Energy and climate change最新文献

{"title":"Comparing green hydrogen and green ammonia as energy carriers in utility-scale transport and subsurface storage","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100163","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100163","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many of the challenges associated with utility-scale hydrogen transport and storage relate to its low density, high diffusivity, and the risk of hydrogen embrittlement, motivating consideration to integrating ammonia as an energy carrier. Compared to hydrogen, ammonia is more compatible with pipeline materials and delivers energy at higher density. Ammonia is also a mature industry with a greater extent of established pipeline networks and regulations that may accelerate hydrogen transitions and penetration in energy grids. However, converting hydrogen produced by renewable-driven electrolysis into ammonia (and back to hydrogen, depending on end use) complicates logistics, and associated energy and resource demands may offset the green hydrogen's carbon neutrality. This work outlines core considerations for the use of hydrogen vs. ammonia during transport and storage operations, with an emphasis on green hydrogen or green ammonia pathways coupled to pipeline transport and underground storage. We compare tradeoffs in pipeline infrastructure and operations; subsurface storage options; and project economics. We also evaluate round-trip efficiencies (RTE) for both pathways, which indicate that hydrogen is more attractive from an energy efficiency perspective for hydrogen end-use applications due to the efficiency penalties of initial ammonia synthesis and subsequent cracking, but RTE's for ammonia transport and storage are comparable to hydrogen for direct use or ammonia-to-power systems. The tradeoffs presented in this work would need to be considered on a case-by-case basis, but indicate that selective use of ammonia as an energy-dense hydrogen carrier could support decarbonization goals in industry and hydrogen economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142539434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global trade of green iron as a game changer for a near-zero global steel industry? - A scenario-based assessment of regionalized impacts","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100161","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100161","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The currently most promising approach for reducing CO₂ emissions of the global steel production is reducing iron ore in shaft furnaces with (green) hydrogen instead of blast furnaces. Unlike to the liquid iron produced in blast furnaces, the direct reduced iron produced in this route (green iron) exists in a solid state and can be transported at reasonable costs over long distances. This allows for spatial decoupling of the iron reduction step from the steelmaking step and may lead to global trade in green iron as a new intermediate product in the steelmaking value chain. This article assesses the potential impact of a global green iron trade in terms of shifting energy demand between regions and in terms of cost savings by comparing three scenarios for a global near-zero GHG steel industry: The Domestic scenario, assuming strict regional co-location of green iron and steel production; The Max Trade scenario, assuming early emergence of a global green iron market and the Intermediate Trade scenario, assuming late emergence of a global green iron market. In the trade scenarios, 12-21% of global crude steel is produced from traded green iron in 2050. 15-26 Mt/a of hydrogen consumption is relocated to global “sweet spots”, resulting in cost savings of 2.2-3.9% of the global annual steel production costs, which can provide important support for the development of net zero steel production. Enablers and barriers for global green iron trade are discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142418079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Strategic approach to accelerating regional bioenergy development: Bioelectricity for emission reduction and sustainability","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100162","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100162","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The western Himalayas hold significant potential for generating bioelectricity from dry pine needle biomass. This approach provides multiple benefits, including forest fire prevention, electricity generation, and emission reduction. However, despite these advantages, the growth of this sector has fallen short of expectations. The projected electricity generation potential from pine needle biomass in this region could lead to a significant annual emission reduction of 1.7 MtCO₂e through forest fire prevention and an additional 0.49 MtCO₂e by displacing carbon-intensive grid electricity. Regional bioenergy development plays a crucial role in the global energy transition and aligns with SDG 13, \"Climate Action,\" and SDG 7, \"Affordable and Clean Energy.\" By focusing on bioenergy as a renewable and accessible energy source, local and regional communities can contribute to climate action while simultaneously ensuring affordable and clean energy for their communities. Therefore, this paper employs a hybrid SWOT-AHP analysis as a strategic planning tool to achieve emission reduction targets by stimulating regional bioenergy growth. Twenty-nine SWOT factors were identified under four variables, and then the AHP technique was employed to assign priority weights to both SWOT variables and factors. Combining SWOT with AHP analysis provides quantitatively determined priorities for the factors, enabling their objective comparison. Eventually, this study offers a comprehensive perspective that leads to policy recommendations and serves as a valuable resource for relevant stakeholders, policymakers, and researchers seeking to achieve emission reduction goals through bioelectricity generation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142418078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of the pulp and paper industry in achieving net zero U.S. CO2 emissions in 2050","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100160","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100160","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The pulp and paper industry is energy-intensive, making up about 9 % of total United States industrial energy consumption and 2.5 % of U.S. industrial greenhouse gas emissions. The pulp and paper industry is unique among industrial sectors due to its existing reliance on waste biomass to generate energy for mill operations. Pulp and paper mills could theoretically offer opportunities for negative emissions through carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies along with use of biomass. In addition, the paper sector's use of low-temperature industrial heat creates opportunities for CO₂ reductions through electrification technologies.</div><div>We employ the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to evaluate decarbonization pathways for the pulp and paper sector in the United States, as well as the sector's role in a net zero scenario and impacts on the energy, land, and water sectors. The version of GCAM used in this study includes detailed representation of major industrial sectors, including the pulp and paper industry. Representation of the linkage between forest products and paper production allow us to account for upstream carbon emissions, sequestration, and land-use impacts.</div><div>Preliminary results under a pathway to net zero U.S. CO₂ emissions in 2050 show that the pulp and paper industry can reach net zero CO₂ emissions before 2050, earlier than the overall energy system, and contribute negative emissions thereafter. Use of fossil fuels is significantly reduced by 2050, shifting to increased electricity use in process heat generation. Consumption of biomass energy in process heat also increases compared to the reference scenario. Though paper production decreases in the policy scenario in response to higher prices of wood products, a high carbon price can incentivize increased use of biomass with CCS and thus paper production. Negative emissions opportunities in the paper industry have impacts on the land sector. Increasing use of biomass accelerates the shift from unmanaged to managed forests, with associated tradeoffs between technological carbon sequestration and natural ecosystem services.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142418077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring attitudes and behavioral patterns in residential energy consumption: Data-driven by a machine learning approach","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100158","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100158","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The present study focuses on two main objectives: firstly, to clarify the mechanisms by which attitudes impact behavioral changes related to household energy consumption, and secondly, to offer valuable insights to enhance the understanding of residential energy usage through a novel technique called Support Vector Regression (SVR). This method employs several feature space transformations to convert nNar relationships into linear ones. The results highlight the crucial role of psychological factors in determining energy consumption behaviors, demonstrating that cognitive factors significantly influence attitudes and behavioral patterns. The findings show that psychological variables have a major role in determining how people consume energy, with cognitive variables having a particularly large impact on attitudes and behavior patterns. Our findings demonstrate the superior performance of Support Vector Regression (SVR) with radial basis function kernels over traditional predictive models, with a prediction accuracy of 93.7 % for changes in behavior patterns (CHP) and 94.4 % for changes in attitudes (CHA). These results highlight the value of applying cutting-edge machine-learning approaches to create precise models for comprehending and directing energy-saving actions. The policy implications suggest that reducing cognitive barriers can significantly encourage energy-saving behaviors and contribute to a comprehensive approach for energy-efficiency initiatives</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142270568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon management technology pathways for reaching a U.S. Economy-Wide net-Zero emissions goal","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100154","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100154","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Carbon Management Study Group of the 37^th Energy Modeling Forum (EMF 37) designed seven scenarios to explore the role of three potentially key technology suites – point source carbon dioxide capture and storage (PSCCS), direct air capture of carbon dioxide (DACCS), and hydrogen systems (H₂) – in shaping the broader technology pathways to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in United States by 2050. Each scenario was run by up to 13 models participating in the EMF 37 study. Results show that carbon dioxide removal technologies were consistently a major part of successful pathways to net-zero U.S. CO₂ emissions in 2050. Achieving this net-zero CO₂ goal without any form of carbon dioxide capture and storage was found to be impossible for most models; some models also found it impossible to reach net-zero without DACCS. The marginal cost of achieving net-zero CO₂ emissions in 2050 was between two and 10 times higher without PSCCS and/or DACCS available. The carbon price at which DACCS was deployed as a backstop technology depended upon the assumed cost at which DACCS was available at scale. Carbon prices were between $250 and $500 per ton CO₂ when DACCS deployed as a backstop. The average CO₂ capture rate across all models in 2050 in the central net-zero scenario was 1.3 GtCO₂/year, which implies a substantial upscaling of capacity to move and store CO₂. Hydrogen sensitivity scenarios showed that H₂ typically constituted a relatively small share of the overall U.S. energy system; however, H₂ deployed in applications that are considered hard to decarbonize, facilitating transition towards net-zero emissions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142270569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling hydrogen markets: Energy system model development status and decarbonization scenario results","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100153","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100153","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hydrogen can be used as an energy carrier and chemical feedstock to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially in difficult-to-decarbonize markets such as medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation and maritime, iron and steel, and the production of fuels and chemicals. Significant literature has been accumulated on engineering-based assessments of various hydrogen technologies, and real-world projects are validating technology performance at larger scales and for low-carbon supply chains. While energy system models continue to be updated to track this progress, many are currently limited in their representation of hydrogen, and as a group they tend to generate highly variable results under decarbonization constraints. The present work provides insights into the development status and decarbonization scenario results of 15 energy system models participating in study 37 of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF37), focusing on the U.S. energy system. The models and scenario results vary widely in multiple respects: hydrogen technology representation, scope and type of hydrogen end-use markets, relative optimism of hydrogen technology input assumptions, and market uptake results reported for 2050 under various decarbonization assumptions. Most models report hydrogen market uptake increasing with decarbonization constraints, though some models report high carbon prices being required to achieve these increases and some find hydrogen does not compete well when assuming optimistic assumptions for all advanced decarbonization technologies. Across various scenarios, hydrogen market success tends to have an inverse relationship to success with direct air capture (DAC) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. While most model-scenario combinations predict modest hydrogen uptake by 2050 – &lt;10 million metric tons (MMT) – aggregating the top 10 % of market uptake results across sectors suggests an upper range demand potential of 42–223 MMT. The high degree of variability across both modeling methods and market uptake results suggests that increased harmonization of both input assumptions and subsector competition scope would lead to more consistent results across energy system models. The wide variability in results indicates strongly divergent conclusions on the role of hydrogen in a decarbonized energy future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142323661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Operationalisation of low-carbon energy for sustainable agricultural production among smallholder women farmers in Nigeria","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100159","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100159","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The use of high-carbon energy (HCE) causes adverse effects on the environment and sustainable food production. Yet, low-carbon energy (LCE) use among women farmers is missing in the literature. Therefore, this study investigates the operationalization of LCE use for sustainable agricultural production among smallholder women farmers in Nigeria. Data collected from randomly selected 350 women farmers were analysed using descriptive statistics, <em>t</em>-tests, and an economics cost model. The results revealed that the women farmers were aware of LCE and used LCE for drying farm output, lighting and heating pens. The average cost of ownership and installation of LCE (solar power systems) by women farmers was <del>N</del>500,000 (USD 510.20) while the cost of ownership/installation of generators was <del>N</del>210,000 (USD 214.29). In the first period, the cost of installing the solar system was higher than that of installing fossil generators by the HCE users. The economic cost model showed that the LCE remained at <del>N</del>500,000 (USD 510.20) while HCE was put at <del>N</del>1,250,000 (USD 1,275.51) in the fifth year. The output of the LCE user (7,108.47 kg) was significantly higher than the users of HCE (4,446.84 kg). In the same vein, users of LCE had a higher income of <del>N</del>1,246,536 (USD 1,271.98) than the users of HCE with an average income of <del>N</del>941,232 (USD 960.44). Thus, the use of LCE is not only for a sustainable environment but also for sustainable production and income. Therefore, this study calls for the promotion of the use of LCE to have a sustainable and productive farming enterprise.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142229660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can energy transition interventions promote financial inclusion? Measuring unintended effects of Ghana's energy transition program","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100157","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100157","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Global concerns about climate change and its effects and the quest for sustainable development have necessitated policy actions, including energy interventions. Besides the intended goal of energy transition, these interventions often have unintended impacts, which ought to be measured when assessing the overall effects of these energy interventions. This study investigated the impact of a clean cooking fuel transition program in Ghana on financial inclusion. It used a cross-sectional survey of over 900 households in two districts in Ghana where a clean energy transition intervention had been implemented. The study employed linear probability and matching techniques and found that clean energy interventions can promote financial inclusion among beneficiary households. The probability of being significantly associated with financial inclusion is at least 6.6% higher for treated households than it is for households that did not benefit from the program. The findings are robust across different outcome variables and the potential transmission mechanisms are discussed. The study provides evidence for policymakers to count the effect of financial inclusion in measuring the program's overall impact. Furthermore, the findings underscore the need for policies that provide the needed infrastructure and financial ‘ecosystem’ to support financial inclusion, particularly in rural areas where the energy interventions are implemented.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666278724000333/pdfft?md5=6368677d6dd2801698a991af176f5841&pid=1-s2.0-S2666278724000333-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142239998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is energy planning consistent with climate goals? Assessing future emissions from power plants in Latin America and the Caribbean","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100151","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100151","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Ten Latin American and Caribbean countries have pledged to achieve carbon neutrality since 2019. We assess whether electricity planning in the region has evolved towards reaching this goal. We compare power generation capacity in 2023 with announced plans in 2019. We then estimate committed emissions from existing and planned power plants – emissions that would result from the normal operation of these plants during their typical lifetime – and compare them to emissions from power generation in published IPCC scenarios. We find that fossil fuel planned capacity has decreased by 47 % since 2019, compared to an increase of 24 % of planned renewable power plants. Countries with net-zero pledges tended to cancel more fossil fuel power capacity. But existing plants in the region will emit 6.7 GtCO₂ during their lifespan, and if all planned fossil fuel plants are built, they will add 4.9 GtCO₂. The total 11.6 GtCO₂ emissions exceeds median carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C-consistent IPCC pathways (2.3 and 4.3 GtCO₂). Natural gas power plants are the largest contributor to existing (62 %) and planned (75 %) emissions. We evaluate emissions reduction strategies to achieve carbon budgets. Assuming no new coal plants come into operation, announced gas and oil projects are canceled at the same rate as in the past four years, all fossil fueled plant lifetimes are reduced by 10 years, and all new natural gas displaces existing coal, committed emissions fall by 67 %, meeting the median 2 °C budget, but still falling short of the median 1.5 °C budget. While progress is being made, energy planning in the region is not yet consistent with global climate goals as reflected by IPCC scenarios.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142167501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}