Douglas A Wolf, Emily W Wiemers, Iliya Gutin, Jennifer Karas Montez, Shannon M Monnat
{"title":"COVID-19 mitigation policies were associated with increased gun violence during 2020-2021.","authors":"Douglas A Wolf, Emily W Wiemers, Iliya Gutin, Jennifer Karas Montez, Shannon M Monnat","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf288","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwaf288","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"1484-1487"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12998107/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145888494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Alexandra Hillcoat, Elaine D Jeon, Maleeka Shrestha, Shaili C Jha, Jae H Kang, Janet W Rich-Edwards, Christy A Denckla
{"title":"Detecting risk for depression and anxiety symptoms among older bereaved women using text-based analysis in the Nurses' Health Study II.","authors":"Alexandra Hillcoat, Elaine D Jeon, Maleeka Shrestha, Shaili C Jha, Jae H Kang, Janet W Rich-Edwards, Christy A Denckla","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf056","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwaf056","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We analyzed free-text narratives about recent bereavement experiences from 1997 women aged 55-73 years (M = 65.9, SD = 4.4) enrolled in the Nurses' Health Study II to identify associations between text characteristics and postbereavement mental health. We applied covariate-adjusted linear mixed effects models to assess the association between word count and expression of positive vs negative sentiment (emotional valence) in first-person bereavement narratives and standardized Patient Health Questionnaire-4 (PHQ-4) total, anxiety, and depression symptom scores over 6 months, stratified by loss of a partner or child vs a close other. Emotional valence was quantified using the Valence Aware Dictionary and sEntiment Reasoner (VADER) algorithm. Among women bereaved of a close other, word count was positively associated with log PHQ-4 total (0.06 SD [95% CI, 0.02-0.09]), anxiety (0.05 SD [95% CI, 0.02-0.09]), and depression (0.06 SD [95 % CI, 0.03-0.09]) symptom scores. Negatively scored emotional valence was associated with elevated log PHQ-4 total (-0.05 SD [95% CI, -0.08 to -0.01]), anxiety (-0.04 SD [95% CI, -0.08 to 0.00]), and depression (-0.04 SD [95% CI, -0.07 to -0.01]) symptom scores. Estimated associations among women bereaved of a partner or child were elevated but underpowered. Qualitative approaches in epidemiologic cohorts offer promise in identifying novel characteristics associated with bereavement outcomes among older women.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"1210-1221"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13137610/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143623092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chuncheng Huang, Yinan Zhou, Yanling Yue, Yanwen Yu, Zimao Wang, Chen Huang, Yiqin Zhu, Keith Bredemeier, Emma R Edenbaum, Thomas Joiner, Nisha Yao, Yong-Jin Liu, Wenting Mu
{"title":"Predicting first onset of suicide attempt among children with suicidal ideation or non-suicidal self-injury using machine learning: a prospective population-based cohort study.","authors":"Chuncheng Huang, Yinan Zhou, Yanling Yue, Yanwen Yu, Zimao Wang, Chen Huang, Yiqin Zhu, Keith Bredemeier, Emma R Edenbaum, Thomas Joiner, Nisha Yao, Yong-Jin Liu, Wenting Mu","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf242","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwaf242","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>While children with suicidal ideation or non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) are at high risk of suicide, most do not attempt suicide. This study aims to identify predictors of first suicide attempts among children with suicidal thoughts or NSSI. We utilized longitudinal data from the Adolescent Brain and Cognitive Development study to examine a broad range of risk factors in children reporting suicidal ideation (N = 344, mean age = 9.93) or NSSI (N = 261, mean age = 9.88) at baseline, predicting first attempt of suicide during a 4-year follow-up. Predictive models were developed through bivariate feature selection followed by Discrete-Time Random Survival Forest machine learning, identifying predictors of subsequent suicide attempts. During the follow-up, 40 of 344 children (11.6%) with suicidal ideation, and 32 of 261 children (12.3%) with NSSI at baseline initiated suicide attempts. For suicidal ideation, risk for attempting suicide increased with caregiver-reported NSSI, witnessing domestic violence, severity of suicidal thoughts, being female, online social screen use, and less parental supervision. For NSSI, risk of suicide attempt increased with witnessing domestic violence, anxiety disorders, caregiver-reported NSSI, being female, and disruptive, impulse control, and conduct disorders. Our findings shed light on the development of population-based suicide prevention strategies for children.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"1329-1341"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13149019/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145399860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Statistical methods for estimating the protective effects of immune markers using test-negative designs.","authors":"Casey E Middleton, Daniel B Larremore","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf280","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwaf280","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>While widely used to study vaccine effectiveness, test-negative designs (TNDs) also provide a platform for identifying and quantifying immunological correlates of protection against disease. A key component of such studies is the protection function, the mathematical relationship between the value of an immunological assay and the relative risk of disease. This function is often estimated using logistic regression, comparing the odds of disease at a given assay value to the odds at assay value zero. Here, we show through mathematical analysis and simulation experiments that logistic regression, while common, fundamentally constrains the functional forms of protection that can be inferred from data in TNDs, potentially leading to overly simplistic estimates of the protection function. To address this limitation, we adapt and analyze a scaled logit model, originally developed for case-control data, as a flexible alternative that allows for greater flexibility in estimating protection functions from TND data. We demonstrate that this approach improves accuracy across a range of biologically plausible protection functions, highlight conditions under which it may fail, and provide practical guidance for researchers to adopt it as a new standard for TND studies evaluating correlates of protection.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"1357-1364"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13149038/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145848726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rosana Aguilera, Andrew Nakamura, Thomas Corringham, Tarik Benmarhnia, Joan A Casey
{"title":"Motor vehicle crashes during wildfire smoke events in California (2010-2020).","authors":"Rosana Aguilera, Andrew Nakamura, Thomas Corringham, Tarik Benmarhnia, Joan A Casey","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf095","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwaf095","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"1458-1461"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13149002/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143956198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jenna Sanborn, Angela Parcesepe, Rachael Piltch-Loeb, Kate Penrose, Yanhan Shen, Andrew Maroko, Denis Nash, McKaylee Robertson
{"title":"The role of institutional trust in shaping the relationship between vaccine concerns and ongoing COVID-19 vaccination in a US national cohort.","authors":"Jenna Sanborn, Angela Parcesepe, Rachael Piltch-Loeb, Kate Penrose, Yanhan Shen, Andrew Maroko, Denis Nash, McKaylee Robertson","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwag012","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwag012","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Concerns about vaccine safety and efficacy and institutional trust are well-established determinants of vaccine uptake, yet little is known about the extent to which institutional trust buffers or amplifies the behavioral effects of vaccine-related uncertainty. Using data from 4,253 adults in the CHASING COVID Cohort who completed their primary vaccine series, we examined whether trust in public health institutions or healthcare providers modified the association between vaccine concerns and receipt of an additional COVID-19 vaccine dose. Adjusted log-binomial regression models estimated risk ratios (aRRs) and 95% CIs, with effect modification assessed on multiplicative and additive scales. The association between not endorsing vaccine concerns and continued vaccination was stronger among those without trust in public health institutions (aRR = 2.38 [95% CI, 1.90-2.97]) than among those with trust (aRR = 1.34 [95% CI, 1.22-1.46]), while antagonism on the additive scale (RERI = $-$0.68; P <.01) indicated overlapping pathways as having no vaccine concerns added little to the likelihood of continued vaccination among those with trust in public health institutions. Provider trust showed modest additive effects (RERI = 0.16; P = .08), suggesting greater-than-additive influences. Together, findings highlight institutional trust as an important contextual determinant shaping how vaccine-related beliefs are enacted and underscoring its importance for promoting ongoing vaccination uptake.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"1397-1405"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13149022/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146002876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Henok Asefa, Hilde K Brustad, Øyvind Erik Næss, Dag S Thelle, René Holst
{"title":"On modeling the shared environment.","authors":"Henok Asefa, Hilde K Brustad, Øyvind Erik Næss, Dag S Thelle, René Holst","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf255","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwaf255","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The shared environment is a key component in estimating the heritability of phenotypic traits from familial data. Unlike the genetic components, defined by the kinship parameters, the shared environment stems from complex, latent processes that vary in nature and impact across traits. This concept is intricate, encompassing latent variables and ambiguous interpretations that differ across scientific disciplines. A common approach assumes a 100% correlation for the shared environment among all family members. However, this model has inherent limitations and may fail to capture the dynamics of the conditions that constitute the shared environment within and across traits. This study explores aspects of the shared environment and adopts a more general approach to modeling its correlation structure. We introduce models that represent different dynamic structures, enabling alternative interpretations of shared environmental influence on the transmission of phenotypic traits. A more realistic correlation structure for the shared environment will result in more accurate and precise heritability estimates for a given trait, as well as deeper understanding of its etiology. We demonstrate the performance of our proposed models through simulations and application to data on body mass index and systolic blood pressure from Norwegian health surveys linked to family data.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"1349-1356"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145511474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Interaction effects are only a piece of the puzzle: reintroducing MAIHDA as a powerful tool to advance understanding of intersectional inequities.","authors":"Ariel L Beccia, Dougie Zubizarreta","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwag022","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwag022","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"1501-1503"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146083816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Religious switching and mental disorders in young adulthood: evidence from Finnish population register data.","authors":"Kaarina Reini, Martin Kolk, Jan Saarela","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf245","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwaf245","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This is the first study to analyze religious switching and sickness allowance (SA) due to mental disorders using register data with ICD-codes. We performed a prospective cohort study based on population born in Finland in 1986-2003 (n = 1 060 280). Each person was observed from age 18 in 2004-2023. Cox proportional hazards models with and without sibling fixed effects, and logistic regression models restricted to individuals who had switched religion, were applied. We observed a 44% higher hazard of SA receipt of non-affiliated individuals, and a 27% higher hazard for those with any other religion, as compared to the majority group of Lutherans at a time point when they had not switched religion. Religious switching was associated with a 38%-118% higher hazard of SA receipt, depending on the type of switch. Results from models with and without sibling fixed effects were similar. The conditional logistic regressions revealed that, the increase in mental health-related SA receipt was steeper before the switch as compared to after the switch. However, the incidence of mental health problems remained elevated after religious switching. These findings suggest that religious switching and poor mental health are interrelated, and that the direction of causality may run in both directions.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"1276-1283"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13148995/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145476631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Correction to: Religiosity, psychological distress, and well-being: evaluating familial confounding with multicohort sibling data.","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf156","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwaf156","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"1505"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13149021/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147508600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}