Oliver Eales, Saras M Windecker, James M McCaw, Freya M Shearer
{"title":"Inferring temporal trends of multiple pathogens, variants, subtypes or serotypes from routine surveillance data.","authors":"Oliver Eales, Saras M Windecker, James M McCaw, Freya M Shearer","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaf119","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Estimating the temporal trends in infectious disease activity is crucial for monitoring disease spread and the impact of interventions. Surveillance indicators routinely collected to monitor these trends are often a composite of multiple pathogens. For example, 'influenza-like illness'-routinely monitored as a proxy for influenza infections-is a symptom definition that could be caused by a wide range of pathogens, including multiple subtypes of influenza, SARS-CoV-2, and RSV. Inferred trends from such composite time series may not reflect the trends of any one of the component pathogens, each of which can exhibit distinct dynamics. Although many surveillance systems routinely test a subset of individuals contributing to a surveillance indicator-providing information on the relative contribution of the component pathogens-trends may be obscured by time-varying testing rates or substantial noise in the observation process. Here we develop a general statistical framework for inferring temporal trends of multiple pathogens from routinely collected surveillance data. We demonstrate its application to three different surveillance systems covering multiple pathogens (influenza, SARS-CoV-2, dengue), locations (Australia, Singapore, USA, Taiwan, UK), scenarios (seasonal epidemics, non-seasonal epidemics, pandemic emergence), and temporal reporting resolutions (weekly, daily). This methodology is applicable to a wide range of pathogens and surveillance systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144245761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Stanley Xu, Lina S Sy, Xuan Huang, Vennis Hong, Bing Han, Katia J Bruxvoort, Bruno Lewin, Kimberly J Holmquist, Lei Qian
{"title":"A three-part model for the self-controlled case series design to estimate and characterize adverse event risk in an overlapping risk period after multiple vaccines: application to ischemic stroke following Pfizer-BioNTech bivalent COVID-19 vaccine and influenza vaccine.","authors":"Stanley Xu, Lina S Sy, Xuan Huang, Vennis Hong, Bing Han, Katia J Bruxvoort, Bruno Lewin, Kimberly J Holmquist, Lei Qian","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaf115","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study proposes a three-part model to assess and characterize the risk of serious adverse events (SAEs) when two vaccines are administered on the same day or in close proximity within a self-controlled case series framework. Simulations showed that the three-part model yielded unbiased relative incidences (RIs) after each vaccination and during the overlapping risk period, while censoring follow-up at dose 2 reduced estimation precision but produced unbiased point estimates. Assuming positive multiplicative and positive additive effects, including the overlapping risk period in the first risk interval overestimated the RI after the first dose by 6.0%-26.0%, while including it in the second overestimated the second RI by 7.3%-34.0%. Overall analysis using the three-part model found no increased ischemic stroke risk 42 days after Pfizer-BioNTech bivalent COVID-19 vaccination or after influenza vaccination or during the overlapping risk period among Kaiser Permanente Southern California members <65 years. Among those with a prior-year history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the overlapping period showed a significantly increased risk (RI=2.74 [95% confidence intervals, 1.07-7.07]), indicating both positive multiplicative and additive effects. Further research is needed to validate these ischemic stroke findings with chart review confirmation and to apply the model to other vaccination scenarios.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144214622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Naiyu Chen, Emma E McGee, Rachel C Nethery, Lorelei A Mucci, Barbra A Dickerman
{"title":"Guideline-based physical activity and health-related quality of life among prostate cancer survivors: a target trial emulation in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study.","authors":"Naiyu Chen, Emma E McGee, Rachel C Nethery, Lorelei A Mucci, Barbra A Dickerman","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaf117","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Prostate cancer and its treatment can impact health-related quality of life. Evidence for physical activity strategies sustained over long periods to improve quality of life is limited. Given the limited feasibility of a randomized trial to answer this question, we emulated a target trial of physical activity strategies based on current clinical guidelines and 6-year quality of life using observational data from 1,549 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study diagnosed with nonmetastatic prostate cancer between 2004-2016. Eligible individuals were free of conditions that may preclude high levels of physical activity at baseline. We estimated 6-year mean physical quality of life scores (based on EPIC-CP symptom domains; range: 1-12, lower is better) under sustained, dynamic physical activity strategies, adjusting for baseline and time-varying variables using the parametric g-formula. Estimated 6-year mean differences (adherence to physical activity recommendations vs. non-adherence) were 0.1 (95% confidence interval: 0.0,0.2) for bowel symptoms, -0.1 (-0.2,0.1) for urinary incontinence, 0.0 (-0.1,0.2) for urinary irritation/obstruction, -0.3 (-0.7,0.1) for sexual symptoms, and -0.1 (-0.2,0.1) for vitality/hormonal symptoms. Estimated 6-year mean differences comparing adherence to physical activity recommendations vs. no intervention (observed physical activity in this population) were close to zero. Adhering to current physical activity recommendations may help to improve 6-year symptoms in the sexual domain, with little expected influence on symptoms in the bowel, urinary, and vitality/hormonal domains.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144214623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Junaid S Merchant, Thu T Nguyen, Katrina Makres, Clare R Evans
{"title":"Intersectional inequities in suicide ideation by race, sexual orientation, and gender among U.S. high school students in the pre and post 2020 waves of the YRBSS: An application of random effects intersectional MAIHDA.","authors":"Junaid S Merchant, Thu T Nguyen, Katrina Makres, Clare R Evans","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwaf114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaf114","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The U.S. faces a youth mental health crisis. Few studies have examined how the disruptions of 2020 impacted existing mental health inequities. I-MAIHDA (intersectional multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy) is a methodological innovation that provides social epidemiology with a theory-informed and rigorous approach to quantify changing intersectional health inequities. Using 2017-2021 data from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, we illustrate the use of logistic I-MAIHDA with random effects to estimate intersectional inequities in suicidal ideation among U.S. high school students by race, sexual orientation, and gender. Before 2020, we found substantial inequities in suicidal ideation prevalence, ranging from 9.8-12.7% among heterosexual boys to over 50% among bisexual Multi-race/Other and White girls. We also found notable changes between the pre-2020 and 2021 waves. Strata at the lowest (heterosexual boys) and highest risk (bisexual girls) showed little change, while middle ranked strata - Black Other/Questioning and lesbian girls, White Other/Questioning boys and girls, and Multi-race/Other gay boys - reported large increases in suicidal ideation. Our findings suggest worsening teen mental health in the 2017-2021 period, particularly among racial and sexual minorities. This study highlights the value of I-MAIHDA and population surveys like YRBSS for understanding changes in intersectional health inequities.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144214624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Paul N Zivich, Stephen R Cole, Jessie K Edwards, Bonnie E Shook-Sa, Alexander Breskin, Michael G Hudgens
{"title":"Bridged treatment comparisons: an illustrative application in HIV treatment.","authors":"Paul N Zivich, Stephen R Cole, Jessie K Edwards, Bonnie E Shook-Sa, Alexander Breskin, Michael G Hudgens","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwae340","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwae340","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Comparisons of treatments, interventions, or exposures are of central interest in epidemiology, but direct comparisons are not always possible, due to practical or ethical reasons. Here, we detail a fusion approach to compare treatments across studies. The motivating example entails comparing the risk of the composite outcome of death, AIDS, or greater than a 50% CD4 cell count decline in people with HIV when assigned antiretroviral triple vs monotherapy, using data from the AIDS Clinical Trial Group (ACTG) 175 (monotherapy vs dual therapy) and ACTG 320 (dual vs triple therapy). We review a set of identification assumptions and estimate the risk difference using an inverse probability weighting estimator that leverages the shared trial arms (dual therapy). A fusion diagnostic based on comparing the shared arms is proposed that may indicate violation of the identification assumptions. Application of the data fusion estimator and diagnostic to the ACTG trials indicates triple therapy results in a reduction in risk, compared with monotherapy, in individuals with baseline CD4 cell counts between 50 and 300 cells mm-3. Bridged treatment comparisons address questions that none of the constituent data sources could address alone, but valid fusion-based inference requires careful consideration of the underlying assumptions.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"1687-1694"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142103425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tarang Parekh, Hong Xue, Rishi K Wadhera, Lawrence J Cheskin, Alison E Cuellar
{"title":"From policy to practice: assessing the state innovation models initiative's early success in incorporating social determinants of health in ASCVD hospitalizations in the United States.","authors":"Tarang Parekh, Hong Xue, Rishi K Wadhera, Lawrence J Cheskin, Alison E Cuellar","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwae313","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwae313","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The study examines effects of the Centers for Medicaid and Medicare Services State Innovation Models (SIM) on capturing social risk factors in adults hospitalized with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Using a difference-in-differences (DID) approach with propensity score weights, the study compared documentation of secondary diagnosis of social determinants of health (SDOH)/social factors using ICD-9 V codes (\"SDOH codes\") in adults hospitalized with ASCVD as a primary diagnosis (n = 1 485 354). Data were gathered from January 1, 2010, to September 30, 2015, covering the period before and after the SIM implementation in October 2013. From January 2010 to September 2015, SDOH codes were infrequently utilized among adults with ASCVD (0.55%; 95% CI, 0.43%-0.67%). The SDOH codes with ASCVD increased from pre- to postperiod in SIM states (0.56%-0.93%) and comparison states (0.46%-0.56%). State Innovation Models implementation was associated with greater improvement in SDOH codes utilization (adjusted OR 1.30; 95% CI, 1.18-1.43) during ASCVD hospitalizations. The odds of SDOH codes utilization were 86% higher in emergency department admissions (AOR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.76-1.97) than in routine admissions with ASCVD. Findings were similar when limiting population to older adults (≥65 years) enrolled in Medicare (AOR 1.50; 95% CI, 1.31-1.71), whereas not significant for Medicaid beneficiaries. The study points to challenges for healthcare providers in documenting SDOH in adults with ASCVD.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"1709-1716"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142078792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Perspectives on \"harm\" in personalized medicine.","authors":"Aaron L Sarvet, Mats J Stensrud","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwad162","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwad162","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Avoiding harm is an uncontroversial aim of personalized medicine and other epidemiologic initiatives. However, the precise mathematical translation of \"harm\" is disputable. Here, we use a formal causal language to study common, but distinct, definitions of harm. We clarify that commitment to a definition of harm has important practical and philosophical implications for decision-making. We relate our practical and philosophical considerations to ideas from medical ethics and legal practice.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"1743-1748"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12133289/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9840866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Melanie A de Lange, Neil M Davies, Louise A C Millard, Kate Tilling
{"title":"A hypothesis-free approach to identifying potential effects of relative age in school year: an instrumental variable phenome-wide association study in the UK Biobank.","authors":"Melanie A de Lange, Neil M Davies, Louise A C Millard, Kate Tilling","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwae331","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwae331","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A child's relative age within their school year (\"relative age\") is associated with educational attainment and mental health. However, hypothesis-driven studies often re-examine the same outcomes and exposure, potentially leading to confirmation and reporting biases and missing unknown effects. Hypothesis-free outcome-wide analyses can potentially overcome these limitations. We conducted a hypothesis-free investigation of the effects of relative age within school year. We performed an instrumental variable (IV) phenome-wide association study in the UK Biobank (participants aged 40-69 years at baseline), using the PHESANT software package. We created 2 IVs for relative age: being born in September vs August (n = 64 075) and week of birth (n = 383 309). Outcomes passing the Bonferroni-corrected P value threshold for either instrument were plotted to identify a discontinuity at the school year transition. Thirteen traits associated with at least 1 of the instruments showed a discontinuity. Previously identified effects included those with a younger relative age being less likely to have educational qualifications and more likely to have started smoking at a younger age. We detected a few associations not explored by previous studies. For example, those of younger relative age had better lung function as adults. Hypothesis-free approaches could help address confirmation and reporting biases in epidemiology.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"1673-1680"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12133288/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142103422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Natalie V Scime, Beili Huang, Hilary K Brown, Erin A Brennand
{"title":"Association of parity with the timing and type of menopause: a longitudinal cohort study.","authors":"Natalie V Scime, Beili Huang, Hilary K Brown, Erin A Brennand","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwae320","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwae320","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We investigated the time-varying association between parity and timing of natural menopause, surgical menopause, and premenopausal hysterectomy among 23 728 women aged 40-65 years at enrollment in the Alberta's Tomorrow Project cohort study (2000-2022), using flexible parametric survival analysis. Overall, natural menopause was most common by study end (57.2%), followed by premenopausal hysterectomy (11.4%) and surgical menopause (5.3%). Risks of natural menopause before age 50 years were elevated for 0 births (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] at age 45, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.18-1.49) and 1 birth (aHR age 45, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.07-1.38), but similar for ≥3 births (aHR age 45, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.85-1.06) compared to 2 births (reference). Elevated risks of surgical menopause before age 45 years for 0 births (aHR age 40, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.09-1.69) and 1 birth (aHR age 40, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.85-1.45) attenuated when excluding women with past infertility or recurrent pregnancy loss, and reduced risks were observed over time for ≥3 births (aHR age 50, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.75-0.94). Risks of premenopausal hysterectomy were lower before age 50 years for 0 births (aHR age 45, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.76-0.88) but elevated after age 40 years for ≥3 births (aHR age 50, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.08-1.45). These complex associations necessitate additional research on the sociobiological impacts of childbearing on gynecologic health.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"1726-1734"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12133278/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142091413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jennifer R Rider, Asher Wasserman, Lukas Slipski, Gillis Carrigan, Raymond Harvey, Xiaolong Jiao, Lynn McRoy, Nelson D Pace, Lauren Becnel, Amanda Bruno, Joy C Eckert, Priscilla Hodgkins, Purva Jain, David Merola, Osayi E Ovbiosa, Yanina Natanzon, Simone Pinheiro, Jameson Quinn, Carla Rodriguez-Watson, Ulka Campbell
{"title":"Emulations of oncology trials using real-world data: a systematic literature review.","authors":"Jennifer R Rider, Asher Wasserman, Lukas Slipski, Gillis Carrigan, Raymond Harvey, Xiaolong Jiao, Lynn McRoy, Nelson D Pace, Lauren Becnel, Amanda Bruno, Joy C Eckert, Priscilla Hodgkins, Purva Jain, David Merola, Osayi E Ovbiosa, Yanina Natanzon, Simone Pinheiro, Jameson Quinn, Carla Rodriguez-Watson, Ulka Campbell","doi":"10.1093/aje/kwae346","DOIUrl":"10.1093/aje/kwae346","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>By evaluating published emulations of oncology randomized control trial (RCT) studies in which both the active and comparator groups are sourced from real-world data (RWD) and target trial results are available for benchmarking, this systematic review aims to gain insight into factors related to emulation performance. Thirteen oncology emulation studies using various types of RWD were identified through an online database search of PubMed through 2022. Based on the ROBINS-I tool, most studies (n = 8) had a serious risk of overall bias driven by risk of bias from confounding. Approximately half of the studies (n = 6) fully proxied the RCT entry criteria. Of 11 RWD studies that provided sufficient detail to quantify emulation performance, the emulation hazard ratio (HR) estimate fell within the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the trial estimate in 9 of the studies. There were no clear trends between risk of bias or degree to which the entry criteria were proxied and emulation performance. Findings may have been influenced by publication bias and researcher degrees of freedom, as only one emulation study preregistered its protocol. Tools for comprehensively characterizing factors that affect emulation performance, including the real-world clinical context as it relates to the RCT research question, are needed to evaluate the feasibility of a RCT emulation. This article is part of a Special Collection on Pharmacoepidemiology.</p>","PeriodicalId":7472,"journal":{"name":"American journal of epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"1783-1793"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142278946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}