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VIMFC), stream function, vertically integrated moisture flux (VIMF), and surface latent heat flux. The Moisture Conveyor Belt for the <i>Habagat</i> 2024 event, in particular, was noticeably more pronounced, which explains the higher rainfall rate relative to previous <i>Habagat</i> events. Furthermore, the VIMF anomalies were further separated into the basic flow (monsoon only) and the TC perturbation flow using spatial Fourier decomposition analysis to identify which contributes more to rainfall enhancement over Metro Manila. <i>Habagat</i> 2024 exhibited the strongest basic monsoon flow and TC perturbation flow among all events, with the latter contributing more to the rainfall enhancement.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145930089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Synoptic-Scale Environment for Heavy Rainfall Over the Korean Peninsula During the Changma (late June through mid-July) and August 昌马(6月下旬至7月中旬)和8月朝鲜半岛强降雨的天气尺度环境
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-025-00421-8
Sang-Hun Park, Uju Shin, Sehyun Lee, Tae-Young Lee
{"title":"Synoptic-Scale Environment for Heavy Rainfall Over the Korean Peninsula During the Changma (late June through mid-July) and August","authors":"Sang-Hun Park,&nbsp;Uju Shin,&nbsp;Sehyun Lee,&nbsp;Tae-Young Lee","doi":"10.1007/s13143-025-00421-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-025-00421-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the synoptic-scale environment for heavy rainfall over the Korean Peninsula (KP) during the Changma (late June through mid-July) and August using a 30-year dataset (1990–2019). The K-means clustering of geopotential height and equivalent potential temperature at 850 hPa has produced nine clusters of synoptic-scale environment, which are classified into 4 patterns. For the Changma, 1) the pattern 1 (C2, C4 and C6 clusters): a synoptic cyclone to the north, the western North Pacific Subtropical high (WNPSH) to the southeast of the KP, a significant trough to the southeast of the Tibetan plateau, and the strong southwesterly band from SW China to the KP, 2) the pattern 2 (C3 and C5) is similar to the pattern 1 except for the ridge over northeastern China, 3) the pattern 3 (C1 and C7) is similar to the pattern 2, except for the synoptic-scale trough over the South China Sea, and 4) the pattern 4 (C8 and C9) is not a typical Changma pattern. For August, 1) the pattern 1 (A3, A8 and A9) is similar to the Changma pattern 1, however, the Tibet trough and the southwesterly belt are relatively weak, 2) the pattern 2 (A7 and A2) shows heavy rainfall along the western edge of the WNPSH accompanied by relatively frequent tropical cyclones (TCs), 3) the pattern 3 (A5 and A6) shows heavy rainfall along the western edge of the WNPSH with a trough over the Yellow Sea, and 4) the pattern 4 (A4 and A1) shows heavy rainfall away from the WNPSH.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145729641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Synoptic-Scale and Mesoscale Features Favorable for the Occurrence of Three Successive Gust Front Days Over the Southeastern Coast of China 有利于中国东南沿海连续三天阵风锋出现的天气尺度和中尺度特征
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-025-00411-w
Longbin Ye, Jing Zhu, Xin Huang, Yipeng Huang, Hui Zheng
{"title":"Synoptic-Scale and Mesoscale Features Favorable for the Occurrence of Three Successive Gust Front Days Over the Southeastern Coast of China","authors":"Longbin Ye,&nbsp;Jing Zhu,&nbsp;Xin Huang,&nbsp;Yipeng Huang,&nbsp;Hui Zheng","doi":"10.1007/s13143-025-00411-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-025-00411-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>From 31 July to 2 August 2022, a successive three-day gust front (GF) event occurred over southeastern coastal China, as clearly observed in satellite and radar data. Such successive GF events were uncommon in this region of complex hilly terrain. This study employed multi-source observations and reanalysis data to conduct observational and mechanistic analyses of these events. The GFs originated primarily from multicellular storms, with surface stations recording characteristic abrupt temperature drops and relative humidity increases. Results showed that the GF event was closely linked to specific synoptic conditions during the northward movement of Typhoon “Trases”, which established an environment conducive to parent storm and GF development. Composite analysis of non-GF days preceding and following the event indicated that GF occurrence was inhibited regardless of whether the typhoon was positioned south or north of the region. Conversely, the typhoon’s remote enhancement of land–sea circulation played an essential role in GF formation by moistening the boundary layer—an effect notably absent on non-GF days. Objective classification of mid-to-low-level circulation patterns from 2018 to 2022 (July–August) using T-mode principal component analysis with oblique rotation and self-organizing map showed that GF days corresponded to a circulation pattern occurring on only 2.9% of the total days, confirming the rarity of such synoptic configurations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145729642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
New Indices for the Classification of Cold Surges Over South Korea 韩国寒潮分类新指数
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-025-00422-7
Jahyun Choi, Jee-Hoon Jeong, Tae-Won Park, Changi Lee
{"title":"New Indices for the Classification of Cold Surges Over South Korea","authors":"Jahyun Choi,&nbsp;Jee-Hoon Jeong,&nbsp;Tae-Won Park,&nbsp;Changi Lee","doi":"10.1007/s13143-025-00422-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-025-00422-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Cold surges over South Korea are among the most extreme winter weather events, typically triggered by wave-train propagation or subarctic blocking in the upper troposphere. A widely used classification framework categorizes cold surges based on the upper-tropospheric circulation pattern on the day of onset. To overcome the limitation of this framework, cold surge indices are newly developed by considering the spatiotemporal evolution of circulation features characteristic of each cold surge type. During the pre-onset period (Day − 3 to 0), the daily geopotential height anomalies at 300 hPa are projected onto wave-train and blocking features in the dynamically defined domains, and new wave-train index (WI_n) and blocking index (BI_n) are developed based on this projection. Compared to the original scheme, the newly developed indices more accurately represent the dynamical evolution of upper-tropospheric circulation patterns, significantly reducing the number of Mixed-type cold surges (MT) from 115 to 77 and Unclassified cold surges from 64 to 18. Furthermore, thermodynamic analysis reveals that blocking-type cold surges (BT) exhibit longer duration, colder temperature anomalies, and greater intensity than wave-train-type cold surges (WT), consistent with their quasi-stationary blocking structure. By incorporating the evolution of circulation features before onset, the new indices offer clearer dynamical distinctions between cold surge types and provide a robust, physically interpretable foundation for their improved diagnosis and prediction.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145674976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamic Processes and Multiscale Systems Interaction During an Extreme Heavy Rainfall Event in North China 华北一次极端强降水事件的动力过程与多尺度系统相互作用
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-025-00414-7
Li Feng, Lei Wu, Changliang Shao, Lin Zhang
{"title":"Dynamic Processes and Multiscale Systems Interaction During an Extreme Heavy Rainfall Event in North China","authors":"Li Feng,&nbsp;Lei Wu,&nbsp;Changliang Shao,&nbsp;Lin Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s13143-025-00414-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-025-00414-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The research reveals the origins and persistence of the extremely heavy rainstorm in North China in July 2023 (known as the “23.7” rainstorm). Unlike previous research, it applies scale separation and an advanced energy diagnostic equation to analyze energy transformations among multi-scale weather systems, highlighting their collective impact. Utilizing hourly rainfall data from over 70,000 national stations, along with daily global Final Analysis Data (FNL 1 º × 1 º) from NCEP/NCAR, the study employs Barnes bandpass filtering for atmospheric field separation and an energy equation to diagnose energy conversions. It finds that the “23.7” rainstorm is a complex, multi-scale phenomenon, with the synoptic to meso-α scales scales playing a pivotal role. The storm’s sustenance mechanism resembles the conditional instability of second kind (named R-CISK), focusing on upper tropospheric westerly jet divergence that triggers mid-tropospheric ascent, diverging from CISK’s emphasis on boundary layer friction. This initiates cumulus convection, followed by lower tropospheric jet convergence and typhoon-induced low-pressure trough interaction, uplifting lower layer air and coupling with mid-to-upper level convection. The energy diagnosis shows that large scale and synoptic scale systems are the primary energy sources. The kinetic energy interplay and conversion of buoyancy work and baroclinic energy are the main drivers of energy transformation, essential for storm development. These insights and methods enhance traditional rainstorm models and diagnostic techniques, offering valuable references for future regional heavy rainstorm forecasting and analysis.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13143-025-00414-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145547083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Variable-resolution Approach for KIM with a Stretched Grid 一种基于拉伸网格的可变分辨率KIM方法
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2025-11-13 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-025-00418-3
Suk-Jin Choi, Hyun Nam
{"title":"A Variable-resolution Approach for KIM with a Stretched Grid","authors":"Suk-Jin Choi,&nbsp;Hyun Nam","doi":"10.1007/s13143-025-00418-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-025-00418-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Korean Integrated Model (KIM) is a global numerical weather prediction model that uses the spectral element method on a (quasi-) uniform-resolution cubed-sphere grid. However, to investigate high-resolution prediction performance in the domain of interest, global high-resolution experiments must be considered. These experiments incur a significant computational burden owing to the increased number of grid points and the need for temporal integration at finer time steps. To address this issue, we implemented a stretched variable-resolution grid in the KIM, based on the Schmidt transformation. This approach allows for high-resolution effects in the region of interest while using a coarser grid elsewhere. With the stretched global grid, grid sizes are seamlessly scaled between high and low resolutions.</p><p>In this study, we evaluated the forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency of the variable-resolution KIM and compared these metrics with those of the corresponding uniform-resolution KIM. In the higher-resolution target region, the forecast skill of the variable-resolution grid was similar to that of the 8-km high-resolution uniform grid and even outperformed the 25-km reference-resolution uniform grid in the KIM. Furthermore, the variable-resolution configuration offers a significant improvement in computational efficiency, reducing the total 3-day forecast run time by approximately 88% compared with that of the high-resolution configuration with a uniform grid.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"61 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145511017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Study on the Adjustment of Global Navigation Satellite System Radio Occultation Observation Errors to Improve KIM Forecast Performance 全球导航卫星系统掩星观测误差调整提高KIM预报性能的研究
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-025-00415-6
Eun-Hee Kim, Hyoung-Wook Chun, Jiyoung Son, Yong Hee Lee
{"title":"A Study on the Adjustment of Global Navigation Satellite System Radio Occultation Observation Errors to Improve KIM Forecast Performance","authors":"Eun-Hee Kim,&nbsp;Hyoung-Wook Chun,&nbsp;Jiyoung Son,&nbsp;Yong Hee Lee","doi":"10.1007/s13143-025-00415-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-025-00415-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates observation error adjustment strategies for three recent Global Navigation Satellite System Radio Occultation (GNSS RO) datasets (GRACE-D, Sentinel-6 A, and SPIRE) within the Korean Integrated Model (KIM), aiming to mitigate forecast degradation of mid-tropospheric geopotential height. Experiments were conducted using a low-resolution KIM (July-August 2022), with verification against European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) analyses. The standard GNSS RO error model (20% observation error at the surface and 1% at 10 km) was used as the control (EXP_ctl). Two adjustment strategies were tested: EXP_zfrac, which increased the lowest-level error to 40%, thereby reducing the influence below 10 km; and EXP_obserr, which applied a uniform inflation factor (√2, from 2.2 to 3.1) across all levels to account for doubled observation counts. Relative to the Baseline, EXP_ctl degraded the global 500 hPa geopotential height analysis by 4.01%, while EXP_zfrac and EXP_obserr improved performance by 2.01% and 2.28%, respectively. For 5-day forecasts of Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height, EXP_ctl degraded performance by 0.11%, while EXP_zfrac and EXP_obserr demonstrated improvements of 0.74% and 0.99%, respectively. These findings demonstrate that uniform observation error inflation, which reflects increased data density, is more effective for KIM than selective layer-specific error adjustments.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"61 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13143-025-00415-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145405646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal Analysis of Pre-Monsoon Severe Storms in Northern Thailand using Integrated Crowdsourced and Official Data (2015–2024) 2015-2024年泰国北部季前强风暴的众包与官方数据综合时空分析
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Pub Date : 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1007/s13143-025-00420-9
Nattapon Mahavik, Apichaya Kangerd, Jamorn Kunwilai, Sarawut Arthayakun
{"title":"Spatiotemporal Analysis of Pre-Monsoon Severe Storms in Northern Thailand using Integrated Crowdsourced and Official Data (2015–2024)","authors":"Nattapon Mahavik,&nbsp;Apichaya Kangerd,&nbsp;Jamorn Kunwilai,&nbsp;Sarawut Arthayakun","doi":"10.1007/s13143-025-00420-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13143-025-00420-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Severe convective storms provide a significant weather threat in Northern Thailand, especially during the pre-monsoon season (March–May), however a comprehensive storm database has been unavailable. The absence of comprehensive records complicates the research of storm features, the validation of numerical weather models, and the enhancement of radar-based detection methods. To address this deficiency, we established a spatial-temporal database that integrates official report records with crowdsourced social media data, documenting 259 distinct storm days at the regional level and 478 documented instances at the province level across a decade (2015–2024). Temporal study indicated a distinct seasonal pattern, characterized by an escalation in storm frequency from early March to late April, followed by a reduction in late May. Interannual variability was apparent, with 2018 exhibiting anomalously low activity (6 storm days) in contrast to peak years in 2020–2021 (33–35 days). Statistical analysis revealed substantial disparities in storm occurrences between early and late March (<i>p</i> = 0.0073), while Mann-Whitney U tests demonstrated that 2018 had significantly less storms than the following years (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05). The majority of storms impacted individual provinces (141 occurrences), with a diminishing frequency as the spatial expanse expanded. GIS-generated spatial anomaly maps indicated provincial variations in storm frequency compared to the decadal average. An investigation of atmospheric sounding from ten exceptional multi-province occurrences revealed elevated CAPE values (1215–1876 J/kg) and negative Lifted Index values, indicating conditions favorable to severe convective development. The database differentiates between hail-producing and non-hail-producing storms, facilitating the detection of unique meteorological variables linked to each category. This research establishes a systematic framework for storm recording in areas with limited observational networks, hence enhancing early warning systems, disaster preparedness, and the validation of radar-based storm detection. Future applications encompass comparative research of hail and non-hail storm situations, as well as integration with Thailand’s national radar mosaic to improve severe storm identification.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8556,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences","volume":"61 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145405579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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