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Evolving electricity supply and demand to achieve net-zero emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 study 不断发展的电力供应和需求以实现净零排放:来自EMF-37研究的见解
IF 5.8
Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2025-05-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100196
Ruying Gao , Trieu Mai , Seyed Shahabeddin Mousavi , Charles Rossmann , Matthew Binsted , John Bistline , Geoff Blanford , Morgan Browning , Matthias Fripp , Patrick Lamers , Matteo Muratori , Sharon Showalter , John Weyant
{"title":"Evolving electricity supply and demand to achieve net-zero emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 study","authors":"Ruying Gao ,&nbsp;Trieu Mai ,&nbsp;Seyed Shahabeddin Mousavi ,&nbsp;Charles Rossmann ,&nbsp;Matthew Binsted ,&nbsp;John Bistline ,&nbsp;Geoff Blanford ,&nbsp;Morgan Browning ,&nbsp;Matthias Fripp ,&nbsp;Patrick Lamers ,&nbsp;Matteo Muratori ,&nbsp;Sharon Showalter ,&nbsp;John Weyant","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100196","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100196","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the role of electricity in achieving economy-wide net-zero CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by 2050 in the United States based on results from 17 models as part of the 37th Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37). In the study’s Net-Zero scenario, the models use diverse pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with gross energy-related residual emissions ranging from 17.2 to 66.6 % of 2020 levels. Electricity consistently emerges as central to achieving net-zero, with models projecting rapid electrification of end-uses and rapidly declining CO<sub>2</sub> intensity of electricity. However, the extent of electrification and the technology mix to decarbonize the power sector vary considerably across models. In the Net-Zero scenario, electricity is projected to evolve from ∼20 % of final energy in 2020 to 17–63 % in 2050 across the models driven by electrification in all sectors—buildings, industry, and transportation—and, to a lesser extent by direct air capture. By 2050, total electricity consumption increases by 24–176 % (relative to 2020), accompanied by significant expansion in renewable electricity production. Together, solar and wind generation grows by 175–834 %, supplying 45–90 % of total electricity in 2050, with wind achieving slightly higher shares than solar. Electricity storage technologies are deployed at scale to support wind and solar generation. The electricity generation mix varies across models: some project almost complete reliance on renewables, while others see a substantial role for natural gas, often with carbon capture and storage. This paper synthesizes the rich diversity of modeling approaches and results, highlighting differing views on how key drivers of electricity demand and supply might evolve.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100196"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143936168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Pathways for decarbonization of the buildings sector in Ukraine 乌克兰建筑部门脱碳的途径
IF 5.8
Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2025-05-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100195
Oleksandr Diachuk , Nazar Kholod , Roman Podolets , Neal Graham , Andrii Semeniuk , Meredydd Evans , Michael I. Westphal , Tanner Stelmach , Rachel Hoesly , Galyna Trypolska , Anastasiia Zagoruichyk
{"title":"Pathways for decarbonization of the buildings sector in Ukraine","authors":"Oleksandr Diachuk ,&nbsp;Nazar Kholod ,&nbsp;Roman Podolets ,&nbsp;Neal Graham ,&nbsp;Andrii Semeniuk ,&nbsp;Meredydd Evans ,&nbsp;Michael I. Westphal ,&nbsp;Tanner Stelmach ,&nbsp;Rachel Hoesly ,&nbsp;Galyna Trypolska ,&nbsp;Anastasiia Zagoruichyk","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100195","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100195","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper focuses on Ukraine’s intention to achieve a two-thirds reduction in buildings’ energy consumption for heating and cooling by 2050, concurrently aiming for net zero greenhouse gas emissions and heightened energy security. The study examines the outcomes of retrofitting existing residential, commercial, and public buildings with highly efficient materials, improving construction standards, and transitioning to advanced heating systems. However, Russia’s invasion in 2022 inflicted substantial damage, prompting a shift from retrofit and decarbonization to reconstruction. The Ukrainian government’s Reconstruction Plan emphasizes clean, sustainable, and resilient energy systems. The study employs energy system and integrated assessment models (TIMES-Ukraine and GCAM-Ukraine) to explore scenarios taking into consideration the war, reconstruction, and a net zero CO<sub>2</sub> pathway. Using two models allowed the inter-model comparison. The analysis addresses vital questions on energy resiliency measures and the compounding effects of decarbonization. Findings indicate that Ukraine’s energy goals can be met through strategic retrofitting and economy-wide decarbonization, emphasizing the importance of low-carbon alternatives like district heating with renewable sources. Electrification with renewables and fuel-switching emerges as crucial for achieving building decarbonization. The study offers valuable insights into navigating energy challenges amidst the war and outlines a pathway for Ukraine’s sustainable energy future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100195"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143918314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unpacking the determinants of emission intensity changes in Indonesia: A multiplicative structural decomposition approach 解开印尼排放强度变化的决定因素:一种乘法结构分解方法
IF 5.8
Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100194
Djoni Hartono , Sasmita Hastri Hastuti , Robi Kurniawan , Usep Surahman , Yulesta Putra , Hiroaki Shirakawa
{"title":"Unpacking the determinants of emission intensity changes in Indonesia: A multiplicative structural decomposition approach","authors":"Djoni Hartono ,&nbsp;Sasmita Hastri Hastuti ,&nbsp;Robi Kurniawan ,&nbsp;Usep Surahman ,&nbsp;Yulesta Putra ,&nbsp;Hiroaki Shirakawa","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100194","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100194","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Addressing the global warming crisis requires a deeper understanding of the factors influencing carbon emission intensity and the trends of major emitters. Indonesia, with its rapid economic growth and ambitious reduction targets, provides a case study for examining how national policies and structural shifts shape its carbon intensity. This paper analyzes the driving forces behind changes in Indonesia's emission intensity from 2010 to 2019, using multiplicative Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA). Specifically, it assesses the impact of emission intensity, Leontief structural change (shifts in inter-industry relationships), and final demand (changes in final consumption). Our findings reveal that while Indonesia’s Aggregate Emission Intensity (AEI) improved from 2010 to 2015, it worsened from 2015 to 2019. The electricity sector, a major contributor to AEI changes, showed significant efficiency gains in the latter period, likely due to cleaner energy initiatives introduced between 2014 and 2017. However, these gains were offset by rising electricity demand for both intermediate and final uses. Other high-impact sectors, such as non-metallic mineral products, also experienced increases in emission intensity. Further analysis highlights the role of household consumption in driving demand-side effects, particularly in sectors like electricity, electrical machinery, and air transportation. These results underscore the need for strengthened policies targeting efficiency improvements, renewable energy expansion, and demand management to achieve Indonesia's carbon reduction goals and support a sustainable energy transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100194"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143936167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A multi-model assessment of carbon neutrality pathways for Korea’s power sector 韩国电力部门碳中和路径的多模型评估
IF 5.8
Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2025-04-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100193
Cheolhung Cho , Jiyong Eom , Young-Hwan Ahn , Dong Gu Choi , Yohan Choi , Hanwoong Kim , Yong-Gun Kim , Hyeonjin Lee , Jineon Moon , Chan Park
{"title":"A multi-model assessment of carbon neutrality pathways for Korea’s power sector","authors":"Cheolhung Cho ,&nbsp;Jiyong Eom ,&nbsp;Young-Hwan Ahn ,&nbsp;Dong Gu Choi ,&nbsp;Yohan Choi ,&nbsp;Hanwoong Kim ,&nbsp;Yong-Gun Kim ,&nbsp;Hyeonjin Lee ,&nbsp;Jineon Moon ,&nbsp;Chan Park","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100193","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100193","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In October 2021, Korea announced its mid-century carbon mitigation target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, reaffirming its commitment by enhancing its 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). This study employs six energy-economic and integrated assessment models to explore net-zero emission pathways and strategies for Korea’s power sector, while assessing the associated costs and challenges. The findings underscore the complexity and urgency of this transition, with the power sector playing a pivotal role in balancing the dual challenges of rapidly growing electricity demand and full decarbonization. A shift toward a renewable-dominated power sector emerges as a robust strategy, though it poses unprecedented technological and economic challenges. Large-scale low-carbon technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear power, are identified as crucial solutions to reduce reliance on variable renewable energy sources and mitigate associated costs. Additionally, the study finds that current energy and climate policies are insufficient to meet the mid-century mitigation target, highlighting the urgent need for policy enhancements to bridge the gap and ensure the feasibility of Korea’s carbon neutrality goal.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100193"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143929354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A new scenario set for informing pathways to India’s next nationally determined contribution and 2070 net-zero target: structural reforms, LIFE, and sectoral pathways 为印度实现下一个国家自主贡献和2070年净零排放目标的途径设定了新的情景:结构改革、生命周期和部门途径
IF 5.8
Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100192
Pallavi Das , Vaibhav Chaturvedi , Joy Rajbanshi , Zaid Ahsan Khan , Satish Kumar , Akash Goenka
{"title":"A new scenario set for informing pathways to India’s next nationally determined contribution and 2070 net-zero target: structural reforms, LIFE, and sectoral pathways","authors":"Pallavi Das ,&nbsp;Vaibhav Chaturvedi ,&nbsp;Joy Rajbanshi ,&nbsp;Zaid Ahsan Khan ,&nbsp;Satish Kumar ,&nbsp;Akash Goenka","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100192","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100192","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>India announced 2070 as its net-zero target year at the 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) in 2021. The existing scenarios from India specific literature on 2070 net-zero, while very useful, mainly focus on alternative techno-economic pathways, power sector alone, and choice of peaking and net-zero years. But none of the existing scenarios go beyond the techno-economic and high-level GDP growth related uncertainties to a broader set of scenario underpinnings. Our study broadens the scenario set for India by assessing scenarios that have not till now been explored in India’s modelling literature, particularly in the context of the 2070 net-zero target. These include macroeconomic development (pathways related to urbanisation, manufacturing led economy, and urban rural inequity), energy efficiency, availability of low-carbon technology, structural reforms and behavioural change that determine future energy demand and emissions. We find that a high manufacturing share and high GDP growth rate in line with <em>‘Viksit Bharat’</em> would have the highest influence in terms of increasing India’s long-term energy use and emissions if industries continue to rely on fossil energy. We highlight that lifestyle changes and energy efficiency could have the largest impact in reduction of emissions in the long-term. Under a net-zero scenario however, power pricing reforms becomes a powerful tool for electrification of industrial energy use as well as higher penetration of rooftop solar in residential buildings as tariffs are rationalised, leading to savings in land and distribution losses among other benefits. We also present information on some relevant variables like emissions intensity of GDP and RE generation by 2035 to inform India’s upcoming 2035 NDC targets. We conclude by highlighting the criticality of complementary policies to reduce energy and electricity demand and associated land footprint for India, and the importance of a climate policy for India focusing directly on the high-level emissions pathway through a carbon market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100192"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144089596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts 净零排放的政策含义:美国排放和能源系统影响的多模型分析
IF 5.8
Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100191
John E.T. Bistline , Matthew Binsted , Geoffrey Blanford , Gale Boyd , Morgan Browning , Yongxia Cai , Jae Edmonds , Allen A. Fawcett , Jay Fuhrman , Ruying Gao , Chioke Harris , Christopher Hoehne , Gokul Iyer , Jeremiah X. Johnson , P. Ozge Kaplan , Dan Loughlin , Megan Mahajan , Trieu Mai , James R. McFarland , Haewon McJeon , Mei Yuan
{"title":"Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts","authors":"John E.T. Bistline ,&nbsp;Matthew Binsted ,&nbsp;Geoffrey Blanford ,&nbsp;Gale Boyd ,&nbsp;Morgan Browning ,&nbsp;Yongxia Cai ,&nbsp;Jae Edmonds ,&nbsp;Allen A. Fawcett ,&nbsp;Jay Fuhrman ,&nbsp;Ruying Gao ,&nbsp;Chioke Harris ,&nbsp;Christopher Hoehne ,&nbsp;Gokul Iyer ,&nbsp;Jeremiah X. Johnson ,&nbsp;P. Ozge Kaplan ,&nbsp;Dan Loughlin ,&nbsp;Megan Mahajan ,&nbsp;Trieu Mai ,&nbsp;James R. McFarland ,&nbsp;Haewon McJeon ,&nbsp;Mei Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100191","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100191","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. We investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO<sub>2</sub> emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO<sub>2</sub> targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO<sub>2</sub> emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100191"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143941002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is the industrial sector hard to decarbonize or hard to model? A comparative analysis of industrial modeling and net zero carbon dioxide pathways 工业部门是难以脱碳还是难以建模?工业模型与净零二氧化碳路径的比较分析
IF 5.8
Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100190
P. Ozge Kaplan , Gale Boyd , Morgan Browning , Kelly Perl , Sarang Supekar , Nadejda Victor , Ernst Worrell
{"title":"Is the industrial sector hard to decarbonize or hard to model? A comparative analysis of industrial modeling and net zero carbon dioxide pathways","authors":"P. Ozge Kaplan ,&nbsp;Gale Boyd ,&nbsp;Morgan Browning ,&nbsp;Kelly Perl ,&nbsp;Sarang Supekar ,&nbsp;Nadejda Victor ,&nbsp;Ernst Worrell","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100190","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100190","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the results of the Energy Modeling Forum Study 37 on Deep Decarbonization &amp; High Electrification Scenarios for North America (EMF 37), with specific focus on industrial decarbonization pathways. Broadly, industrial decarbonization can be delivered through a wide range of actions such as energy efficiency, circular economy, electrification, low-carbon fuels, feedstocks, and energy sources, and carbon capture utilization and sequestration (CCUS). Remaining positive emissions in the energy system can be offset by carbon dioxide removal (CDR). The extent to which these options are, or are not, included in the models will impact the extent to which industrial decarbonization is projected to contribute to achieving an economy-wide net-zero climate policy. If adequate actions and technological levers are included in the model structure, but are more expensive than other options, in particular CCUS and CDR, then projected industry emissions reductions play a smaller role in meeting a net-zero constraint. The distinction between “hard to decarbonize” and “hard to model” has significant policy implications. If industry is hard to decarbonize, policies should focus on innovative and cost-effective industrial technologies, CDR, or both. If industry is hard to model, there may be overlooked opportunities for decarbonization that require further exploration. There is no consensus across the models in the study regarding both the level of decarbonization that could be achieved in industry or the pathways to achieve it. We caution against drawing conclusions solely from existing models and recommend rigorous and coordinated modeling efforts to better capture industrial innovation and decarbonization strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100190"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143886001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluating the energy transition for Kuwait: Modeling Kuwait’s energy future and decarbonization challenges 评估科威特的能源转型:模拟科威特的能源未来和脱碳挑战
IF 5.8
Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100189
Yousef M. Al-Abdullah, Yousef S. Al-Qattan, K.J. Sreekanth, Osamah Alsayegh
{"title":"Evaluating the energy transition for Kuwait: Modeling Kuwait’s energy future and decarbonization challenges","authors":"Yousef M. Al-Abdullah,&nbsp;Yousef S. Al-Qattan,&nbsp;K.J. Sreekanth,&nbsp;Osamah Alsayegh","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100189","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100189","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The energy transition for Kuwait, deeply reliant upon oil exports, poses complex challenges while offering potential opportunities. Renewable energy and small modular reactors (SMRs) offer the potential to diversify energy sources, reduce emissions, and enhance energy security. This study examines how various energy technologies—nuclear power, renewables, carbon capture, and desalination—could interact to meet future energy and environmental goals. The benefits of incorporating SMRs for both power generation and desalination, simultaneously addressing Kuwait's energy and water needs while supporting carbon emission reduction efforts, are examined. To simulate Kuwait's energy future, this study employed the MESSAGE model to evaluate scenarios ranging from Kuwait’s existing policy of pure fossil fuel reliance to ambitious carbon reduction. Results indicate that investments in renewable energy and SMRs offer significant long-term economic and environmental advantages, although initial costs are higher compared to continued reliance on fossil fuels. Kuwait must align its energy policies with its sustainability goals while balancing economic, social, and environmental impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100189"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143886000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Socio-technical feasibility of coal transitions in India: Results from stakeholder interviews 印度煤炭转型的社会技术可行性:利益相关者访谈的结果
IF 5.8
Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2025-04-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100188
Udayan Singh , Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan , Amit Garg , Ajay K. Singh , Srinath Haran Iyer
{"title":"Socio-technical feasibility of coal transitions in India: Results from stakeholder interviews","authors":"Udayan Singh ,&nbsp;Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan ,&nbsp;Amit Garg ,&nbsp;Ajay K. Singh ,&nbsp;Srinath Haran Iyer","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100188","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100188","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Strategizing development-led energy transitions for India would need considerable stakeholder inputs for improved decision-making. While modeling exercises have largely been used for research and policymaking, an increasing need is felt to validate underlying assumptions and model findings based on views of important stakeholders. Particularly, for the coal sector, these stakeholders are present throughout the value chain: mining, end-use (power and industry), regulatory agencies, transport and advocacy. This paper summarizes the key findings of our interviews with <em>n</em> = 21 stakeholders across these sectors focusing on evolving coal use, underlying technologies and socio-technical features of this transition. Based on this exercise, interviewed experts largely believe that coal use would continue for the next two decades in the interest of energy security and energy affordability to the consumer. At the same time, they also acknowledged the reduced costs of solar, which makes it a key player in the analysis. We also notice an improved perception of carbon management technologies. Particularly, CO<sub>2</sub> utilization to produce methanol and urea are seen as potential winners as these approaches could facilitate lower imports of petroleum and natural gas products. Geologic CO<sub>2</sub> storage is still somewhat impeded by technical limitations and lack of global exemplars. Other approaches such as recovery of methane from gassy coal mines and biomass co-firing are seen as important but limited in potential. Most stakeholders also pointed to the need for averting job losses in the coal value-chain, which may not necessarily be made up by renewables.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100188"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143845076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Distributional implications of carbon taxation policy in Indonesia 印尼碳税政策的分配影响
IF 5.8
Energy and climate change Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100186
Aldy Darwili, Servaas Storm , Enno Schröder
{"title":"Distributional implications of carbon taxation policy in Indonesia","authors":"Aldy Darwili,&nbsp;Servaas Storm ,&nbsp;Enno Schröder","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100186","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100186","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We combine the Environmentally-Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output (EE MRIO) analysis with a microsimulation analysis to estimate the distributional implications of carbon policy reform, a combination of carbon tax and revenue recycling initiatives, on households in Indonesia. We consider two relevant scenarios: an “economy-wide” carbon tax versus an “electricity-only” carbon tax. The impact of carbon policy reform is measured by the net impact of carbon tax and cash transfer relative to initial expenditure. Carbon policy reform in Indonesia tends to be progressive, meaning the relative net impact on households decreases as income increases. Carbon tax in Indonesia primarily affects households through the price increase in electricity and fuel products. The distributional impacts of a carbon policy reform are determined more by the percentage of tax revenue recycled and taxation scenario and less by the tax rate. In order to protect the poorest 40 % of Indonesian households from inflationary pressure, the Indonesian government needs to recycle 25 % of tax revenue.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100186"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143816766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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