Employment risk for the global oil and gas sector in light of just transition policies

Abstract

This research focuses on the issue of employment which is one of the most important issues of the global just transition to a low-carbon economy. Through a quantitative assessment of the top-100 global oil and gas companies, the results advance that inaction on achieving the just transition will result in increased employment risk, i.e., job losses. The objective of this research was to explore whether company inaction on climate and low-carbon energy strategies will lead to job losses within their firms. The method adopted here is hierarchical clustering on principal components whereby these companies can be grouped together from an economic and regional perspective and assessed in terms of their employment risk. The results indicate that there is significant employment risk should companies continue on their current pathways. Latin America and the Caribbean have the highest risk of job loss, while workers in Europe and Central Asia have a lower risk. This research will allow oil and gas policymakers and decisionmakers to begin making strategic decisions around the area of employment risk. Further, it should encourage new corporate and climate strategy perspectives for responding to the challenges of the global just transition. Finally, it can improve just outcomes for society such as the UN SDG No 8 on decent work and economic growth.