菲律宾两次强烈西南季风事件期间极端降雨模拟对 WRF 参数的敏感性

IF 2.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Kevin C. Henson, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, Faye Abigail T. Cruz, Jose Ramon T. Villarin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

天气研究与预报(WRF)模型有许多对降雨预报有重大影响的模型参数。然而,由于参数众多,要确定其中哪些参数对降雨预报和优化至关重要具有挑战性。本研究利用莫里斯一次性(MOAT)全球敏感性分析(GSA)来确定 WRF 模型中七个物理方案的 23 个可调模型参数对模拟降雨量和其他关键大气变量的敏感性。使用 MOAT 平均值和标准偏差作为敏感性度量,并计算了 2012 年 8 月和 2013 年 8 月两次热带气旋(TC)增强的西南季风事件,这两次事件导致菲律宾大马尼拉地区发生灾难性洪水。结果表明,在 23 个模型参数中,与积云方案相关的参数对模拟降雨更为重要,如下沉气流质量通量率乘数(P3)、夹带质量通量率乘数(P4)、上升气流源层上的下沉气流起始高度(P4)和对流可用势能的平均消耗时间(P6)。为了研究模拟两个事件的降雨量的最佳参数,计算了马尼拉市上空的模拟降雨量与全球降水卫星图(GSMaP)观测数据之间的均方根误差(RMSE)。与默认运行相比,性能最佳的参数集能够将 2012 年和 2013 年增强季风事件中马尼拉市降雨量的 RMSE 分别减少约 42% 和 27%。本研究首次深入探讨了 WRF 模型中哪些模型参数对模拟增强季风事件至关重要。这项研究的结果可作为今后对菲律宾极端天气事件进行优化研究的基础。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

The Sensitivity of Extreme Rainfall Simulations to WRF Parameters During Two Intense Southwest Monsoon Events in the Philippines

The Sensitivity of Extreme Rainfall Simulations to WRF Parameters During Two Intense Southwest Monsoon Events in the Philippines

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has numerous model parameters that significantly affect rainfall forecasts. However, the multitude of parameters makes it challenging to identify which of these are critical for rainfall forecasting and optimization. This study utilizes the Morris One-At-a-Time (MOAT) Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to ascertain the sensitivity of the simulated rainfall and other key atmospheric variables to 23 tunable model parameters across seven physics schemes in the WRF model. The MOAT mean and standard deviation were used as sensitivity measures and calculated for two Tropical Cyclone (TC)-enhanced southwest monsoon events in August 2012 and 2013 that resulted in catastrophic flooding over Metro Manila, Philippines. Results show that of the 23 model parameters, the ones more critically important to simulating rainfall are parameters that are related to cumulus schemes such as the multiplier for downdraft mass flux rate (P3), multiplier for entrainment mass flux rate (P4), starting height of downdraft over updraft source layer (P4), and mean consumption time of convective available potential energy (P6). To investigate the optimum parameter for the simulation of rainfall for each of the two events, the root mean square error (RMSE) is computed between the simulated rainfall over Metro Manila and observed data from the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP). The best performing set of parameters was able to reduce the RMSE of rainfall over Metro Manila by about 42% and 27% for the 2012 and 2013 enhanced monsoon events, respectively, relative to the default runs. For the first time, this study provides insight into which model parameters in the WRF model are critically important to the simulation of enhanced monsoon events. The results of this study may serve as a basis for future optimization studies of extreme weather events over the Philippines.

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来源期刊
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
4.30%
发文量
34
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (APJAS) is an international journal of the Korean Meteorological Society (KMS), published fully in English. It has started from 2008 by succeeding the KMS'' former journal, the Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society (JKMS), which published a total of 47 volumes as of 2011, in its time-honored tradition since 1965. Since 2008, the APJAS is included in the journal list of Thomson Reuters’ SCIE (Science Citation Index Expanded) and also in SCOPUS, the Elsevier Bibliographic Database, indicating the increased awareness and quality of the journal.
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