Energy and climate change最新文献

{"title":"Citizens' creative capital in energy governance: enacting inclusive energy governance in the Netherlands and France","authors":"Adrien Chanteloup ,&nbsp;Lea Diestelmeier ,&nbsp;Goda Perlaviciute","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100218","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100218","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Citizens are, and will be, increasingly impacted by climate change and the energy transition. However, citizens are more often excluded from the governance of the energy transition, which is typically centralized and vertically organised. A (transition towards a) modified energy system is usually not something addressed at citizen level. This article explores the potential narratives of citizens concerning (new) forms of energy governance. Our bottom-up qualitative approach gathered perspectives from randomly selected Dutch and French citizens through semi-structured interviews, on the existing and future energy governance models. Participants advocated for the implementation of energy efficiency and sufficiency strategies. Both strategies imply radical shifts in energy governance, essentially for what and how energy is produced and used. Next, participants proposed original ideas for enacting a more inclusive, democratic and just energy governance, demonstrating a high capability to imagine different futures for themselves and society in relation to energy and energy governance. We identify citizens’ “creative capital” for energy governance and argue that this brings added value for designing energy governance for a more socially, politically and environmentally sustainable energy system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100218"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145219036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Research progress of integrated assessment models in food-water-energy-environment analysis: A bibliometric analysis","authors":"Songhua Huan ,&nbsp;Liwen Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100215","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100215","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Food-Water-Energy-Environment (FWEE) analysis plays a crucial role in understanding the interconnected challenges of resource scarcity, sustainability, and climate change. However, these challenges are often complex and interdependent, making it difficult for a single model to capture their full dynamics. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have emerged as a promising approach to address this issue. As a result, IAMs within the FWEE framework have become a major research focus, attracting considerable academic attention. Despite this, current research is fragmented and lacks a cohesive framework. To fill this gap, we conducted a bibliometric analysis using data from the Web of Science Core Collection, reviewing IAMs research in the FWEE domain from 1990 to 2024. Utilizing VOSviewer and CiteSpace for data visualization and assessment, we mapped the research landscape of IAMs in FWEE. Our study employed various techniques, such as co-occurrence analysis, clustering, and burst analysis, to: (1) identify key research trends, journals, and domains; (2) map the leading countries, their collaborations, and prominent authors and institutions; (3) highlight the foundational knowledge system, focusing on model development, emerging technologies, and research methods, noting a shift from early theoretical analyses to empirical studies on emerging technologies and policy analysis; and (4) pinpoint current research hotspots, including energy technology, social costs, and technical change, while providing an overview of research evolution and quality distribution. Finally, we suggest that future studies focus on advancing IAMs development for FWEE, especially with the integration of artificial intelligence. This study offers a comprehensive framework of existing research, providing valuable insights for future theoretical exploration and innovative applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100215"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future changes in surface solar radiation over India: A bias-corrected and downscaled assessment of CMIP6 projections for renewable energy planning","authors":"Ashwin Vijay Jadhav,&nbsp;Rohini Lakshman Bhawar","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100213","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100213","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding future changes in surface solar radiation (SSR) is crucial for long-term renewable energy planning, especially in solar-rich countries such as India. However, high-resolution and bias-corrected SSR datasets for India remain scarce, limiting accurate assessment of future solar energy potential. In this study, we develop daily bias-corrected and statistically downscaled (BCD) dataset of SSR at a spatial resolution of 0.25°×0.25° for the Indian subcontinent. Simulations from nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-6 (CMIP6) climate models are used for the historical period (1951–2014) and future period (2021–2100) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5). The BCD was implemented using the Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) method at each fine-resolution grid point, improving local-scale variability representation. ERA5’s surface solar radiation downward (SSRD) is used as the reference dataset to downscale, bias correct, and validate the models. Evaluation of BCD dataset against observations showed substantial performance improvement, with correlation coefficients increasing from 0.65 to 0.81 (raw) to 0.89–0.94 (corrected) and reducing root mean square error across all models. These improvements in dataset reliability lay a strong foundation for analysing future SSR dynamics under different climate scenarios.</div><div>Future projections indicate a progressive decline in SSR with increasing emission intensity: modest changes under SSP1–2.6, with slight positive anomalies over parts of northern India, and pronounced reductions of up to –10 % under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, particularly over central, southern, and eastern India. Decadal trends reveal average declines of –0.11 %, –0.52 %, and –0.60 % per decade under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively, with a temporary slowdown in mid-century (2041–2060) under SSP2–4.5 followed by renewed intensification. The resulting high-resolution BCD dataset not only represents a technical advancement in the robust downscaling of CMIP6 SSR for India but also provides a practical resource to guide solar park siting, optimize grid integration strategies, and support climate-resilient energy policy development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100213"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145026760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Citizen participation in local energy communities: A social identity and pro-environmental behaviour joint perspective","authors":"Catarina Neves ,&nbsp;Tiago Oliveira ,&nbsp;Stylianos Karatzas","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100212","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100212","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Local energy communities present great potential in changing the current energy paradigm, contributing to a more decarbonized and decentralized system aligned with the sustainable development goals. Given this, it is highly relevant to understanding the antecedents of citizens' intention to participate in these communities. Therefore, this work focuses on two main elements of these communities – social and environmental. Hence, citizen behaviour is analysed in light of the social identity and pro-environmental behaviour theories. Moreover, the knowledge dimension is assessed as a moderator of those relationships. The model is tested using a sample of 400 individuals from Greece using structural equation modelling. The work uncovers the relevance of community commitment, trust, and pro-environmental behaviour. Additionally, knowledge is found to be a strong moderator. These findings are especially relevant for practitioners to comprehend better and boost citizens' willingness to participate in local energy communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100212"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144907759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transportation in net-zero emissions futures: Insights from the EMF-37 model intercomparison study","authors":"Christopher Hoehne ,&nbsp;Matteo Muratori ,&nbsp;John Bistline ,&nbsp;Carol Lenox ,&nbsp;David L. McCollum ,&nbsp;Morgan Browning ,&nbsp;Kara Podkaminer ,&nbsp;Robert H. Beach ,&nbsp;Robbie Orvis ,&nbsp;Shiqi Ou ,&nbsp;Page Kyle ,&nbsp;Sharyn Lie ,&nbsp;Megan Mahajan ,&nbsp;Haewon McJeon ,&nbsp;Catherine Ledna ,&nbsp;Marc Melaina ,&nbsp;Yongxia Cai ,&nbsp;Christopher Ramig ,&nbsp;Aniss Bahreinian ,&nbsp;Nadejda Victor ,&nbsp;John Weyant","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100211","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100211","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Transportation is currently the largest source of U.S. anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, at about a third of the total. Achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century will require substantial reductions in transportation emissions across passenger and freight travel. Here we leverage a model intercomparison study to explore the role of transportation in scenarios achieving net-zero economy-wide CO₂ emissions by 2050. We find the transport sector is poised to play the most significant role in reducing demand-side emissions, mostly driven by technology substitution, as modeling results suggest a limited role for mode shifting and for reduced use of personal car travel in the U.S. Among various technology solutions, models show agreement that passenger on-road vehicles will largely transition to electric vehicles (EVs), while solutions to decarbonize heavier travel modes are more diverse and include greater use of liquid biofuels and hydrogen. Research should continue to investigate the evolution of on-road electrification, the role of biofuels and hydrogen across heavier travel modes, and the role of mode shifting and travel behavior change to support personal transportation decarbonization at national and regional scales to temper the rapid growth in clean fuel and electricity demand.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100211"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144925609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"JMIP 2 Part 1: Technology uncertainty and robustness in Japan’s net-zero pathways","authors":"Masahiro Sugiyama ,&nbsp;Hiroto Shiraki ,&nbsp;Shinichiro Fujimori ,&nbsp;Kenichi Wada ,&nbsp;Tao CAO ,&nbsp;Eamon Frazer ,&nbsp;Hiroshi Hamasaki ,&nbsp;Etsushi Kato ,&nbsp;Yuhji Matsuo ,&nbsp;Osamu Nishiura ,&nbsp;Tatsuya Okubo ,&nbsp;Ken Oshiro ,&nbsp;Takashi Otsuki ,&nbsp;Fuminori Sano ,&nbsp;Hiroki Yoshida","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100210","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100210","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Japan’s commitment to reach net-zero 2050 hinges on innovation in emerging, uncertain technologies. Yet, no study has systematically examined uncertainties in technology development for Japan’s net-zero goal in a multi-model framework. Here, we close this research gap by presenting the results of the Japan Model Intercomparison Project (JMIP) 2. Across models and technology scenarios with wide spreads in costs of emerging technologies, we consistently identify the following robust strategies for net zero: (1) reducing unabated fossil fuels, (2) improving economy-wide energy efficiency, (3) decarbonizing the power sector, and (4) deploying carbon dioxide removal. We also find that although the expansion of variable renewable energy and end-use electrification is robust, the precise level in 2050 remains uncertain. Using technology sensitivity scenarios, we show that the marginal cost of abatement (or carbon price) is significantly affected by the availability of carbon removal. Affordability of hydrogen and ammonia imports significantly affects primary energy supply in some models, underscoring a policy architecture that can flexibly adapt as the techno-economic landscape evolves.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100210"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144810499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bioenergy pathways within United States net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study","authors":"Ronald D. Sands ,&nbsp;Liz Wachs ,&nbsp;Patrick Lamers ,&nbsp;Olivier Bahn ,&nbsp;Robert H. Beach ,&nbsp;Matthew Binsted ,&nbsp;Geoffrey Blanford ,&nbsp;Yongxia Cai ,&nbsp;Francisco De La Chesnaye ,&nbsp;James A. Edmonds ,&nbsp;Leonard Göke ,&nbsp;Chioke Harris ,&nbsp;Christopher Hoehne ,&nbsp;Gyungwon J. Kim ,&nbsp;Page Kyle ,&nbsp;Haewon McJeon ,&nbsp;Robbie Orvis ,&nbsp;Sharon Showalter ,&nbsp;Aditya Sinha ,&nbsp;Emma Starke ,&nbsp;Frances Wood","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100209","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100209","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Energy Modeling Forum 37 study is organized around carbon dioxide (CO₂) mitigation scenarios reaching net-zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 in the United States. This paper summarizes the potential contribution of bioenergy use in the electric power, transportation, industrial, and buildings sectors toward meeting that target based on model results. Thirteen modeling teams reported bioenergy consumption in the Reference and Net Zero scenarios. Consumption of bioenergy increased over time in the Reference scenario, from an average across models of 3.2 exajoules (EJ) in 2020 to 3.8 EJ in 2050. Average bioenergy consumption in 2050 increased further to 7.3 EJ in the Net Zero scenario. All scenarios that reach net-zero emissions required some form of carbon dioxide removal to offset emissions that are difficult to reduce. Carbon dioxide removal using bioenergy with CO₂ capture and storage (BECCS) varies widely across models, up to 1000 Mt CO₂ in 2050. Some models rely instead on direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), up to 2200 Mt CO₂, and others use a combination of BECCS and DACCS. Model results show a strong inverse relationship between the amounts of BECCS and DACCS deployed. All modeling teams assumed a carbon sink from land use, land use change, and forestry, further offsetting a portion of emissions from fossil fuels and industry that are expensive to eliminate. Bioenergy consumption in 2050 decreased by an average of 1.5 EJ across eight models in a Net Zero+ scenario relative to the Net Zero scenario, due in part to a lower equilibrium carbon price resulting from optimistic cost assumptions for all energy technologies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100209"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144723071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Employment risk for the global oil and gas sector in light of just transition policies","authors":"Chafai Maissa ,&nbsp;Chaouche Saloua-Nassima ,&nbsp;Raphael J. Heffron","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100208","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100208","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research focuses on the issue of employment which is one of the most important issues of the global just transition to a low-carbon economy. Through a quantitative assessment of the top-100 global oil and gas companies, the results advance that inaction on achieving the just transition will result in increased employment risk, i.e., job losses. The objective of this research was to explore whether company inaction on climate and low-carbon energy strategies will lead to job losses within their firms. The method adopted here is hierarchical clustering on principal components whereby these companies can be grouped together from an economic and regional perspective and assessed in terms of their employment risk. The results indicate that there is significant employment risk should companies continue on their current pathways. Latin America and the Caribbean have the highest risk of job loss, while workers in Europe and Central Asia have a lower risk. This research will allow oil and gas policymakers and decisionmakers to begin making strategic decisions around the area of employment risk. Further, it should encourage new corporate and climate strategy perspectives for responding to the challenges of the global just transition. Finally, it can improve just outcomes for society such as the UN SDG No 8 on decent work and economic growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100208"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144654521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying hydrogen technology acceptance: Insights from Bayesian networks","authors":"Daniel Z. Herr ,&nbsp;Mitchell Scovell ,&nbsp;Nikolai Kinaev ,&nbsp;Radislav Vaisman","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100201","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100201","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Traditional social science analyses often emphasise qualitative explanations, limiting the integration of insights into quantitative frameworks, which constrains predictive analysis and rigorous theoretical testing. We address this gap by showing how causal inference methods, specifically Bayesian networks, can strengthen technology acceptance theories through an explicit representation of hypothesised structural dependencies. This approach enables the principled exploration of hypothetical interventions (even in contexts with scarce data) by leveraging information in the parametrised network and adhering to a theoretically informed process called the do-calculus. We demonstrate the approach by examining hydrogen hub acceptance using survey data from 1682 Australian residents who were asked about hosting a hub in their communities. The resulting Bayesian network outperforms eight widely used structure-agnostic machine learning algorithms in predictive accuracy and identifies the strong causal influence of perceived risk and economic benefit on hub acceptance. By simulating ‘what-if’ interventions, the model delivers quantitative decision support under uncertainty, informing policy design and communication strategies for hydrogen-technology projects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100201"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144654520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Factors affecting solar levelized cost of electricity in India & policy recommendations","authors":"Gaurav Singh Rana,&nbsp;Rajeev Jindal","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100207","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100207","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over the last decade, a significant decline in global solar photovoltaic (PV) levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) has been noted, instrumental in the solar sector’s rapid growth while maintaining competitiveness with conventional resources. Similar trends in the decline of solar PV LCOE have been observed in India; however, despite importing major components required for solar PV plants, India’s solar LCOE not only declined but also stayed lower and competitive with major solar PV module manufacturing countries like China’s solar LCOE. This study attempts to identify the elements that contributed to the decline in solar PV LCOE in India and highlight why India’s solar LCOE continues to be the lowest compared to other nations. Further, this paper suggests policies for maintaining accelerated solar growth while ensuring competitive solar LCOE in the context of rising energy demand and economic development. The paper's findings are crucial for shaping India’s solar energy policies, ensuring sustainable growth, and achieving energy security, potentially serving as a model for other developing nations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100207"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144587672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}