Energy and climate change最新文献

{"title":"Is the industrial sector hard to decarbonize or hard to model? A comparative analysis of industrial modeling and net zero carbon dioxide pathways","authors":"P. Ozge Kaplan ,&nbsp;Gale Boyd ,&nbsp;Morgan Browning ,&nbsp;Kelly Perl ,&nbsp;Sarang Supekar ,&nbsp;Nadejda Victor ,&nbsp;Ernst Worrell","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100190","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100190","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the results of the Energy Modeling Forum Study 37 on Deep Decarbonization &amp; High Electrification Scenarios for North America (EMF 37), with specific focus on industrial decarbonization pathways. Broadly, industrial decarbonization can be delivered through a wide range of actions such as energy efficiency, circular economy, electrification, low-carbon fuels, feedstocks, and energy sources, and carbon capture utilization and sequestration (CCUS). Remaining positive emissions in the energy system can be offset by carbon dioxide removal (CDR). The extent to which these options are, or are not, included in the models will impact the extent to which industrial decarbonization is projected to contribute to achieving an economy-wide net-zero climate policy. If adequate actions and technological levers are included in the model structure, but are more expensive than other options, in particular CCUS and CDR, then projected industry emissions reductions play a smaller role in meeting a net-zero constraint. The distinction between “hard to decarbonize” and “hard to model” has significant policy implications. If industry is hard to decarbonize, policies should focus on innovative and cost-effective industrial technologies, CDR, or both. If industry is hard to model, there may be overlooked opportunities for decarbonization that require further exploration. There is no consensus across the models in the study regarding both the level of decarbonization that could be achieved in industry or the pathways to achieve it. We caution against drawing conclusions solely from existing models and recommend rigorous and coordinated modeling efforts to better capture industrial innovation and decarbonization strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100190"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143886001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating the energy transition for Kuwait: Modeling Kuwait’s energy future and decarbonization challenges","authors":"Yousef M. Al-Abdullah,&nbsp;Yousef S. Al-Qattan,&nbsp;K.J. Sreekanth,&nbsp;Osamah Alsayegh","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100189","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100189","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The energy transition for Kuwait, deeply reliant upon oil exports, poses complex challenges while offering potential opportunities. Renewable energy and small modular reactors (SMRs) offer the potential to diversify energy sources, reduce emissions, and enhance energy security. This study examines how various energy technologies—nuclear power, renewables, carbon capture, and desalination—could interact to meet future energy and environmental goals. The benefits of incorporating SMRs for both power generation and desalination, simultaneously addressing Kuwait's energy and water needs while supporting carbon emission reduction efforts, are examined. To simulate Kuwait's energy future, this study employed the MESSAGE model to evaluate scenarios ranging from Kuwait’s existing policy of pure fossil fuel reliance to ambitious carbon reduction. Results indicate that investments in renewable energy and SMRs offer significant long-term economic and environmental advantages, although initial costs are higher compared to continued reliance on fossil fuels. Kuwait must align its energy policies with its sustainability goals while balancing economic, social, and environmental impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100189"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143886000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Socio-technical feasibility of coal transitions in India: Results from stakeholder interviews","authors":"Udayan Singh ,&nbsp;Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan ,&nbsp;Amit Garg ,&nbsp;Ajay K. Singh ,&nbsp;Srinath Haran Iyer","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100188","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100188","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Strategizing development-led energy transitions for India would need considerable stakeholder inputs for improved decision-making. While modeling exercises have largely been used for research and policymaking, an increasing need is felt to validate underlying assumptions and model findings based on views of important stakeholders. Particularly, for the coal sector, these stakeholders are present throughout the value chain: mining, end-use (power and industry), regulatory agencies, transport and advocacy. This paper summarizes the key findings of our interviews with <em>n</em> = 21 stakeholders across these sectors focusing on evolving coal use, underlying technologies and socio-technical features of this transition. Based on this exercise, interviewed experts largely believe that coal use would continue for the next two decades in the interest of energy security and energy affordability to the consumer. At the same time, they also acknowledged the reduced costs of solar, which makes it a key player in the analysis. We also notice an improved perception of carbon management technologies. Particularly, CO₂ utilization to produce methanol and urea are seen as potential winners as these approaches could facilitate lower imports of petroleum and natural gas products. Geologic CO₂ storage is still somewhat impeded by technical limitations and lack of global exemplars. Other approaches such as recovery of methane from gassy coal mines and biomass co-firing are seen as important but limited in potential. Most stakeholders also pointed to the need for averting job losses in the coal value-chain, which may not necessarily be made up by renewables.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100188"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143845076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Distributional implications of carbon taxation policy in Indonesia","authors":"Aldy Darwili,&nbsp;Servaas Storm ,&nbsp;Enno Schröder","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100186","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100186","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We combine the Environmentally-Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output (EE MRIO) analysis with a microsimulation analysis to estimate the distributional implications of carbon policy reform, a combination of carbon tax and revenue recycling initiatives, on households in Indonesia. We consider two relevant scenarios: an “economy-wide” carbon tax versus an “electricity-only” carbon tax. The impact of carbon policy reform is measured by the net impact of carbon tax and cash transfer relative to initial expenditure. Carbon policy reform in Indonesia tends to be progressive, meaning the relative net impact on households decreases as income increases. Carbon tax in Indonesia primarily affects households through the price increase in electricity and fuel products. The distributional impacts of a carbon policy reform are determined more by the percentage of tax revenue recycled and taxation scenario and less by the tax rate. In order to protect the poorest 40 % of Indonesian households from inflationary pressure, the Indonesian government needs to recycle 25 % of tax revenue.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100186"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143816766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change exposure, oil price uncertainty, and managerial ownership: Insights from textual analysis","authors":"Viput Ongsakul ,&nbsp;Pornsit Jiraporn ,&nbsp;Pandej Chintrakarn ,&nbsp;Pattanaporn Chatjuthamard","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100187","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100187","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the impact of oil price uncertainty on firm-specific climate change exposure, with a focus on the moderating role of managerial ownership. Using a comprehensive dataset generated from sophisticated textual analysis of conference earnings calls, we find that oil price uncertainty significantly increases overall climate change exposure, with managerial ownership playing a crucial moderating role. Firms with higher managerial ownership demonstrate reduced regulatory risks and enhanced new business opportunities in response to oil price volatility. Moreover, we explore how the effect of oil price uncertainty on climate change exposure evolves over time and find that the strength of this effect remains stable. These results highlight the importance of aligning managerial incentives with long-term sustainability goals to mitigate climate risks and capitalize on emerging opportunities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100187"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143859364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the Impact of Energy Transition Initiatives on the Policy Cost of Saudi Arabia's Net-Zero Ambition","authors":"Raphael Apeaning ,&nbsp;Puneet Kamboj ,&nbsp;Mohamad Hejazi ,&nbsp;Yang Qiu ,&nbsp;Page Kyle ,&nbsp;Gokul Iyer","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100184","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100184","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Saudi Arabia's ambitious goal to achieve a net-zero economy by 2060 offers a unique opportunity to diversify away from fossil fuels while fostering long-term economic resilience and sustainability. Crucial to this transition are energy policies that guide the Kingdom from a fossil fuel-based economy toward carbon neutrality. This study uses GCAM-KSA, a multi-sectoral integrated assessment model tailored to Saudi Arabia's economic and energy systems, to evaluate the impact of early energy transition initiatives on the policy costs of achieving the Kingdom's net-zero target. These initiatives include ongoing and proposed energy efficiency measures, renewable energy deployment, and fuel displacement targets. The study highlights that early implementation of these initiatives can significantly reduce barriers to adopting low-carbon technologies, ultimately lowering the economic burden of achieving the net-zero goal. Compared to a delayed implementation scenario, early action reduces long-term policy costs by 38–72% over the period from 2025 to 2060, driven by accelerated energy system transformation. These findings provide valuable insights into how Saudi Arabia's energy policies can mitigate economic challenges, promote economic diversification, and contribute to global emission reductions, reinforcing the Kingdom's transition to a sustainable net-zero economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100184"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143704155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effects of public deliberation on attitude change toward net-zero pathway: Generational differences in Taiwan","authors":"Mei-Fang Fan ,&nbsp;Alice Siu","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100183","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100183","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Deliberative democracy researchers argue that democratic deliberation is the key to addressing problems posed by polarisation and post-truth politics. Decarbonisation toward net zero has become a key topic of public deliberation worldwide in the face of our climate emergency. This article explores generational differences in the effects of deliberation on changes in attitudes toward policies. The empirical analysis conducted in the present study was based on a nationwide online deliberation polling experiment in which a random sample of 91 citizens was gathered in July 2022 to deliberate on Taiwan's pathway to net-zero emissions with consideration of social divisions and barriers to the implementation of long-term energy policies. The findings revealed that deliberation resulted in significant increases in the feasibility of the 2050 Net-Zero Pathway and the support of citizens for several policy proposals, such as the target of 60–70 % renewable energy in the energy mix. The effects of deliberation on changes in attitudes toward certain policy proposals between two generations (aged &lt;40 years and &gt;41 years) varied significantly. The results showed five ways of generational policy attitude change. These findings suggest that public deliberation promotes knowledge expansion, collective learning, and reflection on Taiwan's Net-Zero Pathway plan.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100183"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143593065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"US economy-wide decarbonization: Sectoral and distributional impacts","authors":"Jonathon Becker ,&nbsp;Maxwell Brown ,&nbsp;Morgan Browning ,&nbsp;Yongxia Cai ,&nbsp;Daden Goldfinger ,&nbsp;James McFarland ,&nbsp;Sergey Paltsev ,&nbsp;Shane Weisberg ,&nbsp;Mei Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100181","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100181","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the sectoral and distributional welfare impacts of reaching net-zero CO₂ emissions in the US by 2050. We simulate several net-zero projections using a CGE model linked with an electricity capacity expansion model to try to understand what a transition to net-zero might look like and the role played by different policies and technologies. Reaching net-zero leads to high carbon prices in 2045 and 2050, which drives deployment of direct air capture (DAC) technology. The electricity sector reaches negative emissions by 2050. Electrification is the predominant means for decarbonizing the buildings and transportation sectors, whereas industrial sectors are assumed to have limited electrification potential and prefer carbon management. The negative emissions in the power sector are primarily achieved through biomass-fired electricity generation with carbon capture and storage. In our scenarios, decarbonization is progressive (i.e., burden increases with income) due to our modeling assumption of lump-sum recycling of carbon permit revenues. In 2050, we find a break in the progressive trend when capital-intensive DAC technology enters, as permit revenue distributions that benefit the lowest income groups are directly substituted for returns to capital from DAC deployment that benefit the highest income groups. Our other non-CCS and non-DAC technology improvement cases in the buildings, transportation, and industrial sectors led to a more evenly distributed benefit across households as these mitigation channels are less capital intensive. When the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is included, the net-zero emissions limit does not bind as early, the need for DAC is reduced, and industrial CCS investment occurs earlier and in greater amounts. These effects highlight the importance of considering interactions between technologies, policies, and fiscal decisions when prescribing net-zero pathways around a distributional goal.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100181"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143593067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trust in scientists, researchers, and environmental organizations associated with policy support for energy transition","authors":"Runa R. Das ,&nbsp;Reuven Sussman ,&nbsp;Richard Carlson","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100179","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100179","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy transition, shifting away from fossil fuel use, is fundamental to addressing climate change. To explore public support for energy transition policies, we surveyed a representative sample of residents in Canada's largest province, Ontario, (<em>N</em> = 1620), and conducted regression analyses to examine how support varies with trust in the actors communicating these policies. Ontarians prefer ‘carrot’ policies—those offering direct benefits to households—over ‘stick’ policies. The most supported policies include the development of renewable natural gas, interest-free energy efficiency loan programs, and funding for low-income energy efficiency programs, while the least supported policies are a carbon tax, continued oil sands development, and the electrification of heating.</div><div>Ontarians have low to moderate levels of trust in governments at all levels, utilities, media, oil and gas companies, and to some extent in renewable energy companies. However they demonstrate consistently high trust in scientists, researchers, and non-profit organizations. Public support for policies in Ontario is influenced by trust in stakeholders and policymakers, with the relationship varying across different policies. We find Ontarians’ trust in scientists, researchers, and non-profit organizations is positively associated with supporting ‘emerging’ energy transition policies, such as the development of renewable natural gas and hydrogen.</div><div>Our findings suggest that policymakers seeking to advance energy transition policies can strengthen both effectiveness and public acceptance by engaging with trusted actors, such as scientists and non-profits, and leveraging their credibility. Furthermore, adopting inclusive and participatory planning processes that reflect public values and address equity concerns is crucial to fostering long-term trust and policy stability amidst the challenges of the energy transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100179"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"China's provincial renewable energy electricity consumption allocations for 2030: A study using the zero-sum gains data envelope analysis model","authors":"Lingling Mu,&nbsp;Jianping Wang,&nbsp;Yidan Gu","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100182","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100182","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ensuring grid stability and meeting emissions reduction goals hinge on the effective allocation of renewable energy electricity consumption. Guided by principles of fairness, efficiency, feasibility, and sustainability, this study crafted a holistic indicator system and employed the Zero-Sum Gains Data Envelope Analysis (ZSG-DEA) model to analyze China's provincial renewable electricity consumption allocations for 2030. The findings indicate that the initial renewable electricity allocation efficiency is already optimal in nine provinces, but falls below 0.5 in Shanxi, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia. However, after three iterations of the ZSG-DEA model, all regions attain optimal efficiency. Eastern coastal regions lead in renewable electricity consumption, exceeding 100 billion kWh, while certain provinces consume less than 70 billion kWh of non-hydroelectricity due to area size. Compared to the initial allocation, there is an observed increase in consumption of non-hydroelectricity in the eastern coastal regions. Conversely, iterative adjustments have led to a notable decrease of up to 40 % in the non-hydroelectricity allocated to regions with favorable wind and solar power generation conditions. It is recommended that regions with rapid economic growth and high electricity demand in China's east should be given priority for renewable electricity allocation. Additionally, it is suggested to improve the excess consumption trading market and the green certificate trading market to provide supplementary means to achieve renewable electricity consumption targets and optimize renewable electricity allocation efficiency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100182"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143621147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}