Energy and climate change最新文献_第7页

Is energy planning consistent with climate goals? Assessing future emissions from power plants in Latin America and the Caribbean 能源规划是否符合气候目标？评估拉丁美洲和加勒比地区发电厂未来的排放量

IF 5.8

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100151

Catalina Marinkovic , Adrien Vogt-Schilb

{"title":"Is energy planning consistent with climate goals? Assessing future emissions from power plants in Latin America and the Caribbean","authors":"Catalina Marinkovic , Adrien Vogt-Schilb","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100151","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100151","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Ten Latin American and Caribbean countries have pledged to achieve carbon neutrality since 2019. We assess whether electricity planning in the region has evolved towards reaching this goal. We compare power generation capacity in 2023 with announced plans in 2019. We then estimate committed emissions from existing and planned power plants – emissions that would result from the normal operation of these plants during their typical lifetime – and compare them to emissions from power generation in published IPCC scenarios. We find that fossil fuel planned capacity has decreased by 47 % since 2019, compared to an increase of 24 % of planned renewable power plants. Countries with net-zero pledges tended to cancel more fossil fuel power capacity. But existing plants in the region will emit 6.7 GtCO<sub>2</sub> during their lifespan, and if all planned fossil fuel plants are built, they will add 4.9 GtCO<sub>2</sub>. The total 11.6 GtCO<sub>2</sub> emissions exceeds median carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C-consistent IPCC pathways (2.3 and 4.3 GtCO<sub>2</sub>). Natural gas power plants are the largest contributor to existing (62 %) and planned (75 %) emissions. We evaluate emissions reduction strategies to achieve carbon budgets. Assuming no new coal plants come into operation, announced gas and oil projects are canceled at the same rate as in the past four years, all fossil fueled plant lifetimes are reduced by 10 years, and all new natural gas displaces existing coal, committed emissions fall by 67 %, meeting the median 2 °C budget, but still falling short of the median 1.5 °C budget. While progress is being made, energy planning in the region is not yet consistent with global climate goals as reflected by IPCC scenarios.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100151"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142167501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Development of a coupled agent-based generation expansion planning tool with a power dispatch model 开发基于代理的发电扩展规划工具和电力调度模型

IF 5.8

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100156

Ali Ghaffari , Fengwei Hung , Y.C. Ethan Yang , Jin Lu , Xingpeng Li

{"title":"Development of a coupled agent-based generation expansion planning tool with a power dispatch model","authors":"Ali Ghaffari , Fengwei Hung , Y.C. Ethan Yang , Jin Lu , Xingpeng Li","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100156","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100156","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Power companies need to adapt their generation expansion planning in response to changing market, climate and regulatory conditions as global warming, electrification, and technology breakthroughs continue. To fortify energy system resilience, it is critical to understand the collective effects of their autonomous decisions on power systems operations and reliability. To this end, we developed an integrated framework, an agent-based model (ABM) coupled with a power dispatch model (PDM) (referred to as ABM-PDM), tested on the Texas 123-bus transmission system in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region. Agents (power generation companies) can invest in natural gas, solar, and wind technologies to maximize profits from 2021 to 2050, using market information from the PDM based on their capital budget and perceived costs, financial incentives for renewable energy, and climate risks. We applied ABM-PDM to assess how power companies respond to future technological advancements and climate change. After demonstrating model credibility, we explored 25 combinations of cost and capacity factors reflecting a variety of technological evolution trajectories. Results indicated that to replace wind over solar for replacing existing fossil-fuel power plants due to lower costs and higher capacity factors. Additionally, as more agents invest, the energy market becomes more competitive, and system-wide electricity prices drop. We also analyzed the impacts of temperature increases on investments using seven projections, from 0 to 6 °C, during the modeling period. The results showed that as temperatures rise, agents invest more to accommodate the increasing loads. ABM-PDM incorporates risk attitude and learning into companies’ decision-making, providing additional information on generation expansion for the non-optimal future of power systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100156"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142150830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The role of electrification and the power sector in U.S. carbon neutrality 电气化和电力部门在美国碳中和中的作用

IF 5.8

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100155

Kowan T.V. O'Keefe , Gokul Iyer , Kathleen M. Kennedy , Yang Ou , Alicia Zhao , Ryna Cui , Haewon McJeon , Nathan Hultman

{"title":"The role of electrification and the power sector in U.S. carbon neutrality","authors":"Kowan T.V. O'Keefe , Gokul Iyer , Kathleen M. Kennedy , Yang Ou , Alicia Zhao , Ryna Cui , Haewon McJeon , Nathan Hultman","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100155","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100155","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The United States has pledged to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. We examine a series of net-zero CO<sub>2</sub> scenarios to investigate the impact of advanced electrification of end-use sectors on the dynamics of America's net-zero transition through 2050. Specifically, we use an integrated assessment model, GCAM-USA, to explore how advanced electrification can influence the evolution of the electricity system in pursuit of net-zero. State-level resolution for end-use demand sectors and energy transformation is a key feature of GCAM-USA that allows for elucidation of the variation in end-use electrification across states. All scenarios in this study are designed to be consistent with the modeling protocol for the Energy Modeling Forum Study 37 model inter-comparison project. Our scenarios show the scale of transformation in the power sector with average annual capacity additions reaching 121-143 GW/year and 172-190 GW/year in 2050 net-zero CO<sub>2</sub> scenarios and 2045 net-zero CO<sub>2</sub> scenarios, respectively, in the 2040s — approximately three to five times the 2021-2023 average. In 2050 net-zero CO<sub>2</sub> scenarios, electrification rates in 2050 range from 15-48 % for transportation, 65-83 % for buildings, and 20-38 % for industry. If net-zero CO<sub>2</sub> is achieved in 2045, transportation, buildings, and industry are 27-53 %, 78-84 %, and 41-53 % electrified by 2050, respectively. Advanced electrification of end-use sectors can reduce the magnitude of reliance on negative emissions by driving down residual positive emissions by mid-century. Altogether, our results demonstrate that a net-zero transition in the United States will require deep and rapid structural changes to the energy system.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100155"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142163151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The role of the iron and steel sector in achieving net zero U.S. CO2 emissions by 2050 钢铁行业在 2050 年实现美国二氧化碳净零排放中的作用

IF 5.8

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100152

Siddarth Durga, Simone Speizer, Jae Edmonds

{"title":"The role of the iron and steel sector in achieving net zero U.S. CO2 emissions by 2050","authors":"Siddarth Durga, Simone Speizer, Jae Edmonds","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100152","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100152","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The U.S. steel sector is a hard-to-abate sector because of its heavy dependence on fossil fuels and its high capital requirements. In 2015, the sector was one of the major carbon emitters, contributing 10 % of the U.S. industrial CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. The ability to decarbonize the U.S. iron and steel sector directly affects the ability of the U.S. to achieve economy-wide net zero CO<sub>2</sub> by 2050. In this paper, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to analyze different U.S. steel sector decarbonization pathways under varying technology, policy, and demand futures. These pathways provide insights on how various low-carbon steelmaking technologies such as those using carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen, or scrap could help reduce U.S. steel emissions by mid-century. In our primary decarbonization pathway, we find that nearly all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking capacity is fully integrated with CCS by 2050. However, without CCS availability, almost all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking is phased-out by 2050 and is replaced by hydrogen-based production. Scrap-based production continues to remain vital across both of these decarbonization pathways. Furthermore, we find that demand reduction could help reduce the required levels of CCS and hydrogen-based production in the decarbonization pathways. Implementation of advanced energy efficiency measures could help substantially reduce the sector's energy usage. Finally, we observe that addressing the embodied carbon transfer associated with steel imports will be crucial for fully decarbonizing the U.S. steel sector.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100152"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142150829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Pathways for the US food processing sector under economy-wide net zero in a multisector dynamic framework 多部门动态框架下全经济净零条件下美国食品加工业的发展路径

IF 5.8

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100150

Siddarth Durga, Simone Speizer, Xin Zhao, Stephanie Waldoff, Jae Edmonds

{"title":"Pathways for the US food processing sector under economy-wide net zero in a multisector dynamic framework","authors":"Siddarth Durga, Simone Speizer, Xin Zhao, Stephanie Waldoff, Jae Edmonds","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100150","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100150","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The food processing sector is a large, energy-consuming and CO<sub>2-</sub>emitting industrial sector. The sector was estimated to account for 6 % of US industrial CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in 2020. The sector uses significant amounts of fossil fuels, biomass, and electricity to perform a range of operations such as baking, drying, and refrigeration. Additionally, the sector is tightly linked to the agriculture and land use sectors. In this analysis, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a coupled, energy-economy-agriculture-land-use-water-climate systems model, to examine the role of the food processing sector in the EMF37 2050 US net-zero CO<sub>2</sub> scenario. We explore the implications for technology and fuel choice and go beyond to examine US food consumption, food prices, and land-use change. To better understand the sensitivity of our results to alternative developments, we assess multiple sensitivity scenarios for the US and other world regions, with a focus on varied food processing energy intensity pathways.</p><p>We find that along the EMF37 US net-zero path, the food processing sector electrifies the majority of its process heat. We also find that the industry phases-down natural gas use and completely phases-out coal. Additionally, we observe a marginal decrease in US food consumption per capita relative to our reference scenario. This primarily occurs due to the increase in consumer food prices resulting from increased demand for purpose-grown biomass crops, which compete with food crops for land resources. Finally, cumulative energy savings of 4.2 EJ are achieved from 2020 to 2050 in a scenario in which the US reduces its food processing intensity to EU-15 levels.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100150"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142011154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Technological and policy directions for scaling-up blue hydrogen in India 在印度推广蓝氢的技术和政策方向

IF 5.8

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100149

Ajay K. Singh

引用次数: 0

Towards developing a national climate change framework in Tanzania: Evidence from taxing energy sources to enhance use of renewable energies as a mitigation policy 在坦桑尼亚制定国家气候变化框架：从征收能源税以加强可再生能源的使用作为缓解政策的证据

IF 5.8

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100148

Howard Abel Shimba , Noah Makula Pauline , Boniface Luhende

{"title":"Towards developing a national climate change framework in Tanzania: Evidence from taxing energy sources to enhance use of renewable energies as a mitigation policy","authors":"Howard Abel Shimba , Noah Makula Pauline , Boniface Luhende","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100148","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100148","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A stable mitigation policy requires an adequate legal framework for climate change. The energy sector contributes to about 80 % of total GHGs. The use of renewable energies is a solution to GHG reduction. A carbon tax has been acknowledged as one of the best mitigation policies as it tends to shift the tax burden to polluters and yields revenue, which relieves households.</p><p>This study focused on developing Tanzania's national climate change framework by taxing energy sources to enhance the use of renewable energies as the mitigation policy. The study draw extensively on interviews and documentary data sources that reviewed international instruments, regional instruments, legislations, the Constitution of the United Republic of Tanzania, the National Energy Policy of 2015, the National Environmental Policy of 2021, Tax Statutes and the Tanzania Development Vision of 2025.</p><p>The study revealed that, first, there are supplies not been carbon taxed irrespective of their qualification. Second, there are chapters within policies and sections within laws that hinder access to renewable energies. Third, there is no guiding framework that coordinates approaches across sectors and levels of government.</p><p>The study concludes that from 2023, 9.7 % were using renewable energies and by 2033 getting to 80 % usage, requires investment leading to redressed policies and laws aligning to the introduced national climate change framework towards renewable energy access for carbon reduction.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100148"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141984796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

IF 5.8

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100147

Emma Starke , Mark Jaccard , Jotham Peters

{"title":"Similarities and contrasts: Comparing U.S. and Canadian paths to net-zero","authors":"Emma Starke , Mark Jaccard , Jotham Peters","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100147","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100147","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Canada and the United States (US) have both committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2050 but neither have implemented policy sufficient to reach this target. Knowledge of the technical steps to deep decarbonization is needed alongside an understanding of how each country might be similarly and uniquely impacted by a transition to net zero emissions, contingent on specific technology advancements or policy decisions. We use the computable general equilibrium model, gTech, to simulate sixteen net zero scenarios for Canada and the US varying by technology and policy assumptions as part of the energy modelling forum 37 (EMF37) study. We find that both economies similarly continue to grow in all scenarios out to 2050 with the rate of growth largely determined by assumptions on negative emissions technology. Sectoral impacts differ between countries as a result of current emissions and GDP profiles in combination with assumed net zero scenario policy and technology advancements. In the US, we find that efficient use of electricity is a slightly more important predictor of economic outcomes, while Canada's economy is marginally more responsive to cost and performance improvements in carbon capture technologies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100147"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141844800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Toward just and equitable mobility: Socioeconomic and perceptual barriers for electric vehicles and charging infrastructure in the United States 实现公正公平的交通：美国电动汽车和充电基础设施的社会经济和观念障碍

IF 5.8

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100146

Dong-Yeon Lee , Melanie H. McDermott , Benjamin K. Sovacool , Raphael Isaac

{"title":"Toward just and equitable mobility: Socioeconomic and perceptual barriers for electric vehicles and charging infrastructure in the United States","authors":"Dong-Yeon Lee , Melanie H. McDermott , Benjamin K. Sovacool , Raphael Isaac","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100146","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100146","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Based on a large-scale public survey, we identify and quantify the significance of key factors associated with the deployment of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure. Our results indicate that individual characteristics, such as income, age, region, and single vs. multi-family housing type can significantly affect electric vehicle purchase preferences, especially those concerning overnight charging and perceptions of benefits and barriers. Moreover, our results challenge earlier findings in the literature by showing how certain elements, such as expected electric driving range, certain travel behaviors (e.g., driving distance, destination types), the most common perceived benefits (e.g., cleaner air) or barriers (e.g., reliability concerns), and preferred location for public charging seem to not vary much or at all with the socioeconomic, demographic, and geographical variables examined in this study. We conclude with the implications for policies to advance equitable vehicle electrification. Our findings underscore the importance of lower-cost models of electric vehicles, home and public charging access, charging infrastructure planning, more integrated analysis of interlinked housing and transportation needs and solutions, the availability of alternative transportation modes, and the potential role of gas stations for electric vehicles. We encourage others to build on these results and have shared our complete survey instrument as an added contribution.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100146"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666278724000229/pdfft?md5=ffeedc6306bc107bd78dd090abcd70b6&pid=1-s2.0-S2666278724000229-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141713867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Wastewater hydrogen nexus (WwHeN): Greening the wastewater industry via integration with the hydrogen economy✰ 废水氢联系（WwHeN）：通过与氢经济的融合实现污水处理行业的绿色化✰。

IF 5.8

Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100145

Naushita Sharma, Paul Lemar, Sachin Nimbalkar

引用次数: 0