Energy and climate change最新文献

{"title":"Bioenergy pathways within United States net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study","authors":"Ronald D. Sands ,&nbsp;Liz Wachs ,&nbsp;Patrick Lamers ,&nbsp;Olivier Bahn ,&nbsp;Robert H. Beach ,&nbsp;Matthew Binsted ,&nbsp;Geoffrey Blanford ,&nbsp;Yongxia Cai ,&nbsp;Francisco De La Chesnaye ,&nbsp;James A. Edmonds ,&nbsp;Leonard Göke ,&nbsp;Chioke Harris ,&nbsp;Christopher Hoehne ,&nbsp;Gyungwon J. Kim ,&nbsp;Page Kyle ,&nbsp;Haewon McJeon ,&nbsp;Robbie Orvis ,&nbsp;Sharon Showalter ,&nbsp;Aditya Sinha ,&nbsp;Emma Starke ,&nbsp;Frances Wood","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100209","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100209","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Energy Modeling Forum 37 study is organized around carbon dioxide (CO₂) mitigation scenarios reaching net-zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 in the United States. This paper summarizes the potential contribution of bioenergy use in the electric power, transportation, industrial, and buildings sectors toward meeting that target based on model results. Thirteen modeling teams reported bioenergy consumption in the Reference and Net Zero scenarios. Consumption of bioenergy increased over time in the Reference scenario, from an average across models of 3.2 exajoules (EJ) in 2020 to 3.8 EJ in 2050. Average bioenergy consumption in 2050 increased further to 7.3 EJ in the Net Zero scenario. All scenarios that reach net-zero emissions required some form of carbon dioxide removal to offset emissions that are difficult to reduce. Carbon dioxide removal using bioenergy with CO₂ capture and storage (BECCS) varies widely across models, up to 1000 Mt CO₂ in 2050. Some models rely instead on direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), up to 2200 Mt CO₂, and others use a combination of BECCS and DACCS. Model results show a strong inverse relationship between the amounts of BECCS and DACCS deployed. All modeling teams assumed a carbon sink from land use, land use change, and forestry, further offsetting a portion of emissions from fossil fuels and industry that are expensive to eliminate. Bioenergy consumption in 2050 decreased by an average of 1.5 EJ across eight models in a Net Zero+ scenario relative to the Net Zero scenario, due in part to a lower equilibrium carbon price resulting from optimistic cost assumptions for all energy technologies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100209"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144723071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Employment risk for the global oil and gas sector in light of just transition policies","authors":"Chafai Maissa ,&nbsp;Chaouche Saloua-Nassima ,&nbsp;Raphael J. Heffron","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100208","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100208","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research focuses on the issue of employment which is one of the most important issues of the global just transition to a low-carbon economy. Through a quantitative assessment of the top-100 global oil and gas companies, the results advance that inaction on achieving the just transition will result in increased employment risk, i.e., job losses. The objective of this research was to explore whether company inaction on climate and low-carbon energy strategies will lead to job losses within their firms. The method adopted here is hierarchical clustering on principal components whereby these companies can be grouped together from an economic and regional perspective and assessed in terms of their employment risk. The results indicate that there is significant employment risk should companies continue on their current pathways. Latin America and the Caribbean have the highest risk of job loss, while workers in Europe and Central Asia have a lower risk. This research will allow oil and gas policymakers and decisionmakers to begin making strategic decisions around the area of employment risk. Further, it should encourage new corporate and climate strategy perspectives for responding to the challenges of the global just transition. Finally, it can improve just outcomes for society such as the UN SDG No 8 on decent work and economic growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100208"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144654521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying hydrogen technology acceptance: Insights from Bayesian networks","authors":"Daniel Z. Herr ,&nbsp;Mitchell Scovell ,&nbsp;Nikolai Kinaev ,&nbsp;Radislav Vaisman","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100201","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100201","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Traditional social science analyses often emphasise qualitative explanations, limiting the integration of insights into quantitative frameworks, which constrains predictive analysis and rigorous theoretical testing. We address this gap by showing how causal inference methods, specifically Bayesian networks, can strengthen technology acceptance theories through an explicit representation of hypothesised structural dependencies. This approach enables the principled exploration of hypothetical interventions (even in contexts with scarce data) by leveraging information in the parametrised network and adhering to a theoretically informed process called the do-calculus. We demonstrate the approach by examining hydrogen hub acceptance using survey data from 1682 Australian residents who were asked about hosting a hub in their communities. The resulting Bayesian network outperforms eight widely used structure-agnostic machine learning algorithms in predictive accuracy and identifies the strong causal influence of perceived risk and economic benefit on hub acceptance. By simulating ‘what-if’ interventions, the model delivers quantitative decision support under uncertainty, informing policy design and communication strategies for hydrogen-technology projects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100201"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144654520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Factors affecting solar levelized cost of electricity in India & policy recommendations","authors":"Gaurav Singh Rana,&nbsp;Rajeev Jindal","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100207","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100207","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over the last decade, a significant decline in global solar photovoltaic (PV) levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) has been noted, instrumental in the solar sector’s rapid growth while maintaining competitiveness with conventional resources. Similar trends in the decline of solar PV LCOE have been observed in India; however, despite importing major components required for solar PV plants, India’s solar LCOE not only declined but also stayed lower and competitive with major solar PV module manufacturing countries like China’s solar LCOE. This study attempts to identify the elements that contributed to the decline in solar PV LCOE in India and highlight why India’s solar LCOE continues to be the lowest compared to other nations. Further, this paper suggests policies for maintaining accelerated solar growth while ensuring competitive solar LCOE in the context of rising energy demand and economic development. The paper's findings are crucial for shaping India’s solar energy policies, ensuring sustainable growth, and achieving energy security, potentially serving as a model for other developing nations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100207"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144587672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Life cycle assessment of wind farm: A review on current status and future knowledge","authors":"Uttara Das,&nbsp;Champa Nandi","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100206","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100206","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With rising concerns over climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power has gained attention as a clean energy source. However, Wind Power Plants (WPPs) generate emissions throughout their life cycle, from raw material extraction to decommissioning. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a key tool for evaluating these environmental impacts. This paper reviews LCA studies of onshore and offshore WPPs, focusing on global warming potential (GWP) and energy payback time (EPBT) to assess their sustainability. Findings reveal that offshore WPPs generally exhibit higher GHG emissions due to complex installation and transportation but benefit from shorter EPBT due to higher wind speeds. Conversely, onshore WPPs have lower upfront emissions but experience longer EPBT due to variable wind conditions. The manufacturing and transportation phases contribute the highest emissions. Recycling and material optimization can reduce environmental impact by up to 30 %. Identified research gaps include data accuracy issues, limited offshore LCA studies, and lack of component-specific analyses. This study provides a pathway for optimizing wind power sustainability, emphasizing material efficiency, logistics improvements, and policy advancements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100206"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144605039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Robust pathway analysis of electricity investments under net-zero uncertainties","authors":"Erin Baker ,&nbsp;John Bistline ,&nbsp;Nexus Attiogbe","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100204","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100204","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Policy-makers and planners are looking to make robust power system investments under deep uncertainty and conflicting objectives. This paper presents a robust pathway approach to address a range of uncertainties and multiple objectives and provides a proof-of-concept applied to U.S. electric sector decisions under deep decarbonization. Results show the importance of considering a range of criteria: considering cost alone or CO₂ alone resulted in just two non-dominated pathways in each case; adding in the consideration of co-pollutants increased the number of non-dominated pathways to six of the nine considered. This analysis highlights the importance of considering fuel price uncertainty and, in particular, the possibility of high natural gas prices, which can lead to high co-pollution in otherwise low-polluting pathways. Results illustrate trade-offs between emissions and costs; as well as between CO₂ and co-pollutants, which is largely due to carbon removal use. The robust pathway framework is illustrative; we discuss how future work with harmonized multi-model outputs and spatially explicit pollutant metrics can provide additional insights.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100204"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144587671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decarbonizing the Dutch industrial sector: between maintaining domestic production and partial relocation","authors":"Ahmed M. Elberry ,&nbsp;Martin Scheepers ,&nbsp;Joost van Stralen ,&nbsp;Juan S. Giraldo ,&nbsp;Bob van der Zwaan","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100205","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100205","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Industry is one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonize in the Dutch energy system. This is due to several factors such as the difficulty in moving away from existing technologies and the availability of still relatively cheap natural gas. In this study, we introduce two scenarios to investigate possible energy transition pathways for the Dutch industrial sector. The first scenario focuses on keeping industrial production largely in the Netherlands. The second explores relocating part of it abroad to regions in which low–cost sustainable energy sources are available. We employ an energy system optimization model to analyze these scenarios. Our results for the first scenario show a reduction of about 80% in fossil fuel consumption by 2050 in the industrial sector, primarily achieved by substituting fossil fuels with hydrogen, bioenergy, and synthetic fuels. To achieve the carbon-neutrality target by 2050, a cumulative total of about 552 MtCO₂ needs to be captured from the industrial sector, with 52% utilized and the rest stored. The second scenario does not yield a large difference in the relative energy mix compared to the first. However, it results in substantial changes in terms of more rapid decarbonization, with less final energy consumption, lower investment costs, and more limited deployment of CO₂ capture technology. In both scenarios, a radical technological transformation of the industrial sector is necessary for reaching the energy system carbon-neutrality target, with industry contributing to this goal by achieving net-negative CO₂ emissions in 2050.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100205"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144563833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving energy access and environmental sustainability in small communities through hydrogen integration","authors":"Mostafa Mostafavi Sani,&nbsp;Hamid Afshari,&nbsp;Ahmed Saif","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100200","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100200","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Relying on renewable energy for small communities is challenging due to intermittency, while hydrogen offers a reliable, long-term storage solution. Yet, there are questions regarding the involvement of hydrogen in the optimal renewable energy configuration. This paper develops a tri-objective optimization model for the selection and capacity allocation of energy technologies to minimize the annual costs, minimize environmental impact, and maximize social utility for small communities. The model assesses the role of hydrogen in a hybrid renewable energy system to evaluate grid reliability, its contribution to global warming mitigation, and the distinctive dynamics associated with community size. Liverpool in Nova Scotia, Canada, was chosen as a case study due to its promise of renewable energy advancement and inconsistent grid access. The initial results suggest a set of technologies such as wind turbines, combined heat and power, organic Rankine cycle, and the grid. By extending the analysis to 2050, it is projected that the utilization of wind turbines and fuel cells will double, while grid connection becomes unnecessary as hydrogen technologies mature. The matured hydrogen scenario shows a 63% reduction in environmental impact and a 4% improvement in social utility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100200"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144518904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing decarbonization pathways for energy-intensive industries in Indonesia using TIMES optimization model","authors":"Primaldi Anugrah Utama ,&nbsp;Markus A. Gielbert ,&nbsp;Reviana Revitasari ,&nbsp;Nadhilah Reyseliani ,&nbsp;Widodo Wahyu Purwanto","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100202","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100202","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Decarbonization efforts in industrial sectors remain primarily focused in developed countries. However, developing countries, such as Indonesia, face critical challenges in decarbonizing energy-intensive industries, which are essential to economic growth. Key challenges include uncertainties regarding low-carbon technology options and high investment requirements, which imply additional production costs. This study aims to assess potential decarbonization pathways for the industrial sector and their impact on production costs. A bottom-up optimization approach, using the TIMES model, was employed to determine optimal technology pathways by minimizing production costs while achieving the targeted CO₂e emission intensity for each industry. The results indicate that an ambitious Net Zero Emission (NZE) scenario will reduce emissions from 466 MtCO₂e to 56 MtCO₂e by 2060. Energy efficiency contributes 8 %, new and renewable energy accounts for 37 %, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) plays a significant role, contributing 33 %. However, decarbonization efforts increase production costs in the cement, iron &amp; steel, paper, and petrochemical industries by 138 %, 58 %, 2 %, and 90 %, respectively. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers to balance environmental sustainability with economic growth, facilitating a smooth transition to a low-carbon economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100202"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144518903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Defining ‘abated’ fossil fuel and industrial process emissions","authors":"Christopher Bataille ,&nbsp;Alaa Al Khourdajie ,&nbsp;Heleen de Coninck ,&nbsp;Kiane de Kleijne ,&nbsp;Lars J. Nilsson ,&nbsp;Igor Bashmakov ,&nbsp;Steven J. Davis ,&nbsp;Paul S. Fennell","doi":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100203","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100203","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There is scientific consensus that limiting warming in line with the Paris Agreement goals requires reaching net zero CO₂ emissions by mid-century and net negative emissions thereafter. Because of the entrenchment of current fossil fuel energy and feedstock demand estimated in almost all global modelled scenarios, 'abated' fossil fuel and industrial process and product use (IPPU) CO₂ emissions, using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies to perform carbon management, are likely to be part of any transition. In addition to fossil fuel combustion, this will be primarily in cement &amp; lime kilns, chemical production, and possibly waste incineration and iron and steel making, in processes producing maximally concentrated CO₂ waste streams. Abated fossil fuel and IPPU CO₂ emissions in the context of recent commitments, however, requires consideration of capture rates for fuel processing and end-use, permanence of storage, reduction of upstream production and end-use fugitive methane, and sufficient means to sequester residual emissions. Based on an assessment of evolving CCS technologies in existing sectors and jurisdictions, criteria are proposed for defining a benchmark for 'abated' fossil fuel and IPPU emissions as where near 100 % GHG abatement is to be eventually achieved, with N₂O and fluorinated gases considered separately. This can be accomplished through: 1) CO₂ capture rates of more than or equal to 95 % of CO₂ emitted; 2) permanent storage of captured emissions; 3) reducing upstream and end-use fugitive methane emissions to &lt;0.5 % and towards 0.2 % of gas production &amp; an equivalent for coal; and 4) counterbalancing remaining emissions using permanent carbon dioxide removal. Application of these criteria to just steel and cement yields estimates of more than or equal to 1.37 Gt CO₂ per year reductions after all other reasonable and lower cost actions are taken. At the same time, we acknowledge the value of capture rates below 95 %, so as long they are designed to enable eventual full abatement through process learning. We also discuss commercialisation and deployment policy for CCS, highlighting the need to integrate these criteria into international climate agreements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":72914,"journal":{"name":"Energy and climate change","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100203"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144623812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}