Applied Water Science最新文献

{"title":"Comparative evaluation of decision tree and random forest models for multi-class water quality classification of the Yamuna river","authors":"Shruti Gupta,&nbsp;Gireesh Kumar","doi":"10.1007/s13201-026-02939-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13201-026-02939-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Monitoring the quality of water in rivers is important for environmental sustainability. This study presents a comparison of Decision Tree (DT) and Random Forest (RF) classifiers for multi-class classification of the water quality of the Yamuna River on the basis of temperature, pH, electrical conductivity, BOD, and fecal coliform concentration. To enhance the robustness of the findings, noise of ± 5% Gaussian was injected to simulate real-world variability. Moreover, the impact of class imbalance was addressed using SMOTE oversampling. Model performance was test by stratified fivefold cross validation. The accuracy of decision tree model was found to be 76.30%, precision 76.28%, recall 76.31 and f1 score 72.55% The accuracy, precision, recall and F1-score of Random Forest classifier was 78.00%, 74.59%, 78.00% and 74.41%. The results show ensemble learning improves the stability of classification and the reliability of prediction for multi-class river water quality assessment. The findings of the comparative study indicate the effective use of tree-based algorithms for river monitoring.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8374,"journal":{"name":"Applied Water Science","volume":"16 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13201-026-02939-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148699683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A sustainable carbon–silica based adsorption membrane system derived from asphaltene oil-contaminated sand and acrylic fiber waste for water purification","authors":"Amira M. Mahmoud,&nbsp;Walaa R. Abd-Ellatif,&nbsp;A. A. Ragab,&nbsp;Eman S. Mansor,&nbsp;Ramadan A. Geioushy,&nbsp;Osama A. Fouad","doi":"10.1007/s13201-026-02927-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13201-026-02927-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Asphaltene-contaminated sand poses a significant environmental threat and presents substantial challenges as a waste product. The immediate and serious risks it poses to ecosystems and human health demand urgent action. This study presents an innovative carbon-based SiO₂ composite that is synthesized from crude oil-contaminated sand using a carefully controlled thermal treatment process at 600 °C and 1200 °C, with the temperature difference influencing the material’s properties. The synthesized C@SiO₂ was characterized and evaluated for its ability to effectively remove copper ions (Cu²) from water. We thoroughly examined crucial factors that impact the affinity and efficiency of Cu²⁺ sorption, such as contact time, adsorbent dosage, initial concentration, and competitive adsorption behaviors. It is clearly shown that the maximum adsorption achieved 95.06% after 120 min in the presence of a 2 g/L adsorbent for C@SiO₂-600, while C@SiO₂-1200 exhibited a lower initial efficiency of 33.02%, reflecting the temperature effect. The Langmuir isotherm best fits the data, indicating monolayer adsorption with a maximum capacity of ~ 30.67 mg/g using sample prepared at 600 °C, which decreases with sample prepared at 1200 °C due to potential thermal degradation. Kinetic studies favor the pseudo-second-order model (R² = 0.9996) for C@SiO₂-600, suggesting chemisorption, with a reduced fit with C@SiO₂-1200 . The C@SiO₂-600 adsorbent demonstrates excellent reusability, maintaining 90% efficiency over four cycles, whereas C@SiO₂-1200 loses effectiveness by the third cycle, highlighting the temperature difference’s impact on stability. This study demonstrates an innovative and eco-friendly approach to convert asphaltene-contaminated sand into a valuable resource for water treatment, enhancing waste valorization and improving heavy metal remediation, with C@SiO₂-600 proving more advantageous than C@SiO₂-1200. To further enhance water purification efficiency, the synthesized C@SiO₂ was incorporated into an acrylic fiber waste matrix to fabricate ultrafiltration (UF) membranes. The resulting composite membranes exhibited improved hydrophilicity, mechanical strength, and antifouling behavior compared to pristine acrylic membranes. The modified membranes (NCM1 &amp;NCM2), containing C@SiO₂ prepared at 600 &amp; 1200 °C, respectively, achieved a pure water flux of approximately 60 LMH and demonstrated excellent removal performance, rejecting up to 98% of humic acid. These results confirm that the integration of upcycled C@SiO₂ into acrylic fiber-based membranes not only enhances pollutant removal efficiency but also contributes to sustainable waste valorization and advanced water treatment solutions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8374,"journal":{"name":"Applied Water Science","volume":"16 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13201-026-02927-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148699684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"120-year spatiotemporal evolution of water–settlement interactions in Xinjiang, China","authors":"Raorao Su,&nbsp;Zhen Zhao","doi":"10.1007/s13201-026-02924-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13201-026-02924-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Understanding the long-term co-evolution of water systems and human settlements in arid regions is essential for water security and climate-adaptive planning. This study reconstructs the spatiotemporal dynamics of hydrographic network density (HND) and settlement density (SED) in Xinjiang, China, from 1900 to 2020 using historical maps, geospatial data, and GIS-based spatial analysis. The results show that both HND and SED experienced substantial spatial reorganization over the past 120 years, with the 1960s emerging as a key turning point. Settlement clustering reached its maximum in the 1960s and declined markedly in the 1990s, whereas HND showed an overall increase in spatial clustering. Multi-scale Spearman correlations indicate that HND–SED spatial correspondence peaked in the 1960s and was consistently stronger in oasis–plain areas than in mountainous areas. County-level OLS regression indicates that the dominant factors associated with HND shifted from precipitation in the early periods to cropland density after the 1960s, while cropland density remained the strongest explanatory variable for SED throughout the study period. The post-1990s decline in HND–SED correlation suggests a transition from direct spatial proximity to infrastructure-mediated water accessibility. These findings reveal an institutional–technological transformation of human–water relationships in arid Xinjiang and provide empirical insights for sustainable water management in dryland regions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8374,"journal":{"name":"Applied Water Science","volume":"16 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13201-026-02924-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148690900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Novel ZIF-67/BC/β-CD bio-based nanocomposite for sustainable removal of tetracycline from polluted water","authors":"Abdelazeem S. Eltaweil,&nbsp;Rania Alzain,&nbsp;Manal Fawzy,&nbsp;Eman M. Abd El-Monaem,&nbsp;Nourhan Elmaghrabi","doi":"10.1007/s13201-026-02926-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13201-026-02926-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Antibiotic pollution poses significant ecological and human health risks in aquatic environments, making their removal an urgent environmental challenge. This study presents the development of an eco-friendly and efficient adsorbent fabricated from <i>Hyphaene thebaica</i>plant biochar along with Zeolitic imidazolate framework and Beta-cyclodextrin (ZIF-67/BC-β-CD). The fabricated ZIF-67/BC-β-CD nanocomposite demonstrates remarkable mechanical, thermal, and chemical stability as confirmed via different characterization techniques, including Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, zeta potential, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. To examine the adsorption ability and optimize the performance of ZIF-67/BC-β-CD nanocomposite, a series of adsorption experiments of tetracycline (TC) were conducted. Results revealed that the maximum adsorption capacity of ZIF-67/BC-β-CD nanocomposite for TC is 294.11 mg.g^− 1 at 25 ℃ and pH 5. The findings clarified that the process followed a pseudo-second-order kinetics model with a good fit to the Freundlich isotherm, rather than the Langmuir isotherm, suggesting a combination of physical and chemical adsorption. The adsorption of TC onto ZIF-67/BC-β-CD was found to be governed by a combination of physisorption (electrostatic, hydrophobic, and π–π interactions) and chemisorption (hydrogen bonding and n–π electron donor–acceptor interactions). Furthermore, the adsorbent demonstrated significant regeneration potential after five successive cycles, proving its potential to be used as a sustainable and efficient adsorbent for treating water contaminated with antibiotics.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8374,"journal":{"name":"Applied Water Science","volume":"16 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13201-026-02926-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148690899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Human health risk assessment of potentially toxic elements in drinking water of Hamedan province, Iran","authors":"Hossein Abdipour,&nbsp;Hossein Jafari Mansoorian,&nbsp;Sara Noei Zari","doi":"10.1007/s13201-026-02938-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13201-026-02938-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Access to safe drinking water is a fundamental human right and a critical determinant of public health. This study presents a comprehensive health risk assessment of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in the drinking water distribution networks of Hamedan Province, western Iran. In 2023, 50 drinking water samples were collected across ten counties, representing both urban and rural areas. Concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Hg, and Pb were quantified using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), strictly adhering to quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC) protocols. The analytical results revealed that while mean concentrations of Pb (2.2 µg/L), Hg (1.25 µg/L), Cr (1.1 µg/L), and Cd (0.15 µg/L) were within the WHO permissible limits, arsenic concentrations posed a significant public health concern, with a mean value of 14.6 µg/L, exceeding the WHO guideline of 10 µg/L. The observed abundance sequence was As &gt; Pb &gt; Hg &gt; Cr &gt; Cd. Health risk assessment, conducted using USEPA models, identified non-carcinogenic hazards primarily driven by arsenic, with the Hazard Index (HI) surpassing the safe threshold (HI &gt; 1) for both children (HI = 3.26) and adults (HI = 1.39). Furthermore, the Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk (ILCR) associated with arsenic ingestion was calculated as 1.1 × 10⁻⁴ for children and 9.6 × 10⁻⁶ for adults, exceeding the acceptable USEPA range (10⁻⁶ to 10⁻⁴), particularly for the vulnerable pediatric population. Based on these findings, the following policy and management interventions are recommended: (1) immediate implementation of targeted Water Safety Plans (WSP) focused on arsenic surveillance and mitigation, especially in high-risk areas such as Kabudarahang and Malayer; (2) upgrading water treatment infrastructure with advanced technologies, such as adsorption or coagulation-filtration, specifically tailored for arsenic removal; and (3) establishing a continuous, spatially-informed monitoring program for PTEs, particularly in groundwater sources proximal to industrial and agricultural zones. This study provides essential evidence-based data to support informed policy-making for the protection of water quality and public health in Hamedan Province.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8374,"journal":{"name":"Applied Water Science","volume":"16 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13201-026-02938-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148690902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparative risk assessment of drinking water supply system based on WSP, HACCP and FMEA methods: the case study of Bostan Abad (East Azerbaijan, Iran)","authors":"Samira Sheikhi,&nbsp;Aran Moshiri,&nbsp;Hassan Aslani,&nbsp;Shamseddin Alizadeh","doi":"10.1007/s13201-026-02932-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13201-026-02932-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Considering that drinking water is one of the main rout of diseases transmission, providing safe drinking water is a crucial priority. Therefore, risk assessment and its management approach for drinking water supply systems seems essential. This study was conducted with the aim of identifying and prioritizing the risks in the drinking water supply system of Bostan Abad city. A stepwise methodological framework was applied to assess the risks associated with drinking water system. Three complementary risk assessment tools including Water Safety Plan (WSP), Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP), and Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) were systematically employed to identify, evaluate, and prioritize hazards. The WSP-QA tool was utilized to assess system performance, a decision tree was applied to determine HACCP critical control points, and Risk Priority Number (RPN) were calculated within the FMEA framework to quantify and rank potential risks. The results showed that most of the microbial and physicochemical parameters examined in water resources, transmission line, storage tanks and distribution network were in the optimal range, while in some cases the parameters of turbidity, fluoride and residual chlorine in the transmission line, storage tanks and distribution network violated permissible level. The number of risks identified by WSP, HACCP, and FMEA were 102, 54, and 361, respectively. According to the results, WSP identified all important risks and can be used alone or together with other methods as an effective method for risk assessment of urban and rural water supply systems. However, the results of risk prioritization showed that the three methods are relatively compatible. It is worth mentioning that carrying out the necessary reforms can play an effective role in reducing the risk potential in times of crisis; so it is necessary to receive serious attention from the officials of the water industry.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8374,"journal":{"name":"Applied Water Science","volume":"16 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13201-026-02932-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148690901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction: Semi-quantitative microbiological risk assessment for urban washing and cleaning activities","authors":"Vanda Sampaio,&nbsp;Ana Silvia Pereira Santos,&nbsp;L. Sofia Vieira,&nbsp;Maria Manuela Lima","doi":"10.1007/s13201-026-02928-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13201-026-02928-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":8374,"journal":{"name":"Applied Water Science","volume":"16 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13201-026-02928-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148690903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Size-controlled synthesis of polystyrene nanoparticles via concentration swing method and their size dependent sorption behavior","authors":"Soobin Yang,&nbsp;Ji-Won Son,&nbsp;Seoyoung Park,&nbsp;Hansang Lee,&nbsp;Seonho Lee,&nbsp;Changwoo Kim","doi":"10.1007/s13201-026-02914-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13201-026-02914-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, polystyrene (PS) nanoparticles with precisely controlled sizes and concentrations were synthesized using a concentration swing (CS) method without surface modification. By adjusting the concentration and volume of the CS-PS solution during the solvent shifting process, particle size and concentration were independently controlled. The resulting PS nanoparticles exhibited high reproducibility and stable dispersion without aggregation. Pollutant carrier properties of plastics with various particle sizes were evaluated using methylene blue as a model compound through sorption isotherms. As particle size decreased, the maximum sorption capacity per unit mass increased due to the larger specific surface area. However, the sorption capacity normalized by surface area was significantly higher in bulk plastics, showing nearly 1000-fold greater capacity compared to nanoplastics. Consequently, the difference in mass-based sorption capacity between nanoscale and bulk-scale plastics was limited to approximately a fourfold increase. These results challenge the prevailing notion that nanoparticles inherently pose significantly greater environmental risks due to their large surface area. This study highlights the need for comprehensive environmental management strategies that address plastic particles across a broad range of sizes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8374,"journal":{"name":"Applied Water Science","volume":"16 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13201-026-02914-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148682459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Arsenic removal from wastewater using the bio-based graphene oxide and magnetite nanocomposites: reaction kinetic study","authors":"Muhammad Shahbaz Akhtar,&nbsp;Raja Ameer Zulkifal,&nbsp;Shinho Chung,&nbsp;Seok Dockko,&nbsp;Ali Irfan,&nbsp;M. Khairy,&nbsp;Yoshitaka Nakashima,&nbsp;Muhammad Atif Irshad,&nbsp;Sami A. Al-Hussain,&nbsp;Magdi E. A. Zaki","doi":"10.1007/s13201-026-02925-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13201-026-02925-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Water contamination with arsenic (As) is a global issue challenging the environment, ecosystem, and human health. Among arsenic decontamination techniques, sorption is highly acknowledged, efficienct, low cost and simple technique and gaining much interest in recent decades. Efficacy of newly synthesizd biobased graphene oxide magnetite (bGO/FeNPs) nanocomposites from biomass of <i>Triticum aestivum</i> L. for As removal fromcontaminated water was estimated in present study. The biobased graphene oxides (bGO) via pyrolysis (bGO-P) and chemical exfoliation (bGO-C) processes were synthesized and fabricated with magnetite nanoparticles (FeNPs) in order to synthesize functionalized bGO-P/FeNPs and bGO-C/FeNPs nanocomposites, respectively. Theses green synthesized nanomaterials/nanocomposites were characterized using UV–Visible spectrophotometry, Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray Diffraction (XRD), and Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (SEM–EDX) techniques. Presence of different functional groups such as COOH, O-H, C = C, C-O-C, C-O and C-OH depicted by FTIR spectra evidencing the modification and fabrication of synthesized nanomaterials and nanocomposites. The elemental composition of bGO-C (57.53% C and 31.74% O), bGO-P (23.14% C and 46.56% O), bGO-C/FeNPs (56.64% C, 24.10% O, and 18.17 Fe), and bGO-P/FeNPs (35.22% C, 38.22% O and 21.28% Fe) confirming the presence of carbon, oxygen, and doping of iron in synthesized nanocomposites. Sorption studies were conducted by applying different doses (10, 25 and 75 mg) of synthesized nanocomposites to 100, 250 and 500 ppm of As. To estimate sorption behaviour, data was fitted to Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms. The Langmuir model exhibited a strong correlation (R²), suggesting favorable monolayer adsorption. Both bGO-C/FeNPs and bGO-P/FeNPs nanocomposites demonstrated high removal efficiencies (&gt; 90%), with bGO-C/FeNPs showing better performance. Nevertheless, bGO-P/FeNPs also proved to be an effective and promising solution for As remediation indicating successful incorporation of Fe into the graphene-based matrices. These findings advance sustainable arsenic remediation strategies and provide a strong foundation for future research and policy decisions for the remedation of contaminated water.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8374,"journal":{"name":"Applied Water Science","volume":"16 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13201-026-02925-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148682457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improved forecasting of spring flood volume and low-flow discharge in the Buktyrma river (Kazakhstan) using hydrometeorological and soil–water indicators","authors":"Serik B. Sairov,&nbsp;Nurgalym T. Serikbay,&nbsp;Javier Rodrigo-Ilarri,&nbsp;Sayat K. Alimkulov,&nbsp;Tursyn A. Tillakarim,&nbsp;María-Elena Rodrigo-Clavero","doi":"10.1007/s13201-026-02930-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s13201-026-02930-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Accurate forecasting of spring flood volume and low-flow discharge is essential for water resources management and flood risk mitigation, particularly in mountain basins with snow-dominated hydrology. This study proposes an enhanced statistical approach to predict these hydrological components by integrating both conventional hydrometeorological predictors and additional indicators derived from soil–water storage dynamics. The methodology is applied to the Buktyrma River basin (Kazakhstan), characterized by a spring–summer flood regime with prolonged runoff lasting over two months. Key predictors include cold-season precipitation, mean air temperature during the melt period, flood duration, and a newly introduced soil–water indicator defined as the difference between the discharge at the end of the previous flood and the minimum winter discharge. The proposed multiple regression models demonstrate improved predictive performance for both flood volume and low-flow discharge compared to conventional approaches. These results contribute to advancing hydrological forecasting capabilities under data-scarce conditions typical of Central Asia and provide a basis for operational implementation in other similar catchments. To analyze the relationships between hydrological and meteorological characteristics, correlation analysis, autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and principal component analysis (PCA) were performed. Correlation analysis revealed a moderate positive relationship between flood volume and cold period precipitation (r = 0.61). Autocorrelation analysis revealed the absence of a pronounced interannual dependence in the studied series. PCA results showed that the first principal component explains more than 80% of the data variance, confirming the significant role of precipitation in flood formation.The introduced predictor makes it possible to indirectly account for the depletion of soil moisture capacity in the catchment from the total water capacity of the catchment from the end of the previous year's flood to the beginning of the next flood.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8374,"journal":{"name":"Applied Water Science","volume":"16 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s13201-026-02930-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148682498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}